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 Post subject: November 9th Wednesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +4.00
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2011 11:48 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +4.00 points or $400 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=96&t=1051.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=145&t=1269

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Fall on Euro Exit Concern, Italy Yields

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks slumped, driving the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its biggest decline since August, amid concern that European leaders may be unable to keep the euro zone intact as Italian yields surged to a record.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Sentiment turned decidedly negative today, resulting in the stock market's worst single-session loss in about two months.

The threat of contagion caused market participants to pare risk today. Efforts were spurred primarily by the continual climb in Italy's debt yields, indicative of dwindling confidence in the country's ability to get a grip on precarious macro conditions. Market pundits have already made it known that Italy's economy is far too large to be aided by a bailout.

Market participants also continue to await the announcement of Greece's new prime minister, who is hoped to lead the country's reform efforts.

Few stocks were spared from the sell-off. Financials fell especially sharply. Their 5% loss came as various banks and financial services firms were pommeled for fear of their exposure to Europe.

Making the beatdown suffered by bank stocks look modest, online jewelry retailer Blue Nile (NILE 32.82, -15.99) lost about a third of its market cap after as traders reacted to disappointing earnings, mixed guidance, and negative analyst commentary.

In addition to broad market weakness, General Motors (GM 22.31, -2.73) and Macy's (M 30.45, -1.71) were undone by weak forecasts, which overshadowed positive earnings surprises from the pair.

Best Buy (BBY 27.22, +0.38) was one bright spot. It settled with a gain of more than 1%, making it one of the best individual performers in the broad market.

In the presence of fear-driven selling, the Volatility Index surged more than 30%. Prior its surge today, the "Fear Gauge" had ended lower for five straight sessions.

The aggressive selling and surge in volatility drove many traders to seek safety in the dollar, which rallied 1.6% against a collection of major currencies. Most of the greenback's gain came against the euro, which tumbled 2.0% to $1.355, a one-month low.

To little surprise, Treasuries also attracted buyers. That sent the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note back below 2.0%. Strength in the 10-year Note was briefly challenged following relatively lackluster auction results this afternoon, but it eventually reclaimed its gains.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Telecom -1.9%, Utilities -2.2%, Consumer Staples -2.3%, Health Care -2.8%, Consumer Discretionary -3.6%, Tech -3.6%, Industrials -3.8%, Energy -4.3%, Materials -4.7%, Financials -5.4%DJ30 -389.24 NASDAQ -105.84 NQ100 -3.6% R2K -4.8% SP400 -4.3% SP500 -46.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 327/2.14 bln/2238 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 284/1.11 bln/2771

3:30 pm : Crude oil settled lower by 1.1% at $95.74 per barrel. Futures rallied following this morning's inventory data, which showed a draw down versus expectations for a build. Despite trading into positive territory, and notching highs at $97.84, the continued weakness in equities and strength in the dollar proved too much for prices. Crude oil sold off back into negative territory to close at levels seen in overnight trade. Crude oil ended lower for the first time in six sessions. Natural gas ended lower by 2.4% at $3.65 per MMBtu. Futures put in session lows at $3.65 and chopped around those lows for a majority of the session.

It was a relatively quiet afternoon for precious metals. Gold prices shed 0.4% to close at $1791.60 per ounce, while silver prices ended down 2.2% at $34.36 per ounce. Both metals are adding to their losses in electronic trade.DJ30 -382.73 NASDAQ -101.17 SP500 -42.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 360/1.7 bln/2187 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 284/736.8 mln/2778

3:00 pm : Stocks appear to have stabilized, at least for the time being. Today's slide has spared few. In fact, declining share volume outnumbers advancing volume by almost 60-to-1 on the NYSE. More telling is that nearly 99% of the issues that make up the S&P 500 are in negative territory.

Often labeled the Fear Gauge, the Volatility Index has extended its surge amid this afternoon's selling. It is now up 30%. DJ30 -369.94 NASDAQ -97.18 SP500 -42.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 240/1.46 bln/2200 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 250/620 mln/2775

2:30 pm : The Dow is now down more than 400 points, but its percentage loss is actually slightly less severe than that of its counterparts. In fact, the 3.5% loss currently displayed by the S&P 500 is shaping up to be its worst one-day drop since a 4.4% decline in August.

The latest leg of losses likely comes as many traders move to further reduce risk as stocks struggle to work their way higher. In essence, selling has most likely perpetuated upon itself. DJ30 -409.44 NASDAQ -103.32 SP500 -46.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 360/1.30 bln/2165 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 245/545 mln/2775

2:00 pm : Sellers recently redoubled their efforts, sending stocks to new session lows. The slide has left the broad market facing a 3% loss, but financial continue to feel the worst of it all. As a group, financials are now down 4.4%.DJ30 -351.58 NASDAQ -88.04 SP500 -40.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 380/1.11 bln/2110 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 300/470 mln/2680

1:30 pm : Results from a $24 billion auction of 10-year Notes were released at 1:00 PM ET. Treasuries have turned lower in response to the results.

The auction drew a yield of 2.03% and produced a bid-to-cover of 2.64 and an indirect bidder participation rate of 41.6%. For comparison, the prior auction saw a bid-to-cover of 2.86 and an indirect bidder rate of 35.0%. An average of the last dozen auctions gives a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.10 and an indirect bidder rate of 48.3%. DJ30 -277.42 NASDAQ -71.56 SP500 -32.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 405/1.01 bln/2055 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 325/425 mln/2655

1:00 pm : Worries about what will prevail in Europe have stocks down sharply today. The sell-off has completely reversed gains achieved in each of the prior two advances.

Stocks climbed 2% during the course of the past two sessions, but sentiment has taken a decidedly negative turn as market participants assess conditions in Europe. As if Greece's woes weren't enough to stir specters of contagion, many have become alarmed by the difficulty Italy faces in shoring up its fiscal and financial conditions. Dwindling confidence in the country has caused yields on its debt to spike to record levels.

Domestic markets have responded by turning sharply lower. The slide has been broad based, taking all 10 major sectors into the red. Their losses range from the telecom sector's 1.0% decline to the financial sector's 3.2% loss.

Edginess among market participants and a renewed inclination to sell has stoked volatility, such that the Volatility Index has surged more than 15% after settling lower in each of the past five sessions.

In a flight to safety, traders have rotated into the dollar, which is up 1.3% against a collection of competing currencies. Most of that move has come against the euro, which is presently down 1.6% to $1.360.

Treasuries have also traded higher. The benchmark 10-year Note has been boasting a gain of about one full point all session, keeping its yield comfortably below 2.0%. Results from an auction of 10-year Notes are due at any moment. DJ30 -238.25 NASDAQ -61.40 SP500 -28.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 390/935 mln/2055 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 270/395 mln/2680

12:30 pm : Stocks have started to drift downward. Each major equity average now trades with a loss of 2% or more.

Amid the market's weakness, Treasuries have been sporting strong gains all session. That has kept the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note below 2.0% all day. Results from an auction of 10-year Notes are scheduled for release at the top of the hour. DJ30 -254.07 NASDAQ -67.84 SP500 -30.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 400/855 mln/2035 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 290/365 mln/2645

12:00 pm : The stock market's efforts to move higher have stalled a bit in recent trade. The loss of momentum has left the market to set adrift in a sideways crawl.

Oil has overcome weak sentiment to trade higher in the wake of the latest weekly inventory report, which was released this morning. Oil prices were down more than 1% in early pit trade, but are now up 0.7% to $97.50 per barrel.

Oil's bounce hasn't really helped the energy sector, however. Amid broad market weakness the energy sector is down 2.3%. DJ30 -210.36 NASDAQ -58.28 SP500 -25.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 405/755 mln/2015 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 280/325 mln/2640

11:30 am : Stocks have continued their climb up from session lows, but the broad market is still facing a loss of 2%.

Financials continue to suffer from the sharpest selling pressure, leaving the sector to wrestle with a 3.0% loss. Banks are bearing the bulk of that burden, resulting in a 3.4% loss for the KBW Bank Index.

Telecom is the only sector that has successfully trimmed its loss to less than 1%. It is now down a relatively tame 0.7%. The sector's efforts have been helped by Verizon (VZ 37.28, -0.24), which has almost halved its loss in the last hour. DJ30 -229.77 NASDAQ -61.51 SP500 -27.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 355/640 mln/2025 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 245/285 mln/2670

11:00 am : Stocks have slowly worked their way up from session lows, but weakness remains widespread. Amid the negativity of today's trade, the Volatility Index has spiked some 17% higher after settling lower in five straight sessions. It is still shy of its 10-day high, however.

Media reports have suggested that Greece is about to name its new prime minister. Yesterday it was indicated that Lucas Papademos was the favorite for the position, but more recent reports suggest that Philippos Petsalnikos is likely to be named to the role. The news hasn't done anything to help the euro; it is near its session low with a 1.7% loss against the greenback. DJ30 -243.70 NASDAQ -68.70 SP500 -28.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 275/480 mln/2075 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 180/220 mln/2700

10:35 am : Commodities are lower across this board this morning on the broad market weakness. The dollar index continues to trade near its session high, which continues to add selling pressure on commodities today.

Crude oil futures have been in the red all morning and was at $94.75/barrel just ahead of this morning's inventory data, just above the recently hit session low of $94.55/barrel. Following the data, which showed a draw of 1.37 million barrels versus consensus which called for a build of 0.5 mln barrels, crude oil ticked higher, pushing through the $95 area and is now down 1.4% at $95.48/barrel. Natural gas is down 1.4% at $3.79/MMBtu.

Gold is lower this morning as well, but is one of the best performing commodities this morning. Gold was back in positive territory an hour and 30 min ago, at around $1801/oz, but that was short-lived and gold quickly pulled back below the $1800 level. Silver has been in the red all session and just put in a new session low of $34.26/oz 30 minutes ago.

Gold is currently down 0.6% at $1788.50, while silver is 1.8% lower at $34.53/oz. Copper is currently 2.8% lower at $3.44/lb and platinum is down 1.9% at $1640.80/oz.
DJ30 -281.31 NASDAQ -71.82 SP500 -33.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 270/445 mln/2068 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 169/210 mln/2712

10:00 am : The steepness of the stock market's morning slide has lessened, but stocks continue to trend lower, sparing only a handful of names.

Advancing issues have been limited. In fact, declining issues outnumber advancers by more than 15-to-1 on the NYSE. Best Buy (BBY 27.28, +0.44) and Merck (MRK 34.48, +0.01) are two of the more widely held names that have managed to tick higher in the face of the stock market's sell-off.

Wholesale inventory numbers for September were just released. They showed a 0.1% decline in inventories. That contrasts with the 0.5% jump that had been expected. DJ30 -282.94 NASDAQ -70.62 SP500 -32.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 185/110 mln/2015 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 150/70 mln/2575

09:45 am : Stocks are down sharply in the first few minutes of trade. The drop has completely erased the gains that the market had acheived during the course of the past two sessions.

Weakness is widespread with more than 90% of S&P 500 components in the red, but financials and energy stocks are generally in the worst shape -- both sectors are down in excess of 3%. DJ30 -255.66 NASDAQ -64.36 SP500 -30.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -29.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -47.50. Stocks climbed 2% during the course of the past two sessions, but just about all of that move is about to be tested. Stock futures suggest that a sharply lower start is in order, given the aggressive selling that has taken place ahead of the open. Participants are turning against stocks for fear of what may be unfolding in Europe as yields on Italy's debt continue to climb, indicative of dwindling confidence in the country's ability to get a grip on its fiscal and financial problems. Many pundits have already made it known that even if conditions in Italy worsen, the country's economy is far too big to be bailed out. Amid concerns of contagion the dollar has attracted safety seekers. Most of its strength this morning is owed to a weaker euro, which is down 1.6% to $1.360. Treasuries are also attracting buying interest. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is up almost a full point, taking its yield back below 2.0%. Results from an auction of 10-year Notes are due at 1:00 PM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -27.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -44.50. The CRB Commodity Index is currently down 0.7% as many of its components come under pressure. Oil prices are down 1.4% to $95.45 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. The action precedes the latest weekly inventory report, which will be released at 10:30 AM ET. Elsewhere in the energy complex, natural gas prices are down 1.2% to $3.80 per MMBtu. As for precious metals, gold prices are fractionally lower at $1797 per ounce, while silver prices are off by 0.9% at $34.85 per ounce. Trade for grains has yet to open, but the action therein will likely be based partly on the November WASDE report. Updated production estimates have taken down expected domestic wheat supplies for 2011-2012 by 9 million bushels. Corn projections were trimmed by 123 million bushels.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -29.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -46.00. Trade in Europe has soured since the prior session, when many of the region's major bourses bounced for gains greater than 2%. Today, though, concerns about financial and fiscal conditions in Italy have not only caused yields on Italy's debt to spike, but undermined confidence across the region. In turn, the EuroStoxx 50 is down 1.8%. In Germany, the DAX has dropped 2.7%. Deutsche Bank (Pre-market: DB 37.12, -3.43), Commerzbank, and Allianz are both in rough shape and leading losses. A strong report from Deutsche Post has helped it climb higher after it lagged in the prior session. It is the only name in the 30-member bourse boasting a gain. France's CAC is currently off by 2.3%. Its financial issues are in rough shape after they had staged strong gains yesterday. Britain's FTSE has fallen to a 2.1% loss. Admiral Group is the worst performer by percent lost, but banking plays like Lloyds Group (Pre-market: LYG 1.75, -0.17), Royal Bank of Scotland (Pre-market: RBS 6.73, -0.67), and Barclays (Pre-market: BCS 11.13, -0.92) are being battered as an entire group.

Coming off of a mixed performance, Asia's major averages advanced for strong gains in its most recent round of trade. The effort gave Japan's Nikkei a 1.2% gain. It was led by the likes of Citizen Holdings, Mitsui Chemicals, and SM Trust. Even in the face of broad market strength shares of Olympus extended their descent by shedding another 20%. The stock is now at a new multi-year low and down around 75% from its one-month high. Hong Kong's Hang Seng ascended to a 1.7% gain. China Life Insurance was a strong performer. It also staged a strong advance on mainland China's Shanghai Composite, which closed with a 0.8% gain. Data from China showed that consumer prices for October climbed 5.5% from the prior year, but that is actually a cooler pace than the 6.1% year-over-year spike observed in September.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -28.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -45.30. Stocks staged a steady climb into the close of the prior session, resulting in strong gains for the major equity averages. However, the mood among market participants has since soured, causing stock futures to slide. Participants continue to take their cues from Europe, where the region's major bourses have surrendered the heady gains that they achieved yesterday.

Spiking yields on Italy's debt also indicate a nervousness about the ability of leaders there to get a grip on precarious fiscal and financial conditions. That has largely overshadowed a cooler inflation reading from China.

Although there is a bounty of companies still making quarterly reports, the number of blue chips in the bunch continues to dwindle. That said, there are still a handful of widely-held names making announcements. Among the most recent, both General Motors (GM 25.04, +1.03) and Macy's (M 32.16, -0.19) posted upside earnings surprises, but Macy's detracted from that feat by issuing downside guidance. Shares of both companies are down about 4% ahead of the open.

Data today is light with monthly wholesale trade numbers on tap for 10:00 AM ET. Results from an auction of 10-year Notes are due at 1:00 PM ET. Weekly oil inventory figures follow at 10:30 AM ET. Crude oil futures prices are down more than 1% to about $95.65 per barrel ahead of pit trade. The benchmark Note is already up about a full point this morning. That has its yield a few basis points below 2.0%.

06:47 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -31.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -55.50.

06:46 am : Nikkei...8755.44...+99.90...+1.20%. Hang Seng...20014.43...+336.00...+1.70%.

06:46 am : FTSE...5450.70...-116.60...-2.10%. DAX...5792.87...-168.60...-2.80%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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