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 Post subject: November 4th Friday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +6.00
PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2011 10:42 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +6.00 points or $600.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=96&t=1047.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=145&t=1269

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

S&P 500 Has First Weekly Drop Since September on Europe

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks fell, driving the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its first weekly decline since September, as a disagreement on Europe's resources to fight the debt crisis offset a drop in the American unemployment rate.

Stocks Close Dismal Week Down Roughly 2%

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By Maureen Farrell November 4, 2011: 4:57 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks stayed under pressure with all major U.S. indexes falling about 2% for the week. Investors remained wary over whether Greece could default on its debt and what that might mean for the global financial system.

Greece once again dominated as the world awaits a vote on its prime minister's future, scheduled for Friday night. Future leadership of Greece is likely to decide whether the nation will take the necessary steps to avoid a default on its sovereign debt.

"We still don't have any clue about what the Greek government actually looks like," said Mark McCormick, a currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

And investors don't like uncertainty.

After another week of wild swings, the Dow Jones industrial average (DJI) ended the week down 2%. The S&P 500 (INX) lost 2.5% for the week, and the Nasdaq (COMP) dropped 1.9%.

Stocks rebounded from sharper losses during the day by Friday's close. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 61 points, or 0.5%, and the S&P 500 lost 8 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq moved down 12 points or 0.4%.

Bank stocks were the among the day's biggest laggards. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) saw its share price fall more than 6%, after disclosing that it would convert debt into more equity. Shares of Citigroup, (C, Fortune 500) Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), Credit Suisse (CS), and Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) also fell.

Meanwhile, G-20 leaders agreed to an 'action plan' to boost economic growth and stabilize the financial system as they wrapped up their meeting in Cannes, France.

Still, investors said the pledge didn't do enough to show that European politicians have tools to stop contagion in Greece from spreading throughout the banking system.

"We're in a confidence game now on Main Street and Wall Street," said Sal Catrini, managing director of equities at Cantor Fitzgerald. "The rally is tired."

October's jobs report gave some confidence to investors, because it revised previous reports on jobs growth upwards for August and September. The actual unemployment rate dipped to 9% from 9.1% the prior month, indicating that the job market could be gaining strength.

With most stocks down, investors finally had their shot to buy a sliver of shares of the daily deals site Groupon (GRPN), which started trading on Nasdaq Friday. Its shares immediately popped, jumping as much as 50%. Groupon priced its initial public offering at $20 a share late Thursday.

* El-Erian: U.S. can't escape Europe's crisis

Stocks closed significantly higher Thursday, as investors focused on the European Central Bank's surprise rate cut and mostly shrugged off fears over Greece.

Economy: The monthly jobs report showed that the U.S. added 80,000 jobs in October. Economists surveyed by CNNMoney were expecting a gain of 98,000 jobs in October.

Companies: Before the market open, Jon Corzine resigned as the CEO of bankrupt brokerage firm MF Global. He said he won't seek severance pay.

Late Thursday, bailed-out insurance firm AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) posted a net loss of $4.1 billion, or $2.16 a share, for the third quarter. While analysts hadn't expected the company to post a profit, the size of the loss exceeded expectations.

World markets: European stocks closed lower. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) was down 0.3%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany fell by 2.6% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) lost 2.1%.

Asian markets ended higher. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) added 0.8%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong jumped 3.1% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) added 1.9%.
Gold: The hedge against political stupidity

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the British pound, dipped against the euro and was flat versus the Japanese yen.

Oil for December delivery added 19 cents to $94.26 a barrel.

Gold for December delivery slipped $9.10 to $1,756.00 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury dipped, pushing the yield to 2.10%.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Renewed weakness on Friday left stocks to finish the week on a down note, contributing to the market's worst weekly performance in more than a month. As has been the case all week, participants paid close attention to the events of Europe.

Greece drove trade for virtually the entire week and, by extension, was responsible for most of the market's volatility. During the course of this week's first two sessions stocks sank more than 5% as participants reacted to news that Greece wanted to pursue a referendum of the eurozone bailout, effectively threatening to undermine the efficiency with which the plan could be completed and implemented. Stocks spiked in the next two sessions as sentiment improved amid reports that officials put pressure on Greece to acquiesce to the agenda of other eurozone members by abandoning its plans for a referendum. Although the drama didn't exactly rival a Greek tragedy, it still made for interesting theatre.

By Friday, stocks were unable to build on the gains achieved in the past two sessions. Buying was partly diffused by news that discourse during a G-20 meeting became less than amicable. That seemed to suggest that, despite recent efforts, an agreement on how to handle Greece and precarious conditions in the rest of Europe remain elusive.

Market participants were also uninspired by news that unemployment eased down to 9.0% from 9.1%, which is where it had been expected to remain. Nonfarm payrolls for October totaled 80,000, which is slightly less than the tally of 85,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Nonfarm private payrolls increased by 104,000, which is less than the consensus call for an increase of 117,000, but on par with the ADP Employment Change that was reported this past Wednesday. The latest weekly initial jobless claims count of 397,000 was not included in calculations, though it is worth noting that that tally marked the first time in a month that initial claims slipped below 400,000.

In all, the employment levels proved on par with weak-to-moderate economic growth. With that in mind, the Fed announced mid-week that it raised its long-run umemployment rate forecast to 5.6% from 5.4%. The Fed also cut its growth forecast for fiscal 2011 to the range 1.6% to 1.7% from the range 2.7% to 2.9%. For 2012, growth is expected the range from 2.5% to 2.9%, down from a range of 3.3% to 3.7% that had been previously projected.

In its most recent policy statement, the FOMC kept its target interest rate at 0.00% to 0.25%. It also stated that the Fed remains prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery and that it will continue to extend the average maturity of its securities holdings. At the European Central Bank's latest meeting, members decided to become more accommodative by trimming the key lending rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%.

Other data this week featured the October ISM Manufacturing Index, which declined to 50.8 from 51.6 in the prior month. It had been expected to improve to 52.1. As for the ISM Services Index, it came in at 52.9, which is less than the 53.9 that had been broadly expected.

Given the market's fixation on macro-related headlines, earnings were given secondary concern. Overall, results this week were generally better-than-expected. Pfizer (PFE 56.50, +0.39), Kraft (KFT 35.18, -0.60), MasterCard (MA 360.09, -6.50), and Qualcomm (QCOM 56.50, +0.39) were among the more major names that reported -- each exceeded what Wall Street had expected. Comcast (CMCSA 22.75, -0.57), ArcelorMittal (MT 20.31, -0.29), Kellogg (K 49.91, +0.00) and Marsh & McLennan (MMC 30.58, -0.19) were among the more widely held names that came short of the consensus estimate.

With earnings mattering little to market participants this week, stocks slid to a 2.5% weekly loss. That snapped four straight weeks of gains.

Amid the market's weakness, the dollar attracted buyers. For the week it climbed about 2.5% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Most of its strength came earlier in the week, when participants had dumped the euro amid all of the headlines out of the eurozone. The yen also slumped earlier this week. Its dive came after Japan's officials intervened in the currency in an effort to curb its strength. Just last week the yen set a post-WWII record high. DJ30 -61.23 NASDAQ -11.82 NQ100 -0.5% R2K -0.7% SP400 +0.1% SP500 -7.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 903/1.93 bln/1586 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1160/855 mln/1798

3:30 pm : Trade was generally mixed among commodities today. That kept the CRB Commodity Index close to the neutral line all session.

Among the CRB's primary components, oil prices made an incremental advance to $94.43 per barrel. Natural gas prices settled only a penny higher at $3.90 per MMBtu.

As for precious metals, gold prices suffered a 0.6% loss by closing at $1755.60 per ounce. Silver prices shed 1.1% by settling at $34.10 per ounce. DJ30 -95.89 NASDAQ -15.49 SP500 -10.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 770/1.53 bln/1715 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 955/555 mln/2010

3:00 pm : Stocks have been backed down in recent trade. That leaves them to enter the final hour of trade with more sizable losses. As things stand, the stock market is on pace for a 2.6% weekly loss, which makes for its poorest weekly performance in more than a month.

Participation hasn't been very strong today, indicated by the fact that barely a half billion shares have traded hands on the NYSE this session. DJ30 -86.50 NASDAQ -11.09 SP500 -9.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 840/1.40 bln/1625 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1090/505 mln/1835

2:30 pm : Stocks still aren't in positive territory, but their climb off of session lows has helped cool volatility. In turn, the Volatility Index, which is often euphemistically referred to as the Fear Gauge, has fallen back to the flat line after it was up more than 6% earlier today. Earlier this week the Volatility Index set a 10-day high.DJ30 -65.77 NASDAQ -6.27 SP500 -6.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 830/1.32 bln/1620 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1090/465 mln/1828

2:00 pm : Stocks recently set session highs, but the move has since stalled and stocks are now retracing the latest leg of the climb.

Not a single sector has managed to make it into positive territory. The lack of positive leadership has made the market's rebound effort more impressive. What's more, there really hasn't been any headline or catalyst that has accounted for the climb. DJ30 -82.18 NASDAQ -9.27 SP500 -8.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 760/1.19 bln/1680 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 960/420 mln/1965

1:30 pm : Stocks have resumed their upward climb to set afternoon highs. Of the major equity averages, the Nasdaq has done the best job of cutting losses. Its efforts have been helped by renewed support for tech stocks.

Tech stocks are collectively down 0.6%, but large-cap tech issues like Google (GOOG 597.04, -0.46) have managed to erase nearly all of their gains. Boasting a market cap of more than $190 billion, shares of GOOG are among the most influential in the tech-rich Nasdaq. DJ30 -99.79 NASDAQ -14.87 SP500 -10.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 700/1.08 bln/1740 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 830/385 mln/2080

1:00 pm : The stock market's attempt to rebound from session lows has lost steam in recent minutes, leaving the stock market to continue wrestling with a loss in excess of 1%.

Stocks have been in negative territory all session. Their slide comes after markets staged two-straight rallies amid reports that Greece has been pressured to acquiesce to the eurozone bailout plan by abandoning its referendum. However, G-20 discussions pertaining to the troubles of Greece and the rest of the eurozone have been reportedly less than amicable.

Market participants have also been uninspired by the latest monthly payrolls report. The pickup in nonfarm payrolls for October wasn't quite as strong as had been expected, but payrolls for the two preceding months were revised substantially higher.

Earnings remain an afterthought among market participants, who continue to take most of their clues from Europe and other macro-related headlines. However, Groupon (GRPN 28.15, +8.15) is a high flyer in its debut session. The stock opened well above its IPO price of $20 per share, which already exceeded what had been expected.

With stocks stuck in negative territory today, the broad market faces its first weekly loss in five weeks. As things currently stand, stocks are at risk of a weekly loss in excess of 2%. DJ30 -147.58 NASDAQ -24.95 SP500 -15.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 690/985 mln/1730 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 780/350 mln/2095

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to gradually work their way higher, even though Europe's major bourses are about to end the week on a down note. Trade in Europe is in the process of settling for the session. Losses among the region's major bourses are expected to range between 2% and 3% as participants respond negatively to the lack of progress made during the latest G-20 meeting, especially as things pertain to Greece.DJ30 -138.50 NASDAQ -20.99 SP500 -14.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 710/875 mln/1665 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 770/310 mln/2100

12:00 pm : Although the major averages remain stuck in negative territory with sizable losses, stocks have managed to work their way up to rebound highs. The effort has been relatively broad and without leadership.DJ30 -141.45 NASDAQ -22.93 SP500 -14.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 310/775 mln/1745 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 635/275 mln/2215

11:30 am : The major equity averages remain mired in negative territory with sizable losses as stocks struggle to work their way up from session lows.

There isn't a single sector that has managed to limit its loss to less than 1%, but financials, down 2.2%, are still in the worst shape. Strength in the financial sector remains extremely limited. In fact, of the many names that make up the S&P 500 financial sector, only Intercontinental Exchange (ICE 128.20, +0.45) and Genworth Financial (GNW 6.94, +0.78) have successfully fought off sellers to trade higher. Shares of ICE are up only incrementally, but GNW has surged with help from an upside earnings surprise. DJ30 -160.76 NASDAQ -31.53 SP500 -18.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 590/675 mln/1745 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 630/240 mln/2200

11:00 am : Selling pressure recently dropped the S&P 500 down to the 1240 line, which marked a session low, but stocks have managed to bounce back a bit. Overall sentiment remains decidedly negative.

Amid selling pressure the Volatility Index is up about 6%. Still, it remains well off of the 10-day high that it set earlier this week. DJ30 -166.92 NASDAQ -34.87 SP500 -19.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 455/505 mln/1840 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 485/185 mln/2320

10:35 am : The dollar index hit a new session high in recent trade at 77.27, which is weighing on the commodity complex.

WTI Crude oil futures have been on a downtrend over the past hour and just hit a new session low of $93.25/barrel. While WTI crude is in the red, the rest of the energy complex is showing modest gains (nat gas +0.9%, heating oil and RBOB +0.3%, brent crude +0.2%).

Natural gas has been in positive territory all morning and ran as high as $3.95/MMBtu. In current trade, the energy component is up 0.8% at $3.93/MMBtu. Precious metals are lower this morning along with copper and platinum. Aluminum futures are up modestly.

Both gold and silver have been in the red all morning. About 30 minutes ago, gold hit a new session low of $1751.80/oz and is now down 0.6% at $1754.20/oz. Silver is now 1.2% lower at $34.09/oz. Copper futures fell to a new session low of $3.55/lb about 10 minutes ago and is currently down 0.9% at $3.56/lb.DJ30 -149.62 NASDAQ -36.48 SP500 -18.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 452/452 mln/1811 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 502/172 mln/2286

10:00 am : Stocks spent the past 20 minutes chopping along in a relatively narrow range, but are now breaking down. In turn, the major equity averages are now at session lows.

Financials continue to feel the brunt of this morning's selling pressure. The sector is now down 2.0%, which remains almost double what the broad market has suffered. AIG (AIG 23.42, -1.21) and Morgan Stanley (MS 16.26, -0.70) are the worst performers by percent lost. They pair has already fallen in excess of 4%. DJ30 -118.03 NASDAQ -28.75 SP500 -14.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 465/115 mln/1600 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 560/55 mln/2060

09:45 am : Financials are leading early losses. The sector is currently down 1.6%, which is about double the loss of the broad market. Diversified banks and financial services stocks have been the heaviest drags on the space this morning.

For the second straight session energy stocks are among the best performers. Although the sector is presently down 0.5%, it has done a better job many of the other sectors. Only consumer discretionary stocks, down 0.4%, have fared better. DJ30 -84.65 NASDAQ -17.17 SP500 -9.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.30. Stocks rallied in each of the past two sessions, taking the S&P 500 back into positive territory for the year, but sellers have returned to the fold. Their efforts come as Europe's bourses turn lower amid reports that discussions at the G-20 meeting have been less than amicable. Participants also appear unimpressed by the latest jobs data, which featured smaller-than-expected increases in October payrolls and strong upward revisions to prior month totals. Earnings results, although generally better-than-expected, have also been of little consequence to traders, but that has been a recurring theme amid the events of Europe. With sentiment souring ahead of the open, the greenback has garnered some buying interest. In turn, the dollar has advanced about 0.4% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Treasuries have also attracted moderate buying interest, but the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note remains comfortably above 2.00%.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.50. Commodity prices are mixed this morning. That has the CRB Commodity Index up just 0.2%. Among its more commonly tracked components, oil prices are up 0.2% to $94.25 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. For the week, oil prices are up about 1.0%. Natural gas prices are up 0.4% to $3.92 per MMBtu today, but down about 3.1% for the week. Precious metals are weaker this morning. As such, gold prices are down 0.2% to $1762.40 per ounce this morning, but up 0.9% for the week. Silver prices have slipped 0.4% to $34.35 per ounce and are down 2.6% for the week.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.50. Stock futures continue to trail fair value, having pulled back from a bounce that followed the latest jobs report. According to data, the headline unemployment rate now stands at 9.0%. It had been broadly expected to remain at 9.1%. Nonfarm payrolls for October totaled 80,000, which is slightly less than the tally of 85,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Nonfarm private payrolls increased by 104,000, which is less than the increase of 117,000 that had been expected. While the numbers from October may not be very impressive, there were some strong upward revisions to numbers for September and August. Specifically, nonfarm payrolls for September were revised to 158,000 from 103,000 and nonfarm payrolls for August were revised to 104,000 from 57,000.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -17.30. Mixed action in Europe and caution ahead of the official payrolls report at 8:30 AM ET had been holding stock futures near the neutral line, but some selling pressure has surfaced in response to headlines that members of the G-20 have been unable to establish an accord on IMF resources.

Macro-related headlines continue to garner most of the market's attention, so many earnings reports are still of secondary concern, although they remain strong overall. In other corporate news, Groupon (GRPN) priced its initial public offering at $20 per share, which is above the range that had been expected.

A weaker tone to premarket trade has stocks at risk of a lower start to trade on Friday. The market is already facing a weekly loss of almost 2%, which would snap a streak of four straight weekly gains.

06:54 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -0.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.50.

06:54 am : Nikkei...8801.40...+161.00...+1.90%. Hang Seng...19842.79...+600.30...+3.10%.

06:54 am : FTSE...5588.85...+43.20...+0.80%. DAX...6138.00...+4.80...+0.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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