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 Post subject: November 2nd Wednesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +27.00
PostPosted: Wed Nov 02, 2011 10:21 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +27.00 points or $2700.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=96&t=1043.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=145&t=1269

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Rebound on Federal Reserve Statement

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks advanced, rebounding from a two-day drop in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as the Federal Reserve said economic growth strengthened and it is prepared to take action if needed to safeguard the recovery.

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Market Update

4:25 pm : Strength wavered a bit in the wake of the latest FOMC Policy Statement, but stocks ultimately settled with solid gains as buyers stepped back in after the equity market suffered a two-day drubbing.

Entering today's trade stocks had fallen about 5% in just two sessions. Selling was driven by concerns that the implementation of a eurozone bailout package could be disrupted by a referendum issued by Greece. However, concerns over the matter were tempered by expectations that the European Central Bank will discuss the referendum's implications ahead of its latest policy statement, which is scheduled for tomorrow morning.

The FOMC issued its most recent statement today. To little surprise, the FOMC kept its target interest rate at 0.00% to 0.25%. It also stated that the Fed remains prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery and that it will continue to extend the average maturity of its securities holdings. In a question and answer session, Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated that under the right conditions the Fed's purchase of mortgage-backed securities would be considered.

Just before Bernanke's press conference began the Fed's revised growth forecast was released. For fiscal 2011 the Fed expects economic growth to range from 1.6% to 1.7%, down from the range of 2.7% to 2.9%. For 2012, growth is expected the range from 2.5% to 2.9%, down from a range of 3.3% to 3.7%. Additionally, the Fed raised its long-run umemployment rate forecast to 5.6% from 5.4%.

Stocks descended to session lows between the FOMC statement and Bernanke's press conference. They gradually worked their way upward in late afternoon trade, but never returned to the highs that were set in the first half of the session. Still, buying was both strong and broad.

All 10 major sectors settled in positive territory, but energy and financial stocks were the best performers. Both sectors ended the day with gains close to 3%.

MasterCard (MA 357.66, +23.36) was one of the strongest performers on an individual level. Better-than-expected earnings and broad market strength helped the stock reach a record high. On average, earnings continue to exceed Wall Street's expectations.

Data helped provide a positive backdrop to trade. The latest ADP Employment Change showed that private payrolls increased by 110,000 in October. That exceeded the increase of 100,000 that had been widely anticipated. The ADP report provides a glimpse into the offiical jobs report, which will be released Friday morning.

Advancing Sectors: Energy +2.9%, Financials +2.8%, Materials +2.2%, Industrials +1.8%, Utilities +1.7%, Telecom +1.3%, Tech +1.1%, Consumer Discretionary +1.1%, Consumer Staples +0.8%, Health Care +0.6%
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +178.08 NASDAQ +33.02 NQ100 +0.9% R2K +2.7% SP400 +2.2% SP500 +19.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1958/1.92 bln/563 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2506/957 mln/499

3:30 pm : Commodities rebounded in morning trade, aided by dollar weakness, following yesterday's sell-off. A late session rally in the dollar after today's FOMC decision, as well as some more headlines relating to the Greek bailout, helped the dollar recoup a majority of its losses. This rebound pressured commodities. Gold futures ended higher by 0.3% at $1734.20 per ounce, while silver gained 0.5% to finish at $34.09 per ounce. Both metals dropped sharply heading into the close of pit trade to give back the vast majority of their gains.

Crude oil settled higher by 0.4% at $92.51 per barrel. This morning's larger-than-expected build in inventories initially pushed crude lower. The late session move higher in the dollar added to the sell-off. Natural gas finished off 0.9% at $3.75 per MMBtu. Futures pulled back toward lows heading into the close to finish with losses for the third consecutive session.DJ30 +183.08 NASDAQ +31.37 SP500 +19.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1965/1.5 bln/548 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2561/638.5 mln/483

3:00 pm : Stocks are reclaiming gains as they enter the final hour of the session. Financials and energy, up 2.3% and 2.5%, respectively, are leading the effort. To be fair, though, buying interest has been broad all session. In fact, even at the stock market's session low not a single sector had descended into negative territory.

More than 100 companies are scheduled to report quarterly results after the close. Kraft (KFT 34.71, +0.15) and Qualcomm (QCOM 51.91, +1.77) are a couple of the more notable names in that lot. Tomorrow morning brings results from about 150 more companies. ArcelorMittal (MT 19.98, +0.58), CVS Caremark (CVS 35.91, +0.46), and Kellogg (K 53.81, +0.25) are part of tomorrow morning's bunch. DJ30 +154.95 NASDAQ +21.41 SP500 +15.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1770/1.34 bln/695 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2365/545 mln/600

2:30 pm : The yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now back to 2.00% after it had been pushed higher this morning. Its pullback coincides with the stock market's downturn.

Stocks are up a bit from session lows, but still well off of their best levels of the day. Many participants are paying close attention to comments made during the question-and-answer portion of Fed Chairman Bernanke's press conference, which began at about 2:15 PM ET. So far, Bernanke hasn't stated anything provocative. DJ30 +127.90 NASDAQ +14.10 SP500 +12.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1700/1.22 bln/760 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2275/495 mln/675

2:00 pm : Stocks remain near session lows ahead of Fed Chairman Bernanke's press conference, which is scheduled for 2:15 PM ET, but copies of his prepared remarks are beginning to circulate. Preliminary headlines indicate that the Fed's growth forecast for fiscal 2011 has been trimmed to reflect growth of 1.6% to 1.7% from the range 2.7% to 2.9%. Its estimate for 2012 has been reduced to the range 2.5% to 2.9% from the range 3.3% to 3.7%. Meanwhile, it has raised its long-run umemployment rate forecast to 5.6% from 5.4%.DJ30 +118.06 NASDAQ +13.66 SP500 +12.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1715/1.09 bln/725 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2325/435 mln/615

1:30 pm : A recent bout of selling pressure has dashed gains and dropped stocks to session lows. The major averages are still up solidly for the session, though.

At the same time, the dollar has been trimming its loss. In turn, it now trails a basket of competing currencies by only 0.2%. DJ30 +115.68 NASDAQ +12.60 SP500 +11.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1750/1.00 bln/680 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2350/400 mln/575

1:00 pm : Trade has turned somewhat choppy in the minutes following the latest FOMC Policy Statement, which didn't contain any surprises. Still to come, though, is Fed Chairman Bernanke's press conference, which is scheduled for 2:15 PM ET.

Altough the major equity averages have started to oscillate, the overall mood among participants remains positive. Their buying effort comes after stocks suffered a two-day drubbing that dropped the broad market by about 5%. For now, concerns related to Greece's referendum of the eurozone bailout have cooled.

Positive market breadth has all 10 major sectors in positive territory. Gains are most impressive among financials (+1.8%), energy (+1.8), and utilities (+1.7%). The utilities sector typically doesn't trade alongside the energy and financial sectors since it is much less cyclical and, therefore, regarded as defensive in nature.

Broad market strength and an upside earnings surprise have made MasterCard (MA 357.02, +22.72) one of this session's top performers. The stock actually set a record high earlier today.

As has been the case for the past couple of weeks, earnings have generally surpased forecasts. That hasn't guaranteed positive performances, however. Case in point, Time Warner (TWX 33.13, -0.71) exceeded exceptions, but investors have soured on the media company's shares, which are at a one-week low.

Improved sentiment and a rebound by the euro have taken the dollar lower after it had rallied sharply in each of the past two sessions. The greenback currently lags a basket of major foreign currencies by 0.5%, but it is still up more than 2% week to date. DJ30 +118.25 NASDAQ +15.67 SP500 +14.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1910/885 mln/505 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2530/350 mln/400

12:35 pm : There hasn't been much of a reaction to the latest FOMC Policy Statement, which was released only minutes ago. Its verbiage was mostly the same as that of recent statements.

Among the more notable items, the FOMC has kept its target interest rate at 0.00% to 0.25%. It also stated that it will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and that it is prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. Also, the Fed will continue its program to extend the average maturity of its securities holdings, as announced in September.

Fed Chairman Bernanke has yet to hold his press conference, which is scheduled for 2:15 PM ET. DJ30 +181.75 NASDAQ +29.30 SP500 +19.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1880/800 mln/520 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2535/310 mln/375

12:00 pm : The dollar continues to trail several competing currencies. As such, the Dollar Index is down 0.6% today. Most of its move lower comes in response to a resurgant euro, which is currently up 1.2% to $1.380 after it descended more than 3% during the course of the past three sessions. The euro's recent troubles are owed to concerns that a referendum issued by Greece regarding the eurozone bailout could stall efforts to improve financial conditions in the region.DJ30 +185.91 NASDAQ +32.25 SP500 +20.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1890/680 mln/470 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2570/270 mln/320

11:30 am : Stocks have eased off of session highs, but they continue to sport strong gains amid positive market breadth -- advancing share volume has outpaced declining volume by more than 10-to-1 on the NYSE.

The positive tone to today's trade has helped cool volatility. In turn, the Volatility Index, which is often dubbed the Fear Gauge, is down 6%. That pales in comparison with its 20% surge in the prior session, though. DJ30 +194.13 NASDAQ +36.44 SP500 +21.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1890/595 mln/435 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2565/235 mln/305

11:00 am : Stocks drifted lower in the first 30 minutes of trade, but they have spent the past hour rallying. The effort has all three major equity averages at new session highs. The S&P 500 is leading the trio as it sports a gain of almost 2%.

As was the case in the early going, financials (+2.9%) and energy (+3.0%) are the frontrunners. Participants are scooping up names of diversified banks and financial services firms after their precipitous two-day drop. Oil and gas equipment and services stocks are also attracting buyers. DJ30 +204.27 NASDAQ +37.69 SP500 +22.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1800/425 mln/475 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2460/175 mln/365

10:35 am : Commodities are mostly higher this morning across the board, while the dollar index is showing some weakness. Aside from aluminum, metals are showing some of the best gains today led by silver futures, which are up 4.5%.

Crude oil futures have been in positive territory all morning and ran as high as $93.77/barrel. Just ahead of the inventory data, crude was up about 1.1% at $93.29. Following the data, which showed a build of 1.8 million barrels versus a build of 0.5 million barrels, crude oil saw a modest pullback and is now up 1.0% at $93.15/barrel.

Natural gas is the only energy component in the red and is currently down 0.6% at $3.90/MMBtu.

Precious metals are higher this morning as well and just hit new session highs. Gold recently hit a new session high of $1743.20/oz and is now up 1.8% at $1741.70/oz, while silver ran as high as $34.27/oz and is currently up 4.5% higher at $34.21/oz.

Copper futures is one of the best performing commodities today and are currently 2.5% higher at $3.59/lb. Platinum futures are up 2.0% at $1612.80/oz.DJ30 +153.82 NASDAQ +20.16 SP500 +16.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1746/361 mln/480 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2442/154 mln/359

10:00 am : Gains are being tapered, but the overall tone of early trade remains positive. Of the major averages, the Nasdaq's descent from morning highs has been the fastest. Its slide comes as tech stocks and biotech plays encounter some pressure.DJ30 +135.02 NASDAQ +18.72 SP500 +14.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1745/115 mln/320 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2385/65 mln/300

09:45 am : Broad-based buying has stocks sporting strong gains. As such, all three major equity averages are up by 1% or more.

Financials and energy stocks were among the worst performers in the prior session, but are among this morning's leading issues. Financials fell almost 5% yesterday, but are up 2.1% today. Energy stocks are also up 2.1%, collectively, after a loss of little more than 3% in the prior session.

Even utilities are showing strength. The defensive-oriented sector is currently up 2.0%, recovering almost all of its prior session loss. DJ30 +153.94 NASDAQ +28.44 SP500 +17.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +19.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +24.50. Stock futures point to a higher start to trade. That is expected to give the market some relief after it suffered two straight sessions of aggressive selling that culminated in a two-day drop of about 5%. It had been exactly one month since stocks had experienced such a bad back-to-back bleeding. Despite the improved tone this morning, there remain concerns about financial conditions in Europe and the swiftness with which the region's officials will be able to implement a bailout package, especially as Greece stands by its referendum. That said, a slightly better-than-expected ADP Employment Change report for October has been supportive of the stock market's positive posture this morning. Another big batch of better-than-expected quarterly reports is also in the backdrop. Still on the agenda, though, is the latest FOMC Policy Statement, which will be made at 12:30 PM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +19.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +24.50. The commodity complex has garnered buying interest after suffering sizable losses in the prior session. The improved tone is partly owed to a pullback by the dollar, which is down 0.7% against a basket of major foreign currencies after it rallied sharply for two straight sessions. Gold prices fell 0.7% yesterday, but are up 1.1% to $1730 per ounce this morning. As for silver, the precious metal tumbled 4.0% in the prior session, but has rebounded to $33.90 per ounce for a 3.5% gain. Crude oil prices slid 1.1% yesterday, but in early pit trade they are up 1.6% to $93.65 per barrel ahead of weekly inventory numbers at 10:30 AM ET. However, natural gas has extended its 3.7% prior session decline by falling another 0.6% this morning. The energy component was last quoted at $3.90 per MMbtu.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +17.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.70. Stock futures continue to trade with modest strength in the wake of the latest ADP Employment Change, which showed that private payrolls increased by 110,000 in October. That's slightly better than the increase of 100,000 that had been anticipated among economists polled by Briefing.com. Additionally, payrolls for the prior month were revised upward to 116,000 from the 91,000 that had been reported initially. Although the ADP report does not always align with official non-farm payrolls numbers, it is often directionally accurate relative to expectations. The offiical jobs report will be released Friday morning. The Briefing.com consensus currently calls for an increase of 85,000 in non-farm payrolls and an increase of 117,000 non-farm private payrolls.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +15.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.50. After suffering a loss on the order of 5% in just two sessions, stocks are attracting some buying interest this morning. The corresponding uptick in stock futures coincides with an improved mood in Europe, where the region's major bourses are sporting solid gains after a two-day drubbing of their own. The euro is also gettng some relief; it is currently up 1.0% to $1.378.

Earnings reports continue to feature plenty of better-than-expected results, but the bunch continues to be of secondary concern amid questions about the efficiency with which a eurozone bailout plan can be implemented with Greece's offiicials seeking a referendum on its measures.

Today's calendar features the monthly ADP Employment Change at 8:15 AM ET. Weekly oil inventories will be released at 10:30 AM ET. This afternoon brings the latest FOMC announcement, which will be made at 12:30 PM ET.

06:56 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +14.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.30.

06:56 am : Nikkei...8640.42...-195.10...-2.20%. Hang Seng...19733.71...+363.80...+1.90%.

06:56 am : FTSE...5407.00...-14.60...-0.30%. DAX...5834.14...-0.40...0.00.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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