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 Post subject: November 30th Wednesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +6.70
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 11:36 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +6.70 points or $670 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=96&t=1069.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=145&t=1269

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Dow Closes With Largest Gain Since March 2009

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Maureen Farrell @CNNMoneyMarkets November 30, 2011: 4:38 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Investors around the world raced to scoop up stocks on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve said it will work with other central banks to support the global economy.

All three major stock indexes closed the day up more than 4%. The Dow's 489-point gain is the largest of 2011 and the best percentage gain since March 2009. Still, despite today's run-up, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are down for the year.

The central banks' coordinated market intervention gave investors hope that world leaders could take necessary steps to avoid a credit crunch or market paralysis stemming from Europe's sovereign debt crisis.

"It's the first time we've seen this type of global coordination since November 2008," said Michael James, a senior equity trader at Wedbush Morgan. "The degree of coordination sends a message to the markets that global leaders are going to do whatever they need to do to instill confidence in the markets." (Read: Welcome to the Great Global Easing)

For now at least, investors appear willing to ignore any possible parallels between today and November 2008, and just how precarious the state of financial system might be to warrant such a move by global bankers.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) closed the day up 490 points, or 4.2%, and ahead 0.6% for the month. The S&P 500 (SPX) added 52 points, or 4.3%, but stayed down 0.5% for the month. The Nasdaq (COMP) composite moved up 105 points, or 4.2%, but still shed 2.3% in November.

Bank stocks also rallied on news of the central banks' plans and helped investors ignore Tuesday evening's Standard & Poors' downgrade of big bank stocks. Shares of Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley, (MS, Fortune 500) Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Jefferies (JEF) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) spiked more than 7%. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), which hit its 52-week low Tuesday, also closed up 7.3%.

The Federal Reserve, along with five other central banks including the European Central Bank and the Central Bank of Canada, announced a joint action to lower interest rates on dollar liquidity swaps -- making it cheaper for banks around the world to trade in U.S. dollars.

The move is an attempt to "ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity," the banks said in a statement.

* Fed and China save the day

Adding to the markets' enthusiasm was more evidence that the U.S. economy could be picking up steam after two better-than-expected reports on private-sector jobs, housing and Midwest manufacturing.

"The fundamentals just keep marching forward despite the market turmoil," said Doug Cote, chief investment strategist at ING. "The real economy seems indifferent to the EU debt headlines."

European markets closed after inking sharp gains in the wake of the news. Germany's DAX (DAX) closed up 5%. England's FTSE 100 (UKX) ended the day up 3.2%. France's CAC 40 (CAC40) moved up 4.2%.

World markets had already been modestly higher prior to the announcement, as reports said eurozone finance ministers have approved an increase to the region's bailout fund, and may potentially receive help from the IMF.

China also announced Wednesday that it will cut its banks' reserve requirements, to help ease liquidity and prop up the global economy.

* French downgrade could derail eurozone rescue

U.S. stocks finished mostly higher Tuesday, with the Dow and S&P extending gains from the previous day's rally, as investors remained hopeful that European leaders are making progress towards resolving the continent's debt crisis.

World markets: Asian markets -- which closed before the news from various central banks came out -- ended lower. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) tumbled 3.3%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong dropped 1.5% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) ticked down 0.5%.

Economy: A report from Automatic Data Processing showed that private- sector employment grew by 206,000 jobs in November. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect private sector jobs to have increased by 125,000 for the month of November.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, a report on manufacturing activity in the Midwest, came in well above the level that signal expansion in the sector.

In the afternoon, the Fed's Beige Book was released illustrating a slow to moderate pace of growth based on economic outlooks from the 12 district banks across the country.

Companies: Shares of American Eagle (AEO) rose after it released quarterly results before the opening bell.

* The startup choice: Get big or get bought

On Tuesday, American Airlines' parent company, AMR (AMR, Fortune 500), announced it had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The company's stock plunged more than 80% during trading Tuesday, but rose 25% Wednesday.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for January delivery gained 43 cents to $100.22 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery moved up $30.50 to $1,744.20 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose slightly, yielding 2.07%.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : A bevy of upbeat headlines drove the Dow back above 12,000 as stocks scored their best single-session advance in three months. Stocks are now on pace for their best weekly performance since the first quarter of 2009.

Building on the bounce that began at the beginning of this week, buyers pushed back into stocks after officials in China announced overnight lower reserve requirement ratios for the country's banks. Their efforts were ratcheted up when it was learned that several major central banks, including the Fed, will coordinate efforts to ease pressure in global money markets.

Buying interest was further bolstered by news that the ADP Employment Change for November showed an increase in private payrolls of 205,000, which is far greater than the increase of 125,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Data for the prior month was revised upward to reflect an increase of 130,000 private payrolls. However, the Fed's Beige Book for October would later indicate that hiring during that month was generally subdued.

The Chicago PMI improved to its best level since April by spiking from 58.4 in October to 62.6 in November. Many had actually expected the number to slip to 57.5. Pending home sales for October also proved impressive, despite expectations for an underwhelming number. Specifically, an incremental increase of 0.1% had been anticipated, but instead a spike of 10.4% was posted.

The decidedly upbeat nature of today's headlines induced a buying effort that was both strong and broad from start to finish. Moreover, the move came on above-average share volume.

Stocks have now scored three straight gains, but what is most impressive is in that time the broad market has climbed more than 7% to almost fully offset the losses suffered in the seven preceding sessions.

With participants so willing to pile on risk, Treasuries traded lower. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note moved back above 2.00%, setting a new 10-day high along the way.

The dollar also dropped today. At session's close it was down nearly 1% against a collection of competing currencies. The euro gained the most ground against the greenback.

The Volatility Index, often euphemistically referred to as the Fear Gauge, returned to its monthly low amid the market's rally. By day's end it was down more than 9%. Just last week it had traded near its monthly high.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +6.6%, Materials +5.9%, Energy +5.5%, Industrials +5.1%, Tech +4.0%, Health Care +3.7%, Telecom +3.3%, Consumer Discretionary +3.2%, Utilities +2.8%, Consumer Staples +2.4%
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +490.05 NASDAQ +104.83 NQ100 +3.8% R2K +5.9% SP400 +5.0% SP500 +51.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2148/2.41 bln/464 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2705/1.66 bln/394

3:30 pm : Commodities, including gold, silver, copper and crude oil all surged on this morning's announcement that six central banks will implement coordinated actions to enhance their capacity to provide liquidity support to the global financial system. This news applied substantial pressure to the dollar. Gold and silver futures rallied sharply on the back of this news. Both metals did, however, eventually level off. Gold spent the majority of pit trade chopping around the $1750 mark, while silver eventually found resistance at the $33 mark. Gold ended higher by 1.8% at $1750.30 per ounce, while silver settled up 2.9% at $32.89 per ounce.

Crude futures were pressured in mid-morning trade the bigger-than-expected build in inventories, as well as the modest rebound in the dollar. Despite the pullback, futures managed to close above the $100; up 0.6% at $100.36 per barrel. Natural gas ended lower by 2.2% at $3.56 per MMBtu. Futures attempted to recoup morning losses, but fell shy of breaking above the unchanged mark. That failed breakthrough led to a late-session sell off.DJ30 +413.54 NASDAQ +85.75 SP500 +40.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2155/1.6 bln/432 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2694/706.1 mln/411

3:00 pm : Stocks continue to dance along session highs as they enter the final hour. Today's heady gains have stocks on track for their best one-day bounce in three months. More impressive is that stocks are up more than 6% week-to-date. Stocks haven't had such a strong week since 2009.DJ30 387.88 NASDAQ +82.32 SP500 +40.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2165/1.38 bln/415 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2680/600 mln/380

2:30 pm : The Volatility Index, often euphemistically referred to as the Fear Gauge, is down more than 7% so that it is back near its one month low. The VIX had been trading near its one-month high only a few days ago, when stocks were stuck in a losing streak that spanned seven consecutive sessions.DJ30 +394.73 NASDAQ +83.61 SP500 +40.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2140/1.26 bln/370 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2685/545 mln/370

2:00 pm : The stock market has drifted off of its afternoon high, but it continues to boast a gain greater than 3%.

Share volume has been strong since the open, reflecting a pickup in participation from previous sessions. Action has been predominately geared toward buying, resulting in a near 25-to-1 advantage for advancing issues over declining issues on the NYSE.

The Fed's Beige Book was just released. It indicated that manufacturing activity expanded at a steady pace across most of the country. However, hiring was generally subdued. DJ30 +392.85 NASDAQ +78.32 SP500 +38.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2140/1.15 bln/405 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2705/500 mln/340

1:30 pm : Strength among stocks has kept steady pressure on Treasuries. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is back above 2.00% to trade at a new 10-day high.

Increased interest in relatively risky assets has also weighed on the dollar today. As such, the greenback trails a collection of competing currencies by about 0.9%. However, the dollar has managed to work its way up from its session low. DJ30 +394.85 NASDAQ +81.14 SP500 +39.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2140/1.07 bln/400 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2715/460 mln/315

1:00 pm : A barrage of buying has the stock market on pace for its best single-session surge in three months. Couple that with a big bounce earlier this week, and stocks are up more than 6% in only three sessions. The rally comes after the stock market had suffered seven straight losses.

Stocks have been in rally mode all session. The positive posture took form overnight as traders reacted to news that officials in China have lowered the reserve requirement for the country's banks.

Buying efforts became much more concerted in response to coordinated efforts by several major central banks to ease pressure in global money markets.

Data has helped reinforce the upbeat mood among market participants. The latest ADP Employment Change showed that private payrolls increased by 205,000 during November. An increase of only 125,000 had been generally expected.

The Chicago PMI improved to 62.6 in November from 58.4 in the prior month when many had expected it to slip to 57.5.

Pending home sales for October spiked by 10.4%. An incremental increase of 0.1% had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Productivity and cost data for the third quarter were generally dismissed. DJ30 +419.06 NASDAQ +86.91 SP500 +41.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2150/995 mln/380 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2705/435 mln/310

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to drift along session highs, allowing their heady gains to consolidate. At its current level, the stock market is on pace for its best single-session performance in three months. Also impressive is that the stock market is on track for its second 3% gain of the week. The surge, which has taken stocks more than 6% higher in only three sessions, comes after the broad market logged seven straight losses.DJ30 +417.78 NASDAQ +87.91 SP500 +41.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2155/895 mln/365 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2700/400 mln/300

12:00 pm : The Dow has bounded to a gain of more than 400 points with help from all 30 of its components. Wal-Mart (WMT 58.73, +0.56) is the only blue chip that has been unable to climb by at least 1%, but only barely. Caterpillar (CAT 96.56, +6.02), Alcoa (AA 9.81, +0.50), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 30.43, +1.87) are its three top performing issues.DJ30 408.24 NASDAQ +85.81 SP500 +40.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2155/790 mln/345 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2730/365 mln/255

11:30 am : The dollar has been down all day. Its loss, which currently stands at 1.0% against a collection of competing currencies, comes after it was announced this morning that many major central banks, including the Fed, are making a coordinated effort to ease pressures on global money markets. The effort to improve liquidity has been helpful to the euro, sterling pound, and yen, all of which have gained ground against the greenback.DJ30 +409.22 NASDAQ +88.31 SP500 +41.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2150/670 mln/320 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2730/310 mln/235

11:00 am : Stocks are sitting at session highs, sporting their best one-day gains since a surge of more than 4% in August.

This session's spike has been broad, resulting in gains of at least 2% for all 10 major sectors, but natural resource plays have garnered the most buying interest. In turn, both the energy sector and the materials sector are up by almost 5%. Within the energy sector oil and gas equipment and services issues are among the most impressive performers, while steel stocks are sporting some of the strongest gains in the materials sector. DJ30 +419.82 NASDAQ +88.62 SP500 +42.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2160/540 mln/280 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2735/260 mln/210

10:35 am : Oil prices have pulled back from their morning highs following the release of the latest weekly inventory numbers, which showed a greater-than-expected build of 3.93 million barrels. Oil prices had been up almost 2% only minutes ago, but the energy component now trades with a 1.1% gain at $100.95 per barrel.

Natural gas prices continue to contend with selling pressure. They were last quoted with a 1.9% loss at $3.56 per MMBtu. All week the commodity has been out of sync with the broader commodity complex.

Precious metals continue to perform well. In fact, both silver and gold are sporting gains of 1.8%, putting their prices at $32.54 per ounce and $1750 per ounce, respectively. DJ30 +398.02 NASDAQ +83.11 SP500 +39.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2145/385 mln/255 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2725/200 mln/175

10:00 am : Another dose of data has just been posted. Pending home sales for October spiked by 10.4%, which is far greater than the incremental increase of 0.1% that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Homebuilder shares have extended their already robust gains in the wake of the data. As such, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB 16.39, +0.67) is now at a new session high. The surge this morning comes on top of gains in each of the two previous sessions, resulting in a three-day cumulative climb of almost 10% for the ETF.DJ30 +410.51 NASDAQ +79.87 SP500 +40.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2090/125 mln/180 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2650/100 mln/115

09:45 am : A strong Chicago PMI reading is helping stocks add to their already impressive gains. The Chicago PMI improved to 62.6 in November from 58.4 in the prior month. It had been generally expected to slip to 57.5.

The buying effort has been broad based and already has the stock market up 3% this morning. Perhaps more impressive is that in only three sessions the stock market is up more than 6%. DJ30 +384.10 NASDAQ +76.72 SP500 +38.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +36.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +59.00. Stock futures continue to ride high and the dollar continues to contend with aggressive selling pressure. The action comes as participants respond to news that officials in China have lowered the reserve requirement for the country's banks, coordinated efforts by several major central banks to ease pressure in global money markets, and a better-than-expected ADP report for November. Productivity and cost data for the third quarter were generally dismissed, especially given the gravity of the aforementioned headlines. Still to come, though, are the latest Chicago PMI (9:45 AM ET), pending home sales numbers (10:00 AM ET), weekly oil inventories (10:30 AM ET), and the Fed's latest Beige Book (2:00 PM ET). There hasn't been any corporate news of considerable consequence to the broad market this morning.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +37.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +64.30. Collective strength in the commodity complex has the CRB Index up 1.1%. Oil prices are up 1.8% to $101.60 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade. The climb to a two-week high comes ahead of the latest weekly inventory report, which will be released at 10:30 AM ET. Natural gas prices remain mired in the red at $3.62 per MMBtu, which makes for a 0.3% loss. Precious metals are performing well. Specifically, gold prices were last quoted with a 1.8% gain at $1749 per ounce. Meanwhile, silver is sporting a 1.6% gain at $32.46 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +38.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +60.50. A positive posture initially spurred by news that officials in China have lowered the reserve requirement ratio for the country's banks was built upon by news of coordinated efforts by central banks to address pressures in global money markets.

The upbeat mood has been further reinforced by news that the ADP Employment Change for November proved far better than what had been expected. The report showed that private payrolls increased by 205,000 during November. On average, an increase of only 125,000 had been expected. Moreover, payrolls for the prior month were revised upward to reflect an increase of 130,000.

Productivity and cost data for the third quarter were just posted. Productivity was revised downward to reflect a 2.3% increase, which contrasts with the 2.6% increase that had been broadly expected to follow the 3.1% increase posted in the preliminary reading. Labor costs were revised downward to reflect a 2.5% decline. That's steeper than the 2.1% decline that many had come to expect.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +29.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +49.00. Stock futures have surged in response to recent word that the Fed and other central banks are coordinating efforts to address pressures in global money markets. Meanwhile, the dollar is down sharply against a collection of competing currencies. The announcement comes just minutes before the release of the ADP Employment Change, which will be posted at 8:15 AM ET. Productivity and cost data follow at 8:30 AM ET, then comes the latest Chicago PMI at 9:45 AM ET. Pending home sales numbers will be posted at 10:00 AM ET. Weekly oil inventory numbers are in store for 10:30 AM ET. The Fed's latest Beige Book will become available at 2:00 PM ET.

06:35 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +11.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +21.00.

06:35 am : Nikkei...8434.61...-43.20...-0.50%. Hang Seng...17989.35...-266.90...-1.50%.

06:35 am : FTSE...5391.26...+54.30...+1.00%. DAX...5868.27...+68.40...+1.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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