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 Post subject: October 26th Wednesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +31.30
PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2011 2:46 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +31.30 points or $3130.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=95&t=1036.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=144&t=1237

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : The major equity averages scored varied gains even though the highly anticipated European Union Summit concluded without providing market participants with a framework for shoring up financial conditions in the continent.

Investors looking for a plan regarding the EU's approach to improving financial conditions will have to wait a few more weeks. Until then, headline risk related to financial conditions in Europe will likely persist, given that little insight was given into the discussions made by members of the EU during a summit today. Despite that, stocks were able to attract buying interest and rebound after rolling over in morning trade.

Even though there is still concern about the exposure of banks to Europe, financials provided leadership this session. In doing so, the sector helped stocks recover from a morning retreat that took the major averages down sharply from their opening levels. Financials collectively scored a 2% gain.

Energy stocks were even stronger today. The sector advanced 2.3%, even though oil prices fell more than 3% to conclude pit trade at $90.20 per barrel. The selling was largely driven by bearish weekly inventory data and a degree of profit taking from the energy component's recent climb to a two-month high.

Consumer discretionary stocks underperformed all session. They settled with a collective loss of 0.4%, making them the only major sector that failed to finish in positive territory. Amazon.com (AMZN 198.40, -28.75) was an especially heavy drag on the sector after its earnings came short of the consensus forecast. Weakness in AMZN also hampered the Nasdaq all session, leaving it to underperform its counterparts.

The Dow maintained a healthy lead over the other averages for the entire session. Boeing (BA 66.56, +2.84) was one of its best performers, thanks to a better-than-expected earnings report.

Data today featured a 0.8% decline in total durable goods orders for September and a 1.7% jump in orders less transportation. The consensus call was for a 1.0% decline in total orders and a 0.4% increase in orders less transportation.

Advancing Sectors: Energy +2.2%, Financials +2.0%, Materials +1.9%, Health Care +1.4%, Telecom +1.1%, Consumer Staples +0.9%, Industrials +0.7%, Utilities +0.7%, Tech +0.4%
Declining Sectors: Consumer Discretionary -0.4%, DJ30 +162.42 NASDAQ +12.25 NQ100 -0.1% R2K +1.9% SP400 +1.2% SP500 +12.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1853/2.12 bln/690 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2432/1.11 bln/588

3:30 pm : The rally in precious metals continued into its fourth consecutive session. Gold futures gained 1.3% to end at $1723.60 per ounce, while silver futures closed higher by 1.9% to end at $33.65 per ounce. The flight to safety is back on for the precious metals (evidenced by today’s strength in the dollar) as uncertainty reigns over what is next to come in the euro zone. Both metals traded to fresh ~1 month highs today as well.

Bearish inventory data, concerns about the euro zone, and profit taking from its recent rally to back above $90 all pressured crude oil prices, which ended lower by3.2 % at $90.20 per barrel. Natural gas futures ended lower by 7 cents at $3.59 per MMBtu.DJ30 +166.96 NASDAQ +16.77 SP500 +10.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1809/1.7 bln/723 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2436/752.7 mln/608

3:00 pm : The major equity averages have backed off of their afternoon highs, but remain in positive territory with varied gains. Although uncertainty related to the EU Summit has been removed, headline risk related to conditions in the region are likely to remain elevated.

With only an before the toll of the closing bell, participants are preparing for the next round of earnings. More than 100 companies will post results after the close of trade today. Nearly 200 more will report tomorrow morning. A complete list of companies, results, and consensus estimates is available at Briefing.com. DJ30 +136.46 NASDAQ +7.40 SP500 +11.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1765/1.45 bln/725 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2380/625 mln/605

2:30 pm : Recent headlines indicate that participants in the EU Summit are partial to leveraging the EFSF bailout, but that details won't be decided until November. The lack of reaction among makret participants suggests that after all of the buildup the Summit was essentially a non-event and that market participants weren't really expecting any details today.DJ30 +143.99 NASDAQ +10.43 SP500 +11.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1705/1.35 bln/770 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2300/585 mln/670

2:00 pm : Stocks recently pushed to afternoon highs in response to headlines that suggest China may be interested in investing in eurozone debt. Those reports have not been confirmed, though.

Financials continue to offer leadership. The sector is now up 1.4%. Not to be overshadowed, energy stocks and health care stocks are also up 1.4%. Tech stocks, which make up the largest sector by market weight, are mired at the neutral line. Shares of semiconductor outfit Broadcom (BRCM 35.22, -0.58) continue to imbue shares of other semiconductor stocks and, in turn, the broader tech sector in the wake of the company's latest quarterly report. DJ30 +111.33 NASDAQ +3.31 SP500 +7.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1600/1.17 bln/835 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2200/500 mln/750

1:30 pm : Results from an auction of 5-year Notes were released at 1:00 PM ET. The auction drew a bid-to-cover of 2.90, dollar demand of $101.5 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 49.3%. For comparison, the prior auction saw a bid-to-cover of 3.04, dollar demand of $106.4 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 45.9%, while an average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 2.82, dollar demand of $98.8 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 41.7%. Treasuries have trimmed some of their losses in the auction's wake.DJ30 +33.79 NASDAQ -17.08 SP500 -0.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1220/1.07 bln/1195 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1685/450 mln/1220

1:00 pm : Stocks opened today's trade with gains of about 1% or more, but sellers were quick to step in and take advantage of the angst associated with an EU Summit today.

The major equity averages are now mixed. Word that Germany agreed to strengthen the European Financial Stability Fund played a part in giving the stock market a strong start, even though the announcement wasn't a complete surprise. A big batch of better-than-expected earnings also helped improve sentiment among morning participants, as did news that durable goods orders made during September were better than what had been anticipated.

However, early strength was difficult to sustain as some pundits express skepticism regarding the EU's ability to efficiently formulate a comprehensive plan intended to shore up financial conditions in Europe. As strength among stocks diminished, many participants were compelled to turn sides and start selling. The effort took the Dow down to the flat line and the Nasdaq to a loss well in excess of 1%.

The major averages were able to turn up from their session lows with help from financials, which have managed to put together a 0.5% gain, even though the exposure of banks to Europe remains inconclusive.

Consumer discretionary stocks remain distinctly weak. The sector is down 1.5% as shares of Amazon.com (AMZN 200.74, -26.33) descend to a two-month low in response to disappointing earnings. The weight of AMZN has also dragged on the Nasdaq. DJ30 +21.46 NASDAQ -21.25 SP500 -2.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1445/980 mln/970 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2000/415 mln/900

12:30 pm : The major market averages have struggled to extend their recent rebound, but shares of Netflix (NFLX 79.20, +1.83), which suffered yesterday a precipitous drop in response to disappointing guidance, have rallied in today's trade. The stock's bounce comes as hedge fund investor Whitney Tilson spoke positively of the stock in an interview on CNBC.DJ30 +43.48 NASDAQ -12.14 SP500 +0.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1400/890 mln/970 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1975/380 mln/935

12:00 pm : The S&P 500 is back in positive territory after descending to a sizable loss, but the Nasdaq has yet to make its way out of the red. The Nasdaq's loss is only a fraction of what it had been when stocks were at session lows, though. Meanwhile, the Dow continues to outperform its counterparts as it sports a solid gain.

Outside of equities, the dollar has been bid higher as market participants display some uncertainty related to the outcome of a summit between leaders of the European Union. The greenback is currently up 0.3% against a basket of major foreign currencies, but up 0.5% against the euro specifically. DJ30 +57.82 NASDAQ -10.15 SP500 +2.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1255/770 mln/1080 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1800/330 mln/1090

11:30 am : The major equity averages are starting to recover from session lows with help from the financial sector, which is now up 0.8%. Despite angst about what plans will be made by eurozone officials in shoring up financial conditions in the continent, and the implications of those plans on the portfolios of many banks, the sector has been solid almost all session. Even at its session low, the financial sector was only flat for the day.DJ30 +38.53 NASDAQ -19.04 SP500 -0.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1020/660 mln/1280 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1500/285 mln/1355

11:00 am : Stocks have extended their dowturn to new session lows. The Dow is only barely negative, but the Nasdaq now trades with a loss well in excess of 1%. The S&P 500 is between them.

The Dow's relative strength is partly owed to a bounce by Boeing (BA 66.14, +2.42), which has been bid sharply higher in response to a better-than-expected earnings report. The Dow has also been helped by strength in shares of financial components Travelers (TRV 56.99, +0.65), JPMorgan Chase (JPM 33.68, +0.19), Bank of America (BAC 6.49, +0.03), and American Express (AXP 49.74, +0.32). In contrast, the Nasdaq has been dragged down by weakness in large-cap tech stocks like Google (GOOG 578.02, -5.14) and Microsoft (MSFT 26.19, -0.62), but Amazon.com (AMZN 200.18, -26.97) has been one of the heaviest drags after its earnings miss.DJ30 -2.04 NASDAQ -29.83 SP500 -2.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1185/500 mln/1065 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1610/230 mln/1215

10:35 am : The dollar index rallied over an hour ago and pushed back into positive territory, which pulled the CRB Commodity Index off its session high of 321.72.

Energy markets are weak this morning and crude oil futures remain in the red ahead of inventory data. The energy component fell into negative territory two hours and hit a new session low of 91.74/barrel in recent trade.

Following the inventory data, which showed a build of 4.7 million versus consensus that called for a build of 1.5 million barrels, crude fell to fresh session lows; now at $91.84, down 1.4%.

Natural gas was higher in overnight activity, but began to initially sell off the same time crude did earlier this morning. Nat gas hit a new session low of $3.62/MMBtu an hour ago and is currently down 0.8% at $3.63/MMBtu.

Precious metals are higher this morning. Silver almost broke through the $34 level four hours ago, but couldn't quite gain enough steam. The precious metal trended lower from that high, but is now back near that area, currently up 1.8% at $33.67/oz. Gold futures have remained above the $1700 area this morning and hit a new session high a few minutes ago at $1724.50/oz. In current trade, gold is up 1.3% at $1722.90/oz.DJ30 +85.33 NASDAQ -3.56 SP500 -2.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1356/427 mln/883 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1833/204 mln/983

10:05 am : New home sales numbers for September were just released. They increased by 5.7% to an annualized rate of 313,000, which is a positive surprise since the Briefing.com consensus had called for a sales rate of 300,000. Stocks haven't really reacted to the report.

Although all three of the major averages are pulling back from opening levels, the Nasdaq's descent has been steepest. Its retreat comes as shares of heavyweight Amazon.com (AMZN 205.46, -21.69) contend with a loss of about 10% after coming short of the consensus earnings estimate. DJ30 +123.82 NASDAQ +8.96 SP500 +8.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1750/165 mln/345 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2380/90 mln/360

09:45 am : The major market averages all opened with gains of about 1% or more and have done a relatively sound job of preserving their opening levels.

Buying has been generally broad based this morning. However, the consumer discretionary sector has failed to find positive territory. Its 0.1% loss is largely due to weakness in Amazon.com (AMZN 203.13, -24.02), which announced last night earnings that failed to meet what had been expected by Wall Street. DJ30 +136.19 NASDAQ +20.12 SP500 +10.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.20. Stock futures have improved their position, such that a sharply higher start to today's trade is now expected. Buying interest comes despite a weak finish to the prior session and angst about how members of the European Union will achieve any plans developed today during a summit, which has been arranged to produce a framework for dealing with Europe's debt crisis and precarious financial conditions. However, headlines indicative of progress are helping improve sentiment. As such, it has just been learned that the German Parliament has approved the motion to strengthen the European Financial Stability Fund, as had been generally expected. The news has helped drive higher the euro, which is now up 0.4% against the greenback. Strong earnings have made for a positive backdrop. For the second straight day reports have generally exceeded what Wall Street had expected. Amazon.com (AMZN) has been one of the few exceptions. As for data, both total durable goods orders and orders less transportation for September proved better than expected. New home sales numbers aren't due until 10:00 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.00. Oil prices climbed sharply in the first two sessions of this week, but favor for the energy component has been challenged this morning. In turn, oil prices are currently down 0.5% to $92.70 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. The action precedes the latest weekly inventory numbers, which will be released at 10:30 AM ET. Natural gas prices are also down. They were last quoted with a 0.1% loss at $3.66 per MMbtu. Precious metals have attracted support this morning. Specifically, gold prices are up 0.7% to $1712 per ounce, while silver prices are up 1.1% to $33.40 per ounce. Overall action in the commodity complex has the CRB Commodity Index up just 0.2%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.20. Stock futures continue to trade with a modest lead over fair value following the latest dose of data. Total durable goods orders slid 0.8% in September. They had been expected to decline by 1.0%, according to economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Although the decline wasn't as bad as had been expected, it did prove worse than the 0.1% slip that was posted for the prior month. Excluding transportation items, durable goods actually climbed by 1.7% in September. That was far better than the 0.4% increase that had been predicted by a panel of economists. However, orders less transportation for the prior month were revised downward to reflect a 0.4% decline.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.00. Stocks slumped yesterday, but the mood this morning has improved as market participants await the outcome of a European Union Summit. Early media reports indicate that members are expected to agree to a 50% haircut on Greece's debt. Meanwhile, there has been a deluge of earnings reports for traders to digest. The majority of the bunch has been better than expected, but Amazon.com (AMZN) is one of the more notable names on the short list of those that failed to meet the consensus forecast. Shares of AMZN have responded by diving about 12% ahead of the open. Monthly durable goods orders numbers are due at the bottom of the hour. New home sales figures follow at 10:00 AM ET. Also on the calendar, weekly oil inventory data are due at 10:30 AM ET. Results from an auction of 5-year Notes will be revealed at 1:00 PM ET.

06:56 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.50.

06:56 am : Nikkei...8748.47...-13.80...-0.20%. Hang Seng...19066.54...+98.30...+0.50%.

06:56 am : FTSE...5530.83...+5.30...+0.10%. DAX...6045.42...-1.30...0.00.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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