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 Post subject: October 18th Tuesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +39.80
PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2011 7:08 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +39.80 points or $3980.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=95&t=1030.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=144&t=1237

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

S&P 500 Index Rallies to Highest Level Since August

Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks gained, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to the highest level since August, as Bank of America Corp. paced a rally in financial shares and optimism grew over progress on expanding Europe's rescue fund.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks extended their prior session slide in the opening minutes of trade, but a combination of technical support and leadership from financials led stocks back to higher ground. The effort was extended in response to word that eurozone officials agreed to boost bailout funds, although that story was called into question at the close.

The stock market scored a 2.0% gain today, offsetting a move of similar degree to the downside yesterday. Participants were initially inclined to cut down stocks this morning. Negative sentiment was stirred by news that China, which carries the burden of being the primary supporter of global growth amid tenuous macro conditions, experienced a slowdown in economic growth during the third quarter. The 9.1% growth rate was also less than the 9.3% clip that many had anticipated.

Early selling interest was also ushered in by the threat of a future downgrade of France's pristine debt rating, which was put on negative watch by analysts at Moody's. The notion that the countries in the core of the eurozone, not just those in the region's periphery, face precarious fiscal and financial conditions put pressure on Europe's major bourses and further undermined the morning mood.

The S&P 500 was down about 1% within the first 30 minutes of trade, but it was able to bring buyers back in by holding steady at its 50-day exponential moving average.

Financials also offered leadership. The sector's refusal to turn negative in conjunction with the broad market's early dive convinced many that the sector's strength was sustainable, prompting many to push back into the space. Financials finished the session with a 5% gain.

Bank of America (BAC 6.64, +0.61) was one of the strongest performers. Not only did the stock boast the most robust share volume on the Big Board, but it also swung to a 10% gain. The move made for the stock's best one-day bounce in almost two months. The stock's surge came even though the company's latest quarterly report was muddled with numerous items. Even Goldman Sachs (GS 102.25, +5.35) staged an enviable gain, although the company reported a loss that was worse than what most of Wall Street had expected.

While financials offered leadership, the broad market got an additional boost amid news that leaders from France and Germany agreed to balloon the region's rescue fund to 2 trillion euros, although specifics continue to elude the leaders. Some doubt was cast on the report shortly before the close, causing stocks to surrender a portion of their gains.

The broad market's late bounce failed to carry shares of IBM (IBM 178.90, -7.69) to higher ground. The stock's loss came in the face of an upside earnings surprise and strong forecast. Fellow large-cap tech plays like Intel (INTC 23.40, +0.12) and Apple (AAPL 422.24, +2.25) stayed out of the red, but also lagged ahead of their latest reports.

Not to be ignored, Dow components Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 64.42, +0.63) and Coca-Cola (KO 66.74, -0.26) both bested bottom line expectations, but only JNJ shares were bid higher at the end of the day.

No sector logged a loss, but defensive-oriented issues like utilities, telecom, consumer staples, and health care were the only groups that failed to generate gains greater than 1%. Such relative weakness came as market participants showed an increased appetite for risk.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +5.0%, Energy +3.0%, Industrials +2.9%, Materials +2.4%, Consumer Discretionary +1.8%, Tech +1.0%, Health Care +0.8%, Consumer Staples +0.8%, Telecom +0.8%, Utilities +0.7%
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +180.05 NASDAQ +42.51 NQ100 +1.3% R2K +3.0% SP400 +2.6% SP500 +24.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1982/1.93 bln/595 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2562/1.09 bln/487

3:30 pm : Stabilization in the euro allowed for commodities to move higher throughout the session. Gold, which shed 1.3% to finish at $1652.80 per ounce, and silver, which finished near flat at $31.83 per ounce, rallied off morning lows throughout the session. Gold futures managed to trade back to the $1660 mark, a key level, while silver futures were able to recoup all of their losses and end just above flat on the day.

Crude oil, which settled higher by 2.3% at $88.34 per barrel, rallied off of the $85.50 mark in mid-morning trade and never looked back. Futures traded as high as $88.6 heading into the close and ended just shy of those levels. A pullback in the dollar, coupled with strength in equities, helped crude end higher ahead of tomorrow's inventory data. Natural gas fell 3.6% at $3.55 per MMBtu , finished sharply lower today, pressured by expectations for milder weather forecasts. DJ30 +171.05 NASDAQ +39.75 SP500 +24.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1940/1.5 bln/633 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2555/704.3 mln/500

3:00 pm : Stocks are starting to spike as they enter the final hour of today's trade. The effort has all three major equity averages at session highs.

The recent bout of buying has been broad based, but financials remain out in front by a comfortable margin. The sector is now up 4.5%. Industrials, up 3.0%, are the next best performing group. Telecom is bringing up the rear; the sector is up only 0.5%. DJ30 +132.41 NASDAQ +24.57 SP500 +17.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1690/1.17 bln/860 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2300/535 mln/700

2:30 pm : Stocks have resumed their upward climb. The effort has both the Dow and the S&P 500 at their best levels of the day. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has returned to the top end of its trading daily range.

Financials remain out in front of the rest of the market. The sector is now up nearly 4%. Bank stocks have provided the most boost to the sector. As such, the KBW Bank Index is up almost 5%. Its bounce today comes after it set a weekly low at the prior session's close. DJ30 +122.34 NASDAQ +21.33 SP500 +16.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1715/1.06 bln/810 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2320/485 mln/680

2:00 pm : Shares of Apple (AAPL 420.91, +0.92) are barely positive today. The stock's incremental increase precedes the company's latest quarterly report, which will be posted after the close of today's trade. Fellow large-cap tech outfit Intel (INTC 23.33, +0.05) is also slated to report after the close, along with Yahoo! (YHOO 15.48, -0.22).

Tomorrow morning brings the latest from a bevy of notable names, like Abbott Labs (ABT 51.90, -0.14), Morgan Stanley (MS 16.05, +0.80), US Bancorp (USB 24.21, +0.60), Travelers (TRV 50.93, +1.35), and United Technologies (UTX 73.92, +1.80). A complete list of companies scheduled to report quarterly results is always available directly from Briefing.com. DJ30 +94.15 NASDAQ +18.25 SP500 +13.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1650/970 mln/845 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2250/440 mln/720

1:30 pm : Gains have started to taper off. The pullback by the major averages comes without any clear catalyst or headline, but follows some waffling by the S&P 500 in the face of secondary intraday resistance near the 1215 line.DJ30 +76.82 NASDAQ +14.13 SP500 +11.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1660/900 mln/835 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2275/410 mln/690

1:00 pm : Financials are leading stocks higher after the broad market endured a substantial slide in the prior session. The major equity averages are currently taking a breather at session highs.

Sentiment was weak early this morning as global participants responded to news that China's economy downshifted to a slower-than-expected growth rate in the third quarter. Word that France could have its pristine debt rating put on negative watch by analysts at Moody's aroused concern for the core eurozone countries, rather than just those in the region's periphery.

Although the mood among morning participants improved with the appraoch of the open, sellers were quick to step back in. Their efforts sent the S&P 500 down as much as 1.0%, but leadership from the financial sector has helped the broad market measure swing to a 1% gain.

Financials were able to fend off sellers in the early going, resisting efforts to take the sector into negative territory. Its resilience has been rewarded with additional buying interest. In turn, the sector now sports a 3% gain.

Diversified banking and financial services giant Bank of America (BAC 6.44, +0.41) has been especially strong. The stock's spike comes even though the company posted a somewhat muddled quarterly report. Goldman Sachs (GS 99.33, +2.43) has also staged an impressive performance, even though the firm posted a loss that was even steeper than what had been widely anticipated.

Tech stocks have lagged all session. Even now the sector is only up 0.2%. IBM (IBM 176.83, -9.76) has been a primary source of weakness, despite its upside earnings surprise and forecast.

Fellow Dow component Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 63.93, +0.14) has also had a hard time winning support in the wake of its better-than-expected earnings report. Blue chip Coca-Cola (KO 67.01, +0.01) also bested the consensus, but has been having a lackluster day, too. DJ30 +91.62 NASDAQ +18.70 SP500 +13.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1695/845 mln/800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2285/+380 mln/670

12:00 pm : Stocks spent nearly an hour dancing along just above the neutral line, but they recently bounded to fresh session highs.

Materials stocks had been down more than 1.5% at their session low, but the sector has since rallied to a 0.6% gain with help from AK Steel (AKS 7.71, +0.56), which was recently upgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs. Fellow metals and mining giant Alcoa (AA 9.87, +0.29) has also benefited from some positive analyst commentary. Despite their strength, many other metals plays continue to wrestle with sellers. DJ30 +64.94 NASDAQ +18.66 SP500 +10.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1525/645 mln/890 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2050/300 mln/835

11:30 am : Stocks have struggled to sustain momentum from their move off of session lows. That has left the major equity averages to trade with only modest gains.

Tech stocks, which collectively make up the largest sector by market weight, have weighed on broad market trade. The sector remains mired in negative territory with a narrow loss. The sector attempted to push into positive territory earlier, but was rebuffed at the flat line. IBM (IBM 178.00, -8.59) has bogged down the sector since the start of the session. DJ30 +16.65 NASDAQ +0.63 SP500 +3.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1415/550 mln/970 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1920/255 mln/915

11:00 am : Stocks have rallied back after grappling with sellers in the first 30 minutes of trade. The effort has been led by financials, which are now collectively up about 2%. Diversified banks and financial services stocks continue to lead the effort.

Utilities, which did the best job of limiting losses in the prior session, are lagging today. The sector is currently down 0.6%, which makes it today's worst performing group. The push against the defensive-oriented sector comes as participants show an increased appetite for risk. DJ30 +7.46 NASDAQ +1.21 SP500 +3.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1250/445 mln/1030 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1725/200 mln/1055

10:35 am : Commodities are lower this morning on the broad market weakness. The dollar index hit a new session high of 77.55 about 30 minutes ago, which helped pull the CRB Commodity Index to a new session low around the same time (falling to 310.91). Aluminum and lumber futures appear to be the only commodities showing any gains this morning. Lean hogs are at the unchanged line

Crude oil futures have shown some volatility this morning. The energy component hit a new session high of $87.19/barrel about one hour ago, but fell back below the $86 level following that. In more recent activity, crude is back into positive territory and now up 0.4% at $86.75/barrel. Natural gas is down 2.0% at $3.61/MMBtu.

Gold and silver have trended lower all session. Gold fell as far as $1628.60/oz about 30 minutes ago and is currently just above the low, now down 2.30% at $1638.20/oz. Silver Hit a session low this morning of $30.43, but the precious metal is now back above the $31 level, now at $31.06, down 2.3%
DJ30 -28.87 NASDAQ -3.66 SP500 +0.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1150/400 mln/1141 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1599/184 mln/1177

10:00 am : Sellers have stepped in to drop stocks for marked losses. Their efforts come even though the financial sector had displayed signs of early leadership. As a group, financials were up by about 1.5% in the first few minutes of trade, but the sector is now holding on to a gain of only 0.2%. It is actually the only major sector still in positive territory.

Basic materials stocks are in the worst shape. The sector has already slumped to a 1.8% loss, which comes on top of its 3.1% tumble in the prior session. Diversified metals and miners continue to be cut down aggressively. DJ30 -81.06 NASDAQ -21.00 SP500 -7.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1275/75 mln/650 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1620/45 mln/920

09:45 am : Overall action in the early going has been choppy, despite leadership from the financial sector, which is already up 1.5%. The sector's bounce comes amid newfound strength among diversified financial services stocks like Bank of America (BAC 6.31, +0.28) and investment banks and brokerages like Goldman Sachs (GS 98.65, +1.75).

In contrast, tech has been a drag. The sector is currently down 0.7% as heavyweight IBM (IBM 177.98, -8.61) tumbles in an extension of its downturn from the record high that it set late last week. DJ30 -44.58 NASDAQ -7.49 SP500 -1.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.00. Stock futures have recovered from some early morning selling. Pressure initially came amid more losses in Europe, where the major bourses reacted to the idea that one of the region's core countries, France, could be given a negative outlook by analysts at Moody's. Also of concern was news that China's GDP downshifted in the third quarter to its slowest pace in about two years. It also came short of what many economists had come to expect. There was also some headline shock associated with news that Goldman Sachs (GS) suffered a much steeper-than-anticipated loss for the latest quarter, but the stock has since been bid higher. Bank of America (BAC) shares have also bounced ahead of the open. The stock's strength comes even though its latest report was relatively messy, featuring a number of items. Fellow blue chip IBM (IBM) reported a better-than-expected bottom line and issued upside guidance, but it has been unable to shake free from sellers, who already sunk the stock yesterday after it had set a new record high this past Friday. Domestic data featured a hotter-than-expected increase in overall producer prices, but core prices made only an incremental increase that was in line with what had been expected.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.70. Stock futures continue to improve their position. However, no real response was made to news that Treasury International Capital Flows for August totaled $57.8, which is up sharply from the downwardly revised $9.1 billion posted in the prior month. Precious metals prices are under pressure this morning. Specifically, gold prices are down 1.9% to $1644 per ounce, while silver prices have fallen to $30.90 per ounce for a 2.9% loss. In the energy complex, oil prices are currently fractionally higher at $86.50 per barrel, but natural gas prices are down 0.8% to $3.66 per MMBtu.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.30. A recent bounce by financial stocks ahead of the open has helped broad market stock futures trim their losses. Stock futures haven't really reacted to the latest dose of data, though. Overall producer prices spiked by 0.8% during September, but core producer prices increased by a much more tepid 0.2%. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for a 0.2% increase in overall prices and a 0.1% increase in core prices.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.00. The prior session's slide, which represented the stock market's worst single-session performance in two weeks, has extended into this morning's premarket trade. Amid ongoing concerns about the fundamentals of financial firms, Goldman Sachs (GS) posted a steeper-than-anticipated loss for its latest quarter. Shares of GS are down more than 1% this morning. Meanwhile, Bank of America (BAC) bested expectations for its bottom line, but its shares have been looking for direction ahead of the open. Dow component Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported an upside earnings surprise, winning its shares modest support ahead of the open. Fellow blue chip IBM (IBM) also posted a beat, but complemented it with an upside forecast. The stock has still fallen about 4% this morning, though. Coca-Cola (KO) shares are unchanged after the company narrowly exceeded the consensus earnings estimate. Weakness in Europe is in the backdrop. Word that analysts at Moody's could take a negative outlook on France indicated that the problems of the eurozone are not limited to its periphery. News that China's economy grew at a slightly less-than-expected 9.1% has also dampened sentiment. Domestic data features monthly producer prices at the bottom of the hour. Treasury International Capital numbers follow at 9:00 AM ET. The latest Housing Market Index at 10:00 AM ET.

06:30 am : Nikkei...8741.91...-137.70...-1.60%. Hang Seng...18076.46...-797.50...-4.20%.

06:30 am : FTSE...5386.15...-50.60...-0.90%. DAX...5837.49...-21.90...-0.40%.

06:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.00.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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