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 Post subject: October 17th Monday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +22.60
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2011 11:11 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +22.60 points or $2260.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=95&t=1029.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=144&t=1237

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Fall on Dampened Optimism for Crisis Fix

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks declined, after the biggest weekly gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index since 2009, as financial shares slumped and the German government damped optimism of a quick fix to Europe's debt crisis.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Broad-based selling took the stock market roughly 2% lower for its worst performance in two weeks. Only on a few occasions did sellers let up, leaving stocks to settle at or near session lows.

Ripe for profit taking after a 6% weekly climb, stocks endured a steady descent today. The push lower began ahead of the open as early participants watched Europe's major bourses falter. Despite all the recent talk about comprehensive eurozone stability plans and deadlines, nothing of substance has been unveiled. Concern that fiscal and financial problems there could continue caused the region's major bourses to log losses well in excess of 1%. Meanwhile, the euro dropped 1.1% to $1.373.

Europe continues to take precedence over corporate headlines. Even a better-than-expected quarterly report from Citigroup (C 27.93, -0.47) couldn't keep the financial services giant from succumbing to broad market weakness. The stock settled near its session low after it had been up markedly in morning trade. Wells Fargo (WFC 24.42, -2.25) suffered its worst single-session percentage loss in two months, or its second worst in two years, after the lender's earnings came short of the consensus estimate. Concerted selling took financials down 3.3%, which is worse than what any other sector suffered, but marquee investment bank and brokerage outfit Goldman Sachs (GS 96.90, +0.17) managed to remain near the neutral line ahead of its report tomorrow morning.

Shares of Halliburton (HAL 34.48, -2.95) surged this past Friday, but the stock gave it all up as analysts shrugged off an upside earnings surprise to scrutinize the line items on the company's latest quarterly report. Several other oil and gas services stocks traded lower in sympathy.

Broad market weakness couldn't completely detract from the enthusiastic response made for a $38 billion merger between Kinder Morgan (KMI 28.19, +1.30) and El Paso (EP 24.45, +4.86). Shares of EP were able to set a new multi-year high.

Tech stocks failed to offer the same leadership that they have in recent sessions. Imbued by broad market weakness, the sector slid to a 1.8% loss. Heavyweight IBM (IBM 186.59, -3.94) was hit hard ahead of its quarterly report. The stock just set a new record high this past Friday.

Utilities were today's strongest performers. The defensive-oriented sector limited its loss to only 0.3%. Many electric utilities, most of which operate regulated businesses, were even able to produce positive returns today.

Although participants were decidedly pessimistic in their approach today, sending the Volatility Index more than 18% higher as of the close, there wasn't a great deal of share volume behind the effort. In fact, share volume on the NYSE failed to break 1 billion.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Financials -3.3%, Materials -3.1%, Industrials -2.7%, Consumer Discretionary -1.9%, Tech -1.8%, Energy -1.7%, Health Care -1.7%, Consumer Staples -0.9%, Telecom -0.7%, Utilities -0.3% DJ30 -247.49 NASDAQ -52.93 NQ100 -1.6% R2K -3.4% SP400 -2.9% SP500 -23.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 463/1.68 bln/2076 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 571/905 mln/2456

3:30 pm : It was a relatively quiet start to the week for commodity futures. Gold, which ended lower by 0.4% at $1676.60 per ounce, and silver, which finished lower by 1.1% at $31.83 per ounce, sold off in late morning trade, dropping from the flat line down to respective lows at $1665.40 and $31.48. Both metals were able to bounce off those lows to end with modest declines on the day. In afterhours trade, metals have traded back toward lows. Note that the pullback in the precious metals did not correlate with any specific move in the dollar.

Crude oil finished lower by 0.4% at $86.38 per barrel, after it spent the session chopping around the flat line. Natural gas shed 0.7% to close at $3.68 per MMBtu. DJ30 -221.23 NASDAQ -50.58 SP500 -20.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 486/1.3 bln/2053 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 599/566.6 mln/2459

3:00 pm : Stocks have started to work their way up from session lows. Losses remain steep and broad, though. In fact, the S&P 500 is still on pace for its worst one-day drop since a near 3% loss suffered in the first few days of the month.

Share volume hasn't exactly been robust today. In fact, not even a half billion shares have been traded on the Big Board thus far, and only an hour remains before the close. DJ30 -212.64 NASDAQ -49.74 SP500 -20.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 440/1.14 bln/2090 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 540/485 mln/2450

2:30 pm : All three major equity averages are approaching 2% losses. That's got them all at their lowest levels of the day.

Materials stocks remain today's worst performers. The sector has slumped to a 3.2% loss as metals and mining plays come under sharp pressure. Financials and industrials aren't much better off; they're down 2.8% and 2.5%, respectively.

Utilities continue to limit losses. The defensive-oriented sector has spent virtually the entire session dancing along the neutral line -- it is down only 0.1% at the moment. DJ30 -224.03 NASDAQ -52.14 SP500 -21.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 450/1.05 bln/2060 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 575/445 mln/2405

2:00 pm : Stocks have been unable to put together any kind of climb that would take them off of session lows. Weakness has been even more pronounced among small-cap and mid-cap stocks, which are down 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. Amid such persistent weakness the Volatility Index has spiked 14% so that it is back above 32 after it had been at a two-month low this past Friday.DJ30 -200.79 NASDAQ -47.59 SP500 -19.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 445/970 mln/2050 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 575/405 mln/2400

1:30 pm : Treasuries have successfully ticked higher in response to the stock market's slump this session. Interest in the safety of the 10-year Note has its yield back below 2.20%.

The dollar also continues to benefit from buying interest. It has held steady to a gain of about 0.6% against a basket of major foreign currencies. DJ30 -188.99 NASDAQ -45.37 SP500 -18.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 440/895 mln/2045 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 575/370 mln/2390

1:00 pm : The major equity averages are trading at session lows as participants turn against stocks on the heels of the market's best performance in more than two years.

Last week the S&P 500 ascended to a 6% gain, but the swiftness of such a substantial move has tired some. That has opened the door for sellers, many of whom are skeptical of the market's ability to sustain its gains as officials in Europe seem to merely pay lipservice to the tenuous fiscal and financial conditions of the continent.

Concern about the exposure of banks to the flagging eurozone was hardly quelled by a better-than-expected quarterly report from Citigroup (C 28.00, -0.40). The feat by the diversified financial services giant has been largely regarded as company specific. That said, Wells Fargo (WFC 24.81, -1.86) has been cut down aggressively; its 7% slump comes in response to an earnings miss. Collectively, financial stocks are down 2.6%.

Also on the earnings front, Halliburton (HAL 34.63, -2.80) shares have fallen precipitously as analysts question some of the numbers behind the company's latest quarterly report, which was actually headlined by an upside earnings surprise. Elsewhere in the energy sector, Kinder Morgan (KMI 28.54, +1.65) and El Paso (EP 24.24, +4.65) have both benefited from news that the two have struck a $38 billion merger agreement. Overall, energy stocks are down 1.3%.

Tech has found favor among in recent sessions, but today the sector has descended to a 1.8% loss. In contrast, utilities have offered market participants a corner to hide from broad market weakness. The sector is currently flat. DJ30 -206.70 NASDAQ -49.64 SP500 -19.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 430/820 mln/2030 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 590/335 mln/2360

12:30 pm : Shares of Halliburton (HAL 34.99, -2.44) are down sharply today. The stock's slump comes as analysts and investors question the underlying fundamentals of the company's latest quarterly report. As a result, the company's upside earnings surprise has been widely disregarded. The stock's weakness has imbued shares of other oil and gas services plays.

Not all news is bad in the energy sector, however. News of a $38 billion merger between Kinder Morgan (KMI 28.52, +1.63) and El Paso (EP 24.20, +4.61) has been met with a positive response by investors on both sides of the deal. DJ30 -168.10 NASDAQ -41.48 SP500 -16.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 440/725 mln/2000 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 595/300 mln/2335

12:00 pm : Sellers have redoubled their efforts, quashing the stock market's recent recovery effort. As a result, the Dow is back at its lowest level of the day, while the Nasdaq notches a new session low. The S&P 500 has yet to confirm the move, but it is also under pressure.DJ30 -160.94 NASDAQ -36.86 SP500 -15.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 515/625 mln/1900 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 675/265 mln/2245

11:30 am : Stocks have stabilized and are now attempting to rebound from the aggressive selling effort that took the S&P 500 down more than 1%. There isn't much leadership, though. That will only make the recovery effort more difficult to sustain.

Financials have been in focus for several weeks, frequently determining the overall direction of the stock market. The sector has managed to stem losses, but it is still down 2.0% for the day. Meanwhile, tech stocks, which collectively make up the largest sector by market weight, are down 0.8% and adding to the drag on trade. DJ30 -133.66 NASDAQ -25.50 SP500 -12.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 480/540 mln/1900 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 595/225 mln/2290

11:00 am : The major equity averages continue to descend deeper into negative territory. As such, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are now at session lows.

The dollar has attracted buying interest today. It is currently up 0.6% against a basket of major foreign currencies. The euro has been especially weak amid concerns that eurozone officials may be struggling to come up with a comprehensive plan capable of stabilizing the fiscal and financial conditions in the region. The euro was last quoted with a 0.8% loss at $1.376. DJ30 -134.34 NASDAQ -29.75 SP500 -13.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 490/425 mln/1825 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 635/180 mln/2200

10:35 am : Commodities are starting off the week in the red, while the dollar index continues to trade near its session high. The CRB Commodity Index, which is mixed overall this morning, fell as far as 314.64 and is currently down 0.7% at 314.86.

Energy markets are showing modest weakness, while the agriculture space is showing the most weakness, especially in soft commodities (coffee -4.5%, cocoa -1.8%).

Crude oil was just above the $87 level and barely showing a gain just ahead of pit trading. However, shortly after pit trading began, crude fell into the red and hit a new session low of $85.89/barrel about 40 minutes ago. In current activity, crude is down 0.6% at $86.25/barrel. Natural gas is trading 0.7% lower at $3.68/MMBtu.

Gold has been chopping around the unchanged line this morning and is currently just under the flat line; now at $1680.90, down $2.10. Silver futures has been in the red over the past hour and is now down 0.7% at $31.97/oz.DJ30 -139.26 NASDAQ -27.81 SP500 -14.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 475/388 mln/1825 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 620/166 mln/2207

10:00 am : Stocks have come under a recent flurry of selling pressure, which has knocked the major equity averages to new morning lows. The effort has been relatively broad.

Financials are back to a 1.5% loss, but it's the materials sector that is in the worst shape of all. As a group, materials stocks are down 2.0%. Diversified metals and miners and steel stocks are among the poorest performers in the basic materials space. DJ30 -90.98 NASDAQ -19.84 SP500 -10.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 490/125 mln/1615 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 670/65 mln/2035

09:45 am : Financials quickly fell to a loss of about 1.5%, but the sector has almost halved that. Citigroup (C 29.33, +0.93) is showing leadership after posting a better-than-expected quarterly report. Wells Fargo (WFC 25.27, -1.40) has fallen more than 5% following an earnings miss, however.

Utilities, telecom, and consumer staples stocks -- all defensive in orientation -- are holding up the best this morning. Each sector has limited its loss to only 0.1%. DJ30 -57.86 NASDAQ -11.15 SP500 -6.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.30. Stock futures suggest that the broad market will be challenged to build on last week's climb, which made for the best weekly performance by the S&P 500 in more than two years. Pressure this morning comes as many market participants continue to take their cues from Europe's major bourses, which have faltered in recent action. Europe's bourses, and domestic stock futures for that matter, had been helped higher earlier amid reports that European officials have been pressed to quickly develop a comprehensive solution that will help stabilize the region's precarious fiscal and financial conditions. However, suspicion that such a solution will continue to elude leaders has undermined sentiment.

Given the magnitude and implications of problems in Europe, earnings have been relegated to something of secondary concern. As such, an upside earnings surprise from Citigroup (C) has only lifted its shares ahead of the open. Meanwhile, an earnings miss by Wells Fargo (WFC) has weighed on the stock in premarket trade.

Data hasn't done anything to excite early participants. More specifically, the latest Empire State Manufacturing Index, which barely improved from the prior month, remains negative. September industrial production numbers, which were released only moments ago, showed a 0.2% increase, just as analysts had generally expected.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.80. Stock futures have slipped some more in recent trade. Meanwhile, action among commodities has been rather subdued. Oil prices are up 0.3% to $87.05 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Natural gas prices are up 0.5% to $3.72 per MMbtu. Precious metals have been quiet in recent trade. That has left gold prices just 0.1% higher at $1685.50 per ounce, while silver prices are up only fractionally to $32.20 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.80. Still trailing fair value by a narrow margin, stock futures haven't really moved in response to the Empire State Manufacturing Index for October. It improved marginally to -8.5 from -8.8 in the prior month, but still came short of the -4.0 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.80. Stock futures have drifted lower so that a modestly lower start is now expected to follow last week's 6% climb, which made for the broad market's best weekly performance in more than two years. The relatively tepid tone comes as Europe's major bourses trade in lackluster fashion and the euro retreats against the greenback. The underwhelming action there follows a weekend G20 summit, in which leaders of Europe were pressed to resolve the region's debt woes within a week. Financial outfits Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) recently reported their latest quarterly results. Citigroup posted a better-than-expected bottom line, thereby boosting its shares by about 1% in premarket trade. In contrast, Wells Fargo came short of the consensus earnings estimate, causing shares to fall 3% ahead of the open. Still on the calendar, the latest Empire State Manufacturing Index will be available at the bottom of the hour. Monthly industrial prodution data follows at 9:15 AM ET.

06:45 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.80.

06:45 am : Nikkei...8879.60...+131.60...+1.50%. Hang Seng...18873.99...+372.20...+2.00%.

06:45 am : FTSE...5518.07...+51.70...+1.00%. DAX...6023.81...+56.60...+1.00%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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