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 Post subject: October 11th Tuesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +13.10
PostPosted: Tue Oct 11, 2011 10:30 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +13.10 points or $1310.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=95&t=1024.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=144&t=1237

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Tech helped lead the Nasdaq to a strong gain, but the broader market finished only fractionally above the flat line.

Participants opted to take a breather after the aggressive bout of buying in the prior session. Action was also subdued as participants awaited the EFSF vote by Slovakia and traders showed continued concern about the specter of a default by Greece, despite the Troika's decision to make another disbursement of financial aid to flagging country.

A lack of enthusiasm in Europe also left the euro to drift lower. It eventually rebounded against the greenback to end the day with a marginal gain at $1.364.

The Nasdaq scored another solid gain with help from the tech sector, which ended the day with a 0.6% gain. That has the tech-rich Index at a 10-day high.

Alcoa (AA 10.30, +0.21) offered leadership to the Dow ahead of its latest quarterly report, which unofficially marks the start of earnings season, but the blue chip average stayed close to the flat line all session. The broad-based S&P 500 did the same.

Treasuries stayed under heavy pressure all session. That took the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is up to almost 2.20%. Since the U.S. bond market was closed yesterday in observance of Columbus Day, Treasuries were left to price in the stock market's prior session surge, which was actually its best single-day jump since August. They didn't really benefit from results of a $32 billion auction of 3-year Notes. The auction drew a yield of 0.544% on a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.30. The indirect bidder participation rate came in at almost 38%.

Advancing Sectors: Tech +0.6%, Industrials +0.4%, Consumer Discretionary +0.3%, Materials +0.2%, Energy +0.1%
Declining Sectors: Financials -0.1%, Consumer Staples -0.2%, Health Care -0.4%, Telecom -1.0%, Utilities -1.1%DJ30 -16.88 NASDAQ +16.98 NQ100 +0.7% R2K +0.6% SP400 +0.1% SP500 +0.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1527/1.66 bln/994 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1666/882 mln/1320

3:30 pm : It was a quiet session for the precious metals, as the markets continued to wait for the EFSF vote in Slovakia, the final and maybe most contested of the 17 EU members. Gold ended lower by 0.5% at $1661 per ounce, while silver finished up 0.3% at $32 per ounce.

Crude oil futures, which ended higher by 0.5% at $85.81 per barrel, also had a relatively quiet session. Futures were able to recoup overnight losses after the dollar gave up earlier gains. They traded to $86.64 in afternoon trade, but pulled back from those highs heading into the close. Natural gas ended up 1.9% at $3.61 per MMBtu.DJ30 -25.43 NASDAQ +10.47 SP500 +1.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1392/1.3 bln/1115 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1622/609.2 mln/1403

3:00 pm : Lackluster trade continues into the final hour of the session. The action, or arguably inaction, precedes the unofficial start of earnings season tonight. Dow component Alcoa (AA 10.25, +0.16) kicks things off with its latest quarterly report after the close today. The stock is near its 10-day high ahead of that announcement.DJ30 -23.88 NASDAQ +12.51 SP500 -0.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1240/1.12 bln/1260 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1435/515 mln/1520

2:30 pm : Stocks have slipped a bit in recent action. That has left the major averages to resume mixed trade. The lackluster action comes in contrast to the prior session, when stocks collectively climbed more than 3% in their best one-day pop since August. The move also gave the S&P 500 a close that was comfortably above its 50-day moving average -- that's something that hasn't happened since July.DJ30 -24.75 NASDAQ +12.12 SP500 -0.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1365/1.00 bln/1120 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1620/470 mln/1325

2:00 pm : Stocks have made an upward move in recent trade. Although that has left the Dow only incrementally positive and the S&P 500 clinging to a slight gain, the Nasdaq is now up nicely. Tech continues to underpin the Nasdaq's strength this session.DJ30 +2.84 NASDAQ +18.10 SP500 +2.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1220/950 mln/1260 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1450/435 mln/1485

1:30 pm : Treasuries haven't been helped by results from a $32 billion auction of 3-year Notes. The auction drew a yield of 0.544% on a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.30. The indirect bidder participation rate came in at almost 38%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.15 and an indirect bidder rate of 35%. An average of the past dozen auctions gives a bid-to-cover of 3.16 and an indirect bidder rate of almost 36%.DJ30 +1.06 NASDAQ +11.38 SP500 +1.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1115/855 mln/1350 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1300/390 mln/1595

1:00 pm : The major equity averages have been muddling along in mixed fashion all session. The lackluster action comes after stocks scored their strongest single-session surge in almost seven weeks.

Per usual, early traders took most of their cues from Europe, where the region's major bourses moved listlessly after scoring strong gains of their own in recent sessions. Slovakia has attracted attention since political fighting there has kept officials from signing off on the expansion of the EFSF, resulting in some uncertainty over the matter. Meanwhile, news that the Troika will make another disbursement of financial aid to Greece failed to regenerate buying interest, mostly because the short-term nature of the aid doesn't fully diminish the threat of a default by the country over a longer time span. Greece's Athex 20 tumbled almost 4% in its latest round of trade.

Even though the S&P 500 and the Dow have spent most of the session chopping along the neutral line, the Nasdaq has managed to make its way modestly higher. The Nasdaq's relative strength comes with help from tech, which is the only sector that has successfully staged any kind of meaningful gain. Tech stocks are currently up 0.6%, collectively.

Financials, which catapulted to a 5% gain in the prior session, have seen mixed interest today. The sector slid to an early loss of more than 1.5%, but then rallied into positive territory. The sector has since slid back into the red so that it trades with a 0.4% loss. Many traders await details on the Volcker Rule, which is expected to be released today by the FDIC. DJ30 -17.67 NASDAQ +9.33 SP500 -0.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1135/780 mln/1305 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1325/350 mln/1565

12:30 pm : Treasuries have been under heavy pressure all session. As such, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is up to almost 2.20%. Since the U.S. bond market was closed yesterday in observance of Columbus Day, Treasuries are just now pricing in the stock market's prior session surge, which was actually its best single-day jump since August. Treasuries could see some volatility with the release of results from an auction of 3-year Notes at the top of the hour.DJ30 +1.06 NASDAQ +15.77 SP500 +1.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1270/700 mln/1150 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1570/315 mln/1290

12:00 pm : Europe's major bourses recently closed for the day. A move up from their session lows helped Germany's DAX eke out a 0.1% gain, while France's CAC cut its loss to 0.5% and Britain's FTSE finished just 0.3% below where it began. However, Greece's Athex 20 fell 3.9% as traders there shrugged off the decision by the Troika to disburse another round of financial aid to the country, which continues to be haunted by the specter of default over the longer term.

As for domestic action, stocks remain comfortably above their session lows, but the broad market remains challenged to stage any kind of meaningful bounce. DJ30 -2.76 NASDAQ +13.59 SP500 +1.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1250/635 mln/1130 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1480/285 mln/1560

11:30 am : The major equity averages have drifted lower in recent action. That has left them to trade in mixed fashion.

Tech, which represents the largest sector by market weight, continues to hold up relatively well. The sector currently sports a 0.6% gain. Materials stocks, up 0.2% as a group, make up the only other sector in positive territory.

Financials had been a drag on trade in the early going. At its low the sector was down more than 1.5%. However, the sector has since rebounded. Its climb actually took it into positive territory, but slowed momentum has left it to slip to a slight loss. The sector is now down by a mere 0.1%. Bank of America (BAC 6.39, +0.11) is a leader in the bunch for the second straight session. DJ30 -14.99 NASDAQ +11.32 SP500 -0.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1095/545 mln/1245 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1305/240 mln/1515

11:00 am : The Dow and S&P 500 both managed to move into positive territory in recent trade, but the pair has failed to extend the move. Instead, they are both stuck near the neutral line. The Nasdaq has managed to put together a solid gain, though.

The Nasdaq's relative strength comes as large-cap issues like Apple (AAPL 398.60, +9.79) and Amazon.com (AMZN 235.29, +3.97) tick higher. Not all tech-related components are performing so well, however. Cisco (CSCO 16.95, -0.14) has lagged all session and currently contends with a loss of almost 1%. DJ30 -19.45 NASDAQ +13.15 SP500 +0.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1190/390 mln/1070 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1400/175 mln/1355

10:35 am : Strength in the dollar index is creating price pressure for a portion of the commodity complex this morning. However, the energy, metals and agriculture sectors remain mixed.

Crude oil has been in the red all morning. The energy component fell below the $84.00 level just before pit trading began earlier as it fell to its current session low of $83.97/barrel. In current action, crude is down 0.6% at $84.91/barrel. Natural gas is up 0.2% at $3.55/MMBtu.

Gold has shown modest losses for the majority of the morning activity. It trended higher over the last hour and 40 minutes, pushing it back near the unchanged line; now at $1669.10 -0.10%. Silver followed the same pattern as gold this morning, but is currently just above the unchanged line, now at $32.04, up 0.2%.DJ30 -13.93 NASDAQ +12.26 SP500 +0.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1201/364 mln/1060 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1387/163 mln/1380

10:00 am : The Nasdaq recently poked into positive territory, but has been unable to extend the move as both the Dow and S&P 500 remain mired in negative territory.

Tech continues to fight off selling pressure, leaving it to trade at the flat line, but energy stocks have run ahead so that the sector is the only one to sport a gain. Energy stocks, as a group, are up 0.3% at the moment. Oil and gas equipment, services, and exploration plays are providing leadership to the sector. Schlumberger (SLB 66.68, +0.89) and Halliburton (HAL 35.55, +0.71) are a couple of top performers in the early going. Their strength flies in the face of lower oil prices, which were last quoted at $84.55 per barrel for a 1.0% loss. DJ30 -36.03 NASDAQ -1.76 SP500 -3.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 475/85 mln/1550 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 510/50 mln/2080

09:45 am : The major market averages are down this morning. The slide has been led by the financial sector, which is already wrestling with a 1.5% loss. The sector's downturn marks a weak follow-up to its 5% surge in the prior session. Although some pieces of the Volcker Rule have already been leaked, it is expected to be unveiled in its complete form some time today.

There aren't any major sectors in positive territory, but tech has managed to limit its loss to just 0.1%. That has helped the Nasdaq maintain a leg up on its counterparts. DJ30 -60.60 NASDAQ -6.37 SP500 -6.33 NASDAQ Vol N/A NYSE Vol N/A

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.50. Broad market stock futures suggest a marked loss at the open of today's trade. However, the push against stocks comes only after the S&P 500 rallied more than 3% yesterday, or more than 8% over the course of the past five sessions. Financials led the latest leg of action and will likely remain in focus this session, given the expected release of the Volcker Rule. Action in Europe also continues to guide traders. The bourses there are down today after staging their own strong streak of gains. Their slip comes amid an apathetic response to news that another tranche of funds from the Troika will be disbursed to Greece, which continues to grapple with threats regarding long-term solvency. The dampened mood in Europe has put pressure on the euro, which is currently down 0.4% to $1.357 after it surged some 2% yesterday for one of its best single-session performances in more than a year.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.00. During the first few minutes of pit trade, oil prices are down 1.0% to $84.55 per barrel. That follow's the energy component's near 3% gain in the prior session. As for natural gas, prices are up 0.8% to $3.57 per MMbtu, building on the near 2% gain that they staged yesterday. Precious metals have been bid lower. Specifically, gold prices were last quoted at $1663 per ounce for a 0.5% loss, which makes for a rather weak follow-up to their gain of more than 2% in the prior session. Meanwhile, silver prices have slid 1.1% to $31.63 per ounce after they closed yesterday's trade more than 3% higher.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.30. Following a strong streak of robust gains, participants in Europe are stepping in to pare their positions. Many traders there have shrugged off the decision by the Troika to disburse another round of financial aid to Greece since the decision does little to restore confidence in the country for the longer term. Germany's DAX is presently down 0.7% as declining issues edge out advancers. Metro AG and Allianz (AZ) have been hit relatively hard, but their drag on the broad market has been diminished by strength in Bayer AG and Deutsche Boerse. In France, the CAC is off by 0.9%. Schneider Electric and Essilor International have hampered action. BNP Paribas and Societe Generale are showing strength, though. Britain's FTSE has fallen to a 0.9% loss. Man Group Plc, down 4%, is in the worst shape, while Kingfisher Plc tops the list of advancing issues with its 2% gain. Industrial production in the United Kingdom increased by 0.2% during August after a 0.2% decline in the prior month.

Overnight action in Asia was inspired by the strong performance staged on Wall Street yesterday. In turn, Japan's Nikkei marched to a 2.0% gain. Komatsu and Sumco were the top performers by percent gained -- both advanced in excess of 6%. Honda Motor (HMC) and Sony (SNE) were close behind; the pair boasted gains in excess of 5%. Nikon Corp was at the other end ot the extreme. It fell nearly 4%. According to the monthly report from the Bank of Japan, economic activity in the country has continued to pick up. Hong Kong's Hang Seng swung to a 2.4% gain. Agricultural Bank of China offered leadership as it surged. Many other bank stocks followed. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite underperformed the other two major Asian averages. It mustered a mere 0.1% gain as natural resource plays offset strength in financial issues.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.50. An advance of more than 3% yesterday gave the stock market its best single-session bounce since August. Over the course of the past five sessions, the stock market has rallied more than 8%. Buying interest has waned this morning, though. In turn, stock futures are trading slightly below fair value, suggesting a relatively weak start for today's session. Europe remains in focus for many market participants. The continent's major bourses are down today, uninspired by plans by the Troika to release another round of financial aid to Greece. Despite the short-term support, many are unconvinced about the country's prospects over a longer timeline. After one of its strongest rallies in more than a year, the euro is down modestly this morning. It was last quoted with a 0.2% loss at $1.360. The euro's slip has helped give the Dollar Index a 0.2% gain. Meanwhile, Treasuries are currently under sharp pressure as they make up for missing out on the action yesterday, when the Bond market was closed in observance of Columbus Day. Results from an auction of 3-year Notes at 1:00 PM ET will be a point of interest for fixed income traders. The calendar is without any major economic release and there haven't been any meaningful corporate announcements thus far, but the latest quarterly report from Dow component Alcoa (AA) tonight marks the unofficial start to earnings season.

06:45 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.30.

06:45 am : Nikkei...8773.68...+168.10...+1.90%. Hang Seng...18141.59...+430.50...+2.40%.

06:45 am : FTSE...5356.52...-42.50...-0.80%. DAX...5775.26...-72.00...-1.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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