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 Post subject: September 29th Thursday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +59.70
PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:08 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +59.70 points or $5970.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=1014.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=143&t=1197

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Gain as Jobless Claims Offset Tech Retreat

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rose, rebounding from a 1 percent decline in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as lower-than-estimated claims for unemployment benefits helped offset losses by consumer and technology shares.

Dow Ends Higher After A Wild Day

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Maureen Farrell September 29, 2011: 4:34 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks went on a roller-coaster ride Thursday, as investors parsed through positive news in U.S. and Europe. After storming out of the gate in the morning, the Dow and S&P 500 bounced between positive and negative territory before a late rally put both firmly higher.

Investors initially dove into stocks following better-than-expected readings on U.S. economic growth and some signs of stabilization in Europe.

But lacking conviction that a broader recovery could come along or that Europe indeed has the tools to stave off a sovereign debt crisis, investors lost appetite for risk by mid-afternoon. The market bounced up and down before rallying into the close.

"The market has been trading more on hope in general and hope on Europe," said Jim Barnes, senior fixed-income portfolio manager at National Penn Investors Trust. "The only thing that's improving are people's comments, but we haven't seen any type of credible plan that looks like it could be implemented."

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) closed up 143 points, or 1.3%. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed up 9 points, or 0.8%, after earlier being up as much as 2.2%. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) fell 11 points, or 0.4%.

Investors stayed in financial stocks, which were among Thursday's biggest winners. Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) closed the day up between 1% and 6%.

Tech stocks were the laggards, led by an 11% drop in Netflix (NFLX). The company has incensed subscribers by raising prices to offset its costs. And its latest move to rebrand its DVD-by-mail service has met with a lukewarm reception at best. In fact, Netflix's stock has dropped nearly 50% in the past month alone.

Before the market opened, Germany's parliament approved expanded powers for the eurozone's bailout fund. Europe's debt crisis has kept investors on edge for months.

* Euro stability fund is a mirage

Investors were expecting Germany to approve the measure but many experts say much more needs to be done to really solve Europe's debt problems so that weighed on sentiment as well.

"The market has been under so much pressure recently, it seems like rallies are somewhat limited at this point until the wheels are in motion on this [Greek] bailout," said Phil Streible, senior market strategist at MF Global.

On Wednesday, stocks closed down, ending a three-day winning streak for all three indexes.

Economy: Modestly improved economic numbers, including gross domestic product growth at 1.3% and roughly 391,000 Americans filing new unemployment claims last week, still indicate that the U.S. economy is sputtering.

"Today we had one of the best initial claims of the year, but that doesn't mean that the jobless situation is getting any better," said Paul Larson, equities strategist at Morningstar. "It means that maybe people are getting laid off at a slightly slower rate."

Rounding out the trifecta of economic news, a report from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales fell 1.2% in August. That was better than economists had anticipated.

Companies: Shares of Nokia (NOK) jumped after the phonemaker said it will cut another 3,500 jobs in 2012 to reduce costs.

AMD (AMD, Fortune 500) shares fell sharply after the chipmaker cautioned investors it forecasts slower revenue growth in the third quarter than originally expected.

General Motors' (GM, Fortune 500) shares rose after ratings firm Standard & Poor's raised the automaker's credit rating to BB+ from BB-.

World markets: European stocks were mixed. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) closed down 0.4%, while the DAX (DAX) in Germany jumped 1.1% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) moved up 1.1%.

Asian markets ended mixed. China's Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) fell 1.1%, while Japan's Nikkei (N225) rose 1%. Hong Kong was closed due to a typhoon.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro and the Japanese yen, but rose against the British pound.

Oil for November delivery gained $1.45 to $82.64 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery jumped $3.10 to $1,621.10 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury increased, pushing the yield down to 1.96%.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : The major equity averages were up with big gains before broad selling pressure cut down stocks in afternoon action. A late bounce made for a better looking finish, though.

Stocks ended the prior session in weak fashion, but buyers came rushing back in this morning. Their interest was stirred by news that Germany gave its support to the expansion of the European Financial Stability Facility, which is aimed at shaping up the otherwise precarious financial conditions of the region.

For the first time in a few weeks data also proved encouraging. The latest weekly initial jobless claims count dropped by 37,000 from the prior week to 391,000, which is the first time in more than a month that initial claims fell below 400,000. The consensus among economists polled by Brieifng.com had been pegged at 419,000 initial claims.

What's more, the final reading for second quarter GDP showed growth of 1.3%, which not only marks an increase from the 1.0% growth rate posted in the prior reading, but it also exceeds the 1.2% growth that had been broadly expected.

Both the Dow and S&P 500 pushed ahead to gains in excess of 2% in the early going. Financials led the advance, but tech stocks had a harder time attracting buyers.

Tech's sluggishness eventually gave way to outright weakness, which weighed heavily on the Nasdaq. In fact, the Nasdaq descended all the way to a 2.3% loss after it had been up with a gain of almost 2% in the opening minutes of the session. A bounce in the final hour helped the tech-rich Index recover, however.

Several Chinese stocks also sold off in aggressive fashion, but never really rebounded. Youku.com (YOKU 16.24, -3.64), SINA Corp (SINA 73.23, -7.87), and Baidu.com (BIDU 110.29, -11.13) all tumbled amid reports that suggested authorities are investigating accounting irregularities at many US-listed Chinese companies. Also in the backdrop, China's stock market underperformed other global averages in overnight action by falling 1% to a new 15-month low.

Tomorrow marks the final session of the week and of the third quarter. The S&P 500, up 2% during the course of the past four sessions, is trying to score its third weekly gain in 10 weeks, but such a lengthy stretch of losses has the market down 12% this quarter. That's the worst quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2008.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +2.8%, Utilities +1.5%, Energy +1.4%, Industrials +1.4%, Consumer Staples +1.0%, Health Care +0.8%, Telecom +0.8%
Unchanged: Materials
Declining Sectors: Tech -0.4%, Consumer Discretionary -0.9%DJ30 +143.08 NASDAQ -10.82 NQ100 -1.0% R2K +1.7% SP400 +1.0% SP500 +9.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1580/2.29 bln/957 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2164/1.12 bln/855

3:30 pm : It was another quiet session for gold. It chopped around the flat line for a majority of the session, but eked out a gain of 0.1% to close at $1617.30 per ounce. Silver ended up 1% at $30.53 per ounce.

Natural gas futures had a volatile session following this morning's inventory data, which showed a larger-than-expected build. Prices dropped approximately six cents on that data, to lows at $3.69, but spent the remainder of the session rallying off those lows to end with losses of 1.5% at $3.75 per MMBu. Crude oil ended up 1.2% at $82.14 per barrel. Futures spent the session chopping around in positive territory. DJ30 +22.18 NASDAQ -38.86 SP500 -4.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1005/1.71 bln/1485 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1445/690 mln/1519

3:00 pm : Sellers have eased up a bit, but stocks remain near session lows. In the wake of the sell-off, utilities represent the only major sector still trading with any kind of a meaningful gain. As a group, utilities are up 0.6%, which comes in stark contrast to the 2.7% loss that has hit the consumer discretionary sector.DJ30 -17.44 NASDAQ -50.81 SP500 -7.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1100/1.56 bln/1375 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1615/615 mln/1330

2:30 pm : Weakness has become increasingly widespread as selling pressure broadens to take stocks to new session lows. The action resembles that of the prior session, when stocks had started trade in positive territory, but eventually fell subject to aggressive selling pressure.

The interest in selling stocks is making for a weak finish to the third quarter, which is shaping up to be the worst quarterly performance since a 22% drop in the fourth quarter of 2008. As things currently stand, the S&P 500 is on pace for a quarterly loss of 13%. DJ30 +20.17 NASDAQ -42.26 SP500 -4.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 935/1.38 bln/1530 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1440/550 mln/1500

2:00 pm : A recent flurry of selling pressure took stocks out of their afternoon trading range to new session lows. The action actually took the S&P 500 into negative territory for a brief moment, but the benchmark Index has since made its way back above the flat line. As for the other major averages, the Dow continues to outperform its counterparts as it fights to preserve a strong gain, but the Nasdaq has extended its slide to a loss of more than 1%.

Tech stocks continue to weigh on action. The sector, which is the largest by market weight, is now down 0.9%. Consumer discretionary plays are actually in worse shape; they're grappling with a 1.7% loss. No other sector is in negative territory. DJ30 +71.79 NASDAQ -31.52 SP500 +1.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1230/1.13 bln/1200 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1975/470 mln/960

1:30 pm : Treasuries have trimmed some of their losses, but pressure persists in the wake of an auction of 7-year Notes. As in the auctions conducted earlier this week, demand was near the top of its 12-month range.

Specific statistics from the auction include a bid-to-cover of 3.02, dollar demand of $87.6 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 41.6%. For comparison, the prior auction produced a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.76, dollar demand of $80.0 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 51.7%. An average of the past six auctions gives a bid-to-cover of 2.78, dollar demand of $80.6 billion, and an indirect bidder 43.2%. DJ30 +112.13 NASDAQ -13.60 SP500 +6.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1520/1.02 bln/900 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2270/430 mln/665

1:00 pm : Renewed selling pressure has interrupted the market's recent rebound attempt and threatened to take stocks back to session lows. Although that has meant a loss for the Nasdaq, both the Dow and S&P 500 continue to trade with solid gains.

A positive reaction to news that Germany approved a plan to expand a facility intended to improve financial stability in Europe, a surprise drop in weekly initial jobless claims below 400,000, and an upward revision in second quarter GDP helped take stocks sharply higher this morning. Buying boosted both the Dow and S&P 500 to a gain of more than 2% with help from financials, which are currently up 2.1%.

Despite support from the financial sector, the broad market has surrendered some of its gains in response to weakness among large-cap tech issues. The drag of large-cap tech has been especially burdensome for the Nasdaq, which has been mired near the neautral line for the past couple of hours. It had been up almost 2% this morning. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 is down about 0.5%.

Outside of equities, the dollar has managed to cut into its loss. In turn, it now lags a basket of major foreign currencies by about 0.3%. Most weakness has come against the euro, which had traded above $1.360 in the early going, but it is now at about $1.359 with a 0.4% gain.

Oil prices are comfortably above $83 per barrel, boasting a gain of more than 2%. Gold has been dancing along the flat line all day; it was last quoted with a fractional loss at $1617 per ounce.

Treasuries are down with varied losses ahead of results from an auction of 7-year Notes that are due at any moment. DJ30 +131.39 NASDAQ -7.64 SP500 +8.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1470/935 mln/935 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2175/390 mln/750

12:30 pm : The market's recent rebound effort has lost some of its momentum, but overall action in the broad market remains upbeat.

Although the stock market has paused to take a breather from its recent rebound, oil prices have managed to add to their gains. Support for the energy component has crude oil futures prices at a fresh session high of $83.45 per barrel, which makes for a 2.7% gain, but that hasn't done much for oil and gas exploration plays like Halliburton (HAL 32.50, +0.03) and Baker Hughes (BHI 48.64, -0.12), which are putting on a lackluster performance, despite the bounce in oil prices and strength in the broad equity market. DJ30 +178.16 NASDAQ +4.64 SP500 +13.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1550/735 mln/820 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2235/305 mln/645

12:00 pm : Stocks are trying to reclaim their gains, but remain markedly below the highs that were set in the early going. While the Dow doesn't have as far to go to return to its best level of the day, the Nasdaq has even more distance to make up. At its session high, the Nasdaq was up about 1.8%, which is six times the size of its current gain.DJ30 +174.11 NASDAQ +6.99 SP500 +13.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1550/735 mln/820 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2235/310 mln/645

11:30 am : The Nasdaq remains mired near the neutral line after a steep downturn from its morning high, which made for a gain well in excess of 1%. Both the Dow and S&P 500 are still up nicely on the day, though.

The dollar has had a difficult time overcoming strength in the euro following the approval by Germany to expand the EFSF, which is a plan intended to stabilize financial conditions in Europe. The duro recently notched a new session high near $1.364, which makes for a 0.8% gain. That has helped send the Dollar Index down to a 0.6% loss. DJ30 +167.79 NASDAQ +2.40 SP500 +11.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1470/612 mln/870 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2110/260 mln/740

11:00 am : Stocks have pulled back since staging a strong advance at the open. There is no clear cause or catalyst to account for the retreat.

Despite the downturn, the Dow continues to sport a gain in excess of 1%, thaks mostly to support from its financial components. However, the Nasdaq has actually fallen into negative territory. Its weakness stems from pressure against large-cap issues like Apple (AAPL 395.50, -1.51), Google (GOOG 526.71, -2.13), and Amazon.com (AMZN 223.85, -5.86). DJ30 +159.20 NASDAQ -0.42 SP500 +10.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1585/435 mln/705 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2250/195 mln/585

10:35 am : The latest weekly natural gas inventory data showed a build of 111 bcf, which is greater than the build of 100 bcf that had been expected. Natural gas prices have reacted by moving deeper into negative territory so that the energy component now trades with a 2.5% loss at $3.70 per MMbtu.

Meanwhile, oil prices are holding on to impressive gains. They were last quoted 1.4% higher at $82.30 per barrel.

Silver prices have surrendered most of their early gains. As a result, the precious metal now trades at $30.25 per ounce, which makes for a gan of just 0.3%. It had been up 1% earlier this morning.

Gold prices haven't moved much this morning. The yellow metal was last quoted with a 0.2% loss at $1615.20 per ounce. DJ30 +168.13 NASDAQ +3.79 SP500 +11.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1845/290 mln/410 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2480/140 mln/300

10:05 am : Stocks have eased off of their early session highs, but continue to boast big gains.

Just released, pending home sales data for August showed a 1.2% month-over-month decline. Following the 1.3% monthly drop of July, economists polled by Briefing.com had generally expected a 1.5% decline. Shares of homebuilders continue to generally trade in step with the broad market in the wake of the data -- SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB 13.80, +0.23). DJ30 +229.51 NASDAQ +29.78 SP500 +19.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1920/90 mln/195 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2570/60 mln/150

09:45 am : The Dow is up more than 200 points so that it sports a 2% gain. JPMorgan Chase (JPM 31.82, +1.35) and Bank of America (BAC 6..43, +0.27) are primary leaders among blue chips.

Broad strength among diversified financial services stocks and assorted banking plays has helped the financial sector sprint out to a 3.0% gain. At the moment, no other sector is close to matching that. DJ30 +224.67 NASDAQ +42.81 SP500 +21.43

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +20.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +40.00. Aggressive selling late in the prior session sent stocks to steep losses, which snapped a three-session streak of gains, but buyers are stepping back in this morning. The accompanying bid has been a strong one, such that the cash market is expected to open with a gain well in excess of 1%. Renewed support comes in response to news that the expansion of the EFSF, which is intended to bolster financial conditions in Europe, has been approved by Germany. Premarket participants have also been encouraged by news that weekly initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly below 400,000 for the first time in more than a month. The final reading on second quarter GDP also showed upwardly revised growth, which actually exceeded what many economists had anticipated.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +18.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +37.70. Oil prices were clipped for a 3% loss yesterday, but they are up 1.2% to $82.22 per barrel this morning. In an extension of their 2% decline during the prior session, natural gas prices are down 0.9% to $3.77 per MMBtu. The action precedes the latest weekly inventory report, which is scheduled for 10:30 AM ET. Precious metals are also mixed this morning. Specifically, gold prices are down fractionally to $1616 per ounce following a 2% decline during yesterday's pit trade. Meanwhile, silver prices are up 1.0% to $30.45 per ounce after a 4% fall during the prior session's pit trade.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +16.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +26.70. Stock futures have rallied in response to some stronger-than-expected data. Initial jobless claims for the week ended September 24 totaled 391,000, which is down 37,000 week over week and less than the 419,000 initial claims that had been broadly expected among economists polled by Briefing.com. Continuing claims came down to 3.73 million from 3.75 million.

The final reading on second quarter GDP showed growth of 1.3%, which represents an increase from the 1.0% growth rate posted in the prior reading. Economists had generally expected GDP to improve to a growth rate of 1.2%. The GDP deflator had been expected to remain at a 2.4% increase, but it ticked incrementally higher to reflect an increase of 2.5%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.20. Stocks slumped to steep losses yesterday, but they have garnered support ahead of today's open. Renewed support comes as participants react positively to news that Germany has voted in favor of an expansion of the European Financial Stability Facility, which is aimed at shaping up the otherwise precarious financial conditions of the region. The news has also helped take the euro higher against the greenback; it was last quoted with a 0.5% gain at $1.361.

The final reading on second quarter GDP will be released at the bottom of the hour, along with the latest weekly initial jobless claims tally. Pending home sales will be posted at 10:00 AM ET. Outside of economic data, weekly natural gas inventory numbers will be available at 10:30 AM ET. Results from an auction of 7-year Notes are expected at 1:00 PM ET.

06:55 am : Nikkei...8701.23...+85.60...+1.00%. Hang Seng...Closed.........

06:54 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +13.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +24.30.

06:54 am : FTSE...5196.95...-20.70...-0.40%. DAX...5594.44...+16.00...+0.30%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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