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 Post subject: September 28th Wednesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +35.90
PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 6:40 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +35.90 points or $3590.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=1012.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=143&t=1197

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Fall as Concern Grows Over European Crisis

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks declined, halting a three-day rally for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, amid growing concern that European leaders are divided over how to handle Greece's debt crisis.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks got a bid in the early going, but a lack of leadership invited selling pressure, which accelerated in afternoon action, leaving stocks to settle at session lows with sizable losses.

Hope that a plan intended to bring stability fiscal and financial conditions in Europe is close to being presented helped take the stock market more than 3% higher during the course of the past two sessions. That also helped prop up stocks this morning, but early gains ultimately proved fleeting as participants resorted to selling after they failed to receive any details related to the rumored plan. Traders also turned against the euro, which was up about 0.7% at its session high, but finished with a fractional loss against the greenback.

A lack of leadership also made it difficult for stocks to hold off sellers. The listless action initially left stocks to spend most of the morning and early afternoon chopping along near the neutral line before pressure picked up in the final few hours.

Although weakness became widespread, materials stocks had to grapple with some of the most aggressive selling. Pressure, compounded by weakness among commodities, sent the sector to a 4.5% loss.

Broad market weakness imbued shares of Accenture (ACN 53.83, +0.18), which settled with only a modest gain after the stock had set a monthly high in response to an upside earnings surprise. Jabil Circuit (JBL 18.84, +1.46) also posted better-than-expected earnings, but its shares did a far better job of preserving gains.

Amazon.com (AMZN 229.50, +5.29) stretched to a new weekly high amid a positive response to the release of its new family of Kindle products.

Despite the stock market's slide, Treasuries failed to find buyers. Instead, the benchmark 10-year Note moved lower once again, even after results from an auction of 5-year Notes proved solid. The auction drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.04, dollar demand of $106.4 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 45.9%.

Data failed to portray an improved picture of economic activity. Total durable goods orders and orders less transportation slipped 0.1% during August. A 0.1% increase and a 0.2% decline, respectively, had been generally expected.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Materials -4.5%, Energy -3.0%, Financials -2.9%, Industrials -2.4%, Health Care -1.7%, Consumer Staples -1.7%, Consumer Discretionary -1.7%, Tech -1.4%, Utilities -0.9%, Telecom -0.6%DJ30 -179.79 NASDAQ -55.25 NQ100 -1.5% R2K -4.2% SP400 -3.4% SP500 -24.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 401/1.93 bln/2116 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 522/1.05 bln/2523

3:30 pm : Questions about what will happen next in Eurozone helped the dollar recoup earlier loses and pressured commodities. Precious metals resumed their downward move, following yesterday's bounce, and have extended that sell-off in afternhours trade. Gold futures shed 2.1% to finish at $1618.20 per ounce, while silver futures closed off 4.4% at $30.14 per ounce. In afterhours trade, gold futures tested the $1600 level but have managed to hold it, thus far.

Crude oil futures, which settled lower by 3.2% at $81.21 per barrel, saw very little reaction to this morning's inventory data -which showed an inline build. The rebound in the dollar, coupled with a broad based sell-off in commodities, pushed futures lower throughout the session, however, and crude ended near its session lows. Natural gas shed 2% to close at $3.75 per MMBtu.DJ30 -88.74 NASDAQ -29.31 SP500 -9.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 524/1.5 bln/1976 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 672/686.9 mln/2388

3:00 pm : Stocks enter the final hour of the day only narrowly above their session lows, but the dollar has managed to rally into positive territory so that it now sports a fractional gain against a basket of major foreign currencies. The greenback had been down this morning as participants showed favor for the euro amid hopes that a plan to stabilize conditions in Europe may soon be presented, but the euro has since surrendered its gain so that it is now unchanged for the day.DJ30 -54.42 NASDAQ -22.92 SP500 -11.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 530 /1.27 bln/1930 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 675/570 mln/2330

2:30 pm : The major market averages remain in the red. Selling pressure has been even more intense around small and mid-cap stocks, regarded as riskier issues due to their lack of maturity and less diversified operations. Their weakness has the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index down 2.2% while the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index has dropped 2.6%.DJ30 -84.12 NASDAQ -27.14 SP500 -12.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 520/1.21 bln/1935 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 675/540 mln/2235

2:00 pm : Stocks have extended their downturn, taking both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to losses in excess of 1%. There isn't a single sector that has managed to maintain a gain in the face of increased selling pressure.

Materials plays remain in the worst shape. As a group, they are now down 4%, which is more than double what any other sector has suffered this session. The sector continues to be undercut by pronounced weakness among diversified and agricultural chemical stocks, steel stocks, and diversified metals and mining issues. DJ30 -86.92 NASDAQ -31.81 SP500 -14.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 605/1.07 bln/1825 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 770/475 mln/2195

1:30 pm : Stocks are descending deeper into negative territory amid an increase in selling pressure. All three major equity averages are now at session lows.

Weakness among stocks has helped Treasuries pare their losses. The benchmark 10-year Note is now down about a half of a point, but its yield remains above 2.0%.

Results from an auction of 5-year Notes indicated that the bid-to-cover ratio hit 3.04, dollar demand hit $106.4 billion, and the indirect bidder participation rate totaled 45.9%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover of 2.71, dollar demand of $94.9 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 42.1%. An average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 2.78, dollar demand of $97.3 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 41.1%. DJ30 -41.59 NASDAQ -19.47 SP500 -8.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 675/970 mln/1735 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 955/435 mln/2015

1:00 pm : Stocks made a nice move higher in the early going, but a lack of leadership has left the major averages to chop along in lackluster fashion. Despite that, a few pockets of strength remain.

The notion that Europe may soon get a comprehensive plan to restore fiscal and financial conditions has helped stocks trade higher in recent sessions, and was credited again this morning as a source of early strength. Support began to fade shortly after the open, though.

Tech had attempted to provide leadership this morning by jumping out to a 1% gain with help from Accenture (ACN 54.91, +1.26) and Jabil Circuit (JBL 18.82, +1.44), both of which posted an upside earnings surprise for its latest quarter. But the largest sector by market weight was unable to fend off the efforts of sellers. It has since danced along narrowly above the neutral line.

Down 0.3%, financials have been a bit of a drag on broad market action, but materials stocks have been a primary target of sellers. As a result, materials stocks have slumped to a collective loss of 2.5%.

Even though overall action has been lackluster, Amazon.com (AMZN 234.50, +10.29) has ascended to a weekly high following the release of the company's new Kindle family.

Data continues to come in small doses. It all remains very unexciting, too. The latest release featured lackluster durable goods orders figures for August. DJ30 +21.04 NASDAQ -5.57 SP500 -1.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 665/885 mln/1720 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1000/395 mln/1935

12:30 pm : The broad market has slipped in recent trade, but shares of Amazon.com (AMZN 235.55, +11.34) have ascended to fresh session highs following the release of the company's new family of Kindle products. The stock is now at a five-day high.DJ30 +20.96 NASDAQ -5.19 SP500 -1.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 650/812 mln/1705 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 980/365 mln/1940

12:00 pm : After muddling along in negative territory for more than an hour, the stock market has managed to make a sudden swing into higher ground. Overall gains may still be modest, but nonetheless the market has made its way to a midday high.

Leadership is still lacking, however. Tech, the largest sector by market weight, is up 0.6%, but the sector is still far from its best level of the day. Financials, also very influential in the market's direction, is stuck at the flat line. Telecom stocks, which lack any meaningful market weight, are actually today's top performers; they're collectively up 0.9% to trade at a new session high. DJ30 +66.83 NASDAQ +2.70 SP500 +2.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 590/610 mln/1710 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 910/270 mln/1975

11:30 am : The broad market's attempt to overcome selling pressure was refused, causing the S&P 500 to be rebuffed at the flat line. As a result, the benchmark Index continues to chop along in negative territory with a modest loss.

Financials have become a heavy drag on broader sentiment. The sector had been up nicely this morning, but it has since fallen to a 0.8% loss. Weakness among bank stocks has the KBE Bank Index down 1.2%.

Tech had been a leader in the first few minutes of trade, but it has also come under pressure. As a result, tech issues are currently stuck near the neutral line. DJ30 +13.55 NASDAQ -14.24 SP500 -3.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 590/610 mln/1710 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 910/270 mln/1975

11:00 am : A recent bout of selling pressure sent the major equity averages into negative territory, but stocks are trying to battle back. Although the Dow has already returned to higher ground, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have paused near the neutral line.

Materials stocks continue to come under aggressive selling pressure, though. That has left the sector to wrestle with a 2.0% loss, which makes is by far the worst performance of any major sector. Chemical-related plays like Dow (DOW 24.33, -1.01) and Monsanto (MON 64.34, -1.67), along with steel stocks AK Steel (AKS 7.00, -0.26) and US Steel (X 23.18, -0.70) are leading losses. DJ30 +12.97 NASDAQ -2.34 SP500 -1.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 600/465 mln/1645 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 875/205 mln/1955

10:35 am : Further broad market weakness is seen in recent activity, pulling the CRB Commodity Index near the 308 level.

Crude oil futures has been in the red for the majority of the morning and moved down to the $83 level ahead of inventory data. Following the data, which showed a build of 1.9 mln barrels versus the consensus which called for a build of 2.0 mln barrels, crude showed little reaction and is now down 1.5% at $83.13/barrel.

Natural gas ran as high as $3.88/MMBtu earlier this morning, but fell into negative territory after holding the level for almost an hour. Currently nat gas is down 0.6% at $3.85MMBtu.

Gold futures moved back near overnight lows of $1636.00/oz. and are now down 0.9% at $1637.20/oz. Silver attempted to run higher overnight, but lost steam. The precious metal hit a session high of $32.83, but is now 1.8% lower at $30.98/oz.DJ30 +26.64 NASDAQ -2.92 SP500 -1.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 610/424 mln/1626 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 828/189 mln/2001

10:00 am : The Dow is now up 100 points for a 1% gain. Boeing (BA 63.89, +1.11) and Microsoft (MSFT 26.20, +0.53) are the best performing blue chips. Alcoa (AA 10.42, -0.06), Bank of America (BAC 6.46, -0.02), and McDonald's (MCD 89.65, -0.09) are the only three names in the 30-member Index that have failed to find positive territory this morning.DJ30 +110.50 NASDAQ +17.32 SP500 +7.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 770/65 mln/1140 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1185/50 mln/1390

09:45 am : Action has been a bit choppy this morning, but the major equity averages are all in positive territory with solid gains.

Tech is a source of early strength. The sector is up about 0.6% with help from Jabil Circuit (JBL 19.15, +1.77), which has surged to a 10% gain following news of its upside earnings surprise.

Materials stocks were leaders in the prior session, but they've come under pressure this morning. The sector has followed up its 2% gain yesterday with a 0.6% decline today. The reversal comes as commodity prices encounter selling pressure after a broad surge in the prior session. DJ30 +94.30 NASDAQ +16.98 SP500 +5.87

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.70. Stock futures have pared their gains, but they still point to a positive start for today's trade. Should the supportive bid persist, stocks will be on pace for their fourth straight gain. The improved mood among market participants has come amid hope a comprehensive plan intended restore fiscal and financial conditions in Europe will be presented soon. The notion of such a plan has also helped prop up the euro, which continues to climb off of the eight-month low that it set earlier this week. Data continues to do little to excite traders, however. The latest dose featured some rather lackluster durable goods orders numbers for August. Still on today's calendar are weekly oil inventory figures (10:30 AM ET) and results from an auction of 5-year Notes (1:00 AM ET). On the earnings front, Accenture (ACN) and Jabil Circuit (JBL) both announced last evening better-than-expected bottom line resuts for the latest quarter. Both stocks are up sharply ahead of the open.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.50. The CRB Commodity Index is currently down 0.8% after a near 3% hike yesterday. Underpinning its pullback, oil prices are down 1.1% to $83.50 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Their slip follows a 5% spike in the prior session, but precedes the latest weekly inventory numbers, which are due at 10:30 AM ET. Natural gas prices are down 0.6% to $3.85 per MMBtu. That essentially retraces the energy component's 1% gain in the prior session. Precious metals are also under pressure. Specifically, gold prices were last quoted with a 0.2% loss at $1649 per ounce. Gold prices gained almost 4% yesterday. As for silver, it is down 0.9% to $31.25 per ounce following its 5% jump yesterday.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.20. Stock futures have slipped a few points in the past couple of minutes. Their dip coincides with a move lower by the euro. No real reaction was had to news that both total durable goods orders and orders less transportation slipped 0.1% during August. Economists polled by Briefing.com had generally expected a 0.1% increase in overall orders and a 0.2% decline when transportation items are removed. The lackluster numbers follow the prior month's 4.1% increase in overall orders and a 0.7% increase in orders less transportation.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.20. Stocks surrendered substantial gains yesterday, but the major averages still settled in positive territory. Bidding continues this morning as stock futures sport a nice lead over fair value, although their lead has narrowed in recent action. Participants continue to key in on Europe, but there haven't been any major developments overnight. After big back-to-back gains, Europe's bourses have pulled back a bit to trade in more mixed fashion this morning. The euro has managed to put together another strong advance in early trade, though; it is currently up 0.4% against the greenback. Durable goods orders data for August are due at the bottom of the hour. Weekly oil inventory numbers will be posted at 10:30 AM ET. At 1:00 PM ET, participants get their hands on results from an auction of 5-year Notes.

06:48 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +11.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +22.80.

06:48 am : Nikkei...8615.65...+5.70...+0.10%. Hang Seng...18011.06...-119.50...-0.70%.

06:48 am : FTSE...5305.91...+11.90...+0.20%. DAX...5683.16...+54.70...+1.00%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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