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 Post subject: September 26th Monday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +15.00
PostPosted: Tue Sep 27, 2011 8:43 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +15.00 points or $1500.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=1010.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=143&t=1197

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Rise on Optimism Europe Will Act on Crisis

Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks advanced, giving the Dow Jones Industrial Average its biggest increase in a month, amid speculation that European policy makers will act to prevent the region's debt crisis from getting worse.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks scored their strongest single-session surge in more than two weeks amid hopes that a plan to stabilize Europe's flagging financial system is in the works. Banks and other financial issues led the advance.

In the absence of any meaningful data or market-moving corporate news market participants kept their focus on Europe, which saw its major bourses rally during its latest session. Buying there was backed by the belief that officials are finally arranging a coordinated effort to shore up the eurozone's ailing banks and fiscal conditions after months of grappling with precarious conditions.

Stocks were subjected to some afternoon selling after an official from Germany reportedly remarked that there is no intention to increase the eurozone emergency funding plan, but it was later learned from CNBC that eurozone officials are planning for an European investment bank already in existence to use special purpose vehicles to issue bonds that would help finance the purchase of debt. The EFSF would also be used to shore up bank capital.

The major equity averages rallied in response to the CNBC story. Buying remained steady into the close, helping stocks settle at session highs.

Financials, especially banks, led the afternoon advance. They were fueled by the notion that efforts to restore Europe's financial conditions would effectively reduce risk related to their presence in the continent. Overall, the financial sector advanced 4.4%, but the KBW Bank Index bounced 5.2%.

Tech stocks trailed all session, but the sector managed to join in the broad market's late rally to settle with a 1.3% gain. Due to the relative weakness of large-cap tech issues, the Nasdaq was never able to match the performance of its counterparts.

Strength among stocks put pressure on Treasuries, causing the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note to return to 1.90%, which is more than 20 basis points above the record low that it set late last week.

The dollar oscillated for most of the day, but ultimately finished with a slight loss against a collection of competing currencies. The euro ended the day down narrowly against the dollar; its loss was reduced in the wake of the eurozone headlines.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +4.4%, Energy +3.6%, Materials +3.1%, Industrials +2.5%, Consumer Discretionary +2.2%, Consumer Staples +1.8%, Health Care +1.6%, Telecom +1.5%, Tech +1.3%, Utilities +0.8%
Declining Sectors: (None) DJ30 +272.38 NASDAQ +33.46 NQ100 +1.2% R2K +2.0% SP400 +2.0% SP500 +26.52

3:30 pm : The sell-off in gold continued today, as futures shed an additional 2.7% to close at $1594.80 per ounce. In overnight trade, gold traded as low as $1535, a fresh +3 month low. Futures managed to recoup most of those losses heading into the open of pit trade, but soon thereafter pulled back toward the $1600, where they spent the majority of the session chopping around. Silver prices shed 0.6% to close at $29.97 per ounce. Silver spent the majority of the session chopping around the unchanged mark.

Crude oil managed to close in positive territory, gaining 0.5% to settle at $80.24 per barrel, officially ending its recent three session sell-off which saw prices fall almost 10 points. Natural gas settled higher by 2.1% at $3.78 per MMBtu.DJ30 +216.53 NASDAQ +11.29 SP500 +14.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1355/1.6 bln/1213 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1972/760.6 mln/1053

3:00 pm : After a momentary pause, the Dow has managed work its way up to a new session high so that it now boasts a gain of almost 2%. The S&P 500 has been caught up at the 1150 line, which is right about where it set its session high shortly before midday. As for the Nasdaq, it is only marginally positive and still trailing its counterparts by a considerable margin.DJ30 +187.96 NASDAQ +1.08 SP500 +13.56

2:30 pm : Stocks have struggled to extend their recent rebound. That has left the Nasdaq mired in negative territory, while the Dow and S&P 500 are still shy of their afternoon highs.

As was the case last week, trade has been generally guided by the action in Europe and by the headlines from the region. However, in the absence of any market-moving data or influential corporate announcements, the dependence on Europe has made action in between headlines relatively dull. DJ30 +152.12 NASDAQ -9.41 SP500 +9.24

2:05 pm : Stocks are ticking higher in response to reports that an official from Europe has said that a detailed plan to help restore conditions in Europe is in the works. CNBC reported that the plan is rumored to include the creation of a European investment bank, a special purpose vehicle to issue bonds to purchase debt, and the use of the EFSF to shore up bank capital.

Even though equities responded positively to the report, the euro hasn't really moved. Rather, it remains 0.5% in the red against the greenback, hardly changed over the past couple of hours. DJ30 +150.08 NASDAQ -10.87 SP500 +9.08

1:30 pm : Stocks are up only marginally from their afternoon lows, which aren't quite in line with the depths that were set in the early going. The afternoon slide follows headlines that an official from Germany stated that there is no intention to increase the eurozone emergency funding plan. The euro hasn't really reacted to that news, though; instead, it continues to trade with a loss of about 0.5% against the greenback.DJ30 +99.07 NASDAQ -17.70 SP500 +4.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1035/230 mln/1180 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1275/125 mln/1470

1:00 pm : Stocks started the session with healthy gains as participants responded to renewed buying interest in Europe, where there has been speculation that officials are preparing to take new measures in addressing the fiscal and financial problems that have plagued the region for so long. The major averages quickly gave up their gains, but were able to rebound. The recovery effort has since lost momentum, leaving stocks to drift lower in early afternoon trade.

The presumption that there are plans in store to stabilize Europe has been regarded as a positive for banks with exposure to the region. In turn, the KBW Bank Index is up almost 2%. Strength among bank stocks has helped boost the rest of the financial sector, which is currently up 1.5% following a recent pullback.

Tech stocks, collectively down 0.6%, have lagged all session. Their weakness has left the Nasdaq to trade in negative territory while its counterparts sport solid gains. Apple (AAPL 396.10, -8.20) has been an especially heavy drag on the tech-rich Index, although the stock's slide has prompted many analysts to defend it.

There hasn't really been any corporate news of great influence to today's trade. Meanwhile, data have been limited to an in-line new home sales report for August.

Treasuries have had a down day and remain under pressure even as the broad market gives back its gains. The action has lifted the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note up to 1.90% after it had been below 1.70% late last week.DJ30 +107.58 NASDAQ -13.69 SP500 +6.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1035/230 mln/1180 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1272/125 mln/1470

12:30 pm : Gold prices continue to come under pressure. They are currently down 2.0% to $1607 per ounce. However, silver prices have rallied back from a morning loss of more than 5% so that they now sport a 0.5% gain at $30.30 per ounce. Amid that action, and strength in the broad equity market, which is still up 1%, metals and mining stocks are seeing mixed interest. As such, Newmont Mining (NEM 63.39, +0.53) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX 33.25, +0.88) are up nicely, but Barrick Gold (ABX 46.35, -0.07) and Kinross Gold (KGC 14.99, -0.22) are in the red.DJ30 +148.11 NASDAQ +1.31 SP500 +10.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1035/230 mln/1180 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1275/125 mln/1470

12:00 pm : The major equity averages have paused to take a breather from their recent upward run, which came as a rebound from a mid-morning retreat. Although the broad market has taken a break, tech stocks have managed to stretch ahead to its best level of the day. The sector now sports a 0.4% gain, which is still only a fraction of the 2.0% gain currently boasted by financials.DJ30 +172.33 NASDAQ +11.59 SP500 +14.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1035/230 mln/1180 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1275/125 mln/1470

11:30 am : Stocks are trying to extend their rebound effort, which has taken the Dow to a gain of more than 100 points. The Nasdaq remains challenged to find its way out of the red, though.

The Dow has been led by banking and financial services giants Bank of America (BAC 6.43, +0.12) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 30.42, +0.83). The pair has been bid higher as participants show more trust in financial plays amid speculation that officials in Europe are closer to making new plans to help shore up the continent's financial conditions. Such a move would help quell concerns over the exposure of US financial outfits to the precarious conditions in Europe.

Tech, which is the largest sector by market weight, continues to hamper the Nasdaq. As a group, tech stocks are down 0.1%, semiconductors in particular are down more than 1%, according to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. DJ30 +121.66 NASDAQ -2.16 SP500 +7.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1035/222 mln/1180 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1272/120 mln/1470

11:05 am : Stocks are recovering from their early morning pullback. Overall trade remains relatively mixed, though.

Large-cap tech stocks continue to take on challenges from sellers, who have kept the Nasdaq Composite in the red. The Nasdaq 100 is in slighly worse shape as it contends with a 0.5% loss. Apple (AAPL 398.80, -5.50) has been an especially heavy drag on both as it slides back below the $400 mark. DJ30 +94.00 NASDAQ -10.11 SP500 +4.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1035/225 mln/1180 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1275/123 mln/1470

10:35 am : The dollar index has moved back into positive territory in recent activity, which has weighed on the commodity complex. Crude oil futures have been on a downtrend over the past couple of hours after hitting new session highs of $80.54/barrel. The energy component pulled back near the $78 level, but never fell through it. It's currently trading just above that level, now at 1.5% at $78.62/barrel.

Natural gas is showing gains this morning, while the rest of the energy complex is weakness (WTI crude, Brent crude, heating oil, RBOB are in the red). Nat has steadily moved al morning and hit a new session high of $3.79/MMBtu and recent activity. Currently, its up 2.2% at $3.78/MMBtu.

Precious metals have been in the red all morning with silver showing the sharpest losses in the CRB Commodity Index. Silver futures were significantly lower in the overnight session, falling as far as $26.15/oz. Over the last four hours, silver has been in a range of approx. $28.00-29.25/oz and currently, silver is down 5.4% at $28.47/oz. Gold put in its own current session low in the overnight session, just before 3:00am EST, of $1535.00/oz. It recovered the vast majority of its losses, but could not break into positive territory. Gold is now down 2.6% at $1596.20/oz.DJ30 +49.72 NASDAQ -27.10 SP500 -1.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 875/420 mln/1466 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1078/204 mln/1734

10:00 am : Stocks are pulling back after staging a strong start. The move has already taken the Nasdaq into the red while the broad market has handed over all most all of its gains. There isn't any headline or catalyst to account for the action, but the move has coincided with a downturn by the euro, which now trails the dollar by 0.6% at $1.345.

Just released, new home sales for August hit an annualized rate of 295,000 units. That is in step with the rate of 293,000 units that had been broadly expected among economists polled by Briefing.com. It is also only slightly lower than the upwardly revised rate of 302,000 units recorded for the prior month. DJ30 +66.64 NASDAQ -12.72 SP500 +1.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1455/82 mln/625 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2065/65 mln/585

09:45 am : Financials have sprinted out in front of the broad market to sport a 1.6% gain. Banks are especially strong, giving the KBW Bank Index a 2.1% gain.

Mixed action among tech stocks has hampered the Nasdaq, however. Tech stocks are collectively up only 0.1%, which makes them the worst performers this morning. Among tech-related plays, semiconductor stocks are generally weak, resulting in a 0.5% loss for the Semiconductor Holder ETF (SMH 29.58, -0.14). DJ30 +111.71 NASDAQ +5.46 SP500 +8.57

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.00. The belief that eurozone officials may be preparing new plans for shaping up fiscal and financial conditions in Europe has brought buyers back into the market this morning. In a similar vein, the Fed's Raskin has reportedly remarked that more policy may be necessary in the current environment. Concerns about macro conditions, both at home and abroad, guided trade last week, resulting in a weekly loss of more than 6%. The selling frenzy sent the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note to record lows before it finally experienced some selling on Friday. The generally positive tone permeating premarket trade this morning has put renewed pressure on Treasuries. Meanwhile, the greenback, which booked a multi-month high last week, is flat this morning while precious metals continue to come under pressure.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +11.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.20. Domesitc stock futures have drifted lower in recent trade, but a positive tone continues to prevail in premarket trade. Support has come largely in response to a positive tone in Europe, where Germany's DAX has advanced to a 2.7% gain amid the belief that officials are planning to take new steps toward shoring up fiscal and financial conditions in the eurozone. Deutsche Bank (DB) and Commerzbank are a couple of the bourse's top performers, but Allianz (AZ) is out in front with a 10% gain. BMW and Thyssenkrupp AG represent the only two names that have failed to find higher ground. In economic news, Germany's Business Climate IFO Survey for September slipped to 107.5 from 108.7 in August. France's CAC has climbed to a 2.3% gain. Financial outfits Axa (AXA), BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, and Credit Agricole are sporting the strongest gains. Bouygues and Vallourec, both down more than 1%, are at the opposite end of the spectrum. Britain's FTSE is up 0.9%, led by the likes of Barclays (BCS), Lloyds Group (LYG), and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS). Fresnillo Plc, down more than 5%, is the worst performer on the FTSE.

Overnight action in Asia was generally weak. That left Japan's Nikkei to slide to a 2.2% loss. Tokyo Electric was the worst performer; it tumbled about 13%. KAO Corp led a relatively thin list of advancing issues by gaining more than 2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.5%. China Yurun Food fell roughly 30% in response to a disappointing forecast. China's Shanghai Composite closed with a 1.6% loss. Ping An Insurance tumbled almost 14% to lead a long list of declining issues.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +14.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.50. Precious metals continue to come under pressure, which is compounding recent losses. Last week gold prices tumbled about 9%. They're down 0.5% to $1631.50 per ounce this morning. Silver's slide has been even more precipitous. The precious metal plummeted 25% last week and is down today by another 5.1% at $28.53 per ounce. In the energy complex, oil prices are up 0.8% to $80.45 per barrel before pit trade. Oil prices fell less than 1% last week. As for natural gas, prices are up 1.0% to $3.74 per MMbtu after falling a few percent last week.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +13.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.70. Stock futures are up nicely this morning. The positive tone comes in conjunction with a rebound by Europe's major bourses, which have rallied to strong gains after a rather weak start to their session. The bounce abroad comes amid the belief that officials may be planning fixes for the region's flagging financial systems and economies. Even still, the euro remains down about 0.3% at $1.349.

06:44 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +13.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.80.

06:44 am : Nikkei...8374.13...-186.10...-2.20%. Hang Seng...17407.80...-261.00...-1.50%.

06:44 am : FTSE...5091.51...+24.70...+0.50%. DAX...5310.96...+114.40...+2.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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