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 Post subject: September 23rd Friday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +28.90
PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2011 3:53 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +28.90 points or $2890.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=1008.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=143&t=1197

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Rise on Expectation Policy Makers Will Act

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks advanced, trimming the biggest weekly decline since October 2008 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, amid speculation that policy makers will act to prevent a global financial crisis from getting worse.

Dow's Worst Week Since October 2008

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Maureen Farrell September 23, 2011: 4:48 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Despite Friday's relative calm on Wall Street, it was a brutal week for stocks, with investors losing faith in economies and political leaders around the world. The Dow Jones industrial average closed the week down 738 points, or 6.4%, its worst weekly performance since October 2008.

All three indexes fell by more than 5% for the week. The S&P 500 (SPX) was down 80 points, or 6.5% for the week, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP) dropped 139 points, or 5.6%.

In a subdued end to the calamitous week, U.S. stocks edged higher Friday afternoon, as investors tried to recover from Thursday's 3% slide. But the gains were limited as traders remained cautious amid worries about the global economy and Europe's debt crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) closed the day up 38 points , or 0.34%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) added 7 points, or 0.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP) gained 28 points, or 1.1%, with Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) among the strongest performers.

Clouds continue to gather over Europe, as doubts over the solvency of Greece and European banks mount, and European officials fail to take substantive steps.

* Global economy alarm bells ring

Investors were also let down by the Federal Reserve. The central bank launched Operation Twist on Wednesday as investors had been anticipating, but the Fed's weak economic outlook rattled investors.

The most dramatic sell-off came Thursday, when stocks in the United States, Europe and Asia plunged on fears that the global economy is teetering toward another recession.

Investors were taking a step back from the selling on Friday, pushing stocks slightly higher.

"The bad news and the biggest concerns are now mostly priced in," said Art Hogan, managing director at Lazard Capital Markets.

G-20 finance ministers attempted to inject some confidence early Friday, with a commitment to "a strong and coordinated international response to address the renewed challenges facing the global economy," highlighting the European debt crisis.

* G20 pledges support, but investors want action

Gathering at the annual International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C., the group said that by its next meeting in October, the eurozone will have implemented actions to expand the bailout fund for Europe's debt-laden countries "to maximize its impact in order to address contagion."

The statement provided a brief sigh of relief, but Hogan said investors are hopeful that European officials will come out with an actual plan as they continue to meet in America's capital over the weekend.

"We've been looking for answers for months, and there's a possibility that we could get some positive news this weekend," said Hogan. "Investors don't want to go into the weekend leaning too far in one direction."

World markets: After tanking earlier, European stocks managed to turn around to end modestly higher. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) rose 0.5%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany gained 0.6% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) added 1%.

Asian markets ended in the red. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) fell 0.4%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong tumbled 1.4% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) sank more than 2%.

Companies: Shares of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) edged lower a day after the company's board ousted CEO Leo Apotheker after just 11 months.

Shares of Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), which have been hit hard over the last few days due to concerns about U.S. exposure to Greek debt, posted gains.

Bank of America's (BAC, Fortune 500) stock also moved higher. Even the slightest decline would put BofA shares in the $5 range, a level not seen since March 2009.

Shares of KB Home (KBH) popped after the homebuilder reported a narrower-than-expected loss for the third quarter.

* Run for cover. Copper prices are getting killed.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro and the British pound. The greenback rose slightly versus the Japanese yen and

Oil for November delivery was little changed around $80.50 a barrel. Gold futures for December delivery lost $97 to $1,644.70 an ounce.

* Video - World Bank: Emerging markets at risk

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell slightly, pushing the yield up to 1.81% from 1.72% late Thursday. Earlier Friday, the benchmark yield hit a fresh record low of 1.671%.

Economy: No major economic reports are scheduled for release Friday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : The stock market mustered its first gain of the week on Friday. The gain, although modest, came as participants moved to cover their positions following four days of concerted selling.

Action in the final session of the week was a bit boring, given the volatility of the preceding sessions. Stocks essentially spent the session chopping along in mixed fashion. The action came as participants displayed a sense of uncertainty regarding the market's treatment of headline risk related to tenuous global economic conditions and precarious financial conditions in Europe ahead of the weekend. Just last week traders were feeling more confident about those themes, resulting in five straight gains for stocks.

Following only the second weekly advance in almost two months, the risk trade was abruptly switched off at the start of this week. Traders showed disappointment over the lack of progress by Greece in establishing an austerity plan that would secure it financial assistance from the Troika. Reflecting the deterioration of financial conditions in the Eurozone's periphery, Italy had its debt downgraded by analysts at Moody's, but that decision really wasn't too surprising.

Sentiment really began to sour with the midweek announcement by the FOMC that it will purchase $400 billion of Treasuries with maturities of six years to 30 years, while selling an equal amount of Treasuries with a remaining maturities of three years or less, by the end of June 2012. The plan, labeled "Operation Twist" by traders, was generally in-line with what had been expected on Wall Street, but it seemed less than accommodative in light of the Fed's statement that downside risk to economic growth remain high.

Stocks responded to the Fed's statement by tumbling to a loss of almost 3%. Stocks then fell more than 3% the next day as selling pressure was perpetuated by aggressive selling abroad. Although the bloodletting eased on Friday, the stock market still suffered a weekly loss of 6.5%. That marks the seventh weekly slide in nine weeks time.

The resumption of the stock market's downtrend drove masses of traders into Treasuries. As a result, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note dropped to a record low of less than 1.70%. It moved back above 1.80% on Friday, though.

The dollar also benefited from a flight to safety. Relative to a basket of major foreign currencies, the greenback climbed to a seven-month high, but wavered a bit in the final session of the week.

Interestingly, gold failed to attract safety seekers. Instead, the precious metal was caught up in the sell-off that slammed other commodities. Gold prices finished pit trade on Friday at $1645 per ounce for a 5.6% loss, but for the week the precious metal fell about 9%. Overall, commodities fell almost 7%, according to the CRB Commodity Index. DJ30 +37.65 NASDAQ +27.56 NQ100 +1.0% R2K +1.4% SP400 +1.3% SP500 +6.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1750/1.98 bln/818 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1901/1.23 bln/1102

3:30 pm : Precious metals continued their slide today. Specifically, gold prices closed pit trade at $1645 per ounce to log a 5.6% loss. That came on top of the near 4% loss that it had suffered in the prior session. For the week, gold prices shed about 9%. As for silver, it dropped a precipitous 16.5% today, settling at $30.56 per ounce. That extended the near 10% drop that it experienced in the prior session. Silver ended the week 25% below where it began.

Oil prices were down in the early going as participants looked to extend the energy component's prior session loss of 6.3%. The energy component was actually below $78 ahed of pit trade, but was able to settle at $80 per barrel to eke out a 0.2% gain. That's only about a half dollar below where it began the week. As for natural gas prices, they finished flat at $3.70 per MMbtu after a positive start to today's trade. Natural gas prices were down about a dime for the week, though. DJ30 +24.18 NASDAQ +24.27 SP500 +6.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1610/1.57 mln/925 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1785/830 mln/1200

3:00 pm : Stocks remain mixed as they enter the final hour of the session. The action has made for a rather unexciting follow up to the dramatic declines suffered during the course of the two previous sessions, which have left the market on pace for a weekly loss of almost 7%. That may be the worst weekly performance in more than a month, but what's more is that it represents the seventh weekly slide in nine weeks.DJ30 -11.47 NASDAQ +17.50 SP500 +2.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1550/1.42 bln/980 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1650/740 mln/1325

2:30 pm : Stocks have slipped off of their afternoon highs. That has left the Dow to descend back into negative territory.

The dollar is also back in the red to trade with a 0.1% loss after it had worked its way to an incremental gain against competing currencies.

The choppy action among stocks and currencies comes as many traders and investors juggle their holdings in the wake of recent sell-offs. DJ30 +1.81 NASDAQ +19.74 SP500 4.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1670/1.30 bln/845 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1865/675 mln/1080

2:00 pm : Stocks have managed to stage a nice rebound that has stocks back to sporting strong gains. Each of the three major averages is now at or near session highs.

Consumer discretionary stocks are still out in front of the rest of the market. The sector now boasts a 2.0% gain. Next in line is the utilities sector with its 1.4% gain, followed by tech, financials, and industrials, which are all up 1.3%. DJ30 +59.86 NASDAQ +30.61 SP500 +10.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1585/1.15 bln/915 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1745/605 mln/1205

1:30 pm : Energy stocks are down 0.8%, which makes them the worst performers of the day. The sector's slide comes even though oil prices have trimmed their losses since this morning -- oil prices had been down below $78 per barrel ahead of pit trade, but it now trades at almost $80 per barrel for a more moderate loss of about 0.7%. Among energy plays, oil and gas services outfits Halliburton (HAL 31.90, -0.82) and Baker Hughes (BHI 49.09, -1.96) are under some of the sharpest pressure.DJ30 -22.75 NASDAQ +13.55 SP500 +1.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1550/1.05 bln/940 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1620/545 mln/1315

1:00 pm : Another round of aggressive selling pressure abroad had weighed on sentiment before the open, but most stocks have since managed to muster modest gains as many market participants cover their positions ahead of the weekend.

Worries about economic growth and the threat of contagion in Europe caused stocks to slide about 6% during the course of the past two sessions. Pressure abroad only perpetuated further selling interest this morning, but once Europe's bourses began to bounce the tone at home improved.

Although selling pressure has subsided since the open, there is still a sense of uncertainty among most traders. In turn, action has been choppy as participants look to protect their portfolios from headline risk ahead of the weekend.

The choppy action has made it difficult for stocks to establish a clear path of trade. Although the Nasdaq was up about 1% at its session high, it has since surrendered more than half of that. Meanwhile, the Dow has been challenged all day to put together even a modest gain.

Nike (NKE 89.23, +5.05) has managed to put together an impressive gain in the face of lackluster action in the broad market. The stock's strength is underpinned by a better-than-expected earnings report. In other corporate news, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 21.66, -1.14) has officially announced that Meg Whitman will take over as the company's new CEO, but the stock has still slumped.

Even though sentiment hasn't completed the turn from sour to sweet, Treasuries have fallen out of favor. This morning the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note had probed 1.70%, near its record low, but the yield has since climbed closer to 1.80%.

The dollar has managed to make its way back to the flat line since slipping off of a multi-month high this morning. The move comes after the euro gave up an early gain. DJ30 -14.19 NASDAQ +14.11 SP500 +2.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1565/945 mln/890 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1715/480 mln/1220

12:30 pm : Stocks have reclaimed some of their gains after experiencing a recent slip. Still, the Dow continues to have difficulty extending its advance. Instead, it continues to dance near the neutral line.

Nike (NKE 89.32, +5.15) has been a top performer in the face of choppy broad market action. The stock's 6% spike comes after the company posted an upside earnings surprise for the latest quarter. DJ30 +15.70 NASDAQ +21.12 SP500 +6.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1700/850 mln/760 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1865/435 mln/1050

12:00 pm : Sellers have steeped in to apply some pressure. As a result, stocks have turned lower in recent trade. The action has helped Treasuries cut their losses. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now back below 1.80%.DJ30 -8.10 NASDAQ +16.39 SP500 +3.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1710/775 mln/740 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1920/395 mln/980

11:30 am : Although the climb hasn't been a smooth one, stocks have managed to extend their highs. The market still has a long way to go before it can fully offset the 6% that it surrendered during the course of the past two sessions.

Although their leadership has been limited by their lack of market weight, industrials continue to sport the strongest gains of any sector. Collectively, industrial stocks are up 1.6%. Cummins (CMI 87.48, +2.22) is a top performer in the pack. DJ30 +26.30 NASDAQ +28.08 SP500 +8.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1765/625 mln/640 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2005/325 mln/880

11:00 am : Following more choppy trade stocks have managed to move to session highs. Of the major equity averages, the Nasdaq is out in front while the Dow is barely positive.

Apple (AAPL 405.10, +3.28), Yahoo! (YHOO 14.52, +0.53), and Dell (DELL 14.27, +0.27) have been leaders in the Nasdaq. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 21.86, -0.94) has hampered the Dow after the company announced that it has hired Meg Whitman to act as its CEO. She is the former CEO of eBay (EBAY 31.81, +0.14). DJ30 +15.28 NASDAQ +18.16 SP500 +6.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1475/495 mln/875 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1510/255 mln/1330

10:35 am : The dollar index remains in the red, but this isn't doing much for commodities, most of which are also in the red.

Precious metals are by far the worst performing commodities this morning with sharply losses in silver and gold. Silver has been on a pretty steady downtrend all session as fell as far as $32.31/oz. It's back near the $33 area after a choppy couple of hours and is now down 9.8% at $32.99/oz

Gold was near the unchanged line for much of the overnight session, but lost steam around 5:30am EST. Gold hit new a session low of $1681.10/oz in recent trading activity and is now down 3.3% at $1683.20/oz.

Crude oil futures began to really sell-off around the same time that gold did earlier this morning. During this weakness, crude sold off from around the $80.50/barrel area to its current session low (hit ~7am EST) $77.55/barrel. In current trade, crude is down 0.9% at $79.78/barrel. Natural gas is up 0.2% at $3.71/MMBtu.
DJ30 -34.14 NASDAQ +7.56 SP500 -0.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1556/446 mln/790 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1569/235 mln/1254

10:00 am : Stocks have successfully poked into positive territory. Financials continue to lead the push; the sector is now up 1.0%.

Industrial stocks are also in strong shape this morning. The sector has suffered losses on the order of about 4% in each of the past two sessions, but this morning it has managed to run ahead of the broader market to sport a 1.1% gain.

Consumer staples stocks are struggling to attract buyers. The sector is still in negative territory with a 0.3% loss. DJ30 +14.19 NASDAQ +13.34 SP500 +4.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1015/55 mln/1000 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 905/53 mln/1565

09:45 am : Despite a choppy start to early trade, the major market averages have managed to make a move higher that has left them to trade near the neutral line. Financials, up 0.4% as a group, are showing early leadership.

The improved tone of trade has helped to keep the greenback in negative territory. It currently lags a collection of competing currencies by about 0.2%. Treasuries are also down from the heights that they had reached ahead of the open. DJ30 -13.51 NASDAQ +2.40 SP500 +0.72

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.30. Earlier this morning stock futures pointed to an opening loss of more than 1% for the major market averages, but they have managed to work their way up from those depths with the approach of the open. Now, only a slightly lower start appears to be in order. The action comes as the dollar surrenders its early gain as a result of a bounce by the euro, which is now up 0.2% to $1.349. The sterling pound is in even better shape; it is up 0.6% to $1.545. Treasuries have also turned lower in recent trade. That has lifted the yield on the 10-year Note off of its record low so that it is now a few basis points above 1.70%.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.00. Despite broad market weakness, gold continues to come under pressure. In turn, the yellow metal is down 2.8% to $1693 per ounce, below the $1700 mark for the first time in more than a month. Silver prices have fallen even harder, however. The precious metal is currently down 10% to $32.89 per ounce. That comes on top of the near 10% drop that they suffered in the prior session. Crude oil prices are off of their overnight lows, but still down 1.6% to $79.23 per barrel in early pit trade. Natural gas prices are putting on an enviable performance. The energy component is currently up 0.7% to $3.73 per MMBtu.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -26.50. Overseas markets continue to slide as global participants look to dump relatively risky holdings. That has Germany's DAX down 2.6%. Of its 30 members, only Adidas is in higher ground. K+S and HeidelbergCement are at the other end of the spectrum; both are currently wrestling with losses of about 7% or more. France's CAC has fallen to a 2.5% loss as participants apply broad selling pressure. BNP Paribas is the only stock trading with any kind of a gain in the 40-member Index. Britain's FTSE 100 has fallen 2.2% in the final session of the week. Tesco Plc, Centrica Plc, Vodafone (VOD), Admiral Group, Autonomy Corp, and Imperial Tobacco represent its only advancers. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng slid to a 1.4% loss. Pressure was broad, once again, but global banking giant HSBC (HBC) was an especially heavy drag. China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.4%. ICBC continued to hamper action by falling another 5%. Japan's Nikkei was closed for trade.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -17.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -37.30. Stocks have already fallen 6% during the course of the past two sessions, but selling pressure isn't yet letting up. As such, stock futures suggest that the stock market's slide will be extended at the open. With so many participants looking to exit riskier positions, commodities also continue to come under pressure. That has crude oil futures prices down more than 3% to less than $78 per barrel ahead of pit trade. Meanwhile, gold has fallen nearly 3% to trade below $1700 per ounce for the first time in more than a month. As was the case yesterday, the dollar and Treasuries are the safe havens of choice. That has the Dollar Index up modestly to a new multi-month high and the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note at its record low of 1.70%. With an empty economic calendar and just a few corporate announcements -- Nike (NKE) psoted a sizeable upside earnings surprise for its most recent quarter -- market participants continue to take their cues from overseas trade, which is only perpetuating selling pressure as macro threats loom.

06:52 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -10.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -24.80.

06:52 am : Nikkei...8560.26...-180.90...-2.10%. Hang Seng...17668..83...-243.10...-1.40%.

06:52 am : FTSE...4978.28...-63.30...-1.30%. DAX...5065.68...-98.50...-1.90%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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