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 Post subject: September 19th Monday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +47.50
PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2011 3:05 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +47.50 points or $4750.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=1002.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=143&t=1197

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Decline Amid Concern About Greece Aid

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks retreated, following the longest rally since July for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, amid concern Greece will fail to qualify for more financial aid needed to avoid a debt default.

Stocks Cut Losses On Hopes For Greece

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Hibah Yousuf September 19, 2011: 4:38 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks trimmed earlier losses by more than half Monday afternoon, amid hopes that Greece may avoid a default. But the uncertainty over the debt-laden nation's future still ended the market's 5-day winning streak.

The Greek finance ministry said talks on Monday with officials from the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank were "productive and substantive."

A source familiar with the discussions told CNN a deal to continue to provide Greece with bailout funds may be close.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) ended 108 points lower, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 12 points, or 1%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 9 points, or 0.4%.

* Europe's debt crisis: 5 things you need to know

Earlier all three indexes had tumbled more than 2%.

Despite what seems like progress, investors will remain skittish until an official deal is announced.

"We are drawing closer to the date at which the Greek government is going to run out of money," said Mark Luschini, the chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

Even though the Greek economy is relatively small, "the great unknown is problematic for investors" said Luschini.

European Union finance ministers reached an agreement Friday on a package of reforms aimed at strengthening economic governance across the monetary and currency union.

* Greece: Is this the end game?

The group of leaders concluded their meeting in Poland by deciding to wait until October before giving Greece the next round of funding aimed at helping Athens bail out from its debt load.

U.S. stocks had posted solid gains Friday, clinching a five-day winning streak for the first time in more than two months.

* Video - Blackrock sees opportunity in risky Europe

Economy: President Obama unveiled a plan Monday to cut the national debt by $3 trillion over the next decade.

Because the president's plan includes tax increases, investors are skeptical that Washington will ever be able to pass anything.

"Republicans won't raise taxes and Democrats are unlikely to make dramatic cuts on spending, so it's hard to envision any progress on the deficit," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial Group. "The two sides seem pretty far apart right now."

Also this week, investors are waiting to hear from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. The Federal Open Market Committee has expanded the length of its meeting to two days from one, a move that investors have taken as a sign that the Fed will announce new actions to spur the economy at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday.

Experts largely agree that the Fed will announce a program dubbed Operation Twist, in which the central bank would try to boost lending by swapping out short-term bonds in its portfolio with long-term Treasury bonds. The intended outcome: lower long-term interest rates without increasing the size of the Fed's balance sheet.

"If the Fed goes ahead with Operation Twist, I think it will provide a minor psychological lift and put a bit of a floor in the market in the near-term, but I don't think it will fundamentally boost the economy," said Sheldon, nothing that long-term interest rates are already at historic lows.

"What the economy needs right now is confidence and constructive programs coming out of Washington," Sheldon added.

Separately, the housing market index by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo fell to 14, from a reading of 15 the previous month. Economists polled by Briefing.com were expecting the index to stay flat at 15.

The index has held in a tight range -- between 13 and 16 -- for six straight months, a sign that housing market conditions remain stagnant.

World markets: European stocks finished deep in the red Monday. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) dropped 1.8%, while the DAX (DAX) in Germany and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) tumbled 2.6%.

Asian markets ended lower. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) shed 1.8% and the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong fell 2.8%. The Tokyo stock market was closed for a holiday.

Companies: Shares of Netflix (NFLX) shed 7% after co-founder and CEO Reed Hastings published a blog post overnight apologizing for the way the recent changes in charges were communicated and renaming the its DVD-by-mail service Qwikster.

* Protesters hit Wall Street

Tyco International's (TYC) stock rose 2% after the company said it will separate into three independent, publicly traded companies.

Shares of Goodrich (GR, Fortune 500) popped 16% amid speculation that the company would be taken over by United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500).

Shares of Lennar (LEN) spiked 5% after the homebuilder said that new orders increased during the quarter for the first time in more than five years, a good sign for future demand.

UBS (UBS) shares dropped 3%. The Swiss bank kicked off an internal investigation into the failure of its risk systems, after raising the amount it lost on "rogue" trades to $2.3 billion.

Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) shares edged up 3% and hit an all-time high of $413.23 per share.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar surged 1% against the euro and gained ground versus the British pound. The greenback was slightly lower against the Japanese yen.

Oil for October delivery, nearing expiration, slipped $2.58, or 2.6%, to settle at $85.70 settle a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery fell $35.80, or 2%, to settle at $1,778.90 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 1.94% from 2.08% late Friday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Traders were guided by Greece today. Concern that the country could default on its debt initially stirred aggressive selling, but headlines that the country is close to securing funding helped the major equity averages slash their losses.

The stock market rallied more than 5% last week, but participants wasted little time paring their positions amid reports that a meeting between officials from Greece failed to produce an austerity plan that would ensure the placement of financial support, which would help the country avoid a default. To little surprise, worries over what could come of the country's moribund finances sent most overseas markets lower.

Global banking plays, especially those with a strong presence in Europe, were hit especially hard by sellers. The bleeding wasn't quite as bad among American banks, but the KBW Bank Index still suffered a loss of almost 3%.

Tech stocks, which collectively represent the largest sector by market weight, tried to help the market trim its loss in afternoon trade. The sector's attempt to turn higher was more influential in the tech-rich Nasdaq, which was able to reduce its loss to about half of what the broad market had been grappling with.

The broad market didn't really begin to rally until the final hour, when headlines surfaced suggesting that Greece's finance minister said the country is close to a deal with the International Monetary Fund, European Union, and European Central Bank, which are being collectively labeled the troika. The market's move lost momentum into the close, but both the Dow and S&P 500 were able to settle with losses that were less than half of what they had suffered at session lows. The Nasdaq, which already had a leg up on its counterparts, actually pushed into positive territory before slipping back into the red.

The dollar had been up more than 1% against a basket of major foreign currencies in the early going, but it pulled back as some participants made a late rotation out of the reserve currency and back into stocks before the closing bell. Still, the dollar ended the trading day about 0.7% higher than where it began.

Treasuries also traded with strong gains, but settled shy of their highs. For a time, the benchmark 10-year Note was up more than a full point, but it still finished with a gain good enough to keep its yield below 2.0%.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Unchanged: Consumer Discretionary
Declining Sectors: Tech -0.1%, Utilities -0.5%, Health Care -0.9%, Consumer Staples -0.9%, Industrials -0.9%, Telecom -1.1%, Materials -1.4%, Energy -1.5%, Financials -2.7%DJ30 -108.08 NASDAQ -9.48 NQ100 +0.1% R2K -1.7% SP400 -1.4% SP500 -11.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 563/1.89 bln/2040 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 674/908 mln/2321

3:30 pm : Strength in the dollar dictated trade in commodities today, as concerns about the debt crisis in the euro zone continued. Precious metals remained pressured throughout the session. Gold futures notched lows at $1771 heading into the close, and ended just above those lows at $1778.90 per ounce, off 1.9%. Silver put in lows at $39.03 per ounce heading into the close and finished just above those lows, off 3.9% on the day.

Crude oil prices fell as well, shedding 2.6% to close at $85.78 per barrel. Futures put in lows at $84.79 heading into afternoon trade but managed to rebound close to a full point heading into the close. Natural gas finished higher by 0.5% at $3.83 per MMBtu.DJ30 -116.52 NASDAQ -7.11 SP500 -19.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 588/1.5 bln/1999 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 654/634.1 mln/2376

3:00 pm : Stocks have slipped some in recent trade, but the major equity averages remain well above their session lows. Still, that may not be very consoling to some investors, given that the broad market is still down markedly for the day.

The stock market's effort to improve its position this afternoon has prompted some participants to scale out of their positions in the dollar. That has caused the greenback to surrender some of its gain; it is now up slightly less than 0.8% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Earlier today it had been up more than 1%. DJ30 -184.48 NASDAQ -26.58 SP500 -19.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 450/1.28 bln/2130 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 525/515 mln/2445

2:30 pm : Stocks are trying to trim their losses again. The effort has been slow to take hold, however.

Tech, which is the largest sector by market weight, continues to offer positive leadership. The sector, now down a relatively tame 0.7%, is at its best level of the day. Tech stocks were also strong last week, when they were led about 7% higher. Semiconductor stocks were the primary drivers of that move; they climbed about 10%, collectively, for the week. Semiconductor plays are under pressure this session, given the 1.6% loss by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. DJ30 -189.22 NASDAQ -26.28 SP500 -19.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 405/1.17 bln/2165 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 450/470 mln/2505

2:00 pm : Apple (AAPL 409.56, +9.06) continues to lead the tech sector, which has managed trim its loss to 0.9%. Utilities, also down 0.9%, make up the only other sector that have successfully limited their losses to less than 1%. Strength in shares of AAPL have also helped the Nasdaq hold up better than either of its counterparts, the Dow and S&P 500.DJ30 -214.87 NASDAQ -28.86 SP500 -21.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 420/1.07 bln/2135 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 430/434 mln/2530

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to wrestle with aggressive selling pressure. That has left the major equity averages to trade near their afternoon lows. That said, stocks are still off of their daily lows, which were set in the first hour of trade.

Amid the steady weakness, participants continue to take safety in the dollar and in Treasuries. DJ30 -215.89 NASDAQ -30.35 SP500 -22.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 375/1.00 bln/2175 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 395/405 mln/2555

1:00 pm : Stocks have failed to sustain the upward momentum from last week's climb. For anyone watching the market in recent months, it is hardly a surprise that the shift in sentiment comes in response to renewed worries about sovereign debt in Europe.

Although the threat of default never really went away, an improved sense of confidence in the ability to treat, contain, and support fiscal and financail woes of Greece and other countries in the eurozone periphery helped stocks rally for five straight sessions last week, resulting in gain of more than 5% for the broad market. However, Greece's ability to meet its debt obligations through an effective austerity plan has come back into close focus after Greece's officials reportedly held an unproductive meeting over the weekend.

Most foreign markets have already logged substantial losses -- Germany's DAX dropped 2.5%, France's CAC was cut by 2.7%, Britain's FTSE fell 2.0%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 2.8%, China's Shanghai Composite slid 1.8%. Domestic averages have followed suit.

Weakness may be widespread, but bank stocks have been the heaviest drags on trade. Many European bank stocks are down in excess of 5%, while U.S. banking plays have taken the KBW Bank Index down to a loss of more than 3%.

As a group, only utilities have managed to limit their losses to less than 1%. They are currently down 0.8%, supported by a want for the relative safety of their businesses and dividends.

Safety seekers have also taken shelter in the dollar and Treasuries. As such, the greenback has gained about 1.0% against a basket of major foreign currencies, while buying interest in the benchmark 10-year Note has taken its yield back below 2.0%. Gold prices have actually tumbled to $1783 per ounce for a 1.8% loss. DJ30 -225.24 NASDAQ -36.79 SP500 -23.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 425/900 mln/2120 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 420/365 mln/2505

12:30 pm : The stock market's attempt to swing higher has stalled. The loss of momentum has given way to renewed selling pressure, which has knocked stocks off of their midday highs. The pullback came just after the S&P 500 failed to overcome intraday resistance near the 1200 line.DJ30 -205.14 NASDAQ -29.86 SP500 -21.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 470/818 mln/2040 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 440/335 mln/2475

12:00 pm : The Nasdaq has continued to cut its loss, leaving it down less than 1% on the day. Its loss is actually now about half that of the broader market.

Financials continue to weigh heavily on broad market action. The sector's 3% loss is largely the result of weakness among bank stocks, which have been blasted in response to concerns about their exposure to the precarious eurozone. That said, European banks stocks are down even more deeply -- Deutsche Bank (DB 32.82, -2.00), UBS (UBS 11.41, -0.47), Credit Suisse (CS 24.02, -2.10), Barclays (BCS 9.58, -0.82). DJ30 -183.84 NASDAQ -22.00 SP500 -18.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 375/690 mln/2125 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 360/290 mln/2525

11:30 am : Stocks are peeling off of their lows. Of the major averages, the Nasdaq's upturn has been most pronounced. In fact, the tech-rich Index has managed to slash its loss in half.

Apple (AAPL 406.42, +6.00) has been a leader for the Nasdaq in recent action, but Netflix (NFLX 158.98, +3.79) has been an even better performer as it attempts to rebound from the beat-downs that it suffered late last week. DJ30 -197.08 NASDAQ -27.51 SP500 -20.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 330/555 mln/2150 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 325/235 mln/255

11:00 am : The stock market continues to drift along near its session low with a loss of 2%. Pressure has been sharp and broad since the open.

Energy issues were initially hit the hardest, but financials have since assumed the dubious distinction of being the worst performers. Financials, as a group, are down 3.3%. Bank of America (BAC 6.95, -0.28), down almost 4%, has been one of the heaviest drags on the sector. Not only is it one of the poorest performers by percent lost, but it is also one of the most actively traded names by share volume. DJ30 -220.69 NASDAQ -42.43 SP500 -24.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 290/470 mln/2160 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 290/200 mln/2560

10:30 am : The dollar index remains near session highs of 77.48, which continues to add selling pressure on the commodity complex this morning. The CRB Commodity Index is showing notable losses in the majority of its components. Aluminum, orange juice and sugar are showing small gains, while lumber and and the livestock sector are showing just modest losses.

In the energy space, crude oil has been in the red all morning and just fell below the $85 and put in new session lows of $84.94/barrel. It's now back above $85, but currently down 2.9% at $85.41/barrel. Natural gas rallied when pit trading began, which pushed the energy component back near, but just under, the unchanged line. It has since moved lower and is now down 0.50% at $3.79/MMBtu.

Precious metals sold off about an hour ago, pulling gold into negative territory and extending losses in silver. As a results of this weakness, gold fell to new session lows of $1778.20/oz about 10 minutes ago, while silver fell as low as $39.26/oz about 20 min ago. In currently activity, gold is down 1.5% at $1788.20/oz and silver is down 3.1% at $39.59/oz.DJ30 -242.23 NASDAQ -53.76 SP500 -26.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 270/400 mln/2152 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 257/169 mln/2576

10:00 am : Stocks have extended their morning slide. In turn, all three major equity averages are down by at least 2%. Small-cap and mid-cap stocks are in even worse shape -- the Russell 2000 has already fallen 2.3% while the S&P 400 has dropped 2.7%.

Meanwhile, the dollar continues to climb higher as participants pursue safety. The greenback has now gained 1.1% against a basket of major foreign currencies. DJ30 -228.46 NASDAQ -55.26 SP500 -26.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 200/150 mln/2110 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 225/77 mln/2500

09:45 am : Stocks have slumped in the opening minutes of trade. Weakness may be widespread, but energy stocks are being hit especially hard. The sector has already fallen to a 3.0% loss. It hasn't helped the sector that oil prices have slid to $85.60 per barrel for a 2.7% loss.

Utilities, collectively down 0.9%, make up the only sector that has managed to limit its loss to less than 1.0%. The defensive-oriented group has been supported by electric utilities plays like Dominion (D 49.52, -0.32), American Electric (AEP 37.26, -0.26), and Southern (SO 42.30, -0.29). DJ30 -215.32 NASDAQ -48.73 SP500 -24.16

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -20.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -32.50. Renewed worries about the fiscal and financial health of countries in the eurozone's periphery, namely Greece and its ilk, have sent overseas markets lower and weighed heavily on domestic stock futures. In turn, stocks appear poised to follow up last week's five-session climb for a 5% gain with a sharp loss. Amid the weakness, the dollar has advanced to a 1.0% gain against a collection of competing currencies. Meanwhile, buying among Treasuries has the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note back below 2.00%. Gold hasn't gained much support, though; it was last quoted with a fractional gain at $1816 per ounce.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -19.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -31.00. Pit trade has just opened for oil. The energy component is down 1.3% to $86.80 per barrel in the opening minutes of action. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are down 1.0% to $3.77 per MMBtu. Gold is fighting to reclaim its morning gains after pulling back toward the neutral line; the yellow metal was most recently quoted with a 0.1% gain at $1816.50 per ounce. Silver has had a much more difficult morning; it was last quoted with a 1.2% loss at $40.33 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -18.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -28.80. The dollar is up 0.8% against a collection of competing currencies this morning. Its strength comes as many traders seek safety amid renewed worries about Greece's ability to meet its debt obligations. Despite that, the euro has managed to limit its slide to $1.365 for a loss of only 0.2%. Meanwhile, the sterling pound is unchanged at $1.571. As for the yen, it has actually advanced 0.3% to 76.69 yen per dollar.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -17.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -28.30. Overseas markets are either down sharply this morning or have already logged substantial losses in the latest round of trade. That has weighed on premarket sentiment, such that stock futures point to a decisively lower start to the new week. Early selling marks a reversal in sentiment from the positive bias that took stocks higher for five straight sessions last week, resulting in a weekly gain of more than 5%. It was only the second weekly gain for the S&P 500 in nearly two months. Buying last week was primarily underpinned by improved confidence in the fiscal and financial conditions of the eurozone. That said, rekindled concerns over the possibility of a debt default, by Greece or its ilk, have stirred sellers to action today. Despite the early pressure, gold is only seeing moderate buying interest -- it is up 0.2% to $1818 per ounce -- but the dollar has advanced a sharp 0.9% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Also in the backdrop this morning, President Obama is expected to present a plan intended to balance the federal budget.

06:52 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -16.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -27.00.

06:52 am : FTSE...5256.04...-112.40...-2.10%. DAX...5406.90...-166.60...-3.00%.

06:50 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...18917.95...-537.40...-2.80%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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