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 Post subject: September 16th Friday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +16.80
PostPosted: Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:37 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +16.80 points or $1680.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=1000.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=143&t=1197

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Advance As S&P 500 Posts Longest Rally Since July

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Cali Carlin reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks advanced for a fifth straight day, the longest rally since July for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, amid optimism that European leaders will make further progress on controlling the region's debt crisis. Bloomberg's Pimm Fox also speaks.

Stocks Clinch 5-Day Winning Streak

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By Hibah Yousuf September 16, 2011: 4:37 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks posted solid gains Friday to clinch a 5-day winning streak for the first time in more than two months.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 76 points, or 0.7%, the S&P 500 (SPX) added 7 points, or 0.6%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) edged up 15 points, or 0.6%.

The day's gains helped the Dow and S&P post their best weekly advance in more than two months, with each index up around 5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 6.3% for the week, it's best 5-day move in more than two years.

Stocks had a strong start to the day, briefly slid into the red, and then bounced around in positive territory throughout the afternoon.

Friday's mild volatility was in part due to traders adjusting their portfolios during so-called "quadruple witching." The term refers to the phenomenon that takes place four times a year when several derivatives contracts expire at the same time -- those tied to market index futures, market index options, stock options and stock futures.

But investors' primary attention remains on Europe's debt crisis, as the region's finance ministers gather in Poland.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is also attending the two-day meeting, where leaders are expected to continue to be supportive of Greece.

"We recognize the significant efforts made by the Greek authorities over the past year aimed at stabilizing public finances and reforming economy," said Eurogroup president Jean-Claude Juncker, at the meeting.

Overall, moves in the market were somewhat subdued Friday, as news from the meeting in Poland is not expected until the weekend, said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Chandler said the focal point of the meeting is likely to be the expansion European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which is the bailout fund for Europe's cash-strapped countries, including Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.

Despite the week's strength, stocks remain in the red for the year.

U.S. stocks closed higher Thursday as banks led the market higher, following a coordinated effort by five central banks to help ward off a credit crisis in Europe.

The European Central Bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve and three other major central banks agreed to step in to boost dollar liquidity for banks in Europe.

The move comes amid signs of a pullback in bank-to-bank lending, as European Union officials struggle to resolve long-standing sovereign debt issues.

But of course, Europe's underlying debt issues remain, and a lasting solution will be difficult to hammer out.

Economy: The University of Michigan's initial reading on its consumer sentiment index came in at 57.8 for September, above estimates for 56.3 and the August reading of 55.7.

Companies: Shares of Research in Motion (RIMM) fell 19% a day after the company announced grim second-quarter results that fell far short of Wall Street's sales and earnings forecasts.

* Video - RIMM rocked by slow sales

RIM earned $329 million in the quarter, less than half of its profit a year earlier. RIM booked a one-time charge of $118 million for costs associated with a reorganization announced in July.

One day after the Swiss bank disclosed a $2 billion loss due to a rogue trader, UBS (UBS AG) shares rose 4%, as reports indicate the bank might be forced to consider layoffs.

And in a sign the loss could have long-term implications, Moody's placed the bank's credit rating on review for a possible downgrade.

Netflix's (NFLX) stock remained under pressure, with shares down 8%, making it a big laggard on the S&P 500. Netflix plunged 19% Thursday after the company cut its subscriber forecast for the current quarter, saying it now expects to end the period with 24 million customers -- down from the 25 million the company forecast just a few weeks ago.

World markets: European stocks closed mixed. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) ticked up 0.6%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany rose 1.2% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) slipped 0.5%.

Asian markets ended higher. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) added 0.1%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong gained 1.4% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) jumped 2.3%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar strengthened against the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound.

Oil for October delivery slipped $1.44 to $87.96 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery jumped $33.30 to $1,814.70 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged higher, with the yield slipping to 2.07% from 2.08% late Thursday.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Quadruple Witching options expiration made for choppy action on Friday, but stocks still scored their fifth straight gain. That string of advances resulted in a weekly gain of 5.4%, which is the best weekly performance since late June, but only the second weekly gain in eight weeks.

Trade this week started on a negative note as participants reacted to speculation that some of France's primary financial institutions would have their debt downgraded. Such speculation would eventually prove prescient later in the week, when analysts at Moody's cut ratings on Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, but on Monday the attention turned to rumors that a sovereign wealth fund from China was talking with Italy about a bond purchase. That news helped stocks stage a rally, which gained traction as short sellers were squeezed out of their positions.

A similar scenario played out on Tuesday, when stocks benefited from headlines that suggested BRIC countries -- that is, Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- began talks to purchase eurozone debt. The headlines supported the notion that some now see value in Europe, which has been a source of weakness for several weeks because of its precarious fiscal and financial conditions.

That said, participants gained further confidence that the dealings in Europe are headed in the right direction because of news that the European Central Bank has coordinated with other central banks, including the Fed, to make dollar loans available to European banks.

By the end of the week, sentiment had improved to the extent that many traders were compelled to make bids for no better reason than to chase gains. In doing so, many shrugged off underwhelming data.

Among this week's major economic releases, retail sales for August were flat, which is less than the 0.2% increase that had been broadly expected. Excluding autos, retail sales increased by 0.1%, but that still failed to meet the 0.3% increase that had been widely anticipated.

The Producer Price Index for August was flat, as had been generally forecasted. Core producer prices increased by a mere 0.1%, which is essentially on par with the 0.2% increase had been anticipated. Meanwhile, overall consumer prices for August increased by 0.4%, which is greater than the 0.2% increase that had been broadly expected. Core consumer prices increased by 0.2%, as had been anticipated, however.

The latest weekly initial jobless claims tally totaled 428,000, which exceeded the 410,000 initial claims that had been broadly expected. Moreover, the latest initial claims total is up 11,000 from the prior week.

As for manufacturing activity, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September fell to -8.8 from -7.7 in the prior month. It had been expected to come in at -4.0, based on the Briefing.com consensus. In a similar vein, the Philadelphia Fed Survey for September came in at -17.5, which is an improvement from the -30.7 that was posted in the prior month, but still below the -10.0 that had been expected among economists surveyed by Brieifng.com.

In the corporate space, news that Broadcom (BRCM 35.67, +0.35) will acquire NetLogic (NETL 48.33, +0.22) for $50 per share, which represents a hefty premium over last week's closing price, helped semiconductor stocks lead the tech sector to a strong week. As a sector, tech climbed about 7% this week, but the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index advanced almost 10%.

Strength among semiconductors helped the Nasdaq outperform the Dow and S&P 500 in a few sessions, but not everything in the Nasdaq was so cheery. Netflix (NFLX 155.19, -8.31) and Research In Motion (RIMM 23.93, -5.61) both saw their market caps slashed this week in response to disappointing forecasts.

Best Buy (BBY 25.43, -0.25) was another poor performer. The company had the structure of its business model called into question after it reported earnings that failed to meet what Wall Street had expected. DJ30 +75.91 NASDAQ +15.24 NQ100 0.9% R2K 0.1% SP400 0.0% SP500 +6.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1396/2.69 bln/1224 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1521/1.81 bln/1465

3:30 pm : Precious metals closed comfortably higher, aided by continued concerns about the state of global economies, as well as short covering ahead of the weekend. Gold prices, which rallied for 1.9% to close at $1814.70 per ounce, were able to end a two session losing streak. Silver futures ended higher by 3.1% at $40.73 per ounce and also ended a two session decline.

Those concerns translated into losses for crude oil, which settled lower by 1.6% to $87.96 per barrel. Futures sold off furiously throughout the morning, notching lows at $87, but managed to recoup some losses heading into the close of pit trade. Natural gas, which ended down 1.7% at $3.81 per MMBtu, added to yesterday's losses following this week's bearish inventory. Futures put in lows at $3.79 in early afternoon trade and finished just above those lows.DJ30 +44.23 NASDAQ +5.97 SP500 +3.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1044/1.9 bln/1465 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1279/1.0 bln/1730

3:00 pm : Stocks head into the final hour of the session on track for their fifth straight advance, which has left stocks more than 5% higher than where they began the week. While that makes for only the second weekly gain in eight weeks, it is the best weekly performance for the S&P 500 since the end of June.DJ30 +77.38 NASDAQ +11.28 SP500 +5.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1015/1.73 bln/1480 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1315/944 mln/1620

2:30 pm : The major market averages continue to muddle along with modest gains. The dullness of the day comes despite a deluge of trading activity, given that today is a Quadruple Witching options expiration day.DJ30 +47.87 NASDAQ +4.98 SP500 +1.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1040/1.60 bln/1435 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1310/905 mln/1595

2:00 pm : Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite recently extended their drift lower until they came in contact with the neutral line. Support there has helped them bounce a bit, but leadership remains lacking.

The greenback has had a strong day. It is currently up 0.5% against a collection of competing currencies. The dollar's advance marks a rebound from its recent losses, most of which were due to the euro's advance amid improved sentiment in Europe. Although the euro is down 0.6% today, it is still up 3.0% year to date. DJ30 +43.48 NASDAQ +3.55 SP500 +2.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 985/1.50 bln/1490 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1220/875 mln/1690

1:30 pm : Stocks have been drifting lower from afternoon highs. The action comes as financials and energy issues extend their losses so that the two sectors are both down 0.8%. Tech, up 0.7%, is still a source of support, though.DJ30 +61.68 NASDAQ +9.14 SP500 +4.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1090/1.40 bln/1340 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1365/835 mln/1510

1:00 pm : Sellers cut down stocks this morning, but the major averages have managed to bounce back and reclaim gains. The effort has the market on track for its fifth straight advance.

Action has been rather choppy today, possibly due to the spike in activity associated with Quadruple Witching options expiration, but the positive tone of the past few sessions has helped perpetuate further buying interest today. That said, the there hasn't been much leadership.

Tech and financials, two of the largest and most influential sectors in the market, have diverged today. Tech stocks are collectively up 0.8% as the sector builds on the strength of past performances. As for financials, the sector is down 0.5% as shares of bank stocks fall back under pressure. European bank stocks have also suffered from selling pressure after their prior session rally.

Utilities have been this session's best performers. The defensive-oriented sector has put together a 1.3% gain.

Corporate news has been rather slow today, but Research In Motion (RIMM 24.07, -5.47) has attracted attention for its disappointng earnings and guidance, which have caused the stock to surrender about one-fifth of its market cap today. Despite such a precipitous drop, the stock is still up about 10% from the multi-year low that it set one month ago.

Only been a dearth of data was released for traders to digest today. Net Long-Term Treasury International Capital Flows climbed to $9.5 billion in July from $3.7 billion the month before. Separately, the Consumer Sentiment Survey for September from the University of Michigan bested expectations by improving to 57.8 from 55.7 in the prior month. DJ30 +69.74 NASDAQ +11.01 SP500 +4.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1123/1.30 bln/1275 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1505/805 mln/1365

12:30 pm : Stocks have entered into a sideways chop that has made for some rather dull action in early afternoon trade. Financials and energy stocks continue to lag; they are the only two sectors in negative territory and both are down 0.5%.

Tech stocks are in strong shape, though. The sector, which is the largest by market weight, is up 0.7%. Among tech-related plays, Intel (INTC 21.97, +0.43) and NVIDIA (NVDA 15.69, +0.19) are up with enviable gains. Meanwhile, mobile and wireless communications solutions provider Research In Motion (RIMM 24.00, -5.54) is down dramatically following disappointing earnings and guidance. DJ30 +71.86 NASDAQ +12.66 SP500 +5.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1080/1.20 bln/1325 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1355/770 mln/1520

12:00 pm : Stocks have managed to peel themselves off of the flat line, making for modest gains. The move comes without much leadership, though.

Given that it is a Quadruple Witching session, it may be difficult for stocks to establish a clear path of trade today. The exercising of so many options and futures contracts ahead of their expiration often makes for some rather choppy trade. It also stokes trading volume, which is why more than 700 million shares have already exchanged hands on the NYSE. DJ30 +39.88 NASDAQ +8.10 SP500 +3.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 950/1.05 bln/1405 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1180/730 mln/1660

11:30 am : The stock market is stuck at the neutral line as financials and energy stocks, both down 1.3%, hamper broad market action. Utilities, which lack meaningful market weight, have continued to perform well, sporting a 0.9% gain.

The change of tone among equity market participants has sent some into Treasuries. That has helped the benchmark 10-year Note unwind its loss so that it now trades just above the unchanged mark. DJ30 -5.53 NASDAQ -1.15 SP500 -2.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 990/900 mln/1355 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1240/690 mln/1580

11:00 am : Stocks had sported solid gains in the opening minutes of trade, but sellers have stepped in to send sbocks back to the flat line.

Financials led the move lower after they had been up roughly 1% in the early going. The sector has since fallen to a 1.0% loss, mostly due to weakness among bank stocks. Pressure against bank stocks has the KBW Bank Index down 2.2% at the moment. DJ30 +11.09 NASDAQ -0.11 SP500 -0.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1100/735 mln/1175 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1425/625 mln/1360

10:35 am : Strength in the dollar index has been weighing on select commodities this morning, but some of that pressure has eased. After hitting morning highs of 76.77, the dollar index has been on a downtrend, but remains about 0.22% higher at 76.44.

Overall, commodities are mixed with energy mixed (WTI crude and nat gas lower, brent crude oil, RBOB and heating oil higher), precious metals higher and ag mixed (grains higher, soft commodities lower).

WTI crude oil has been in the red all morning and fell as far as $88.42/barrel. Crude almost moved back into positive territory a few times this morning, but it's now selling off again and hit new session low of $88.20; now at $88.27, down 1.3%.

Natural gas has been on a rather steady downtrend and is now down 1.3% at $3.83/MMBtu.

Precious metals hit new session highs in recent activity on morning strength. Gold hit a new session high of $1802.00/oz and is now up 0.9% at $1798.20/oz. Silver rose as high as $40.53/oz and is currently 2.6% higher at $40.54/oz.DJ30 +42.99 NASDAQ +9.20 SP500 +4.74

10:00 am : The preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey for September from the University of Michigan improved to 57.8 from 55.7 in August. It had been widely expected to improve to 56.3.

Stocks saw some knee-jerk buying in the minutes that immediately followed the better-than-expected Survey, but they have since eased back to earlier levels.

Choppy action could be a constant theme through today's trade, given the expiration of stock options, stock index options, stock index futures, and single stock futures. Their cumulative expiration today makes this a Quadruple Witching session. DJ30 +64.33 NASDAQ +11.88 SP500 +7.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1230/345 mln/815 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1850/480 mln/775

09:45 am : The major market averages are all in positive territory with solid gains. Thus far, the effort has been broad based, but energy stocks are having a difficult time attracting the buying interest that other sectors have garnered. That has left the energy sector to trade only fractionally above the flat line. Alpha Natural Resources (ANR 30.05, -0.40) and Tesoro (TSO 24.15, -0.08) have offset strength in Cameron International (CAM 53.04, +0.54) and Noble (NE 35.41, +0.46). In the backdrop, oil prices are down 0.3% at $89.17 per barrel, which is up modestly from oil's price at the open of pit trade.DJ30 +68.79 NASDAQ +10.69 SP500 +7.73

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.50. Stock futures have recovered from moderate pressure earlier this morning so that the major equity averages now appear poised for a flat start. The tepid tone comes after stocks advanced in each of the past four sessions for a cumulative gain of almost 5%. That stretch ties the market's best streak of gains since five consecutive gains were tied together at the end of June. The positive tone of late has come amid improved sentiment in Europe, where plans of dollar loans to banks have been regarded as a proper step toward stabilizing the precarious fiscal and financial conditions in the region's periphery. Reports have also indicated that a TALF-like program is also being considered in Europe. The notion that Europe's leaders are on the right path has helped the euro rally against the greenback in four straight straight sessions, but it is down 0.5% this morning. Still, the euro is up more than 2% from the seven-month low that it set at the start of the week.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.70. Oil prices are under moderate pressure this morning. The energy component is currently priced at $89.00 per barrel for a 0.5% loss. Still, oil prices are up 2.0% for the week. Elsewhere in the energy complex, natural gas prices are down 0.8% to $3.85 per MMBtu. Natural gas prices head into Friday's trade with a 1.8% weekly loss. Precious metals are garnering support this morning. Specifically, gold prices are up 0.5% to $1791 per ounce. Despite that, gold prices are down 3.8% since the close of trade last week. As for silver, the precious metal was last quoted at $40.16 per ounce, which makes for a 1.7% gain. Silver prices are down 3.6% week to date.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.80. Europe's major bourses are up with solid gains in their final session of the week. That has given the EuroStoxx 50 a 0.7% gain. Among the more closely tracked averages, Germany's DAX has advanced to a 0.6% gain, led by the likes of Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank (DB), and Allianz (AZ). France's CAC currently sports a 0.4% gain with help from Societe Generale and Carrefour. Schneider Electric and BNP Paribas are at the opposite end of the spectrum. Britain's FTSE has worked its way to a 0.5% gain. Banking plays Barclays (BCS), Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), and Lloyds Group (LYG) are leaders there, but Standard Chartered has failed to find positive territory.

Overnight action in Asia took Japan's Nikkei up to a 2.3% gain. Buying was broad based, but Olympus, Pioneer, and Dainippon Screen Mfg. were the top performers. Tokyo Electric, Chubu Electric, and Kansai Electric all logged sizable losses. Mitsubishi UFJ (MTU) and Nomura (NMR) also provided support, but Chiba Bank fell in with the laggards. Hong Kong's Hang Seng scored a 1.4% gain. Li & Fung was a primary leader there. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite struggled to partake in the broad advance. It mustered a mere 0.1% gain.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.50. Stocks climbed almost 5% during the course of the past four trading days, but momentum has slowed this morning. In turn, stock futures point to a mildly lower start for the week's final session. The downward bias comes despite continued strength abroad, where the bourses and averages of both Europe and Asia have put together strong performances in their final session of the week. Yesterday morning it was learned that the ECB will make dollar loans available to European banks, but last night it was reported that an official from the G-7 confirmed that European governments are considering a program that is similar to TALF, although it isn't clear if such a measure would actually be adopted. That report comes amid rumors that Italy could see its debt downgraded. Today's calender is rather light, featuring only Treasury International Capital data at 9:00 AM ET and the latest Consumer Sentiment Survey from the University of Michigan at 9:55 AM ET.

06:51 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.80.

06:50 am : Nikkei...8864.16...+195.30...+2.30%. Hang Seng...19455.31...+273.80...+1.40%.

06:50 am : FTSE...5384.00...+46.50...+0.90%. DAX...5586.85...+78.60...+1.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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