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 Post subject: September 15th Thursday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +8.40
PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 8:39 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +8.40 points or $840.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=999.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=143&t=1197

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Rise As ECB Offers Loans To Banks To Tame Crisis

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Cali Carlin reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rose for a fourth day as the European Central Bank and international policy makers coordinated to lend dollars to banks to tame the credit crisis, offsetting concern spurred by signs unemployment is worsening.

Stock Rally On European Aid Plan

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Annalyn Censky and Ben Rooney September 15, 2011: 4:50 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks closed higher for a fourth consecutive day Thursday as bank stocks led the market higher following a coordinated effort by five central banks to help ward off a credit crisis in Europe.

The European Central Bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve and three other major central banks agreed to step in to boost dollar liquidity for banks in Europe.

The move comes amid signs of a pullback in bank-to-bank lending as European Union officials struggle to resolve long-standing sovereign debt issues.

Shares of French, German and Spanish banks all rallied, with gains spilling over to U.S. banks. Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), JP Morgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) all shot up more than 1.5% on the news.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 186 points, or 1.6%, to 11,433. The S&P 500 (SPX) added 20 points, or 1.7%, to 1,209. The Nasdaq (COMP) ticked up 34 points, or 1.3%, to 2,607.

While the markets cheered the central banks' move, investors were still cautious about the long-term outlook for Europe's debt crisis.

"It's good news in the short term, but as long as the central banks are jumping through hoops to alleviate market pressures, it provides less incentive for governments to reform," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer with Harris Private Bank. "It's not a long-term solution and ultimately forestalls real reform."

* Europe's debt crisis: 5 things you need to know

Despite jitters about Europe, stocks have posted gains each day this week.

That rally was helped along on Wednesday, when German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy insisted that Greece would remain a eurozone member and would achieve its fiscal targets.

Paul Zemksy, head of asset allocation at ING Investment Management, said the market could test the highs it hit at the end of August.

"But I don't think we'll go much higher than that," he added. "We've still got a pretty soggy economy."

Economic data released Thursday underscored the mixed outlook for the United States, where a lack of business and consumer confidence has weighed on growth.

Economy: The government's weekly report on initial claims for jobless benefits came in higher than expected, with claims rising to 428,000 in the latest week from 414,000 the previous week. Economists had expected a modest decline.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Empire State Manufacturing Survey worsened to -8.9 in September, from -7.7 in August.

Another reading on regional manufacturing, the Philadelphia Fed index, showed manufacturing activity slowed in the mid-Atlantic area in September, although less than expected.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index showed prices rose at an annual rate of 3.8% in August -- the highest annual increase since 2008.

* Video - UBS' Unauthorized Trades

Companies: UBS (UBS) shares traded in the U.S. plunged 11%, after the Swiss bank said unauthorized trading resulted in about $2 billion in losses.

While UBS said no client positions were affected by the loss, the investment bank cautioned that it could report a third-quarter loss as a result.

Shares of Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) rose over 7% after the investment bank said John Mack will step down as chairman at the end of the year.

Netflix (NFLX) shares fell 15.8%, after the video rental company reduced its forecast for third-quarter subscriptions in the United States.

World markets: In Europe's afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) gained 2.1%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany added 3.2% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) rose 3.2%.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) fell 0.2%, while the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong added 0.7% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) gained 1.8%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro and the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for October delivery gained 49 cents to settle at $89.40 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery fell $45.10 to close at $1,781.40 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 2.08% from 2% late Wednesday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Another round of broad-based buying gave stocks their fourth straight gain today. They now enter Friday with a weekly gain of almost 5%.

Positive momentum from the past few sessions helped prop up stocks ahead of the open. Buying interest was further bolstered by news that the European Central Bank has coordinated efforts with the Fed and other central banks to extend dollar loans to European banks, so as to help improve their liquidity. The announcement also acted as a tacit pledge of support for the continent's banks, which have been a source of concern amid the precarious fiscal and financial conditions in the eurozone periphery. The news also drove up the euro, but cut down the dollar.

Despite their strong start, stocks encountered some selling pressure when the S&P 500 attempted to push through the prior session's highs, just above 1200. The stock market quickly fell about 1%, but was able to stabilize then stage a steady climb. It paused in the 1202-1204 zone before claiming another leg of gains and settling at its session high.

This session's advance has the stock market up about 4.8% week to date. While that may sound like a heady move, it marks only the second weekly gain for the S&P 500 in eight weeks.

Even though many participants bought stocks for no other reason than to chase gains, Netflix (NFLX 169.42, -39.29) failed to find any support at all. The stock surrendered almost one-fifth of its market cap as it fell to a new 2011 low in response to a downwardly revised customer count.

There wasn't much other corporate news, but traders were dealt a large dose of data. It was generally underwhelming, but it was essentially shrugged off in light of today's positive tone.

The latest weekly initial jobless claims tally totaled 428,000, which exceeded the 410,000 initial claims that had been broadly expected. Moreover, the latest initial claims total is up 11,000 from the prior week.

Overall consumer prices for August increased by 0.4%, which is greater than the 0.2% increase that had been broadly expected. Core consumer prices increased by 0.2%, as had been anticipated, however.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September fell to -8.8 from -7.7 in the prior month. It had been expected to come in at -4.0, based on the Briefing.com consensus. In a similar vein, the Philadelphia Fed Survey for September came in at -17.5, which is an improvement from the -30.7 that was posted in the prior month, but still below the -10.0 that had been expected among economists surveyed by Brieifng.com.

The second quarter current account deficit totaled $118.0 billion. It was generally expected to total $121.5 billion.

Last on the list, industrial production for August increased by 0.2%, which exceeded expectations for no change.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom +0.9%, Health Care +1.0%, Consumer Staples +1.3%, Utilities +1.3%, Materials +1.7%, Tech +1.8%, Consumer Discretionary +1.8%, Industrials +1.9%, Energy +2.0%, Financials +2.6%
Declining Sectors: (None) DJ30 +186.45 NASDAQ +34.52 NQ100 +1.5% R2K +1.3% SP400 +1.3% SP500 +20.43

3:30 pm : Metals remained pressured throughout the session following this morning's announcement that numerous central banks including the Fed, the ECB, the SNB, the BoJ and the BoE, were coducting three US dollar liquidity-providing operations with a maturity of approximately three months covering the end of the year, to European banks.. Gold, which ended lower by 2.4% at $1781.10 per ounce, sold off to its lowest levels at $1775, its worst levels since late August, and finished just above those lows. Silver futures, which also closed down 2.4% on the day to $39.50 per ounce, put in lows at $39.40 and like gold closed just above those lows.

Natural gas, which shed 3.9% to close at $3.89 per MMBtu, sold off sharply following this morning's inventory data, which showed a larger-than-expected build. Futures extended their pullback heading into the afternoon session and notched lows at $3.88 just ahead of the close. It was a quiet afternoon for crude oil, which gained 0.6% to close at $89.40 per MMBtu.
DJ30 +130.93 NASDAQ +25.88 SP500 +19.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1518/1.5 bln/1023 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2236/636.1 mln/800

3:00 pm : Stocks have recovered from a recent slip to trade at their best levels of the day. What's more, the stock market is at its best level since the start of September and up more than 6% from its monthly low, which was set this past Friday.

Although stocks continue to chug along on a strong upward climb, share volume hasn't been terribly strong. As such, hardly a half billion shares have exchanged hands today on the NYSE.DJ30 173.17 NASDAQ 34.05 SP500 19.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1550/1.36 bln/955 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2200/550 mln/775

2:30 pm : The stock market recently attempted to break free from its afternoon trading range, but was unable to gain traction. That has left stocks to eas back into their recent range.

Although the stock market is having a difficult time trending higher from its current level, it remains on pace for an impressive gain. Any finish in positive territory will give the stock market its fourth straight advance. That hasn't happened since the end of August, when stocks put together a 4.7% weekly gain, which is currently the stock market's only weekly gain in seven weeks. Barring a severe sell-off this afternoon or tomorrow, the stock market is expected to post its second weekly gain in eight weeks. DJ30 +158.48 NASDAQ +29.88 SP500 +16.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1530/1.25 bln/970 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2200/505 mln/760

2:00 pm : The S&P 500 continues to dance along between 1200 and 1204. On the surface, the sideways chop appears rather unexciting, but many market participants and traders are waiting to see if stocks can break out of this range to move another leg higher, or if resistance leaves stocks to roll over.DJ30 +131.25 NASDAQ +24.52 SP500 +13.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1410/1.10 bln/1050 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2090/445 mln/830

1:35 pm : Stocks are pulling back after failing to hold their ground near session highs, which were set this morning when the S&P 500 hit the 1204 line.

Treasuries remain under heavy pressure, but a few ticks up from the lows that they set earlier today.

The dollar is also under considerable pressure, leaving it to trail a collection of competing currencies by 0.8%. DJ30 +126.32 NASDAQ +23.34 SP500 +13.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1468/1.04 bln/980 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2160/420 mln/760

1:00 pm : News that the ECB has collaborated with other central banks, including the Fed, to offer European banks dollar loans invigorated stocks before a barrage of selling threatened to undo early gains. The stock market has since rebounded to trade with a 1% gain, on its way to record its fourth straight advance.

Broad buying interest took the S&P 500 above 1200 this morning, but once it touched 1204 it reversed course, falling about 1%. Buyers stepped back in before the broad market measure could come in touch with the neutral line. Stocks have spent the past couple of hours reclaiming gains, but the climb has slowed now that the S&P 500 has crossed back over 1200.

Despite the midmorning selling effort, the upbeat mood among market participants has made for decidedly positive market breadth. In fact, all 10 major sectors are in positive territory. Energy, financials, and industrials, all up 1.5%, are out in front. Consumer staples stocks are in the worst shape, but their still up 0.7%.

In the face of today's bounce, Netflix (NFLX 174.28, -34.43) has plummeted precipitously in response to the company's downwardly revised domestic subscriber count. Its slide this session leaves it near a 2011 low.

Strength today has come in the face of a generally uninspiring dose of data, which featured a higher-than-expected weekly initial jobless claims count, a stronger-than-expected increase in overall CPI (core CPI was on par with what had been expected), and disappointingly low regional manufacturing activity surveys from New York and Philadelphia. The best item in the bunch was a 0.2% increase in industrial production for August because it had been expected to remain flat. DJ30 +140.78 NASDAQ +26.85 SP500 +14.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1415/945 mln/1020 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2098/390 mln/790

12:30 pm : Action among stocks has cooled a bit in recent trade. That has left the major equity averages to enter into a relatively narrow range. Specifically, the S&P 500 has spent the past 20 minutes trading between 1200 and 1202, which is a range that caused some resistance for stocks late in the prior session. This morning the stock market actually managed to push through that area to a session high of about 1204, but after it failed to hold that move stocks retreated sharply.DJ30 +114.28 NASDAQ +18.21 SP500 +11.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1255/830 mln/1135 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1970/345 mln/900

12:00 pm : The market's rebound has paused to take a breather. At its current level, the stock market is now up about 4% week to date. Although that is impressive, stocks still have a ways to go before they can match the near 5% weekly gain that was achieved three weeks ago. Notably, that advance currently marks the only weekly gain for the stock market in eight weeks.DJ30 +102.63 NASDAQ +15.12 SP500 +9.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1200/755 mln/1170 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1930/315 mln/935

11:30 am : Sellers recently redoubled their efforts to take stocks to new session lows, but the broad market was able to find support before it reached the neutral line. The ensuing bounce has both the Dow and S&P 500 back up with strong gains. Strength in the Nasdaq is more moderate today, after it had outperformed its counterparts in the previous two trading days.

Industrials are strong again today. The sector's 1.3% climb comes amid continued strength in Cummins (CMI 97.51, +3.34), which has pushed up to a new one-month high with today's advance. DJ30 +102.67 NASDAQ +13.50 SP500 +9.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1015/655 mln/1335 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1685/270 mln/1130

11:00 am : Stocks recently retreated sharply from their morning highs, but have managed to stabilize. Although the major equity averages remain in positive territory, they currently sit at session lows.

Health care stocks have become a drag on trade. The sector is down 0.6% amid weakness in health care services stocks like Laboratory Corp of America (LH 81.11, -2.00) and Express Scripts (ESRX 40.91, -1.88). Tenet Healthcare (THC 4.64, +0.15), a health care facilities and services provider, is performing quite well, however. DJ30 +55.44 NASDAQ +2.42 SP500 +3.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1115/520 mln/1175 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1695/210 mln/1105

10:30 am : The dollar index remains in the red,but is off session lows of 76.07 after selling off around 9:00am EST. This weakness has given price support to select commodities this morning especially the energy complex and copper.

Crude oil jumped about $1.00/barrel on the sell-off in the dollar index earlier this morning, pushing the energy component to $89.90/barrel. Crude moved above the $90 level in recent activity to put in new session highs, but is currently up 0.9% at $89.69/barrel.

Natural gas has been on a downtrend for three hours now and just hit new session lows of $4.00/MMBtu just ahead of this morning's weekly inventory data. Following the data, which showed a build of 87 bcf versus consensus which called for a build of 80 bcf, natural gas sold off from the $4 area to new session lows of $3.92/MMBtu; now at $3.93, down 2.7%.

Gold has been in negative territory all session and hit session lows of $1779.70/oz around the time pit trading began. Since then, gold momentarily pushed through the $1800 level again, but is currently down 2.2% at $1785.60/oz. Silver moved back below the $40 level in recent activity and is now down 1.5% at $39.94/oz.

Grains posted modest losses in overnight activity. Corn fell 5 cents to $7.19/bushel, wheat fell 5 cents to $7.00/bu and soybeans lost 3 cents to $13.80/bu.DJ30 +86.70 NASDAQ +11.88 SP500 +7.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1347/429 mln/930 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1940/179 mln/843

10:00 am : The Philadelphia Fed Survey for September came in at -17.5, which is an improvement from the -30.7 that was posted in the prior month, but still not as strong as the -10.0 that had been expected among economists surveyed by Brieifng.com.

Despite the disappointing manufacturing survey, stocks are still trading with strength. In fact, the broad market recently bounced up to a new morning high after it had drifted downward from its open. DJ30 +100.93 NASDAQ +19.25 SP500 +10.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1365/145 mln/725 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2065/70.8 mln/120

09:45 am : Stocks are sliding off of their opening levels, but gains remain broad. Financials, up 1.1%, are in some of the best shape. Among financial plays, Morgan Stanley (MS 15.98, +0.58) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 33.53, +0.73) are a couple of the top performers.

Telecom stocks are lagging in early action. The defensive-oriented sector is up only 0.3% as Verizon (VZ 35.64, +0.04) remains mired near the neutral line and Sprint Nextel (S 3.43, -0.10) slumps in the first few minutes of action. DJ30 +104.60 NASDAQ +17.16 SP500 +10.28

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +11.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +23.50. Momentum from recent sessions, partly supported by renewed strength in Europe, and news that European Banks will be able to improve their liquidity through dollar loans has the stock market poised for a decidedly positive start. The improved mood among market participants has come in the face of a batch of relatively uninspiring data, which has featured another weekly initial jobless claims count firmly above 400,000, an unexpected decline by the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, mixed CPI numbers, and a recently released better-than-expected 0.2% increase in industrial production for August. The Philly Fed Survey is due at 10:00 AM ET. In the backdrop of this morning's market action, the Dollar Index has dropped to a 0.9% loss, which brings it in touch with its 200-day moving average. Meanwhile, selling against Treasuries has the benchmark 10-year Note down about a full point so that its yield is up to 2.10%.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +23.50. Stock futures initially spiked in a knee-jerk response to news that the European Central Bank has coordinated efforts with the Fed, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank to offer European banks dollar loans, but futures have since eased off of their reaction highs. The dollar has had a negative response to the announcement; it is now down 0.7% against a basket of major foreign currencies to trade just above its 200-day average. Elsewhere, gold prices are also under pressure -- the precious metal is now down 2.0% to $1790 per ounce. Oil prices are up 0.8% to $89.60 per barrel, though.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.50. Stock futures have surrendered some of their gains in the wake of a deluge of relatively underwhelming data. First off, the latest tally of initial weekly jobless claims totaled 428,000, which is greater than the 410,000 initial claims that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Moreover, the latest initial claims total is up 11,000 from the prior week. Separately, consumer prices for August increased by 0.4%, which is greater than the 0.2% increase that had been broadly expected. Core consumer prices increased by 0.2%, as had been anticipated. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September fell to -8.8 from -7.7 in the prior month. It had been expected to come in at -4.0, based on the Briefing.com consensus. The second quarter current account balance was also just released. It showed a deficit of $118.0 billion, which isn't quite as steep as the $121.5 billion deficit that economists surveyed by Briefing.com had generally expected.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.20. Looking to build on three straight advances, the stock market is currently positioned for a positive start, thanks to strength in stock futures. The improved tone of trade this week has come amid renewed strength in Europe, despite ongoing concerns over the continent's fiscal and financial health. Nonetheless, buying in recent sessions has established an upward momentum that has enticed some traders to set chase. There is a bevy of data on tap for today. The list starts off with weekly initial jobless claims, the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey, CPI figures, and the current account at 8:30 AM ET. Then comes industrial production data at 9:15 AM ET. The Philadelphia Fed Survey follows at 10:00 AM ET. As an aside, today marks the third anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

06:44 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.30.

06:44 am : Nikkei...8668.86...+150.30...+1.80%. Hang Seng...19181.50...+136.10...+0.70%.

06:44 am : FTSE...5309.89...+82.90...+1.60%. DAX...5449.49...+109.30...+2.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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