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 Post subject: September 14th Wednesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +52.80
PostPosted: Wed Sep 14, 2011 6:22 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +52.80 points or $5280.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=998.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=143&t=1197

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Rise as Germany and France Support Greece

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index higher for a third day, as French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said they are convinced Greece will remain in the euro zone.

Stocks Rally On Hopes For Greece

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Hibah Yousuf September 14, 2011: 5:51 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks ended sharply higher Wednesday following a choppy start, after key European leaders calmed jittery investors by insisting that Greece would remain a eurozone member and would achieve its fiscal targets.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) shot up 280 points, or 2.5% before pulling back to end up 141 points, or 1.3%. The gains were broad, with Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500), Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) and General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) leading the blue chips.

The S&P 500 (SPX) added 16 points, or 1.4%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 40 points, or 1.6%.

Following a telephone conference call with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a statement from Merkel's office stressed that the future of Greece is in the eurozone. And Papandreou reaffirmed his debt-ridden country's commitment to take the necessary steps to meet Greece's fiscal goals.

"Investors are looking for green shoots," said Frank Davis, director of sales and trading at LEK Securities. "But there's still no depth in any direction or market stability."

* Merkel, Sarkozy, Papandreou commit to Greece aid

Investors have been parsing through the good, the bad and the downright confusing news about Europe's debt crisis throughout the day, which made for a choppy trading session.

Earlier, headlines suggesting that the Austrian parliament committee "rejected" the expansion of Europe's stability fund spooked investors and sparked a sharp sell-off.

But it turned out the headlines weren't exactly right.

A spokesperson from the Austrian finance ministry told CNNMoney that the Sept. 21 parliament vote to upgrade the stability fund will be delayed to late September or early October, due to a procedural hiccup. But he reassured that parliament has the simple majority needed to pass the measure.

* Europe's debt crisis: 5 things you need to know

"The market survived a false alarm out of Europe," said Scott Marcouiller, chief technical market strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors. "Today's events demonstrate how prone the market is to headline risk."

Investors also grappled with news that Moody's downgraded French banks Credit Agricole and Societe Generale. While the news was disappointing (though expected for some time), the downgrade wasn't as bad as some had feared.

And investors were further heartened by talks coming out of Europe that the European Commission was close to unveiling a proposal for a new common eurozone bond.

The idea of a Eurobond has been talked about lately, as a possible solution to ease the borrowing costs for the weaker members of the 17 euro area nations. But it's faced some opposition from more credit-worthy nations, which would face higher borrowing costs.

* Video - News from Europe could be worse

U.S. stocks managed to log late day gains Tuesday, after French banks BNP Paribas and Societe General debunked rumors that they were having trouble gaining access to funding.

Economy: The Producer Price Index, a measure of wholesale inflation, was unchanged in August, which was in line with expectations. The so-called core PPI -- which strips out volatile food and energy prices -- ticked up 0.1%, after increasing 0.4% the previous month.

Retail sales were flat in August, following a 0.3% rise the previous month. Economists were expecting that sales rose 0.2% in August. Excluding sales of volatile autos, sales edged up 0.1% last month.

Business inventories rose 0.4% in July. The reading was just short of economists expectations for a 0.5% increase.

World markets: European stocks trimmed morning gains and ended modestly higher. Britain's FTSE (UKX) 100 rose 1.2%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany rose 3.1% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) added 1.3%.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) gained 0.6% and the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong rose 0.1%, while Japan's Nikkei (N225) shaved 1.1%.

Companies: Shares of Hertz (HTZ, Fortune 500) spiked 13%, after Avis Budget Group (CAR, Fortune 500) said it is dropping its $1.5 billion bid for Dollar Thrifty (DTG) -- leaving Hertz as the sole bidder. Hertz and Avis Budget have been making rival proposals for Dollar Thrifty for more than a year.

Shares of cereal maker Ralcorp (RAH) sank 7% after ConAgra (CAG, Fortune 500) reiterated its $94 a share takeover offer, but said it would withdraw that bid if it wasn't accepted by Sept. 19.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar slipped against the euro and the Japanese yen, but rose versus the British pound.

Oil for October delivery slipped $1.30 to settle $88.91 a barrel.

Gold futures for December fell $3.60 to settle at $1,826.50 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury dipped, pushing the yield up to 2%.

The 10-year yield fell through its long-term floor of 2% for the first time in history last month.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Momentum was lost in the final minutes of the session, but the major equity averages still scored gains in excess of 1%. The effort gave stocks their third straight gain.

The S&P 500 is now up 3% week to date. Should the market maintain its positive posture for the next couple of sessions, it will score only its second weekly gain in eight weeks.

Recent buying interest comes in response to improved sentiment related to the precarious fiscal and financial conditions of Europe. In response to such concerns, France and Germany led a call that reportedly concluded Greece will carry out all acts to meet budget plans. That was hardly surprising. Participants also took in stride today news that Credit Agricole and Societe Generale, two of France's leading financial institutions, had their ratings downgraded by analysts at Moody's after the threat of such a decision had already circulated at the start of this week.

Tech proved integral in today's climb. The sector, which is the largest sector by market weight, initially led stocks back from an early slip through near-term resistance. That eventually convinced some traders to set chase. Although the S&P 500 managed to cross 1200, it failed to hold its position there and closed off of its high.

The positive tone to today's trade helped pull down the Volatility Index, which set a two-week high above 43 earlier this week. The VIX is down almost 20% from that mark.

Treasuries had a relatively quiet session, despite strength among stocks and a reduction in expectations for volatility. As such, little reaction was had to the latest 30-year Bond sale, which saw relatively strong demand after auctions earlier this week produced some unimpressive results. The auction drew a bid-to-cover of 2.85, dollar demand of $37.1 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 39.4%.

The dollar had a down day. It shed 0.3% against a collection of competing currencies. Its downturn was largely driven by buying in the euro, which ended the trading day 0.5% higher at $1.375 as sentiment surrounding Europe's situation improved.

Economic data was rather dull. Retail sales for August were flat, which is less than the 0.2% increase that had been broadly expected to follow a downwardly revised 0.3% increase in the prior month. Excluding autos, retail sales increased by 0.1%, but that still failed to meet the 0.3% increase that had been widely anticipated.

The Producer Price Index for August was flat, as had been generally forecasted. Core producer prices increased by a mere 0.1%, which is essentially on par with the 0.2% increase had been anticipated.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom +0.5%, Utilities +0.8%, Health Care +1.0%, Consumer Staples +1.2%, Financials +1.2%, Energy +1.3%, Materials +1.6%, Tech +1.6%, Consumer Discretionary +1.7%, Industrials +1.8%
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +140.88 NASDAQ +40.40 NQ100 +1.5% R2K +1.8% SP400 +1.8% SP500 +15.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1900/2.32 bln/649 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2219/1.09 bln/776

3:30 pm : Crude oil futures, which closed lower by 1.4% at $88.91 per barrel, saw a quick uptick following this morning's inventory data, which showed a larger-than-expected draw down. That uptick was quickly erased, however, after futures proceeded to sell-off to fresh lows at $88.21, a 70 cent drop. After a modest bounce of those lows, futures spent the remainder of the session chopping around the $89 level. Natural gas futures gained 1.6% to finish at $4.04 per MMBtu. Prices spiked to highs of the session at $4.10 heading into afternoon trade, but there did not appear to be any headline that coincided with that move. Futures pulled back throughout the remainder of the session to close below session highs.

It was an uneventful day for the precious metals. Gold futures, which ended lower by 0.2% at $1826.50 per ounce, chopped around just shy of the flat line for most of the session. Silver futures, which shed 1.8% to close at $40.54 per ounce, sold off to its lowest levels, at $40.31, heading into afternoon trade and closed just above those lows.DJ30 +259.44 NASDAQ +65.13 SP500 +23.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2000/1.8 bln/543 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2410/721.9 mln/630

3:00 pm : Stocks are extending their climb into the final hour of trade. With stocks now at their best level of the day, the S&P 500 is sporting a week-to-date gain of more than 3%.

The market's climb this afternoon has caused some traders to set chase, while some others are likely having to cover their short positions. That has only augmented the market's move, but it has also helped some of the sectors that had lagged in the early going. As such, industrials have run ahead so that the sector now sports a 2.6% gain. That's even better than the 2.2% gain by the tech sector, which had been a source of leadership in the first half of the session. DJ30 +200.24 NASDAQ +53.15 SP500 +21.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1735/1.52 bln/780 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2140/605 mln/815

2:30 pm : Blue chips Home Depot (HD 33.54, +0.88), DuPont (DD 45.81, +1.18), General Electric (GE 15.83, +0.42), and Intel (INTC 21.21, +0.45) are all up in excess of 2%. Their strength has helped the Dow make up ground against the Nasdaq, which had sported a gain that was more than double what the Dow had achieved earlier today. The Nasdaq continues to be led by tech plays, especially semiconductor-related issues.DJ30 +163.66 NASDAQ +40.00 SP500 +16.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1635/1.37 bln/850 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2000/550 mln/925

2:00 pm : Stocks recently set new session highs, but have begun to drift back from that mark. The three major equity averages are still up by 1% or more, though.

Meanwhile, the dollar has pulled back after making its way up to the neutral line this morning. Its downturn has been driven by a stronger euro, which has rallied to a 0.6% gain. The euro's rally comes amid headlines from a meeting between officials from France and Germany regarding plans for the treatment of Greece. DJ30 +108.79 NASDAQ +28.16 SP500 +10.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1550/1.15 bln/910 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1830/475 mln/1065

1:30 pm : Treasuries continue to trade sideways along the neutral line. The action, or lack of, continues in the wake of results from the latest 30-year Bond sale, which saw relatively strong demand after auctions earlier this week produced some unimpressive results. As for the auction's metrics, it produced a bid-to-cover of 2.85, dollar demand of $37.1 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 39.4%. For comparison, the prior auction produced a bid-to-cover of 2.08, dollar demand of $33.3 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 12.2%. An average of the last sixe auctions results in a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.63, dollar demand of $36.5 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 34.9%.DJ30 +91.20 NASDAQ +26.79 SP500 +9.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1500/1.05 bln/950 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1735/438 mln/1160

1:00 pm : An improved tone among market participants has stocks on pace for their third straight advance. Tech plays have been integral in the move.

Early traders took their cues from Europe, where the major bourses bounced to impressive gains. The buying effort there flew in the face of news that a couple of France's leading financial institutions -- Credit Agricole and Societe Generale -- had their ratings downgraded by analysts at Moody's. The threat of such a decision was already made known earlier this week, though.

Data had little impact on early interest -- retail sales for August were flat, but August PPI numbers were non-threatening. A slightly smaller-than-expected 0.4% increase in business inventories for July, released shortly after the open, were generally ignored.

Despite a positive start to the session, stocks did encounter a flurry of selling during the early going. The effort took the three major averages into negative territory before buyers stepped back in. Ever since, stocks have staged a gradual climb so that they now sport solid gains.

For the second straight day the Nasdaq is out in front of its counterparts. Its lead is largely owed to continued strength in the tech space, especially Dell (DELL 14.70, +0.32), which is up more than 2% following news that it has authorized another $5 billion for share repurchases. Semiconductor stocks have also been a steady source of strength for the tech sector this week. Including today's 1.2% gain, the tech sector is up almost 4% week to date.DJ30 +67.54 NASDAQ +24.54 SP500 +7.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1505/947 mln/925 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1700/400 mln/1160

12:30 pm : Stocks have eased off of their mid-session highs, but continue to sport solid gains.

Tech stocks, which collectively make up the largest sector by market weight, are still among today's strongest performers. As a group, they are up 1.0%. Not to be outdone, consumer staples stocks are also up 1%, collectively.

Despite a positive tone among equities, Treasuries haven't really turned lower. That could be an indication that the risk trade isn't necessarily fully switched on, even though the stock market is on pace for its third straight gain. The top of the hour brings results from the latest auction of 30-year Bonds. So far, auctions this week -- both the 3-year and 10-year -- have been rather lackluster. DJ30 +40.22 NASDAQ +20.68 SP500 +5.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1390/850 mln/1010 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1490/360 mln/1360

12:00 pm : The Nasdaq continues to sport a strong gain that is about double what the broad market has managed. Dell (DELL 14.70, +0.32) has been a top performer in the tech-rich Index, thanks largely to news that the company has authorized an additional $5.0 billion for stock repurchases. That comes on top of the $2.2 billion remaining under prior authorizations.DJ30 +38.33 NASDAQ +20.95 SP500 +5.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1360/740 mln/1000 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1400/320 mln/1455

11:30 am : Stocks have extended their bounce from morning lows. Although the Nasdaq now sports a sizable gain, the Dow has barely crossed the neutral line. This is the second straight day in which the Dow has made a relatively underwhelming display.

The Dow's inability to drive higher comes as many blue chips fail to attract buyers, even amid the market's volatility and a sense of uncertainty related to Europe's fiscal and financial conditions. Among the Dow's components, names like Travelers (TRV 48.59, -0.35) and Caterpillar (CAT 84.13, -0.89) are causing the heaviest drag. DJ30 +20.85 NASDAQ +19.70 SP500 +4.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1225/635 mln/1115 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1180/275 mln/1640

11:00 am : Stocks have worked their way up from sssion lows, but overall action remains rather mixed. As was the case yesterday, tech has been a source of leadership, but energy plays have been under pressure.

Treasuries have made modest ticks higher in recent trade. The dollar has also trimmed its loss against the euro, which is now flat at $1.369. DJ30 -44.35 NASDAQ +4.66 SP500 -1.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1075/500 mln/1225 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 940/210 mln/1845

10:35 am : Oil prices were down about 1.2% in the few minutes that preceded the latest weekly crude oil inventory report, which showed a draw of 6.7 million 000 barrels instead of the draw of 3 million barrels that had been expected. Oil prices initially bounced in response to the report, but have been quick to retrace the move. As such, oil prices are back at $89.05 per barrel to trade with a 1.3% loss.

Natural gas prices have moved up to almost $4.00 per MMbtu for a 0.4% gain after they had been down at the start of pit trade.

Pressure has increased around precious metals. In turn, gold prices are now down 0.5% to $1821 per ounce, while silver has fallen to $40.50 per ounce for a 1.7% loss. DJ30 -40.00 NASDAQ +3.39 SP500 -2.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1500/323 mln/725 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1415/138 mln/1310

10:00 am : A sudden flurry of selling pressure has undercut stocks. The action has left the S&P 500 to trade with a fractional loss. Tech (+0.5%), consumer staples (+0.5%), and consumer discretionary (+0.1%) are the only sectors that have managed to remain in positive teritory.

Business inventory data for July were just posted. They showed an overall increase of 0.4%, which is slightly less than the 0.5% increase that had been commonly expected. DJ30 -14.84 NASDAQ +8.31 SP500 -1.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1535/130 mln/615 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1665/65 mln/955

09:45 am : Early action has been rather choppy, but the major equity averages are up with varied gains. As it did in the prior session, the Nasdaq has moved out in front of its counterparts. Strength among tech issues has been a boon to the Nasdaq.

As a group, tech stocks are up 0.9%, which is better than what any other sector has achieved. Among tech plays, semiconductor related names are some of the strongest performers as they extend their climb to take the Semiconductor HOLDRs ETF (SMH 30.05, +0.42) back near its monthly high. DJ30 +23.08 NASDAQ +16.44 SP500 +3.78

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.70. Stock futures continue to point to a modestly higher start for today's trade. Such a start would build on the back-to-back gains achieved by the broad market. An improved tone of trade in Europe is generally credited for the positive tone of today's premarket trade. The action abroad flies in the face of downgrades on a few of France's leading financial institutions, but that decision may have already been priced into equities since stories of such a move had already been in circulation at the start of the week. An improved tone of trade in Europe has also helped prop up the euro, which is off of its morning high, but still up 0.2% to $1.370. Participants have generally shrugged off the latest dose of data, which featured underwhelming retail sales results for August. Also released were some non-threatening PPI numbers for August. Coming up, though, are business inventory numbers (10:00 AM ET), weekly oil inventories (10:30 AM ET), and results from an auction of 30-year Notes (1:00 PM ET).

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.20. Commodities made nice gains in the prior session, but they are under a bit of pressure this morning. Specifically, oil prices are down 1.0% to $89.30 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade. Prices could experience some volatility with the release of weekly inventory numbers at 10:30 AM ET. Elsewhere in the energy complex, natural gas prices are down 0.5% to $3.96 per MMBtu. Among precious metals, gold prices are flat at $1830 per ounce. Meanwhile, silver was last quoted at $41 per ounce for a 0.5% loss. General weakness among commodities has the CRB Commodity Index down 0.5%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.20. Stock futures have added to their morning gains. Retail sales were flat during August. On average, economists polled by Briefing.com had called for an increase by 0.2% following a downwardly revised 0.3% increase for the prior month. Excluding autos, retail sales increased by 0.1%, but that still failed to meet the 0.3% increase that had been broadly expected. Separately, the Producre Price Index for was flat in August, as had been generally expected. Core producer prices increased by a mere 0.1%, though. A 0.2% increase had been expected. Still on today's calendar are the latest business inventory numbers (10:00 AM ET), weekly oil inventories (10:30 AM ET), and results from an auction of 30-year Bonds (1:00 PM ET).

08:10 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.80. Futures are pointing to modest gains at the open as European markets rally despite the Moody's downgrades of French banks Societe Generale and Credit Agricole. Strength in European equities has propelled the risk trade as the dollar is weaker, treasuries are lower, and precious metals are under pressure. Treasury will hold a $13 billion 30-yr reopening which will likely dictate action in the bond market as traders may begin to try and front run the Fed's supposed 'Operation Twist' that many are expecting to be announced at either the September or November meeting. Today's trade will be impacted by this morning's data dump as PPI, core PPI, retail sales, retail sales-ex auto will all be released at 8:30 a.m. ET and will be followed by business inventories at 10 a.m. ET.

06:52 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.80.

06:52 am : Nikkei...8518.57...-98.00...-1.10%. Hang Seng...19045.44...+14.90...+0.10%.

06:52 am : FTSE...5227.64...+53.40...+1.00%. DAX...5253.17...+86.80...+1.70%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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