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 Post subject: September 9th Friday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +56.70
PostPosted: Fri Sep 09, 2011 10:21 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +56.70 points or $5670.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=994.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=143&t=1197

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Tumble On Speculation Greece May Default

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks fell, erasing a weekly gain for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, on speculation Greece could default on its debt and deepen an economic slowdown.

Deepening Fears About Europe Sink Stocks

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By Hibah Yousuf September 9, 2011: 4:39 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks ended sharply lower Friday, as bad news out of Europe kept piling up. The sell-off triggered the sixth weekly decline in seven weeks for the Dow and S&P 500.

Just before the opening bell, the European Central Bank announced that executive board member Jürgen Stark was stepping down. Analysts say Stark is leaving amid disagreements over the ECB's bond-buying program.

The ECB has been buying bonds issued by troubled European governments in an attempt to stabilize volatile sovereign debt markets, but the program has been criticized for overstepping the ECB's sole mandate to maintain price stability.

Selling gained momentum in the afternoon as investors also grew increasingly concerned about a possible Greek default.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) tumbled 304 points, or 2.7%. At its lowest points, the blue chip index was down 359 points.

The S&P 500 (SPX) slumped 32 points, or 2.7%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 71 points, or 61 points, or 2.4%.

The day's steep losses pushed all three indexes to end in the red for the week. The Dow declined more than 2%, the S&P fell 1.7% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.5%.

"There's a lot of nervousness that Greece could default this weekend, and Greek bonds yields keep rising," said Joe Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading.

* Greek default fears return

Reports said Germany is preparing to shore up its banks to protect them against a Greek default. If Greece's bonds become worthless, that can trigger capital-requirement problems, and a lot of major banks could go under, Saluzzi said.

"The financial contagion could be pretty bad, so investors are getting out now and waiting to see how all of this will shake out," he added.

Earlier Friday, investors were on edge following the surprise announcement of Stark's resignation.

"Stark has been a fairly vocal critic over the ECB's bond purchasing program," said Michael Hewson, analyst at CMC Markets in London. "His resignation highlights the political paralysis at the heart of Europe, and the debt crisis is approaching a tipping point."

Stark's departure along with Bank of Italy Gov. Mario Draghi taking over from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet in November (Trichet is retiring) raises questions about how the region will handle its ongoing sovereign debt problems.

* Bearish bets are on the rise

"A big part of the European debt crisis has been the lack of coherent response from European officials," said Kathy Jones, fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab. "It always seems like they're behind the curve, with too little too late, and all the changes in leadership in the middle of a crisis increases the uncertainty."

Stocks in Europe took a dive following the news and ended sharply lower. Britain's FTSE (FTSE) 100 shed 2.4%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany slipped 4.1% and France's CAC (CAC) 40 fell 3.2%.

The euro slid to a nearly 7-month low against the dollar, trading at around $1.36. The greenback, a traditional safe haven, also gained strength against the Japanese yen and British pound.

* The euro's meltdown

As investors searched for safety, they fled risky investments like stocks and oil and rushed into U.S. Treasuries and gold. The 10-year yield fell to a record low of 1.89% from 1.99% late Thursday, and gold prices added $2, or 0.1% to $1,859.50.

The VIX (VIX), Wall Street's fear gauge, shot up 15% to sit just below 40. A VIX reading higher than 30 is considered a sign that investors are getting worried.

Economy: Investors also digested President Obama's stimulus plan, in which he promises to boost hiring and provide a jolt to the stalled economy, if it becomes law. Mixing $253 billion in tax cuts and $194 billion in new spending, the total bill for the plan is $447 billion.

* Video - Pimco CEO: White House 'finally gets it'

"We know what's been promised, and the size of it is encouraging. But the big question is whether or not it will get passed, and what that process will look like," said Jones. "Nobody wants to relive this summer's debate over the debt ceiling."

* Bernanke to Congress: Don't sacrifice recovery

Investors also continued to mull over also Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech delivered Thursday afternoon. Stocks ended sharply lower Thursday, as investors signaled disappointment that the Fed chief didn't offer any new solutions to the nation's economic slowdown.

Meanwhile, wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in July. Economists were expecting the figure to increase 0.7% after rising 0.6% in June.

Companies: McDonald's (MCD, Fortune 500) stock fell 4%, making it among the worst performers on the Dow. The fast-food chain's same-store sales for August fell short of analysts' expectations.

Retailer Lululemon Athletica (LULU) beat expectations, reporting quarterly earnings of 26 cents per share. But its shares dropped 4.5% on weak guidance.

* Video - Lululemon stock goes, 'Down dog'

Kroger (KR, Fortune 500) topped estimates with a profit of $281 million for the second quarter, and the supermarket chain also reiterated its full-year guidance. But Kroger's stock fell 5.7% as the company's costs continued to rise and cut into profit margins.

Shares of Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) slipped 3%, after a Wall Street Journal report said the bank may increase layoffs to 40,000 from the 30,000 job cuts previously reported.

World markets: Rapidly rising prices in China finally started to slow, giving some relief to consumers in the world's second-largest economy. China's Consumer Price Index showed prices rose 6.2% over the 12 months ending in August.

Asian markets ended lower. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) edged lower 0.05%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong (HSI) slid 0.23% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) dropped 0.63%.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks slumped to a 2.7% loss on Friday. Tenuous fiscal and financial conditions in Europe continue to be blamed.

Weakness among Europe's major bourses weighed on sentiment even before U.S. markets opened on Friday. In turn, stocks slid at the start of the session, extending the prior session's slide.

From the start, selling interest was broad based. Pressure intensified in response to headlines that suggested Germany is planning to support certain banks if Greece defaults on its debt. The headline was circulated before trade in Europe closed; it led Germany's DAX to drop to a 4% loss. The euro also sold off in response to the headline. It sank to a 1.6% loss, as of the closing bell.

Weakness in the euro fueled increased demand for the dollar, such that the Dollar Index rallied 1.2% to a five-month high above its 200-day average.

Skittishness among investors stoked volatility, such that the Volatility Index, often euphemistically labeled the Fear Gauge, climbed more than 16% back toward 40. The VIX hasn't been that high since concerns about Europe's stability had last escalated in mid-August.

In response to broad market weakness and heightened volatility, Treasuries scored strong gains. In fact, buyers drove the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note to a new record low near 1.90% after it had been near 2.30% only a couple of weeks ago.

Friday's drop left the S&P 500 to log its fifth loss in six sessions. It also caused the stock market settle the holiday-shortened week 1.7% lower than where it had started, giving stocks their sixth weekly decline in seven weeks. The downtrend has left the S&P 500 almost 16% below its 2011 high, but more than 4% above its 2011 low.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Energy -3.3%, Financials -3.2%, Materials -3.2%, Health Care -2.9%, Consumer Discretionary -2.7%, Industrials -2.7%, Tech -2.3%, Consumer Staples -2.2%, Utilities -2.0%, Telecom -1.2%DJ30 -303.68 NASDAQ -61.15 NQ100 -2.3% R2K -3.0% SP400 -2.8% SP500 -31.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 412/2.05 bln/2142 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 450/1.22 bln/2577

3:30 pm : Trade in crude oil, which shed 2% to close at $87.24 per barrel, was largely driven by economic concerns, as well as strength in the dollar. Futures traded to their lowest levels, at $85.64, in mid-morning trade, but managed to bounce close to two points off those lows heading into the close. Natural gas prices sold off in mid-morning trade, moving back to levels seen in overnight trade. On the session prices shed 1.6% to finish at $3.92 per MMBtu.

It was a choppy session for gold prices, which gained 0.2% to finish at $1859.50 per ounce. Despite numerous economic concerns, strength in the dollar kept a lid on any potential move to the upside. Silver futures closed lower by 2.1% to $41.62 per ounce.DJ30 -351.92 NASDAQ -74.23 SP500 -34.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 349/1.6 bln/2193 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 390/826.7 mln/2660

3:00 pm : Stocks are at new session lows as they enter the final hour of the day. As things currently stand, the S&P 500 is on pace for its poorest single-session performance since a 4.5% drop on August 18. Moreover, the S&P 500 is on its way to a weekly loss of about 2%, which will make for the stock market's sixth weekly slide in seven weeks. And even though the S&P 500 is up more than 4% from its 2011 low, set in August, it is still 16% below its 2011 high, which was set in May.DJ30 -359.19 NASDAQ -76.15 SP500 -37.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 355/1.40 bln/2155 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 400/715 mln/2610

2:30 pm : Stocks are stuck near session lows. The extent of today's slide has the Volatility Index, often euphemistically dubbed the Fear Gauge, up 15% today. The VIX hasn't made a spike like that since mid-August, when participants were esepecially sensitive to concerns about Europe's sovereign debt and financial conditions.DJ30 -315.37 NASDAQ -65.56 SP500 -32.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 350/1.25 bln/2130 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 405/635 mln/2585

2:00 pm : Stocks are back near their session lows, headed for their worst loss in a week. That said, stocks are also headed for a weekly loss of 1.7%, which would make for the market's worst weekly performance since a 4.7% weekly decline recorded on August 19.

Even though this has become a slow-news Friday afternoon, participation remains relatively impressive, given the 600 million shares that have traded hands on the NYSE. Action is decidedly bearish considering that declining volume outnumbers advancing volume by about 19-to-1 on the Big Board. DJ30 -315.79 NASDAQ -62.62 SP500 -31.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 395/1.17 bln/2075 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 400/595 mln/2580

1:30 pm : The stock market's recent attempt to peel itself off of its session low has been checked by some more selling. Stocks are still up from their worst levels of the day, though.DJ30 -301.18 NASDAQ -55.34 SP500 -29.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 415/1.07 bln/2035 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 395/545 mln/2565

1:00 pm : Renewed worries about fiscal and financial conditions in Europe have weighed heavily on stocks this session. Although the market has begun to rebound, it remains on track for another weekly loss.

Stocks entered today's trade sporting a weekly gain of about 1%, but that has been completely dashed by a broad-based sell-off that has left the S&P 500 down more than 2% for the day and off 1.5% for the week. Only once in the past seven weeks have stocks actually put together a weekly gain.

Sellers have been generally indiscriminate in their efforts. Of the major sectors, only telecom and tech have managed to limit their collective losses to less than 2%. Still, telecom stocks are down 1.3% while tech stocks are off by 1.9%.

Selling interest initially came amid more weakness in Europe, where the major bourses resumed their downtrend. Stocks secured some support when the S&P 500 came in contact with its weekly closing low, near 1165, but sellers redoubled their efforts in response to headlines that Germany is close to a plan that would enable it to support certain banks if Greece defaults on its debt.

The headline took a heavy toll on Germany's DAX, which descended to a 4% loss. Weakness in the rest of the region left the EuroStoxx 50 to retreat to a 2.6% loss. The euro also took a sharp turn lower; it has since worked its way off of its session low, but is still down 1.3% to $1.372.

Weakness in the euro has bolstered the greenback. In turn, the Dollar Index is up 0.9%, which puts it at a multi-month high above its 200-day moving average.

Treasuries have also benefited from a flight to safety, such that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note dropped to a new record low near 1.90%. Just a couple of weeks ago the Note's yield had been near 2.30%. DJ30 -310.56 NASDAQ -56.54 SP500 -30.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 360/980 mln/2090 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 340/490 mln/2610

12:30 pm : An interest in safety has sent traders into Treasuries. Although the benchmark 10-year Note isn't up dramatically, buying has nonetheless sent the Note's yield to a record low just above 1.90%. Just two weeks ago the Note's yield had been near 2.30%.DJ30 -296.33 NASDAQ -55.10 SP500 -29.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 365/860 mln/2040 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 360/435 mln/2570

12:00 pm : Stocks continued to descend deeper into negative territory. However, the dollar has rallied to a new session high against the euro, which is now down 1.8% to $1.365 following the headlines about Germany's plans to support banks if Greece defaults. Despite the drastic movement today, the Dollar Index is still down 2.4% year to date while the euro is up 2.0% against the greenback this year.DJ30 -292.21 NASDAQ -54.51 SP500 -29.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 500/700 mln/1860 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 425/355 mln/2455

11:30 am : A flurry of selling pressure has undercut stocks, taking them from morning highs to fresh session lows. The effort comes in response to headlines suggesting that Germany is close to establishing plans that will enable the country to help protect banks in the event that Greece defaults on its debt. Just yesterday, European Central Bank President Trichet expressed that Greece should not take for granted its next tranche of financial aid.

Europe's bourses have also reacted negatively. In turn, Germany's DAX has dropped to a 3.8% loss; France's CAC has fallen to a 3.4% loss, and; Britain's FTSE is now off by 1.9%. DJ30 -240.11 NASDAQ -39.43 SP500 -24.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 612/565 mln/1705 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 530/285 mln/2235

11:00 am : Although the path has been choppy, stocks continue to work their way up from their morning lows. Of the major equity averages, the Nasdaq is now in the best shape. It has been helped along by support for tech stocks, which also fared relatively well in the prior session. As a group, tech stocks are currently down only 0.3%, but large-cap chip and semiconductor names like Intel (INTC 20.17, +0.28) are up with enviable gains after Texas Instruments (TXN 26.42, +0.62) narrowed its earnings forecast. The initial reaction to TXN's revision was actually quite negative.DJ30 -155.94 NASDAQ -16.06 SP500 -13.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 645/385 mln/1620 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 500/200 mln/2275

10:30 am : Crude oil prices are trading to the downside this morning, following global indices lower. Currently, crude prices are lower 2.1% to $87.16 per barrel. Futures fell to their lowest levels, at $86.29, following the open of pit trade and are trading just above those levels in mid-morning trade. Natural gas prices, currently lower 0.7% to $3.95 per MMBtu, fell earlier this morning, giving back gains from yesterday's move to the upside. However, after trading to lows, at $3.88, prices have rebounded to trade back to levels seen in overnight trade.

Despite volatility in the dollar, and weakness in global indices, gold futures are trading right around the flat line at $1855 per ounce. Silver futures, currently off 1.8% to $ 41.79 per ounce, remain in negative territory as they struggle to recoup losses from an overnight sell-off.DJ30 -163.47 NASDAQ -15.81 SP500 -15.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 623/363.2 mln/1613 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 529/189.2 mln/2283

10:00 am : The S&P 500 recently came in contact with its weekly closing low of 1165, but it has managed to make a modest move off of that mark. Still, weakness remains widespread.

Wholesale inventories were just released. They showed a 0.8% increase, which has bested the Briefing.com consensus call for a 0.7% increase. It has also exceeded the 0.6% increase that was posted in the prior month. DJ30 -171.34 NASDAQ -26.10 SP500 -15.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 312/120 mln/1820 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 260/75 mln/2415

09:45 am : Aggressive selling at the open has left the major equity averages to trade with losses well in excess of 1%. The early slide has left the stock market about 0.6% lower for the week, on pace for its sixth weekly decline in seven weeks.

Generally indiscriminate selling has left every sector except telecom (-0.8%) to trade with a loss of more than 1%. Among them, financials and energy are in the worst shape -- both sectors are down 1.7%.

Although weakness is widespread, the benchmark 10-year Note has moved only modestly higher. Still, its yield is back below 2.0% to trade near the multi-decade lows that it set earlier this week. DJ30 -195.65 NASDAQ -32.36 SP500 -18.52

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.80. Stock futures are moving lower with the approach of the opening bell. Early weakness, which has mirrored the selling efforts of Europe, is putting at risk the stock market's 1% week-to-date gain. Prior to this week, stocks scored only one weekly gain in more than a month. Many of the more commonly held commodities have also encountered selling. Specifically, oil prices have extended their early loss to 2.3%, leaving crude oil contracts to price the commodity at $87 per barrel. Meanwhile, silver has slid 2.0% to $41.66 per ounce and gold has fallen 0.6% to $1846 per ounce. The greenback has managed to build on its prior session gain, however. It was last quoted with a 0.7% lead over a collection of competing currencies. That takes the Dollar Index above its 200-day moving average to its highest level in more than five months.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.50. Stock futures have slipped a bit in recent trade. Europe's major bourses have been wrestling with selling pressure for a few hours now. France's CAC is in the worst shape. It has fallen to a 1.2% loss amid pronounced weakness in Societe Generale, Axa (AXA), Credit Agricole, and Alcatel-Lucent (ALU). Vivendi is currently the only issue in positive territory. France reported a 1.5% increase in industrial production during July. That marks a strong reversal from the 1.5% decline that had been experienced in the prior month. Germany's DAX is now down 0.6%. Commerzbank is leading the move lower, but automakers BMW and Daimler have provided support to the broader bourse. According to data, Germany's final CPI for August showed a 2.4% increase, which is greater than the 2.3% increase reported in the preliminary report. Britain's FTSE has fallen to 0.5% loss as weakness among banking issues like Barclays (BCS), Lloyds Group (LYG), and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) undermines broader trade. Despite that, Tullow Oil is staging one of its strongest single-session surges in years following news of a large offshore oil discovery.

Overnight action in Asia left Japan's Nikkei to shed 0.6%. Fanuc Corp, Komatsu, and Sumitomo Heavy Industries weighed most heavily on action. CSK Corp, Heiwa Real Estate, and Aozora Bank were among the best performing issues. According to data, Japan's final reading on second quarter nominal GDP showed a 1.5% decline, which is slightly less than the 1.6% decline that had been reported in the preliminary report. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng shed 0.2%. Real estate plays suffered some of the most intense selling pressure. As for China's Shanghai Composite, it finished the week on a flat note. Although many financial issues suffered, China Construction Bank was able to put together a decent gain. In a bundle of data, China's CPI for August registered a 6.2% increase, which is less than the 6.5% increase recorded for the same period one year ago. PPI for August spiked an even sharper 7.3%, but that was also less than the 7.5% rate recorded for the same period one year ago. China also reported a 13.5% increase in industrial production for August. One year ago China experienced a 14.0% increase in industrial production.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.80. Commodities are under pressure this morning. As such, the CRB Commodity Index is down 0.8%. Among its more widely tracked components, crude oil prices are down 1.3% to $87.90 per barrel ahead of pit trade. Natural gas prices are down 1.2% to $3.93 per MMBtu. As for precious metals, gold prices have moved 0.8% lower to $1844 per ounce after staging a strong rally in the prior session. Silver prices are down an even deeper 1.8% to $41.75 per ounce.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.20. Stock futures have pared losses after the resumption of selling pressure in the prior session and weakness abroad had initially undermined premarket trade. President Obama's jobs plan, which was unveiled last evening, didn't really do anything to improve sentiment. News that China's CPI tempered somewhat to a still heated 6.2% has also been shrugged off. Although corporate news has been generally relegated to secondary interest amid the ongoing concerns about sovereign debt and global economic growth, a disappointing earnings forecast revision from Texas Instruments (TXN) has put added pressure on a handful of chip and semiconductor issues. The calendar of events is sparse today. It features only monthly wholesale trade data at 10:00 AM ET.

06:46 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.00.

06:46 am : Nikkei...8737.66...-55.50...-0.60%. Hang Seng...19866.63...-46.20...-0.20%.

06:46 am : FTSE...5316.77...-23.60...-0.40%. DAX...5357.14...-51.30...-1.00%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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