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 Post subject: September 8th Thursday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +54.10
PostPosted: Thu Sep 08, 2011 4:17 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +54.10 points or $5410.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=993.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=143&t=1197

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Retreat As Bernanke Avoids Offering Growth Plan

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks fell, after the biggest gain in two weeks for benchmark gauges, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke disappointed investors by not detailing new plans to boost growth in the world's largest economy.

Stocks Retreat After Bernanke Disappoints

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By Ben Rooney September 8, 2011: 4:56 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks fell Thursday after Ben Bernanke made a speech that failed to knock investors' socks off.

The Federal Reserve chairman reiterated previous statements that the central bank stands ready to use certain "tools" to help stimulate the economy. But he offered no indication as to which of those tools the Fed is, or is not, prepared to use.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 119 points, or 1%, to end at 11,296. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost 13 points, or 1%, to 1,186. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) slid 20 points, or 0.8%, to 2,529.

Shares of Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500) were among the weakest performers on the Dow. But strength in the technology and consumer staples sectors helped support the index. Cisco, (CSCO, Fortune 500) Microsoft, (MSFT, Fortune 500) Kraft (KFT, Fortune 500) and Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500) were all higher.

Speaking in Minnesota, Bernanke repeated his argument that lawmakers should not put the economic recovery at risk in the debate over reducing the nation's budget deficit.

"While prompt and decisive action to put the federal government's finances on a sustainable trajectory is urgently needed, fiscal policymakers should not, as a consequence, disregard the fragility of the economic recovery," the nation's top monetary policymaker said.

* Bernanke to Congress: Don't sacrifice recovery

The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee will meet later this month to discuss the economic outlook and policy measures. Some investors had anticipated that Bernanke would drop some sort of hint on which direction the Fed is leaning.

"There was some expectation he would be a little more clear on the alternatives the Fed would be discussion on September 21," said Kate Warne, chief investment strategist with Edward Jones. "Some were disappointed that he didn't signal that at all."

The Fed has already committed to keeping interest rates low for the next two years. But recent economic data, including a particularly bad August jobs report, have raised expectations for more stimulus measures.

With Bernanke out of the way, investors are now focusing on what President Obama will say Thursday night when he addresses Congress.

Obama is expected to propose roughly $300 billion in stimulus measures to get job creation back on track. But there are doubts about how effective the proposals will be, or if lawmakers will even accept them.

"The question is: What will the president be able to push through Congress, how quickly will it take hold, and will it make a difference?" said Quincy Krosby, market strategist with Prudential Financial.

Investors have been on edge amid a host of political and economic uncertainties around the world.

In the U.S., the economic recovery has lost momentum, and it's unclear what the government can do to get it back on track.

At the same time, Europe continues to do battle with a spiraling debt crisis that has pressured the European Union to its breaking point.

"There's still a lot of uncertainty out there, and people are taking a step-by-step approach," said Ryan Larson, a senior equity trader at RBC Global Asset Management.

Stocks are coming off of sharp gains Wednesday, following a three-day rout.

* Video - Why it sucks to be middle class

Economy: Filings for first-time unemployment benefits rose 2,000 to 414,000 in the week ending Sept. 2, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That was up from the 409,000 claims filed the week before, and worse than the 400,000 claims economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected.

The U.S. trade gap narrowed to $44.8 billion in July, led by a surge in exports. Trade balance figures were expected to show the deficit widened to $51.5 billion in July, from $53.1 billion in June.

On the European front, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank opted to keep their key interest rates unchanged.

* Europe: 5 things you need to know

In a statement issued after the rate announcement, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet said the economic outlook in Europe is "subject to particularly high uncertainty and intensified downside risks."

Trichet said the ECB now expects economic growth in the eurozone to range between 1.4% and 1.8% this year. In 2012, the bank anticipates growth somewhere between 0.4% and 2.2%.

Companies: The Men's Warehouse (MW) reported a 34% jump in second-quarter earnings compared with last year. Despite the strong performance, shares of the clothier fell 10%.

* Video - Monster, Manpower feel jobs pain

AOL (AOL) stayed in the spotlight as its TechCrunch fiasco continued. Inside sources say TechCrunch's founder Michael Arrington will be fired, in the aftermath of his launching a new venture capital fund -- CrunchFund. Shares of AOL ended the day down slightly less than 1%.

* BofA shakeup signals more layoffs

Shares of Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) edged higher after the search giant announced it bought Zagat, the consumer reviews and survey company, for an undisclosed sum.

The news sent shares of online reservation site OpenTable (OPEN) down a whopping 8%.

World markets: European stocks closed higher. Britain's FTSE (UKX) 100 gained 0.4% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) rose 0.4%. The DAX (DAX) in Germany ended the day little changed.

Asian markets finished mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) slipped 0.7% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong (HSI) shed 0.7%, while Japan's Nikkei (N225) rose 0.3%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained strength against the euro and the Japanese yen, but fell versus the British pound.

Oil for October delivery fell 29 cents to settle at $89.05 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery rose $39.90 to close at $1,857.50 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 1.99% from 2.02% late Wednesday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks slid to a 1% loss amid a lack of leadership today. Financials were a considerable source of weakness.

Following a near 3% surge in the prior session, stocks came under pressure this morning. The shift in sentiment came largely in response to mixed action abroad after analysts at Fitch stated that there is potential for both China and Japan to be hit with a debt rating downgrade. The decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep its target rate at 1.50%, without the mention or introduction of any new monetary policy instrument, also dampened the tone of early trade. ECB President Trichet further dampened the mood by announcing a downward revision to the region's GDP forecast.

The latest weekly initial jobless claims count also proved displeasing. Initial claims climbed 2,000 from the prior week to 414,000, which is greater than the 400,000 claims that had been expected, on average, among economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

Little attention was paid to the July trade deficit, which totaled $44.8 billion after it had been at $53.0 billion the month before. A deficit of $51.5 billion had been expected.

Stocks managed to overcome the early weakness, however. The upturn was helped along by tech stocks, which ultimately faltered to finish with a 0.4% loss after they had been up more than 1% at their session high.

Since the start, financials hampered the broad market. Their weakness eventually dragged down the rest of the market and gave sector a 2.3% loss.

Broad market selling pressure picked up around the same time that Fed Chairman Bernanke delivered a speech to the Minnesota Economic Club. Bernanke offered no new clues about the Fed's plans for monetary policy and the economic outlook, but reminded market participants that a range of tools remain available to the Fed.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Utilities -0.1%, Consumer Staples -0.2%, Tech -0.4%, Telecom -0.6%, Health Care -1.1%, Materials -1.2%, Energy -1.2%, Consumer Discretionary -1.3%, Industrials -1.5%, Financials -2.3%DJ30 -119.05 NASDAQ -19.80 NQ100 -0.4% R2K -2.1% SP400 -1.4% SP500 -12.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 616/1.98 bln/1933 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 665/947 mln/2359

3:30 pm : Precious metals performed well today, recouping a majority of yesterday's losses. Specifically, gold prices closed up 2.3% to $1859 per ounce while silver is gained 1.9% to settle at $42.45 per ounce. Commentary from ECB President Jean Claude Trichet, earlier this morning, provided the spark for precious metals. It was, however, a quiet afternoon for gold and silver as both contracts traded sideways below their respective session highs at $1868.70 and $42.73.

It was a very choppy session for crude oil, which settled lower by 0.3% to $89.05 per barrel. While this morning's bullish inventory data pushed futures to their best levels of the morning, a quick sell-off in mid-morning trade easily erased those gains. Crude oil spent the remainder of the session chopping around unchanged. Oct natural gas finished up 1.1% to $3.98 per MMBtu. This morning's in-line inventory data helped futures trade to their best levels of the session at $4.03, but those gains were all for naught after futures sold off heading into the close of pit trade. DJ30 -95.36 NASDAQ -19.12 SP500 -11.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 590/1.50 bln/1940 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 605/615 mln/2385

3:00 pm : Stocks remain near session lows as they head into the final hour. With the end of the trading day approaching, many investors are considering the features of tonight's speech from President Obama. Obama is expected to discuss a plan to stimulate job growth, but many expect that plan components, including tax cuts, will encounter opposition in Congress. That said, many believe that the plan may already be discounted by the market.DJ30 -101.49 NASDAQ -18.09 SP500 -11.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 620/1.37 bln/1860 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 690/600 mln/2290

2:30 pm : Stocks have extended their downturn by notching a new session low. Outside of financials, which are now collectively down 2.0%, overall losses aren't too severe, though.

Given the market's weakness, Treasuries are attracting buyers. That has the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note just below 2.0%. Earlier today the yield on Germany's 10-year Bund set a record low just above 1.8%. DJ30 -79.50 NASDAQ -14.43 SP500 -9.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 730/1.29 bln/1765 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 800/520 mln/2160

2:00 pm : Stocks have dropped out of their recent trading range to set new session lows. Financials, now down 1.7%, remain the heaviest drag on action.

There is no clear cause for the market's pullback. Although the slip coincides with Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech, it is unlikely that Bernanke would issue any kind of new outlook or stance at an Economic Club gathering. DJ30 -65.27 NASDAQ -11.43 SP500 -8.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 725/1.14 bln/1765 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 740/450 mln/2190

1:30 pm : Stocks are still stuck near the neutral line. The sideways chop comes amid a lack of leadership. The broad market has also been hamstringed by weakness among financials.

Quotes from Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech in Minnesota are making their rounds. Bernanke has noted that a range of policy tools remain available to the Fed, but he gave no hint that any new tools will be put to work by the Fed. DJ30 -3020 NASDAQ -0.03 SP500 -3.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 993/1.00 bln/1442 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1125/395 mln/1760

1:00 pm : Stocks spent the first part of the session in negative territory as participants reacted to another initial weekly jobless claims tally that exceeded 400,000, a downward revision to economic growth in Europe by European Central Bank President Trichet, and a statement from Fitch that China and Japan could potentially be hit with rating downgrades.

However, the market was able to punch its way into positive territory as tech stocks began to climb. Tech stocks have since wavered, though, leaving the broad market without much leadership. Listless action has left stocks to drift back to the flat line, where they have spent the past hour stuck in choppy trade.

Financials have resumed their downturn today. The sector fell in three straight sessions for a cumulative decline of loss of 8% before they bounced almost 5% yesterday. They are down almost 1% today, however.

Utilities, up 0.8%, are putting on the best performance. Also defensive in nature, consumer staples are close behind with a 0.7% gain.

Precious metals have been performing well all session. Specifically, gold prices are up 2.3% to $1859.50 per ounce. Gold's gain comes in the face of a stronger dollar, which is up 0.8% against a basket of major foreign currencies. DJ30 -2.80 NASDAQ +3.48 SP500 -0.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 830/915 mln/1580 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 955/360 mln/1940

12:30 pm : Stocks are still in negative territory. Action also remains choppy.

Tech stocks, which represent the largest sector by market weight, had been up almost 1% one hour ago, but that has been dashed to a meager gain of 0.1%. Although the sector carries considerable weight and was up sharply earlier, it hasn't really acted as a leader today. DJ30 -34.66 NASDAQ -2.90 SP500 -4.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 900/795 mln/1505 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 940/325 mln/1920

12:00 pm : Selling pressure has picked up in recent trade. The effort has knocked each of the three equity averages back into negative territory.

In response to the action, gold prices are back up above $1860 per ounce for a 2.4% gain. Meanwhile, the dollar has been bid up to a 0.7% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies. DJ30 -27.85 NASDAQ -3.65 SP500 -4.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1235/690 mln/1125 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1410/280 mln/1440

11:30 am : Stocks are surrendering some of their gains, but they remain in positive territory. Although the overall tone of trade is improved from this morning, defensive-oriented utilities are in some of the best shape. Led by electric utilities, many of which operate regulated businesses that come with a guaranteed return on investment, the group is up 0.8%.

In contrast to utilities, cyclically sensitive tech stocks often offer little if any dividend to investors since most tech firms reinvest earnings in pursuit of new growth, but that sector is up 0.9% today. Of the major sectors, tech is this session's top performing sector. DJ30 +31.87 NASDAQ +10.13 SP500 +1.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1235/595 mln/1105 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1430/240 mln/1379

11:05 am : After retreating to their opening lows, stocks have rebounded in strong fashion. The move has not only taken the major equity averages into positive territory, but to solid gains. Of the major averages, the Nasdaq is in the best shape.

Oil prices have made a modest move higher in recent minutes. The commodity was last quoted with a 0.8% gain at $90.05 per barrel following the latest weekly inventory report, which showed a draw of 3.96 million barrels. That's nearly double the 2-million barrel draw that had been anticipated by many analysts. DJ30 +46.62 NASDAQ +16.16 SP500 +4.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1155/465 mln/1230 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1290/185 mln/1485

10:35 am : Natural gas prices have gyrated in the wake of the latest weekly inventory report, but are now up 0.7% to $3.97 per MMBtu. Weekly inventory data showed a build of 64 bcf, which exceeds the consensus call for a build of 62 bcf.

Meanwhile, oil prices are up 0.4% to $89.75 per barrel after a flat start to pit trade. Weekly oil inventory data are due at the top of the hour.

Precious metals have performed well all session. Specifically, gold prices are up 2.1% to $1855 per ounce while silver is sporting a 1.80% gain at $42.38 per ounce. The action makes for a sharp rebound from the steep slides that the pair of precious metals suffered yesterday. DJ30 +8.55 NASDAQ +8.49 SP500 +0.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 875/310 mln/1340 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 813/135 mln/1905

10:00 am : The stock market made an attempt to turn higher in the first few minutes of trade, but was refused at the flat line. Stocks have since retreated to trade near their opening lows.

Financials are still a point of considerable weakness. The sector is now down 1.7% to its worst level of the morning. Weakness within the sector remains broad. Few stocks have managed to avoid this morning's slide.

At this point, consumer staples stocks are collectively clinging to the neutral line. Meanwhile, utilties, which are also regarded as defensive holdings, are down just 0.1%. DJ30 -34.58 NASDAQ -12.42 SP500 -7.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 965/135 mln/1095 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1135/65 mln/1480

09:45 am : Financials were a source of leadership yesterday, when the sector surged almost 5%, but today the group is grappling with some selling pressure that took the sector to an early loss of more than 1%. The sector has since cut that loss in half, but it is still one of the worst performing sectors of early trade. Insurance issues AIG (AIG 25.03, -0.36) and Hartford Financial (HIG 17.66, -0.17) and regional banking plays PNC Financial (PNC 48.51, -0.57) and Comerica (CMA 23.27, -0.27) are in the worst shape.DJ30 -8.69 NASDAQ -2.33 SP500 -2.55

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.00. Strong, broad-based buying sent the S&P 500 nearly 3% higher to almost 1200 yesterday, but participants are applying some pressure ahead of today's open. The change in mood comes amid some relatively mixed action abroad and commentary from European Central Bank President Trichet, who relayed a downward revision to the region's GDP forecast after the ECB opted to keep its benchmark interest rate at 1.50%. The Bank of England also stood pat on its target rate, which is 0.50%. The BOE also kept its asset purchase program at 200 billion pounds. Premarket sentiment certainly hasn't been helped by news that initial weekly jobless claims continue to exceed 400,000. The inclination to sell stocks this morning has sent many back into precious metals. In turn, gold prices are up 2.3% to $1860 per ounce after they slumped in the prior session.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.00. Oil prices are only a few cents higher in the first few minutes of pit trade; they were last quoted at $89.39 per barrel. Weekly inventory data are due at 11:00 AM ET. Before that, though, weekly natural gas inventory numbers will be posted at 10:30 AM ET. Natural gas prices are currently up 0.7% at $3.97 per MMBtu. Precious metals are performing well after they slumped yesterday. In particular, gold prices are presently up 2.6% to $1864.70 per ounce while silver is up 2.3% to $42.60 per ounce. Early action in the commodity complex has the CRB Commodity Index up just 0.2% this morning.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.30. Stock futures have slipped in response to comments from European Central Bank President Trichet, who recently issued a downwardly revised GDP forecast for the European region. Trichet's comments are putting pressure on the euro, but helping the dollar. As for data, initial jobless claims for the week ended September 3 were just released a few minutes ago. They totaled 414,000, which is up 2,000 from the prior week and greater than the 400,000 claims that had been expected, on average, among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Continuing claims came in at 3.72 million, which is down from the 3.74 million reported for the prior week, but greater than the 3.70 million claims that had been commonly forecasted. Separately, the trade deficit for July totaled $44.8 billion, which is less than the $51.5 billion deficit that had been anticipated among economists polled by Briefing.com. The July deficit is also less than the $53.1 billion recorded in the prior month.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.50. Stock futures had been flat earlier, but they have slipped a bit in recent action. The move follows word that the European Central Bank (ECB) will keep its benchmark lending rate at 1.50%. The press conference of ECB President Trichet (8:30 AM ET) will attract plenty of attention as global investors listen for hints about new developments or plans to stimulate activity in the region. In related news, the Bank of England kept its target rate at 0.50% and will leave its asset purchase plan at 200 billion pounds. The rest of today's calendar includes the latest weekly initial jobless claims tally and international trade figures (8:30 AM ET), natural gas inventory numbers (10:30 AM ET), crude oil inventory data (11:00 AM ET), and a speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke from the Minnesota Economic Club (1:00 PM ET). Well after the close, President Obama is scheduled to unveil a jobs plan (7:00 PM ET), but many expect that the underpinning components of the plan will be challenged in Congress.

06:52 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +0.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.30.

06:52 am : Nikkei...8793.12...+29.70...+0.30%. Hang Seng...19912.82...-135.20...-0.70%.

06:52 am : FTSE...5366.59...+48.00...+0.90%. DAX...5452.21...+46.70...+0.90%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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