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 Post subject: September 1st Thursday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +23.80
PostPosted: Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:48 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +23.80 points or $2380.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=988.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=143&t=1197

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Fall Ahead of Tomorrow's Employment Report

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks retreated, snapping a four-day advance for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as banks fell and investors speculated that tomorrow's jobs report will show the world's largest economy continues to struggle.

Banks Push Stocks Lower

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By Ken Sweet, contributing writer September 1, 2011: 4:30 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks ended Thursday's session solidly lower, as weakness in financial shares offset a stronger-than-expected manufacturing report that initially eased some investor jitters.

However, all eyes are on Friday's jobs report.

"The market is holding its collective breath for tomorrow's payrolls number," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer with Harris Private Bank.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 120 points, or 1%, to 11,494. The Dow had been up more than 100 points following the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing report earlier in the day.

The S&P 500 (SPX) lost 14 points, or 1.2%, to 1,204; and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost 33 points, or 1.3%, to 2,546.

Among the biggest drags on the Dow and the S&P were the major investment banks, notably Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500). The sell-off came after the Federal Reserve sanctioned Goldman for its mortgage practices, with monetary damages to be assessed later. Goldman, BofA and JPMorgan all shares fell more than 3%.

Stocks had been positive most of the day after a somewhat better report on manufacturing activity from the ISM. Its manufacturing activity index came in at 50.6 for August, ahead of the 47.0 economists had expected.

"Today's ISM report is just the latest data point which contributes to our 'no imminent recession in the United States' call," said Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist with BTIG, in a note to investors.

* $350,000 hiding in cash. Time to get back in the markets?

In other data, the Labor Department said the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits fell by 12,000 to 409,000 last week. The number was just shy of forecasts.

But the focus for investors is Friday's monthly jobs report. A CNNMoney survey of 21 economists forecasts that the U.S. economy added 75,000 jobs overall, and the unemployment rate remained at 9.1% in August.

Although stocks ended Wednesday, the last day of August, slightly higher with a four-day winning streak, overall it was a brutal month for the market. Investors battled through volatility, starting with the debt ceiling debate.

The turmoil really set in after Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. credit rating. That acted as the catalyst for two weeks of wild swings as investors feared the U.S. would tip back into a recession.

Companies: Retailers were among Thursday's top performers, including shares of Macy's (M, Fortune 500) and Costco (COST, Fortune 500), after both companies reported better-than-expected same-store sales for August. Both Macys and Costco shares rose on the day.

Bank of New York Mellon (BK, Fortune 500) ousted CEO Robert Kelly late Wednesday, citing "differences" in how the company was managed. The bank's president, Gerald Hassell, has taken on the chief executive and chairman roles.

Major automakers Ford (F, Fortune 500), Toyota (TM), GM (GM, Fortune 500) reported sales figures for August. GM and Ford sales came in a bit short of forecasts, but Chrysler sales beat expectations. Ford and GM shares were down 2% and 4% respectively.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained ground against the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound.

Oil for October delivery fell a penny to $88.81 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery fell $2.60 to $1,829.10 an ounce.

* Treasuries: Reversal or consolidation?

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 2.17% from 2.22% late Wednesday.

World markets: European stocks closed mixed in Thursday trading. Britain's FTSE (FTSE) 100 rose 0.5%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany tumbled 1% and France's CAC (CAC) 40 rose 0.3%.

Asian markets ended the session mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) fell 0.4%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong (HSI) rose 0.3% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) gained 1.2%.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Better-than-expected domestic manufacturing data gave stocks a boost in the early going, but resistance triggered selling pressure that eventually intensified amid a weakened financial sector.

The first few minutes of trade lacked leadership. Participants were taking into account the latest initial jobless claims tally, which totaled 409,000. That was in stride with the 407,000 claims that had been widely anticipated. An upward revision to the prior week's count helped inflate the four-week moving average to 410,250.

Revised unit labor costs for the second quarter were also released ahead of the open. They showed a 3.3% increase, down from the 6.2% increase that had been posted in the preliminary report. A 2.4% hike had been expected.

A 1.3% decline in construction spending during July contrasted with the consensus call for no change, but that was ignored amid the ISM Manufacturing Index for August. The Index fell to 50.6 from 50.9 in the prior month, but it still bested the 48.5 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Although the health of domestic manufacturing exceeded what had been anticipated, PMI Manufacturing readings from both Germany and France disappointed.

Stocks reacted positively to the ISM's upside surprise, but the broad market was quickly brushed back when the S&P 500 failed to break through resistance near the 1230 region, which represents the 50% retracement level of the July high to August low. Stocks then hugged the neutral line for a few hours before drifting into the red.

The major averages fell another leg lower and drifted downward into the close after it was learned that Goldman Sachs (GS 112.16, -4.06) is the target of a formal enforcement action by the Fed regarding residential mortgage loan servicing and foreclosure processing. Financials, which had already been lagging, suffered a 2.4% loss as a result of pressure against investment banks and brokerages.

Retailers were also pressured sharply. Their collective loss totaled more than 2%, as measured by the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 48.50, -1.10), in the wake of the latest round of same-store sales results. The majority of retail players reported stronger-than-expected results, but that mattered little amid broad market weakness.

Participants were generally unwilling to offer support into the close. Their caution comes as some begin to wonder if stocks are due for some selling after they entered today's trade riding an upward trend that led to seven gains in eight sessions. What's more, there is a sense of uncertainty related to the latest non-farm payrolls report, which is due tomorrow. Even though the ADP Employment Change proved solid when it was released earlier this week, many traders remain cautious about what may be in store for tomorrow.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Financials -2.4%, Industrials -1.6%, Consumer Discretionary -1.3%, Materials -1.3%, Tech -1.1%, Telecom -1.0%, Energy -0.9%, Health Care -0.7%, Utilities -0.6%, Consumer Staples -0.4%DJ30 -119.96 NASDAQ -33.42 NQ100 -1.0% R2K -2.5% SP400 -1.7% SP500 -14.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 516/1.74 bln/2026 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 801/1.02 bln/2227

3:30 pm : It was another choppy session for the precious metals. Dec gold settled lower by 0.1% to $1829.70 per ounce, while Dec silver gained shed 0.2% to finish at $41.66 per ounce. Both metals traded to their lowest levels of the session, at $1815.50 ad $41.20 respectively, in midmorning trade. Gold spent the remainder of the session recouping those losses and closed near unchanged ahead of tomorrow's NFP data. Silver futures recouped their sell-off rather quickly and spent the remainder of the day chopping around the flat line.

Headlines that operators in the Gulf of Mexico are evacuating non-essential personnel due to the formation of a tropical wave and tropical storms in the area helped Oct crude oil, which settled up 0.1% to $88.93 per barrel, recoup modest losses. After a modest stint in positive territory, futures pulled back to the flat line where they closed on the session. Oct natural gas closed lower by 0.5% to $4.03 per MMBtu.
DJ30 -97.25 NASDAQ -30.34 SP500 -11.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 545/1.4 bln/1964 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 846/734.4 mln/2207

3:00 pm : Stocks have failed to recover from session lows. As a consequence, the S&P 500 is on pace for its worst performance in one week. Moreover, the current loss threatens to snap the stock market's four-session winning streak, which has resulted in a cumulative gain of 5%.DJ30 -89.61 NASDAQ -28.70 SP500 -11.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 591/1.21 bln/1909 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 914/623 mln/2102

2:30 pm : Stocks continue to drift deeper into negative territory. The action has helped drive traders into Treasuries, which are now near session highs.

The dollar hasn't done much in recent trade, though. It is still up 0.4% against a collection of competing currencies. DJ30 -86.01 NASDAQ -31.14 SP500 -11.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 544/1.10 bln/1937 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 820/565 mln/2186

2:00 pm : Selling pressure has picked up in recent trade, causing the major equity averages to descend to their worst levels of the day.

The latest leg lower comes after stocks had already paused near earlier session lows, but were pushed through that point by a drop in the financial sector, which is now down 1.8%. The financial sector's slide comes as shares of Goldman Sachs (GS 112.20, -4.02) are hit with some aggressive selling in response to news that that Federal officials are filing suit against the company for its involvement in residential mortgage loan servicing and foreclosure processing. DJ30 -88.93 NASDAQ -29.15 SP500 -11.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 621/1.01 bln/1830 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 900/517 mln/2070

1:30 pm : Stocks have slid off of the neutral line in recent trade, but both the Dow and S&P 500 have paused at the session lows that they set this morning. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has descended to a new session low. For the second straight session the Nasdaq is underperforming its counterparts.DJ30 -36.06 NASDAQ -15.20 SP500 -4.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 790/912 mln/1655 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1125/470 mln/1825

1:00 pm : Stocks made some swings in the early going, but the first part of the afternoon has been spent at the flat line.

Premarket trade lacked direction as participants rested on the market's recent gains and digested a deluge of data. The first dose of data came in an early morning release of some disappointing PMI Manufacturing reports from France and Germany. The latest weekly initial jobless claims count was also posted ahead of the open; initial claims remained above 400,000, as had been expected.

The market opened in mixed fashion amid an apparent lack of leadership. That eventually left stocks to slip before bouncing on the back of the ISM Manufacturing Index for August. The Index eased down to 50.6 from 50.9 in July, but exceeded the 48.5 that had been broadly expected.

The stock market's move stalled as the S&P 500 approached the 1230 zone, which also acted as an area of resistance yesterday. Stocks gradually drifted lower from there and have been plodding alongside the neutral line ever since.

Retailers haven't attracted much support in the wake of the latest round of same-store sales results. More than half of the 20-plus names covered by Briefing.com posted results that exceeded expectations, but the group is collectively down about 0.7%.

Meanwhile, automakers are mixed amid the latest round of monthly sales results. Honda (HMC 32.95, +0.48) is up nicely, but GM (GM 23.15, -0.88) has succumbed to aggressive selling after it said August sales increased by 18%. DJ30 -25.24 NASDAQ -8.41 SP500 -3.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1060/815 mln/1345 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1420/425 mln/1520

12:30 pm : Listless action has left the major equity averages mired near the neutral line. The action, or lack thereof, has made for a boring follow up to that of recent sessions. Prior to today's crawl, stocks climbed four days in a row, or seven times in eight sessions.DJ30 -4.39 NASDAQ -1.42 SP500 -0.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1140/745 mln/1240 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1420/395 mln/1780

12:00 pm : Stocks continue to chop along the neutral line. While financials remain a drag on trade, energy stocks are offering support. Their divergence has left financials down 0.5% and energy up 0.4%. Tech, which is actually, the largest sector by market weight, is up only 0.1% at the moment.DJ30 +16.54 NASDAQ +5.60 SP500 +1.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1125/660 mln/1215 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1435/350 mln/1455

11:30 am : Each of the major equity averages recently slipped into the red to trade with a slight loss, but they have since made a move back toward the neutral line.

Although action in the broad market is lackluster, Macy's (M 26.79, +0.84) is up more than 3% following news that its same-store sales climbed by 5.0% during August. In contrast, Gap (GPS 16.19, -0.33) is down 2% in response to news that its same-store sales sank by 6.0% in August. Overall, retailers are down with modest losses, according to the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 49.41, -0.19). DJ30 -11.46 NASDAQ -1.81 SP500 -1.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1000/570 mln/1335 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1125/305 mln/1735

11:00 am : Stocks have drifted back to the neutral line after staging an impressive bounce on the back of a better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing Index. As was the case in the early going, the market's lackluster action is largely the result of a lack of leadership.

Energy stocks currently make up the only major sector to trade with a gain, although the sector is up a mere 0.2%. Oil and gas exploration and drilling names like Baker Hughes (BHI 61.52, +0.41) and Transocean (RIG 56.36, +0.34) are helping to prop up the group. Refiners like Valero (VLO 22.56, -0.16) have been a drag. DJ30 -5.64 NASDAQ -0.49 SP500 -1.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1270/458 mln/1012 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1533/245 mln/1275

10:35 am : Natural gas prices initially moved higher in the minutes following the release of weekly natural gas inventory data, which showed a build of 55 bcf in the face of the consensus call for a build of 60 bcf, but are now down markedly. More specifically, prices had been flat in the few minutes that preceded the report then swung to a 0.8% gain at $4.09 per MMBtu after its release. They have since slid to a 1.0% loss at $4.02 per MMbtu.

Crude oil prices have poked back into positive territory after slipping at the open of pit trade. The energy component was last quoted with a 0.2% gain at $89.00 per barrel.

As for precious metals, gold prices are down 0.5% to $1823 per ounce. Silver prices are down 0.8% to $41.45 per ounce. Both have been in the red for the past 90 minutes. DJ30 +6.43 NASDAQ +0.99 SP500 -1.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1415/322 mln/795 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1780/182 mln/985

10:00 am : Stocks have rebounded sharply after descending to a modest loss in the opening minutes of trade. The bounce comes on the back of some better-than-expected data.

The ISM Manufacturing Index for August came in at 50.6, which is down from the 50.9 that was posted in the prior month, but better than the 48.5 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Construction spending data for July was also just released. Overall spending reportedly fell 1.3%, which is a surprise since many had expected spending to be flat. DJ30 +72.88 NASDAQ +19.00 SP500 +8.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 930/93 mln/1140 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1245/66 mln/1390

09:45 am : The major equity averages are mixed in the opening minutes of trade. There isn't much leadership at this point.

Financials are an early source of weakness after providing leadership in the prior session. The sector is currently down 0.8% as bank stocks come under pressure. DJ30 +2.42 NASDAQ +1.19 SP500 -1.07

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.50. Stock futures now point to a mixed start for the first session of September. The lackluster follow-up to the near 6% monthly loss suffered during August. To be fair, though, stocks are coming off of a four-session streak of gains. Also, overseas markets have been mixed in the wake of an unimpressive batch of manufacturing data. Domestic manufacturing data will be posted at 10:00 AM ET. Participants have already digested news that the latest initial weekly jobless claims tally remained above 400,000, as had been expected, and a big batch of same-store sales, which generally proved better than expected.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.00. Stock futures have ticked up in recent trade. At the same time, pressure is abating among Europe's major bourses. Despite that, Germany's DAX is still down 1.0%. The action follows a disappointing Manufacturing PMI. In its final August reading, the country's PMI slipped to a near two-year low of 50.9 from the 52.0 posted in the preliminary report. The country's final reading of second quarter GDP showed 2.8% growth, unchanged from the preliminary report. Daimler is currently the worst performing issue in the bourse while a fractional gain has made BMW the only name presently out of the red. Deutsche Bank (DB) and Commerzbank are also weighing on action, although reports indicate that Deutsche Bank's CEO has rejected calls from the IMF to recapitalize banks. France's CAC is currently off 0.2% following news that its PMI Manufacturing reading for August sipped to 49.1 from 49.3 in the preliminary report. Credit Agricole and Pernod Ricard are in the worst shape; both are contending with losses of about 4%. Alcatel-Lucent (ALU), Electricite de France, and France Telecom have managed to put together enviable gains in the midst of broad weakness, though. Britain's FTSE recently pushed up to a 0.1% gain. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Barclays (BCS), and Lloyds Group (LYG) have staged heady gains and, in doing so, offset weakness in Xstrata, Glencore, and Intercontinental. BP Plc (BP) is also under pressure following news reports that the company's offices in Russia were raided. The August Manufacturing PMI reading for the United Kingdom came in at 49.0, which is down from the 49.4 that was reported for the prior month. As for the overall eurozone, the region's final Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.0, which is down from the 49.7 that was initially reported.

Overnight action in Asia saw Japan's Nikkei climb 1.2%. Japan reported that total vehicle sales during August fell by 25.5%, which is slightly less steep than the 27.6% drop that was suffered the month before. Komatsu Ltd., Japan Tobacco, and Casio Computer were primary leaders. Toyota (TM) and Honda (HMC) are expected to release their latest North America monthly sales results some time today. Hong Kong's Hang Seng put together a 0.3% gain. Li & Fung was a top performer there, but industrial metals players were pressured. China's Shanghai Composite closed 0.5% lower, despite strength among financials following strong earnings from China Merchants Bank. The country reported that its Manufacturing PMI for August inched up to 50.9 from 50.7 in the prior month.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.50. Stock futures haven't really reacted to the latest dose of data, which included initial jobless claims for the week ended August 27. Those claims totaled 409,000, which is on par with the 407,000 claims that had been commonly expected among economists polled by Briefing.com. Claims for the prior week were revised upward to 421,000, which has helped push up the four-week moving average to 410,250. Separately, second quarter unit labor costs were revised downward to reflect a 3.3% increase from the 6.2% increase that had been posted in the preliminary report. On average, economists surveyed by Briefing.com had called for a 2.4% increase. Still to come are the latest ISM Manufacturing Index and monthly construction spending figures at 10:00 AM ET.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.50. Stocks have advanced for four straight sessions, but participants are pushing back a bit this morning. The action comes as sellers resurface in Europe, where manufacturing data out of both France and Germany proved disappointing. Manufacturing data out of China also failed to inspire. Traders get a reading on domestic manufacturing with the ISM Manufacturing Index at 10:00 AM ET, which is also when monthly construction spending numbers are scheduled to arrive. Prior to that, weekly jobless claims and revised second quarter productivity and cost data are due at 8:30 AM ET. Monthly motor vehicle sales will be released intermittently today, but same-store retail sales are already hitting news wires. Most retailers have reported stronger-than-anticipated results.

06:44 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.00.

06:44 am : Nikkei...9060.80...+105.60...+1.20%. Hang Seng...20585.33...+50.50...+0.30%.

06:44 am : FTSE...5366.84...-27.70...-0.50%. DAX...5689.34...-95.50...-1.70%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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