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 Post subject: September 30th Friday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +2.70
PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 9:51 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +2.70 points or $270.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=1015.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=143&t=1197

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Fall to Biggest Quarterly Drop Since 2008

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its biggest quarterly drop since 2008, after reports from China and Germany fueled concerns the global economy is slowing.

Stocks: Worst Quarter Since Financial Crisis

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By Ben Rooney September 30, 2011: 4:54 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks ended a dismal quarter with heavy losses Friday as investors remain worried about the debt crisis in Europe and the outlook for global economic growth.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 240 points, or 2.1%, to close at 10,913. The S&P 500 (SPX) slid 30 points, or 2.5%, to 1,131. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) fell 65 points, or 2.6%, to 2,415.

The losses capped the biggest quarterly drop for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq since the fourth quarter of 2008. The S&P 500 lost 14% and the Nasdaq fell 13% over the last three months.

The Dow fell 12% in the quarter, marking its worst quarterly performance since the first quarter of 2009.

On Friday, Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) was the worst performing Dow stock. Shares of the aluminum producer sank 5% amid concerns about a slowdown in global manufacturing.

The banking sector was hit by worries the sovereign debt crisis in Europe could spill over into the financial system. Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) plunged over 10%. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500),and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) also fell sharply.

The few gainers were concentrated in defensive sectors such as consumer staples and health care. Merck (MRK, Fortune 500) and Walmart (WMT, Fortune 500) both rose modestly.

The debt crisis in Europe is "all that anybody cares about," said Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at brokerage firm BTIG. "The worst-case scenario is a disintegration of the European banking sector."

Concerns about government debt problems in Europe intensified in the third quarter. Investors are afraid that Greece could default on its debts, setting off a banking crisis similar to the one that occurred after Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008.

In addition, economic activity in the United States and around the world has slowed. The Federal Reserve and the International Monetary Fund both warned of increasing risks to the global economic recovery.

"It's been a very uncomfortable quarter for investors as news from Europe and now China has filtered into equity valuations," said Lawrence Creatura, a portfolio manager with Federated Clover Investment Advisors.

* How Was Your Sucktember?

Looking ahead, traders said the market could find some support next month as the quarterly corporate reporting period gets underway.

But a number of potential pitfalls are on the horizon, including a crucial impasse over additional bailout funds for Greece.

Given the uncertain outlook, trading will remain volatile and investors will continue to focus on events overseas, said Creatura.

"People are starved for information, and their hyper-sensitivity is on display when any snippet of information can cause 100-point swings in the market," he said.

Stocks went on a roller-coaster ride Thursday, as investors parsed through positive news in the U.S. and Europe.

Economy: Personal spending increased 0.2% in August, while incomes eased 0.1%, according to U.S. government statistics. The figures matched economists' expectations.

The Chicago PMI, a regional reading on manufacturing activity, climbed to 60.4 in September from 56.5 in August, signifying further expansion in the sector.

The University of Michigan's final reading on consumer sentiment in September was revised up to 59.4 from the preliminary reading of 57.8.

Companies: Trading in shares of Eastman Kodak (EK, Fortune 500) was halted following reports that the company could declare bankruptcy. The stock plunged 58% to 70 cents per share before a circuit breaker was triggered.

* Kodak: Death of an American icon?

Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) will begin charging a $5 monthly fee at the beginning of next year for customers who make debit card purchases.

World markets: European stocks fell after Eurostat, the European Union's statistics agency, released a report that showed inflation rose to 3% from 2.5% in August -- its highest level in three years.

The inflation data called into question a widely held assumption that the European Central Bank is planning to lower interest rates in October or November. The ECB will make its next policy statement Thursday.

* Euro stability fund is a mirage

Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) slipped 2%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany dropped 2.7% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) shed 2.1%.

This was a dismal quarter for the European markets. The FTSE is down 14.5% over the last three months. The CAC and the DAX are both down 26% for the quarter.

Asian markets ended lower. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) fell 0.3%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong tumbled 2.3% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) ended little changed.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained strength against the euro and the Japanese yen and the British pound.

Oil for November delivery fell $1.46 to $80.68 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery rose $14.50 to $1,631.90 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 1.93% from 2% late Thursday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : A weak performance on Friday resulted in another weekly loss for stocks -- their eighth in 10 weeks of trade. Such an extensive stretch of weakness has left the stock market to log a monthly loss of 7% and a quarterly loss of more than 14%.

Trade on Friday was spent entirely in negative territory. Participants turned to selling after watching markets overseas slide. Trade in Europe, which has influenced sentiment at home for weeks, saw Britian's FTSE fall 1.3%, France's CAC close 1.5% lower, and Germany's DAX drop 2.4% after a 3.0% jump in Eurozone CPI dampened hope for a rate cut by the European Central Bank. Overnight action in Asia saw Hong Kong's Hang Seng slide 2.7%, China's Shanghai Composite slip 0.3%, and Japan's Nikkei finish flat. China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI for September stayed below 50, the dividing line between contraction and expansion, for the third straight month, making some question the country's ability to sustain growth in the face of sluggish global conditions.

The inclination to sell trumped a couple of better-than-expected domestic reports. The Chicago PMI for August bested the Briefing.com consensus call of 54.0 by improving to 60.4 from 56.5 in July. The final September reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan was revised upward to 59.4 from the preliminary reading of 57.8. A reading of 57.5 had been expected.

Personal income and spending numbers for August were less impressive. Income declined by 0.1% while spending increased by 0.2%. Income failed to meet the 0.1% increase expected, on average, by economists polled by Briefing.com, but the increase in spending was exactly in line with what had been expected.

Without any kind of positive leadership, stocks were left to wrestle with sellers throughout the session. Even defensive-oriented stocks succumbed to aggressive selling pressure after they had limited losses in the first half of the day. As a result, all 10 major sectors tumbled to losses in excess of 1%.

Financials and materials stocks fell the hardest. They dropped 3.5% and 3.7%, respectively. They were also some of the poorest performers for all of September and all of the third quarter. During September, financials fell 11.5% while materials tumbled 16.6%. Over the course of the quarter, though, financials shed 23% and materials surrendered a full quarter, 25%, of their market cap.

With selling intensifying into the close, stocks effectively surrendered the gains that they had staged in previous sessions. That caused stocks to record a weekly loss of 0.4%. It all made for an appropriate conclusion to the third quarter, which goes down as the stock market's poorest quarter since a near 23% drop in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Although the action on Friday appeared appropriate in the context of the quarter, it contrasted with trade at the start of the week, when stocks climbed more than 2% on Monday and another 1% on Tuesday. Buying in both days was based largely on hope that officials in Europe are finally crafting a comprehensive plan that will help the region shore up its finances.

Momentum from those two sessions helped stocks open higher on Wednesday, but participants, starved for details of the rumored plan, began to push back against stocks and ultimately dropped the market for a 2% loss. Data that day didn't do anything to bolster the case buying either -- durable goods orders and orders less transportation both slipped 0.1% during August.

But by Thursday, approval from highly influential Germany to expand the European Financial Stability Facility helped stocks snap back. Upbeat data also played a pivotal part. The latest weekly initial jobless claims count dropped by 37,000 from the prior week to 391,000, which is the first time in more than a month that initial claims fell below 400,000. Moreover, the final reading for second quarter GDP showed growth of 1.3%, which not only marked an increase from the 1.0% rate posted in the prior reading, but it also bested the 1.2% growth rate that had been broadly expected. DJ30 -240.60 NASDAQ -65.36 NQ100 -2.7% R2K -2.8% SP400 -2.9% SP500 -28.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 586/2.03 bln/1992 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 607/1.32 bln/2456

3:30 pm : Pit trade concluded with oil prices down 3.6% to $79.20 per barrel. The energy component's weak close added to its quarterly loss, which totaled 17.0%. As for natural gas, its price tumbled 2.1% to $3.67 per MMBtu, which is 16.0% below where it began the third quarter.

Precious metals put on a mixed performance today, and the quarter for that matter. Specifically, gold prices eked out a 0.3% gain to close the week at $1622.30 per ounce. The yellow metal was a bright spot in the quarter, during which it advanced 7.9%. Meanwhile, silver prices slid 1.4% to $30.08 per ounce in today's pit trade, but booked a 13.5% loss for the quarter.

The CRB Commodity Index, a collective measure of commodities, closed today's trade with a 2.6% loss at a new 2011 low. The CRB logged a 12% loss for the third quarter. DJ30 -148.87 NASDAQ -42.13 SP500 -17.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 675/1.38 bln/1850 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 725/660 mln/2290

3:00 pm : Shares of Eastman Kodak (EK 0.68 -1.01) have been slashed in half this session. The stock's precipitous drop has come in response to rumors that the company may face bankruptcy. Reports have already confirmed that the company has hired legal counsel to advise it in strategic options.

As for the broad market, the S&P 500 has managed to make a modest move off of its session low, but it continues to grapple with aggressive selling pressure. Today's slide has the stock market on pace for a third quarter loss of 13.5%, which makes for the market's worst quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2008. DJ30 -153.37 NASDAQ -41.82 SP500 -17.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 680/1.25 bln/1820 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 760/595 mln/2250

2:30 pm : Stocks have rolled out of their afternoon trading range to set new session lows. The downturn has been broad based, but cyclical-related sectors materials (-3.0%), industrials (-2.9%) financials (-2.3%), and consumer discretionary (-2.2%) are feeling the brunt of the selling effort. In contrast, utilities (-0.3%), health care (-0.3%), and consumer staples (-0.4%), all defensive oriented, have managed to limit losses.DJ30 -153.71 NASDAQ -44.12 SP500 -19.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 695/1.12 bln/1795 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 790/525 mln/2210

2:00 pm : Any attempt by stocks to trim their losses has ultimately been stymied by sellers. As a result, the major equity averages remain mired in negative territory.

Amid such persistent pressure, though, Treasuries have been trading higher all session. Although the benchmark 10-year Note is off of its best level of the day, it continues to sport a gain of more than a half point. That has kept the Note's yeild comfortably below 2.00%. At the start of the third quarter the yield on the Note was narrowly above 3.10%. DJ30 -80.64 NASDAQ -29.16 SP500 -11.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 805/1.04 bln/1655 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 921/485 mln/2044

1:30 pm : Action has been choppy, but not exactly volatile. Share volume has been strong, but not exactly robust. Those themes seem to contrast with what would ordinarily be expected in the quarter's final trading day, when many investment managers are rebalancing portfolios and juggling their assets, frequently for dressing up their quarterly statements. To be fair, though, there is still plenty of time before the closing bell will toll.DJ30 -94.98 NASDAQ -30.31 SP500 -12.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 745/940 mln/1710 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 794/440 mln/2162

1:00 pm : Stocks have been mired in negative territory for the entire session. The performance makes for an appropriate end to a very weak third quarter.

The prior session ended with varied results as bulls battled sellers, but the pessimists stepped back in this morning. Since the expansion of the EFSF is generally being regarded as a given, many traders turned their attention to data from Europe and Asia. China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI contracted for the third consecutive month, although the official PMI won't be released until the weekend. A 3.0% spike in Eurozone CPI dampened expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank.

Domestic data featured bland personal income and spending numbers for August, but both the Chicago PMI and final September reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan proved better than expected. Inclined to sell, participants essentially shrugged off those reports.

Weakness was widespread this morning, but sellers have become more focused in their efforts as trade has progressed. Financials are among those that have been hit the hardest. The sector is currently down 2.0%, mostly because bank stocks are having such a hard time attracting support. Pressure against banking plays has the KBW Bank Index down 2.4%. The KBW has given up about a quarter of its market cap this quarter.

Defensive-oriented issues have done the best job of limiting their losses. As such, consumer staples are flat, health care stocks are up fractionally, and utilities are down only incrementally. For the quarter, consumer staples plays are down about 4%, health care stocks are down 9%, but utilities are actually up roughly 2%. For comparison, the S&P 500 is headed for a quarterly loss of about 13%, which stands as its worst quarterly performance in almost three years. DJ30 -90.21 NASDAQ -30.42 SP500 -12.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 820/885 mln/1620 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 880/405 mln/2065

12:30 pm : Financials have descended deeper into negative territory. As such, the sector now contends with a 2.0% loss. Despite that, the financial sector is still on track for a weekly gain of almost 3%. However, that feat is completely overshadowed by the sector's 22% loss for the third quarter.DJ30 -57.82 NASDAQ -22.80 SP500 -10.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 780/810 mln/1640 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 845/380 mln/2085

12:00 pm : The market's recent rebound effort has lost momentum, leaving stocks to retrace the move by drifting deeper into the red.

Stocks may be off of their session lows, but weakness remains relatively widespread. Of the major sectors, though, financials have fallen sharply out of favor. The sector is now down 1.7%, which makes it the worst performing bunch in the broad market. Within the financial sector, bank stocks are in especially weak shape. That has the KBW Bank Index down about 2%. DJ30 -41.93 NASDAQ -19.10 SP500 -8.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 970/695 mln/1420 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 965/330 mln/1920

11:30 am : Stocks are back at their rebound highs, but all three major equity averages are still in the red. As it did yesterday, the Dow has managed to push ahead of its counterparts. As a result, the Dow's loss is now only a fraction of what it was when stocks were at session lows. McDonald's (MCD 89.83, +1.05), Wal-Mart (WMT 52.36, +0.43), and Merck (MRK 33.20, +0.54) are leaders among blue chips.DJ30 -20.20 NASDAQ -12.65 SP500 -6.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 875/628 mln/1500 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 895/290 mln/1990

11:00 am : Recent efforts to pare losses have come under pressure. Sellers' renewed efforts haven't quite sent stocks back to session lows, though.

Amid the market's weakness, the dollar has been bid markedly higher. In turn, the Dollar Index is sporting a 0.9% gain, which has put it at a new weekly high. The dollar's advance comes as the euro extends its prior session slide so that it now trades with a 1.2% loss at $1.342, which is only incrementally higher than its weekly low. DJ30 -101.34 NASDAQ -33.87 SP500 -15.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 620/475 mln/1695 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 640/230 mln/2190

10:35 am : Commodities are seeing broad market weakness this morning with copper futures one of the worst performers in the space, now down 3.0% at $3.15/lb. In addition to copper, corn futures are seeing pressure following a negative USDA quarterly grain stocks report. Corn futures were down 4 cents overnight and just fell 36 cents (or 5.7%) at the open a few minutes ago and are now at $5.97.

In the energy markets, everything is in negative territory (WTI crude, Brent crude, nat gas, heating oil and RBOB). Crude oil futures lost steam in early morning trade and remained in a downtrend and fell as far as $80.04/barrel. Crude recently moved back above the $81 level and is currently down 1.4% at $81.01/barrel. Natural gas is near the unchanged line at $3.74 currently.

Gold and silver recently moved back into positive territory. Gold hit a new session low of $1611.30/oz before reversing earlier and is now up 0.5% at $1626.00/oz. Silver couldn't hold its gains and is now down 0.3% at $30.43/oz.
DJ30 -74.77 NASDAQ -27.28 SP500 -11.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 697/417 mln/1593 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 706/207 mln/2121

10:00 am : Stocks recently benefited from a modest bout of buying interest that followed a better-than-expected Chicago PMI reading, which improved in August to 60.4 from 56.5 in July. It had been expected to fall to 54.0 by economists polled by Briefing.com.

The final September reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan also proved pleasing. It was revised upward to 59.4 from the preliminary reading of 57.8. The Briefing.com consensus had called for a reading of 57.5.

Despite the positive nature of the data, stocks haven't been able to fully shake free from the hands of sellers. Instead, the major market averages have spent the first 30 minutes of trade chopping along in negative territory with sizable losses. DJ30 -124.80 NASDAQ -41.29 SP500 -17.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 40/48 mln/1860 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 315/42 mln/2005

09:45 am : Stocks are down sharply this morning. Their slump comes in response to broad-based selling.

Although all 10 major sectors are currently in negative territory, materials stocks are in the worst shape. As a group, they have already fallen to a 2.3% loss. Materials stocks are also among the poorest performers for the quarter -- in the past three months the sector has plummeted almost 24%, which is about double the drop of the broader market during that time.

Utilities are holding up relatively well amid this morning's selling effort. The sector is currently down about 0.2% this morning, but actually up almost 2.0% for the quarter. DJ30 -73.79 NASDAQ -31.97 SP500 -11.54

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -14.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -29.30. Stock futures suggest an opening loss of more than 1% for the cash market. Selling pressure comes in response to weakness abroad, where participants have had a negative reaction to data from both Asia and Europe. So far, domestic data has been limited to monthly personal income and spending numbers, which were unexciting. The inclination of participants to sell is keeping with the practices of the third quarter, which concludes today. As of the prior session's close, the stock market is headed for a 12% quarterly loss. That makes for the market's worst quarterly performance since it dropped more than 20% in the fourth quarter of 2008.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -14.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -29.50. Oil prices are down 2.2% to $80.35 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. The energy component is coming off of a 1% gain. As for natural gas, prices are down 0.6% to $3.73 per MMBtu. They already fell more than 1% in the prior session. Gold prices are down 0.2% to $1615 per ounce this morning. The yellow metal posted a fractional gain in the prior session. Meanwhile, silver prices are down 1.1% to $30.20 per ounce today. The precious metal concluded the prior session with a 1% gain.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -24.30. Stock futures haven't really had much of a reaction to the latest dose of data, mostly because there weren't any dramatic surprises to the numbers. Personal income for August declined by 0.1%, which contrasts with the Briefing.com consensus call for a 0.1% increase. The unexpected slip comes after income had increased by 0.3% in the prior month. However, personal spending increased by 0.2%, as had been broadly expected. Still, the pickup wasn't as strong as the 0.8% jump that was reported for the prior month. Core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices were up 0.1% in August. That's a softer increase than the 0.2% that had been generally expected. It's also softer than the 0.2% increase reported for the prior month.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.30. Stocks head into Friday with a weekly gain of about 2%, but that is expected to be challenged by sellers who have already dragged down stock futures in premarket trade. The weakness comes mostly in response to selling abroad, where traders have reacted to some disappointing data. Still, the selling pressure arguably makes for an appropriate conclusion to the third quarter, which has seen the stock market decline by about 12%. Stocks haven't suffered such a nasty quarterly loss since the fourth quarter of 2008. While premarket pressure is substantial, stocks could experience some swings as traders and investment managers make some end-of-quarter portfolio moves. Domestic data could also play a role in today's action. Personal income and spending numbers are due at the bottom of the hour, followed by Chicago PMI at 9:45 AM ET and the final reading on consumer sentiment for September from the University of Michigan at 9:55 AM ET.

06:52 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -12.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -26.00.

06:52 am : Nikkei...8700.29...-0.90...0.00. Hang Seng...17592.41...-418.70...-2.30%.

06:52 am : FTSE...5102.06...-94.80...-1.80%. DAX...5465.22...-174.40...-3.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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