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 Post subject: August 30th Tuesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +46.30
PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 7:22 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +46.30 points or $4630.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=93&t=984.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=142&t=1168

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Rise As Fed Says Policy Makers Wanted More Action

Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rose, rebounding from a 1.2 percent drop in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, after the Federal Reserve said some policy makers wanted to take more action to stimulate the economy during their meeting this month.

Stocks Eke Out Gains

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By Maureen Farrell August 30, 2011: 4:41 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Investors were more optimistic Tuesday afternoon after the Federal Reserve's minutes from its most recent meeting indicated that some Fed members favored more stimulus.

Stocks had a rough day, opening slightly lower, only to sink sharply following a weak consumer confidence report. But the knee jerk reaction was short lived, and stocks bounced back into positive territory before settling into a malaise for much of the day.

All indices closed the day in positive territory, but still remained down for the year. The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) moved up 20 points, or 0.2%, to 11,559.95.

Financial stocks remained under pressure, with Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) down between 1% to 3.5%.

The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 3 points, or 0.2% to 1212.92; while the Nasdaq (COMP) added 14 points, or 0.6% to 2576.11. Research in Motion (RIMM), Baidu (BIDU), and Netflix (NFLX) were among the biggest winners on the tech-heavy index.

Stocks got a bit of a late-day bounce from the release of the Federal Reserve minutes. The minutes revealed that some committee members advocated another round of Treasury purchases to jumpstart the economy, known as quantitative easing or QE3. Despite a low volume trading day, investors who had been sitting on the sidelines with cash opted to buy in after the minutes were released.

Still equity markets didn't make much headway as fears of another recession muted investors' optimism.

* Bank of America still not out of the woods

"Fear of a recession can become a self-fulfilling prophecy," said Joseph Tanious, vice president and market strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds. "Consumers are clearly experiencing a crisis of confidence, and this morning's numbers only reinforce that view."

Early Tuesday morning, investors were spooked by a report that showed consumer confidence sunk to its lowest level in more than two years, but the knee-jerk reaction quickly faded.

"It's not surprising that people are saying they're more worried about the economy now," says Kate Warne, chief market strategist at Edward Jones. "It's less certain that it translates into a dramatic change in behavior. Even when consumers become more cautious, they don't always spend less."

Still Tanious says that investors were able to shrug off the low confidence numbers because of a few bright spots in economic data including consumer spending numbers on Monday that were better than expected.

* Surprising six-figure salaries

Stocks have had a rough month. A downgrade by Standard & Poor's in early August acted as the catalyst for two weeks of wild swings as investors feared the U.S. would tip back into a recession. In fact, August is on track to be worst month for stocks since May 2010.

On Monday, U.S. stocks rallied following a trifecta of positive news: a Greek bank deal, a solid U.S. consumer spending report, and relief that Hurricane Irene caused less damage than expected.

Economy: Home prices rose 3.6% during the second quarter, according to the Case-Shiller 20-city home price index. That was the first quarterly increase in prices in a year.

But home prices are still down 5.9% from a year earlier. Economists were expecting a year-over-year decline of 4.7%.

Companies: Shares of Dollar General (DG, Fortune 500) ended the day up 6%, after the retailer beat second-quarter earnings and sales estimates. The retail company lifted its same-store sales guidance for the remainder of the year. During the second quarter, investing guru Warren Buffett added a $50.8 million stake in Dollar General.

* Video - Barnes and Noble's Nook bet pays off

Shares of Barnes & Noble (BKS, Fortune 500) closed teh day up 16% after the bookseller reported a quarterly loss and sales that fell short of expectations but investors appeared to focus on strong demand for the retailer's Nook tablet.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained ground against the euro and British pound, but fell versus the Japanese yen.

Oil for October delivery jumped $1.50, or 1.7% to $88.50 a barrel.

Gold for December delivery rose $41, or 2.3% to $1,832 an ounce.

* Pimco's bad bond bet

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 2.18% from 2.27% late Monday.

World markets: European stocks ended the day with mixed results. Britain's FTSE (UKX) 100 rose 4%, and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) added 0.2%, while the DAX (DAX) in Germany fell 0.5% .

Asian markets ended the session mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) fell 0.4%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong (HSI) climbed 1.7% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) rose 1.2%.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Selling in the final minutes caused stocks to settle short of their session highs, but the major equity averages still managed to hold on for another gain.

Stocks extended their early morning slide in response to an abysmal Consumer Confidence Index for August. The Index had been generally expected to ease to 52 from just above 59, but slumped to 44.5, which is the worst reading since April 2009. It is suspected that the worse-than-expected reading was the result of stock market volatility, slow job growth, and concerns about the pace of the overall economic recovery.

Although there isn't any empirical evidence that connects consumer confidence with actual spending, participants used the report as an excuse to sell stocks. That sent the broad equity market down to a loss of more than 1%, but it didn't take long for buyers to scale back in. The stock market's move off of its morning low was rather choppy, though.

Minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting failed to have any meaningful impact on trade. They didn't offer any clues for plans of further stimulus, although the members of the Committee agreed monetary policy couldn't completely address the various strains on the economy.

Despite a general lack of leadership, stocks were still able to work their way up to a modest gain. The effort was challenged shortly before the toll of the closing bell, but stocks the major equity averages managed to hold on for varied gains -- the Nasdaq again outperformed its counterparts with help from Internet-related plays.

This session's gain marked the stock market's fifth advance in six sessions. During that time the S&P 500 has advanced 8%. It is still down 6% for August, though. As for the Nasdaq, it is up 10% in six sessions, but down 6.5% for the month. Meanwhile, the Dow has advanced almost 7% in the past six sessions, but is down 4.8% month to date.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom +1.0%, Industrials +0.8%, Materials +0.8%, Health Care +0.4%, Consumer Discretionary +0.4%, Tech +0.3%, Energy +0.3%, Consumer Staples +0.2%
Unchanged: Utilities
Declining Sectors: Financials -0.7%DJ30 +20.70 NASDAQ +14.00 NQ100 +0.6% R2K +0.5% SP400 +0.4% SP500 +2.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1324/1.86 bln/1204 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1910/1.02 bln/1084

3:30 pm : Precious metals took their cue from commentary out of a couple of Fed presidents today, including Chicago's Charlie Evans who said that he favors strong accommodation at this point, and would favor more accommodation if needed. Later in the session Minnesota Fed President Narayana Kocherlakorta, one of 3 dissenters from the August 9 decision, said that if disinflationary pressures reappear, more accommodation may be appropriate. These comments, coupled with the release of the FOMC minutes, helped precious metals end higher on the day. Dec gold rallied for 2.1% to close at $1829.80 per ounce, while Sep silver gained 2% to finish at $41.40 per ounce.

It was a quiet session for Oct crude oil, which settled with gains of 1.9% at $88.90 per barrel. Similar to trade in gold, crude oil futures rallied in early trade, but spent the remainder of the day trading in a small range. They did manage to put in highs, at $89.21, heading into to the close and ended just shy of those levels. Sept natural gas ended up 2.1% to $3.91 per MMBtu.DJ30 +40.45 NASDAQ +16.48 SP500 +3.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1267/1.4 bln/1236 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1870/696.9 mln/1160

3:00 pm : A failure by stocks to push above their session highs has been met with some mild selling pressure. Despite that, the stock market is still sitting in positive territory with a minor gain. That's enough to keep stocks on pace for their third straight gain, or sixth advance in seven sessions.

Although the upward trend of trade for the past week has the S&P 500 up more than 7% in that time, August is still shaping up to be a very poor month for stocks. In fact, the S&P 500 is still down about 6% this month. DJ30 +35.76 NASDAQ +14.54 SP500 +2.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1200/1.27 bln/1280 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1725/600 mln/1225

2:30 pm : A flurry of buying has taken the stock market back near its session high. There really hasn't been any clear catalyst to account for the move.

Telecom continues to sport the strongest gain of any major sector. Telecom plays are up 1.4% as a group. Financials remain at the other end of the spectrum in relatively weak shape. The sector is presently down 0.6%. DJ30 +34.93 NASDAQ +15.47 SP500 +3.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 980/1.17 bln/1490 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1400/545 mln/1535

2:05 pm : Minutes from the August 9 meeting between Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members were just released. So far, stocks really haven't reacted to them.

According to the Minutes, all members felt that monetary policy could not completely address the various strains on the economy. Some members expressed the view that additional accommodation was warranted because they expected the unemployment rate to remain well above, and inflation to be at or below, levels consistent with the FOMC's mandate. DJ30 -27.06 NASDAQ -0.67 SP500 -4.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 905/1.04 bln/1555 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1257/487 mln/1680

1:30 pm : Stocks appear to have stabilized since suffering from a slip into negative territory, but the market still lacks direction amid generally listless action.

Today's lackluster action has also done little to induce participation, effectively dampening share volume. Share volume is already expected to underwhelm this week, given the tendency of traders to take vacation in the days ahead of the Labor Day holiday.DJ30 -32.58 NASDAQ -4.51 SP500 -4.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 925/945 mln/1525 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1255/445 mln/1665

1:00 pm : Stocks are back in the red with varied losses after a recent bounce into positive territory failed to take hold. Action remains generally listless.

Selling ahead of the open left stocks to start the session in negative territory. Pressure picked up with the release of the Consumer Confidence Index for August. It dropped somewhat dramatically to a two-year low of 44.5, likely because of the debt cieling debacle, market volatility earlier this month, and ongoing concerns about a sluggish recovery for the job market and broad economic conditions.

Despite the dismal Confidence reading, stocks were able to stage an impressive rebound that took the S&P 500 from a loss of more than 1% to a modest gain. An absence of leadership has caused stocks to retrace the move, however.

Financials, which were primary drivers of the prior session's bounce, have been a source of weakness all day. The sector's drop to a 1.3% loss comes as many move to take profits from insurers after their rally yesterday.

Telecom has been the only sector to sport a steady gain all session. The sector, which is one of the smallest by market weight, is currently sitting on a 0.7% gain.

Safe havens fell in the prior session, but underwhelming action among stocks has brought them back into favor. In turn, gold prices are up more than 2% to $1829 per ounce, the dollar is up 0.6% against a collection of competing currencies, and buying in Treasuries has the yield on the 10-year Note back below 2.20%.

Action this afternoon could shift with the release of minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting at 2:00 PM ET. DJ30 -39.89 NASDAQ -5.80 SP500 -6.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 935/855 mln/1470 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1355/410 mln/1550

12:30 pm : Stocks are easing back from their best levels of the day. The drift lower comes after the stock market failed to sustain a move past the prior session's high.

The dollar has traded with steady strength all day. It is currently up 0.6% against a basket of major foreign currencies. The sterling pound is especially weak; it has fallen 0.8% to $1.628. The euro isn't much better off. It was last quoted with a 0.7% loss at $1.442. DJ30 -3.90 NASDAQ +8.43 SP500 -0.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1040/785 mln/1355 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1540/375 mln/1360

12:00 pm : Stocks have moved to new session highs to give the S&P 500 and Dow modest gains. The Nasdaq is in even stronger shape, though. Internet-related plays like eBay (EBAY 30.87, +0.38), Amazon.com (AMZN 210.19, +3.66), and AOL (AOL 15.35, +0.25) have helped the Nasdaq outperform its counterparts for the second straight session.DJ30 +20.70 NASDAQ +15.97 SP500 +2.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1100/650 mln/1250 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1650/317 mln/1200

11:30 am : A sudden flurry of buying has taken the S&P 500 within close reach of the neutral line. The market's uptick has come on the back of a broad-based bid that has lifted consumer discretionary stocks (+0.1%), tech (+0.1%), and industrials (+0.3%) into positive territory. Meanwhile, materials stocks and telecom stocks have added to their gains so that both sectors are up 0.8%.

Financials are having a hard time fighting off selling pressure. As such, it is still down 0.7% for the day. That's less than half of what it had been down earlier, though.

Energy stocks are also grappling with selling pressure. The sector's 0.6% loss comes even though oil prices have rallied from an early loss to $88.80 per barrel for a gain of 1.8%. DJ30 -14.00 NASDAQ +3.70 SP500 -2.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 825/543 mln/1510 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1135/265 mln/1720

11:05 am : Stocks have worked their way back from the lows that were set in the wake of an abysmal Consumer Confidence Index earlier this morning, but the major equity averages have yet to break out of negative territory.

Financials continue to hamper overall action. The frequently influential sector is down 1.4%, which makes it the worst performing sector in the pack. Financials, as a group, have been hurt by weakness in shares of insurance plays, which are under pressure after they had staged outsized gains in the prior session. Their climb yesterday was due to a combination of broad market strength and a sense of relief that preliminary damages to the Northeast by Hurricane Irene weren't as bad as what had been feared. DJ30 -42.95 NASDAQ -5.09 SP500 -6.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 670/460 mln/1600 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 875/223 mln/1935

10:35 am : The dollar index continues to show gains this morning and remains near the 74 area. Energy and metals are higher, while most ag commodities are in the red.

Crude oil fell as low as $86.46/barrel earlier this morning, but erased morning losses after rallying following the open of pit trade. The energy component hit session highs of $88.26/barrel about 45 minutes ago and is currently 0.9% higher at $88.00/barrel. Natural gas futures have been on an uptrend for the last few hours and just hit new session highs of $3.88/MMBtu. Currently, nat gas is up 0.8% at $3.86/MMBtu.

Gold futures gained steam around 7:45am EST and rallied from around the $1795 area. Gold hit session highs of $1836.40/oz and is now up 2.2% at $1830.40/oz. Silver has been in positive territory all morning and is currently up 2.5% at $41.55/oz.DJ30 -65.70 NASDAQ -10.99 SP500 -8.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 688/398 mln/1572 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 887/197 mln/1908

10:05 am : Stocks have sold off in response to news that the Consumer Confidence Index for August came in at a two-year low of 44.5, which is not only down sharply from the 59.2 that was posted during the prior month, but it is far worse than the 52.0 reading that had been generally anticipated among economists polled by Briefing.com. The drop in consumer confidence is most likely the result of the volatility experienced by stocks in the first half of the month, as well as ongoing concerns about the pace of the economic recovery and the impact of sluggish growth on the job market.DJ30 -106.60 NASDAQ -27.22 SP500 -13.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 760/130 mln/1360 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1060/72 mln/1580

09:45 am : Stocks got a bit of a bounce off their opening lows, but the major equity averages remain in the red with moderate losses.

Early weakness is largely the result of a lack of leadership. Financials were drivers of the prior session's climb, but today the frequently influential sector has slid to a 0.7% loss, which is worse than what any other sector has experienced this morning.

Telecom stocks, which lack meaningful market weight as a group, are up nicely, however. The sector's 0.5% gain makes them this morning's best performers. DJ30 -37.16 NASDAQ -6.30 SP500 -4.83

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.80. Stock futures continue to suggest that the cash market will open with a marked loss. However, the push lower doesn't come as a complete surprise, especially since stocks have climbed so aggressively in recent sessions without any real pullback. As a result of the early weakness among equities, premarket participants are showing favor for the relative safety of gold, Treasuries, and the dollar. The action comes ahead of minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. Those minutes will be posted at 2:00 PM ET. Expect the financial media to comb them for hints about the willingness of voting members to implement new monetary policy tools and measures.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.30. Precious metals are outshining the rest of the commodity complex this morning. Specifically, gold prices are up 2.0% to $1828 per ounce while silver is up 2.2% to $41.45 per ounce. Oil prices were last quoted with a 0.4% loss at $86.90 per barrel while natural gas prices are trading with a 0.1% gain at $3.83 per MMBtu. Overall, the CRB Commodity Index is up a tepid 0.1%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -17.00. Germany's DAX is down 1.0% at the moment. The downturn has been the result of widespread weakness -- Deutsche Lufthansa is the only name in the 30-member bourse that has managed to muster a gain. RWE and E.On are in the worst shape; both are currently contending with losses of more than 3%. France's CAC has fallen to a 0.4% loss. Among the 40 components, Axa (AXA) and Accor are currently the only two names in positive territory. Britain's FTSE is outperforming, but its 1.9% gain is mostly because participants there are playing catch up after the FTSE was closed for holiday yesterday, when Europe's other major equity averages scored strong gains. Banks are the best performers as Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Lloyds Group (LYG), and Barclays (BCS) boast gains above 5%. Only a handful of names, including Vodafone (VOD) and Tesco Plc, are in negative territory.

Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng continued their upward climb with gains of 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively, in their latest round of trade. In the Nikkei, Aozora Bank was a primary leader for the second straight session, but Mizuho Financial (MFG) logged the worst performance by percentage lost (-2.6%) after it had outperformed alongside Aozora in the prior session. The Hang Seng was helped by banking plays China Construction Bank and Bank of China. The former's gain follows the decision by Bank of America (BAC) to divest 13 billion shares of the company, while the latter was helped by reports that Temasek increased its stake in the outfit. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite underperformed again. It closed the latest round of trade with a 0.4% loss as real estate plays suffered renewed selling pressure.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.50. The S&P 500 has ascended more than 7% during the course of the past five sessions, but this morning participants are pushing back a bit. In similar fashion, many of Europe's bourses have drifted lower after staging impressive gains in recent sessions. Traders are preparing for data and minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting -- the latest Case-Shiller Housing Price Index will be posted at 9:00 AM ET; the Consumer Confidence Index is due at 10:00 AM ET, and; FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET. Gold and Treasuries were out of favor yesterday, but the two safety plays are up this morning. Specifically, gold has rallied to a 1.7% gain at $1823 per ounce while buying in Treasuries has the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note down to about 2.22%. The dollar has also attracted buyers this morning; it was last quoted with a 0.7% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies.

06:51 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -8.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.50.

06:51 am : Nikkei...8953.90...+102.60...+1.20%. Hang Seng...20204.17...+339.10...+1.70%.

06:51 am : FTSE...5250.12...+120.20...+2.30%. DAX...5636.87...-33.20...-0.60%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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