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 Post subject: August 23rd Tuesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +20.10
PostPosted: Tue Aug 23, 2011 7:10 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +20.10 points or $2010.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=93&t=979.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=142&t=1168

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Gain on Optimism Before Jackson Hole

Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rallied, driving the Standard & Poor's 500 Index up from the cheapest valuations since 2009, as weaker-than-estimated economic data reinforced optimism the Federal Reserve will act to spur growth.

Stocks In Rally Mode

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By Ken Sweet, contributing writer August 23, 2011: 4:43 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks posted major advances on Tuesday, following a report from the FDIC that showed the number of failing banks shrank for the first time in nearly five years.

Stocks were also lifted by a surge in the price of oil, which rose more than 2% -- helping to boost the energy sector, most notably Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) and Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500).

Oil for October delivery gained $1.02, or 1.2%, to settle at $85.44 a barrel.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) advanced 322 points, or 3%, to close at 11,177. The S&P 500 (SPX) added 38 points, or 3.4%, to 1,162; and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) gained 101 points, or 4.3%, to 2,446.

Investors felt more comfortable taking on risk and exited their safe haven positions in gold and U.S. Treasuries. Gold was down more 3% after hitting a record high earlier in the day, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose to 2.13% from 2.09% on Monday.

"Investors are little more emboldened to re-enter the stocks since it looks like Europe has quieted somewhat," said Michael James, senior equity trader with Wedbush Morgan Securities.

Investors said Tuesday's rally should not be looked at as a pivotal change in the direction of the market, saying the concerns about a U.S. economic slowdown and a European debt crisis -- the catalysts for the original sell off more than a month ago - remain unresolved.

"We may be up 300 points today, but remember we're still down four weeks in a row," said Art Hogan, managing director at Lazard Capital Markets.

U.S. stocks rose modestly Monday, as investors grappled with an uncertain economic outlook ahead of a key speech by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke.

* Stocks may recover. But don't expect much.

Bernanke's speech will be given at the Kansas City Fed's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Friday morning.

At last year's meeting, the Fed chief prepared the market for QE2 -- a bond-buying program that is widely credited for supporting stocks earlier this year.

"It's possible we'll see the Fed pull a rabbit out of its hat again this year," Hogan added.

Bank stocks: Beaten-down Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) was under pressure once again, with shares falling 2%.

* Zombie banks are back

Financial stocks have been getting hammered over the past month on concerns that the U.S. economy may be slipping into a recession and that some banks may have to raise additional capital.

Bank of America has been the focus of a lot of investors' attention in particular. Its shares hit a new 52-week low earlier in the session before turning around.

"The fear, whether it's real or unsubstantiated, is that BofA will have to raise capital in the near future," James said.

But traders embraced a little bit of positive news out of the financial sector, after the FDIC said its list of problem banks got smaller for the first time since the financial crisis, falling by 23 institutions to 865.

Companies: Swiss bank UBS (UBS) announced plans to trim 3,500 jobs by the end of 2013 as part of cost-cutting measures. Shares rose about 5%.

Shares of Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) rose 5% after Reuters reported that the company's suppliers were building a cheaper version of the iPhone 4, citing unnamed sources. Reuters also said Apple is aiming to launch the iPhone 5 by the end of September.

Also tied to the Apple news, shares of Sprint (S, Fortune 500) rallied 10% on Tuesday on reports that Apple was going to bring an iPhone model to Sprint's PCS network.

Economy: The Commerce Department said new-home sales declined by 0.7% to an annual rate of 298,000 in July, marking the third straight month of declines. The figure was also slightly below forecasts.

Currencies: The dollar fell against the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound.

* Is Europe facing a credit crunch like 2008?

World markets: European stocks posted modest advances on Tuesday. Britain's FTSE (FTSE) 100 rose 0.7%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany added 1.1% and France's CAC (CAC) 40 climbed 1.1%.

Asian markets ended higher. The Shanghai Composite increased 1.5%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong jumped 2% and Japan's Nikkei rose 1.2%.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : The stock market slipped to the neutral line in the early going, but then climbed steadily to finish at a session high with a gain of more than 3%.

Buying interest ahead of the open was bolstered by the robust gains staged abroad, especially in Europe, where the action of the major bourses continues to be regarded as an indicator of confidence in the region's fundamental make-up and macro environment. That said, traders there responded positively to what was actually a relatively mixed batch of economic data, giving the EuroStoxx 50 a 1% gain.

Support at home faded in the first few minutes of trade, though. That left the S&P 500 to slip to the neutral line, but stocks were able to secure support there, just as they did in the prior session. The implied floor encouraged buyers to step back in.

Conviction among buyers seemed to increase once financials joined in the effort. The sector had been hampered by renewed selling pressure against diversified banks and financial services stocks, but even that group eventually garnered support. As a result, the financial sector settled with a gain of more than 3%.

A little past the midway point, stocks slipped amid knee-jerk selling that came in response to reports that government buildings were evacuated following an earthquake in the area. Once it was learned that there weren't any immediate damages of great consequence, stocks were able to resume their upward march, which continued into the close so that stocks settled more than 3% higher.

Energy stocks were the strongest performers overall. As a group they gained more than 4%, led by a mix of oil and gas services players and refiners that rebounded from the prior session's slip.

Names like Google (GOOG 518.82, +20.65) and Apple (AAPL 373.60, +17.16) also outperformed. Their strength helped the Nasdaq Composite edge out its counterparts.

Even before stocks had started their ascent, gold prices were on the retreat following a new all-time high in overnight action. The precious metal climbed as high as $1917.90 per ounce, but ultimately settled with a 1.4% loss at $1863.50 per ounce.

Treasuries didn't make much of a move lower until late in the day. Results from an auction of 2-year Notes indicated strong demand. Specifically, the auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.44, dollar demand of $120.4 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 31.6%. The prior auction produced a bid-to-cover of 3.14, dollar demand of $109.9 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 27.7%.

Advancing Sectors: Energy +4.6%, Tech +3.9%, Consumer Discretionary +3.8%, Industrials +3.5%, Materials +3.4%, Financials +3.2%, Health Care +3.2%, Telecom +2.6%, Consumer Staples +2.2%, Utilities +1.8%
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +322.11 NASDAQ +100.68 NQ100 +4.1% R2K +4.9% SP400 +4.1% SP500 +38.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2155/2.14 bln/458 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2587/1.24 bln/467

3:30 pm : The rally in equities helped Oct crude oil close higher by 1.2% to $85.44 per barrel today. Futures traded to their lowest levels, at $83.40, following the open of pit trade, but managed to rally off those lows to trade back in positive territory. They put in session highs, at $86.39, in mid-morning trade and finished about a point off those levels. Sept natural gas ended higher by 2.6% to $3.99 per MMBtu. A late rally in futures was spurred by news of an earthquake on the east coast.

After trading to a new all-time high, at $1917.90, in overnight trade, it was all down hill for Dec gold --which settled lower by 1.4% to $1863.50. The rally in equities pressured both gold and silver today. Gold futures have extended their sell-off in afterhours trade, notching fresh lows at $1833. Sept silver settled lower by 2% to $42.43 per ounce, and like gold it has extended its move lower in afterhours trade. DJ30 +284.50 NASDAQ +89.08 SP500 +33.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2128/1.7 bln/474 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2567/84.5 mln/502

3:00 pm : Stocks have extended their recent upturn so that the Dow and S&P 500 are now back near their best levels of the day. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is at a new session high. Large-cap tech stocks are helping the Nasdaq outperform its counterparts. Specifically, Google (GOOG 517.83, +19.66) and Apple (AAPL 369.50, +13.06) are primary leaders, but NVIDIA (NVDA 13.07, +1.13) is a top performer following an analyst upgrade.DJ30 +218.81 NASDAQ +76.13 SP500 +26.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2020/1.43 bln/538 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2438/700 mln/580

2:30 pm : The stock market isn't quite back to its session high, but it has managed to make its way back to a 2% gain after it had succumbed to knee-jerk selling that followed news of a strong earthquake in Virginia.

Exelon (EXC 41.91, +0.28) was among the harder hit names in the wake of the earthquake report, but the stock has started to reclaim gains. Given that the company owns one of the country's most expansive nuclear fleets, it was quickly punished by traders who were quick to recall the extensive damages suffered by Japan's nuclear facilities following massive earthquakes in the country earlier this year. DJ30 +199.20 NASDAQ +66.74 SP500 +22.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2030/1.18 bln/520 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2465/565 mln/535

2:00 pm : Stocks recently slipped suddenly to an afternoon low, but have managed to stabilize. The dip came in reaction to news reports that an earthquake with a magnitude of about 6 was experienced near Virginia. Subsequent reports indicate that both the Capitol Building and Pentagon were evacuated.

Financials have had their gains more than halved during the course of the past hour. The sector had been up well in excess of 2% at its session high, but it has since pulled back so that its gain now stands at little more than 1%. Goldman Sachs (GS 104.04, -2.47) has become a heavy burden on the group; its drop from a strong gain to a 2% loss has put the stock at a new 52-week low. DJ30 +188.08 NASDAQ +61.41 SP500 +20.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2030/1.15 bln/520 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2464/560 mln/535

1:30 pm : Stocks remain near session highs. Treasuries are still generally flat following results from an auction of 2-year Notes. The auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.44, dollar demand of $120.4 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 31.6%. For comparison, the prior auction produced a bid-to-cover of 3.14, dollar demand of $109.9 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 27.7%. An average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.16, dollar demand of $110.5 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 30.5%.DJ30 +202.76 NASDAQ +64.99 SP500 +23.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2025/1.08 bln/500 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2500/530 mln/500

1:00 pm : Weakness among financial stocks initially undermined early trade, but renewed strength in the sector has since helped the broad market ascend to a gain of more than 2%.

Most overseas markets moved higher last night and this morning. Traders there had a decidedly positive response to what was actually a generally mixed batch of economic data from China, Germany, France, and the broader Eurozone. The upbeat tone helped provide a positive backdrop to premarket trade.

However, support began to wane with the approach of the open. Buying interest continued to fade into the first few minutes of trade, causing the S&P 500 to slip to the flat line. As was the case in the prior session, though, the broad market found support there.

The stock market's subsequent bounce was generally broad based, but for the second straight session tech stocks have been primary leaders. As a group, tech stocks are up 2.9% today. Their strength has also helped the Nasdaq outperform its counterparts.

Even though tech is the largest by market weight, the sector's strength was partly offset by relative weakness among financials, which lagged the rest of the market for the first few hours. Diversified banks and financial services providers were the key culprits behind the sector's lackluster morning, but the group has managed to rebound. For instance, Bank of America (BAC 6.36, -0.06) shares are still in the red, but they've climbed about 6% from the two-year low that they set this morning. The overall financial sector is now up 2.5%.

Renewed support for financials has helped take the broad market another leg higher, showing that even though the stock market may be able to advance in the face of a relatively weak financial sector, the sector is key to more meaningful broad-market gains. DJ30 +239.85 NASDAQ +71.36 SP500 +27.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2010/953 mln/490 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2450/470 mln/520

12:35 pm : The S&P 500 was recently backed down from the 1150 line, but it is slowly moving back toward that mark. Strength remains broad based.

Despite the stock market's run to a 2% gain, Treasuries really haven't had to battle too much selling. Instead, the benchmark 10-year Note is only down a single tick. Meanwhile, the 2-year Note is essentially unchanged ahead of results from an auction of 2-year Notes at the top of the hour. DJ30 +201.93 NASDAQ +60.73 SP500 +23.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1975/880 mln/505 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2400/430 mln/545

12:00 pm : Stocks have rallied back from a recent slip. The effort has taken the broader market up to a gain of more than 2%. Buying action has been broad based, but newfound strength among financials has been a primary impetus for the move.

Financial stocks had been lagging all session as participants applied pressure to diversified banks and financial services providers, but the overall financial sector has since climbed to a 2.0% gain. The move comes as the likes of JPMorgan Chase (JPM 34.27, +0.86) and Citigroup (C 26.90, +0.84) rally to heady gains. DJ30 +214.45 NASDAQ +60.14 SP500 +25.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1800/717 mln/625 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2243/358 mln/660

11:30 am : Shares of Bank of America (BAC 6.18, -0.24) are down sharply again this session. Sellers actually sent the stock down to a new two-year low at the $6 mark, but it was able to secure some near-term support there. Concern about the bank's capital levels, exposure to relatively risky markets, and general ability to sustain a broad downturn in economic activity have dropped the stock almost 40% in only one month. Shares of BAC now trade at less than half of their second quarter Book Value and at a price-to-cash flow ratio (trailing twelve months) of about 0.7x, which is about half of its five-year average.DJ30 +135.59 NASDAQ +38.55 SP500 +15.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1730/590 mln/675 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2117/300 mln/750

11:00 am : The S&P 500 recently pushed up to the 1140 line, which is about five points below its prior session high, but was unable to extend the move. It has since drifted downward, but continues to sport a gain in excess of 1%.

Tech stocks, which collectively represent the largest sector by market weight, have been providing leadership today. The sector's 1.5% advance comes on top of its 0.7% gain in the prior session. The tech sector's strength today and yesterday comes after the group had been sold aggressively in recent weeks for fear that fundamentals would weaken in the context of a global economic slowdown. DJ30 +109.66 NASDAQ +34.02 SP500 +12.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1823/475 mln/550 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2252/247 mln/592

10:35 am : The dollar index remains in negative territory, which has provided some strength to the CRB Commodity Index. Energy markets are mixed, while precious metals are lower.

Crude oil lost steam almost two hours ago and fell $2 to new session lows of $83.40/barrel. Crude has recovered above the $84 level and moved back into positive territory and is now up 0.1% at $84.53/barrel. Natural gas has been in positive territory all morning and just hit new session highs of $3.96/MMBtu and is currently up 1.7% at $3.95/MMBtu.

Gold and silver have been trading with modest losses this morning. In recent trade, silver pushed off of new session lows of $42.60/oz and momentarily moved into the black. However, it's currently down 0.2% at $43.25/oz. Gold is down 0.6% at $1880.40/oz.DJ30 +130.33 NASDAQ +38.90 SP500 +14.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1761/406 mln/570 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2201/213 mln/619

10:05 am : Stocks recently worked their way up to a strong gain, but the effort has gained momentum in the wake of the latest data.

New home sales for July hit an annualized rate of 298,000, which is a slower pace than the rate of 310,000 that had been broadly anticipated among economists polled by Briefing.com.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey fell to -10.0 from -1.0 in the prior month. The reading would ordinarily attract little interest, but in the wake of last week's appalling Philadelphia Fed Survey many investors are taking a closer look at regional activity to assess broader economic activity. DJ30 +105.43 NASDAQ +31.37 SP500 +9.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1115/94 mln/960 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1210/66 mln/1370

09:45 am : A slip at the open pared the stock market's initial gain. Action is now choppy.

As was the case in the prior session, financials are a source of weakness. The sector is currently off by 0.2%, which may not be much, but it makes for the poorest performance of any group in the early going.

Telecom stocks are sporting some of the strongest gains. The sector is up 0.7% as it adds to its prior session advance. Telecom stocks collectively climbed 0.8% yesterday. They were the best performing bunch. DJ30 +44.73 NASDAQ +13.52 SP500 +3.34

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.70. Stock futures have drifted off of their morning highs, but they continue to point toward a solid start for the session. Support has come in the wake of strong buying abroad, where many have responded positively to the latest dose of data, even though the batch from Europe was really rather mixed. Domestic data are limited to a new home sales report at 10:00 AM ET. Also on the docket are results from an auction of 2-year Notes at 1:00 PM ET. Gold remains a point of focus for market participants. The precious metal approached $1920 per ounce in overnight trade to set a new record high, but it has since retreated to $1870 per ounce for a 1.2% loss.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.00. Gold prices approached $1920 per ounce in overnight trade for a new record high, but the yellow metal has since retreated to $1877 per ounce, which makes for a 0.8% loss. As for silver, the precious metal is down 0.7% to $43.00 per ounce after it had set a new multi-month high above $44.00 per ounce in the prior session. Oil prices are up solidly again today. The energy component is currently being priced at $85.30 per ounce for a 1.0% gain. Meanwhile, natural gas prices have rebounded 0.7% from their prior session slide to trade at $3.92 per MMBtu.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.50. Stock futures have eased back in recent action. Europe's bourses have also drifted lower, but are still sporting solid gains in their second session of the week. Among the more popular market averages, Germany's DAX has advanced to a 0.9% gain following news that the country's Manufacturing PMI for August went unchanged at 52.0. Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey for August slid to -37.6 from -15.1 in the prior month. Deutsche Telekom and Volkswagen are top performers among German issues. France's CAC has climbed to a 1.3% gain. The country's preliminary Manufacturing PMI for August eased down to 49.3 from 50.5 in July. Accor, Alcatel-Lucent (ALU), and Vivendi are currently leaders. Britain's FTSE is up 1.1% amid leadership from a handful of financial names, like Lloyds Group (LYG), Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), and Barclays (BCS). Standard Chartered is a laggard, however. As for broader Eurozone data, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for August eased down to 49.7 from 50.4 in July. The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment reading fell to -40.0 from -7.0 in July.

Overnight trade in Asia took Japan's Nikkei to a 1.2% gain. Tokyo Electric Power was the poorest performer fo the day, based on percentage lost. In contrast, Mitsumi Electric was a top performer. Natural resource plays, steel stocks in particular, also showed strength. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rebounded from recent selling to settle with a 2.0% gain. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed trade with a 1.5% gain. The country's HSBC Manufacturing PMI for inched up to 49.8 from 49.3.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +21.70. Stocks started the prior session with a gain of about 2%, but fading strength left the broad market to finish flat. Despite the underwhelming finish, stocks have attracted strong buying interest again this morning. As was the case yesterday, the premarket bid has been partly inspired by a strong bounce by major overseas averages, which have already logged or are on pace for gains in excess of 1%. Buying abroad follows some solid data out of China, Germany, and the broad Eurozone. Gold is taking a breather after it cleared $1900 per ounce to set a new record in electronic trade. The yellow metal is currently down about 0.6% to $1881 per ounce. The dollar is also down this morning. It was last quoted with a 0.6% loss against a basket of major foreign currencies. Earnings announcements continue to dwindle and today's calendar of events is relatively sparse. Data are limited to monthly new home sales numbers at 10:00 AM ET. Results from an auction of $35 billion in 2-year Notes will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. Treasuries are currently under modest pressure.

06:53 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +17.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +27.50.

06:53 am : Nikkei...8733.01...+104.90...+1.20%. Hang Seng...19875.53...+388.70...+2.00%.

06:53 am : FTSE...5156.86...+61.60...+1.20%. DAX...5572.06...+98.30...+1.80%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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