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 Post subject: August 22nd Monday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +23.70
PostPosted: Tue Aug 23, 2011 6:43 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +23.70 points or $2370.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=93&t=977.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=142&t=1168

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Most U.S. Stocks Drop as Goldman, BofA Drive Banks Lower

Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. Most U.S. stocks fell after Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s decline in the last 15 minutes of trading wiped out the day's second Standard & Poor's 500 Index rally, overshadowing gains by technology shares.

Stocks End Higher After A Bumpy Ride

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By Ben Rooney August 22, 2011: 5:03 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks rose modestly Monday as investors grappled with an uncertain economic outlook ahead of a key speech by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke.

The advance came on a day with no major economic reports or major corporate developments. As a result, stocks traded in a wide range as investors anticipated events later in the week.

But the gains were a welcome change of pace after the extreme volatility of the last few weeks. Investors have been rattled by a spate of gloomy economic news and signs the debt crisis in Europe is not going away anytime soon.

"The market is in the process of testing for a bottom," said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 37 points, or 0.3%, to 10,854. The S&P 500 (SPX) ended little changed at 1,124. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) edged up 3 points, or 0.1%, to 2,345.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) was the strongest performer on the Dow, with shares rising over 3.5%.HP's stock plunged 20% on Friday amid concerns about the company's turnaround plan.

Shares of big financial institutions were among the biggest decliners. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) sank 7%, near its 52-week low, and JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500) slid 2.3%.

* Is Europe facing a credit crunch?

McCain said investors remain concerned about the debt problems in Europe, where policymakers have yet to propose a long-term solution. But he said business and consumer confidence in the United States may not be a weak as many investors had feared.

Investors are also looking ahead to Friday, when Bernanke will give his keynote speech at the Kansas City Fed's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

At last year's annual meeting, the Fed chief prepared the market for QE2, a bond-buying program that is widely credited for supporting stocks earlier this year.

Now, investors are eager to hear what Bernanke has to say about the flagging U.S. economy. But there are questions about how far the Fed can go to stimulate growth, with trillions of dollars on its balance sheet and interest rates expected to remain low for the next two years.

* Video - Lowe's pops on stock buyback

"There's always something they can do," said Art Hogan, a managing director at Lazard Capital Markets. "QE is one thing, but there are other weapons in the war chest," he said.

He said Bernanke's statement will probably not be as "ambitious" as it was last year, though the chairman may hint at more modest proposals, such as lowering excess reserve requirements for banks under its purview.

Meanwhile, shares of oil companies Exxon (XOM, Fortune 500) and Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) were in focus as rebel forces swept the Libyan capital of Tripoli, poised to topple Moammar Gadhafi's 42-year rule following six months of civil war. (CNN: Libya on the brink)

On Friday, U.S. stocks capped a difficult week, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest four-week drop since March 2009. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell between 4% and 6% last week.

* Stocks may recover. But don't expect much.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar slipped against the euro and the Japanese yen. But it edged up versus the British pound.

Oil for October delivery gained $1.84 to $84.10 a barrel. Meanwhile, Brent crude, the European benchmark, fell $1.10, or almost 1% to $107.52 a barrel, amid hopes that Libyan oil production may soon resume.

Gold futures for December delivery rose $35 to $1,887.80 an ounce. The precious metal rose above a record $1,900 an ounce in electronic trading later Monday.

* Video - Libya heats up oil markets

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 2.09% from 2.07% late Monday.

World markets: European stocks closed off session highs. Britain's FTSE (FTSE) 100 rose 1%, France's CAC (CAC) 40 gained 1.2%, But the DAX (DAX) in Germany eased 0.1%.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite lost 0.7%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong gained 0.5%, and Japan's Nikkei shed 1%.

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Market Update

4:20 pm : Buying was strong and broad this morning, but it took little time before the effort was challenged. Support at the flat line ultimately helped prevent a broad market loss, though.

Given that the stock market has fallen in each of the past four weeks for a cumulative loss of about 16%, early participants bid stocks higher with the notion that they are likely due for a bounce, especially since the tone of trade in Europe had improved so much in the region's first session of the new week. As of last week's close, the EuroStoxx 50 had fallen more than 15% during August to a new two-year low, but it bounced back to a 1% gain today.

Europe's major bourses actually gave up some of their gains, though. That drift off of session highs provided an excuse to some domestic participants to capitalize on the opening pop by U.S. markets. The S&P 500 was up about 2% at the open, but steadily surrendered all of that until it came in contact with the flat line. On a few occasions participants provided support to stocks near the neutral line, but none of that ever provided stocks with a floor for a sustainable rebound.

Financials hampered the broad market all session. Along with the rest of the market, the sector had been up about 2% in the first few minutes of trade, but it was ultimately beaten down to a 1.3% loss. The sector's weakness was largely rooted in losses among bank stocks, especially Bank of America (BAC 6.42, -0.55), which continues to wrestle with investor concerns about capital levels and exposure to relatively risky markets. Goldman Sachs (GS 106.51, -5.25) was clipped aggressively late in trade when it was reported that the investment bank's chief executive hired a lawyer.

Technology stocks offered some support. The sector, which is the largest by market weight, ended the day with a 0.7% gain. That was only exceeded by telecom stocks, which advanced 0.8% as a group.

The market's struggle to sustain any kind of a gain bolstered the case to continue buying gold. The precious metal closed pit trade with a 2.1% gain at $1891.90 per ounce, but afterward it extended its move above $1900 per ounce for a fresh record high.

Oil prices were also pushed higher. The energy component closed pit trade with a 2.3% gain at $84.12 per barrel. In the backdrop of the action, rebels entered the Libyan capital city, leaving traders to wonder just how long it will take before the country's oil output returns to full capacity.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom +0.8%, Tech +0.7%, Industrials +0.4%, Consumer Discretionary +0.3%, Consumer Staples +0.3%, Health Care +0.2%
Unchanged: Materials
Declining Sectors: Utilities -0.1%, Energy -0.6%, Financials -1.3%DJ30 +37.00 NASDAQ +3.54 NQ100 +0.3% R2K -0.1% SP400 +0.1% SP500 +0.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1137/1.95 bln/1457 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1254/1.19 bln/1749

3:30 pm : General strength within the commodity complex took the CRB Commodity Index up 0.7% today.

Among the better performers, gold prices climbed more than 2% to trade within $1 of $1900 per ounce in this afternoon. The move took the precious metal to a new record high before it closed pit trade with a 2.1% gain at $1891.90 per ounce.

Silver was also a strong performer. It settled with a 2.5% gain at $43.47 per ounce, but had actually cleared $44 per ounce in early morning trade.

Oil prices pushed as high as $84.80 per barrel in the final minutes of pit trade, but ultimately settled at $84.12 per barrel with a 2.3% gain.

In contrast to the other widely-watched commodities, natural gas succumbed to selling pressure. As such, the energy component settled with a 1.3% loss at $3.89 per MMBtu. DJ30 +80.52 NASDAQ +11.58 SP500 +5.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1300/1.55 bln/1295 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1470/793 mln/1545

3:00 pm : Mid-session support at the neutral line prompted the S&P 500 to bounce back to a 1% gain, but that move lost momentum and left stocks to drift lower during afternoon trade. As a result, the broad market is now back at the flat line, retesting the levels that already offered intraday support.

As has been the case all session, the broad market has been hampered by a weak financial sector, which has descended to a 0.6% loss. Still, that's not as steep as the 1% loss that the sector faced earlier today. General weakness among financial stocks, both today and in recent weeks, has the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF 12.06, -0.07) down to a two-year low. Tech stocks, collectively the heaviest bunch in the broader market, continue to try to offset the financial sector's weakness; the Technology SPDR ETF (XLK 22.67, +0.15) is up a solid 0.7% today, but down about 15% from its summer high in July. DJ30 +52.30 NASDAQ +2.80 SP500 +1.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1315/1.42 bln/1275 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1535/730 mln/1485

2:30 pm : Trade remains choppy this afternoon. Many participants are curious whether stocks will make more than a half-hearted attempt to reclaim their gains, or if they will break down and resume their negative trend.DJ30 +69.28 NASDAQ +7.45 SP500 +4.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1350/1.30 bln/1225 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1595/665 mln/1400

2:00 pm : Stocks are struggling to find direction. They completely surrendered an early gain of about 2% to trade at the neutral line around noon ET, but then rebounded to a 1% gain before turning returning to the backslide in recent action.

Tech, which is the largest sector by market weight, had been providing some leadership in the face of the financial sector's weakness today. However, tech stocks have since slipped so that their gain is now a bit less than 1%. Despite that, they are still among today's top performers. The sector's relative strength comes in the wake of selling pressure during the past few weeks that has been rooted in concerns about tech-related spending amid concerns for a downturn in macro activity. DJ30 +76.66 NASDAQ +11.31 SP500 +5.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1325/1.18 bln/1230 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1575/602 mln/1414

1:30 pm : Even though the stock market has rebounded to a gain of about 1%, the financial sector has struggled to follow it. Financials did managed to poke back into positive territory recently, but they have since slipped back to the flat line. The sector continues to be hampered by bank stocks, especially diversified banks and financial services stocks. Weakness among banks comes as some question just how fundamentally sound the institutions are and just how well they could sustain any kind of double-dip recession.DJ30 +109.24 NASDAQ +20.07 SP500 +9.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1550/1.08 bln/1010 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1790/551 mln/1180

1:00 pm : Stocks sprinted out to early gains of almost 2%, but surrendered all of that before bouncing in recent trade.

Partly encouraged by the strong, broad bounces staged by Europe's bourses this morning, domestic traders pushed back into stocks after watching them suffer their fourth straight weekly loss. The effort stalled, though, as the S&P 500 failed to push beyond the 1145 zone.

After it encountered resistance, the broad market was steadily led lower by the financial sector, which had started the session with a gain of about 2%, but descended all the way to a loss of 1%. Bank of America (BAC 6.65, -0.32) has been the heaviest drag on the sector as participants continue to place bets against the stock.

Financials have since worked their way back to a 0.4% gain. The sector's upturn has come only after the broad market was able to find support near the neutral line. Although the market's recent bounce has been solid, gains among the major equity averages are still only about half of what they were when stocks were at session highs.

Tech stocks have done the best job of maintaining strength. The sector's 1.4% gain has been helped by Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 24.60, +1.00), which has been deemed by some to be possible takeover target. The stock has also been helped by an analyst upgrade.

Amid ongoing volatility, gold has continued to climb. The stock's run to almost $1900 per ounce in overnight trade made for a new record high. The yellow metal is currently up 1.9% to $1888 per ounce. DJ30 +109.21 NASDAQ +23.54 SP500 +9.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1170/970 mln/1355 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1260/495 mln/1690

12:30 pm : The major equity averages have made a modest move up from their session lows, but the effort has yet to gain much traction.

Meanwhile, the dollar is up to a narrow gain against a collection of competing currencies. It had been down markedly against that basket earlier today.

Despite the dollar's advance, gold prices have reclaimed earlier gains. In turn, the yellow metal is back up to $1890 per ounce, sporting a 2.0% gain. DJ30 +57.44 NASDAQ +9.69 SP500 +2.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1192/863 mln/1324 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1320/440 mln/1620

12:00 pm : The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have slipped to slight losses, but the Dow has yet to follow the pair into the red. Instead, the blue chip index is clinging to a narrow gain. The stock market's descent continues to be driven by financial stocks, which are now collectively down 1.0% after they were up about 2.0% in the opening minutes of the session.

Just as domestic markets pulled back from their morning highs, Europe's bourses also gave back a big chunk of their gains. Specifically, France's CAC had its gain more than halved to finish its trading day with a 1.2% gain. Germany's DAX had been up well in excess of 1% at its best level of the day, but ended trade with a 0.1% loss. Britain's FTSE finished the day with a 1.0% gain after it had worked its way more than 2% higher during the day. DJ30 +21.91 NASDAQ -3.44 SP500 -0.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1125/734 mln/1360 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1335/380 mln/1580

11:30 am : Stocks have extended their descent from opening highs. The downward drift hasn't really been the result of any negative headline or catalyst. Rather, the stock market's inability to extend a strong move in the face of early resistance has prompted many participants to pare positions. Such action reflects the jittery mood among market participants following four straight weekly losses, which culminated in a drop of about 16% for the S&P 500.DJ30 +89.23 NASDAQ +14.98 SP500 +7.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1540/609 mln/920 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1860/315 mln/1040

11:00 am : The major equity averages have surrendered about half of the gains that they had achieved out of the gates. The downward chop comes after the S&P 500 encountered resistance near the 1145 line in the opening minutes of the session.

Financials, a frequent driver of broad market action, have been steadily falling out of favor. The sector is currently up just 0.3% after it had sported a gain of about 2% only minutes after the toll of the opening bell. Bank of America (BAC 6.66, -0.30) has been the heaviest drag on the financial sector. The stock's weakness has spread to other diversified financial services providers like JPMorgan (JPM 34.23, -0.12), which has slipped to a modest loss. DJ30 +92.29 NASDAQ +23.26 SP500 +8.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1790/455 mln/650 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2190/235 mln/680

10:30 am : Dec gold futures, which are currently higher by 1.3% to $1876.50 per ounce, traded to a new all-time high at $1898.60 in overnight trade. Sept silver futures, which are up 2.4% to $43.44 per ounce, put in fresh ~4 month highs at $44.09. Both metals are trading to the upside on continued concerns about the economy, as well as speculation that more quantitative easing could be announced by the Fed Chairman at a symposium at Jackson Hole later this week. Both metals pulled back from those highs following the open of pit trade, but have since retraced some of that sell-off.

Reports that Libyan rebels have take over the city of Tripoli are garnering attention in the energy markets today. Oct WTI crude oil, currently higher by 1.5% to $83.55 per barrel, saw a modest pullback in overnight trade, but quickly recouped those losses to trade into positive territory. Brent crude oil futures, which are currently lower by 1.5% to ~$107 per barrel, are pulling back and helping narrow the WTI-Brent spread on those reports. Sept natural gas is currently lower by 1.9% to $3.87 per MMBtu.DJ30 +140.05 NASDAQ +38.11 SP500 +12.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1884/394.7 mln/550 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2337/206.5 mln/571

10:00 am : The energy sector had spiked to an early gain of more than 2%, but it has since pulled back to trade with a 1.3% gain. The drift lower comes despite an uptick in oil prices, which are now above $84 per barrel with a 2.0% gain.

Refiners like Marathon Petroleum (MPC 33.25, -1.74) and Tesoro (TSO 18.92, -0.24) are undermining the energy sector as some speculate that the resumption of oil production in Libya could ultimately put pressure on gasoline prices. Meanwhile, integrated outfit Marathon Oil (MRO 25.75, +0.58) is a leader among energy plays following the decision by analysts at Oppenheimer to upgrade the stock. DJ30 +151.13 NASDAQ +35.15 SP500 +14.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2090/104 mln/250 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2610/74 mln/190

09:45 am : Although they have eased off of their opening highs, the major equity averages are sporting impressive gains this morning. The effort has been broad based in that all 10 major sectors are up with gains in excess of 1%.

Consumer discretionary stocks and tech stocks were recently tied for the best performers as both groups climbed to 2% gains. Among consumer discretionary issues, media plays CBS (CBS 22.80, +0.76) and Viacom (VIA.B 42.31, +1.44) are leading. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 24.53, +0.93) is a top performer among tech issues following speculation that the company could be a takeover target. DJ30 +173.46 NASDAQ +44.05 SP500 +18.54

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +21.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +44.30. Renewed strength among Europe's major market averages has helped inspire domestic traders to do some buying. As such, the stock market is expected to open with a sharp, broad-based gain. Gold and silver have both shared in the strength, as has crude oil. Aside from the buying effort abroad, there really haven't been any cues for trade this morning; the economic calendar is essentially empty and there is only a dearth of companies slated to announce quarterly results.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +22.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +45.20. Europe's major bourses have begun the new week with a big bounce. Their strength has helped the EuroStoxx 50 ascend to a gain of more than 2%. Germany's DAX is up 1.6%, despite weakness in automakers BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen. Deutsche Bank has also been out of favor, but Commerzbank has attracted buying interest. In France, the CAC has climbed 2.7% amid leadership from GDF Suez, Total (TOT), and Sanofi SA. Only a handful of names, Renault, Natixis, and Michelin, are mired in the red. Britain's FTSE has fought its way to a 2.3% gain. Health care issues GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and AstraZeneca (AZN) are top performers there, but banks like Lloyds Group (LYG), Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Barclays (BCS), and Standard Chartered are lagging.

Overnight action in Asia left Japan's Nikkei to log a 1% loss. Tokyo Electric Power and Kansai Electric Power were the two top performers, but Yaskawa Electric logged a sharp loss. Pioneer Corp and Mazda Motor were also in weak condition. Hong Kong's Hang Seng managed to gain 0.5% as heavyweight global banking giant HSBC (HBC) showed leadership. Property plays encountered pressure, though. Meanwhile, mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed Monday with a 0.7% loss.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +21.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +43.20. Gold prices are currently up 0.7% to $1865 per ounce after they came within only a couple of dollars of $1900 per ounce to set a new record high in early-morning electronic trade. One year ago the precious metal was a few dollars shy of $1230 per ounce. As for silver, the precious metal moved up to a multi-month high above $44 per ounce this morning, but it now trades at $42.82 per ounce for a 0.9% gain. In the energy complex, crude oil futures have yet to open pit trade, but the component is currently quoted with a 1.5% gain at $83.65 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent oil prices were last quoted with a loss of about 1.2% at $107.30 per barrel. The spread between Brent and WTI has narrowed in the wake of news that Libyan rebels have entered their country's capital in an effort to usurp control. Natural gas prices are down 0.9% to $3.90 per MMBtu. Overall, though, action in the commodity complex has the CRB Commodity Index up a healthy 0.5%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +16.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +36.20. Following four consecutive weekly losses, which culminated in a drop of about 16% for the S&P 500, stocks are getting some relief this morning. What's more, the supportive bid has been strong, such that the broad market is expected to open with a gain of more than 1%. Premarket buying interest has been accompanied by big gains in Europe, although overnight action in Asia was mixed. Stocks aren't the only assets benefiting from buying interest, however. In fact, gold prices flirted with $1900 per ounce for a new record high in early morning action. Gold has since pulled back to $1867 per ounce for a 0.8% gain. Oil prices are up nicely, too. The energy component was last quoted with a 1.3% gain at $83.50 per barrel. As an aside, the spread between Brent and WTI crude oil has narrowed following the move by rebels into Libya's capital. The earnings calendar is void of high quality names today. The economic calendar is also empty, but that hasn't stopped all kinds of speculation about what Fed Chairman Bernanke might say later this week in a press conference from Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

06:47 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +12.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +28.50.

06:47 am : Nikkei...8628.13...-91.10...-1.00%. Hang Seng...19486.87...+87.00...+0.50%.

06:47 am : FTSE...5124.00...+83.20...+1.70%. DAX...5498.77...+18.80...+0.30%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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