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 Post subject: August 17th Weds 2011 Emini TF (No Trades Personal Day Off)
PostPosted: Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:08 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Quote:
No trades today due to personal reasons...spending a day with my kids doing fun activities at the Granby Zoo.

Trade Performance for Today: +0.00 points or $0 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=93&t=973.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=142&t=1168

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Fall Amid Dell Drop, Fed Officials' Comments

Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. Most U.S. stocks declined, wiping out an earlier advance, as Dell Inc. forecast weaker sales and two Federal Reserve officials expressed concern about the amount of stimulus being applied to the economy.

Stocks Battle Back To End Mixed

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081711-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks ended a thinly traded session mixed Wednesday as investors weighed the latest corporate results against global economic and debt concerns.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 4 points, or less than 0.1%, to close at 11,410. The S&P 500 (SPX) added 1 point to 1,193. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) fell 12 points to 2,511.

Stocks opened higher following upbeat quarterly results from Target. But the gains faded later in the day and investors gravitated toward more defensive stocks that offer rich dividends.

American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) and Coca Cola (KO, Fortune 500) led gainers on the Dow. Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500) and AT&T (T, Fortune 500) were also strong.

The broader market was held back by weakness in shares of big technology companies. Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) plunged 10% after the computer maker issued a disappointing sales outlook late Tuesday. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) tumbled over 4%, while Cisco (CSCO, Fortune 500) and Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) both lost about 1%.

"Technology is not cooperating," said David Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams. He said a strong euro, which can hurt the profits of U.S. companies that do business in Europe, was behind the weakness in the tech sector.

Overall, traders remain wary given the uncertain outlook for the U.S. economy and the challenges facing European leaders as they struggle to resolve the festering debt crisis hanging over the euro zone.

U.S. stocks fell Tuesday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy spoke about Europe's ongoing debt troubles, but offered little in the way of action.

Concerns about the U.S. and Europe were behind the extreme volatility that rocked stock markets around the world last week. But trading has been more subdued this week with many shell-shocked investors moving to the sidelines or taking their summer vacation.

On Wednesday, only about 500 million shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Thin trading volumes can often lead to choppy trading on Wall Street.

"It's a combination of people being exhausted from last week, and the fact that this is traditionally the lowest volume period of the year," said Jason Weisberg, vice president of Seaport Securities

Traders were also bracing for inflation data due early Thursday, which is expected to show that U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2% in July.

The so-called core Consumer Price Index, which excludes energy and food price inflation, is expected to be up 1.7% in July over the last 12 months.

The Federal Reserve's comfort zone is for a core inflation rate of between 1% and 2% a year. The central bank has pledged to hold interest rates low for the next two years, but investors are concerned that inflation could prevent the Fed from providing additional monetary stimulus.

"People are very nervous about that [CPI report] because it's been creeping up and it could tie the Fed's hands," said Rovelli.

* Video - Obama: Jobs ready to be made

Companies: Target (TGT, Fortune 500) stock gained 2.3% after the discount retailer posted earnings ahead of forecast and delivered an outlook for the current quarter and year that were slightly above consensus estimates.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) reported quarterly earnings and sales that beat analysts' expectations. But the stock took a hit after company executives sounded cautious in a conference call with analysts.

Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) shares fell more 10%. Late Tuesday, the No. 2 PC seller cut its sales growth forecast for the remainder of fiscal 2012 due to "a more uncertain demand environment." Dell said it expects sales to rise been 1% and 5%, down from the previous range of growth between 5% and 9%.

Shares of No. 1 PC maker Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) -- which reports earnings results Thursday -- were also under pressure Wednesday, falling over 4%.

Economy: The Labor Department's Producer Price Index, which measures wholesale inflation, rose 0.2% in July.

Economists were expecting July PPI to come in flat, after being down 0.4% in June.

Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, jumped 0.4% last month -- slightly more than expected. The core index also rose 0.4% in June.

World markets: European stocks closed mixed. Britain's FTSE (FTSE) 100 fell 0.5% and Germany's DAX (DAX)lost 0.8%. France's CAC (CAC) 40 added 0.7%

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite lost 0.3% and Japan's Nikkei fell 0.6%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong added 0.4%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro and Japanese yen and the British pound.

Oil for September delivery gained $1.15 to $87.80 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery rose $1.90 to $1,795.70 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 2.18%.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : The stock market surrendered an early gain of more than 1% to end the day with only an incremental gain. Tech stocks acted as a particularly heavy drag, which led the Nasdaq to suffer a sizable loss.

Although action among the major foreign averages overnight and this morning was rather unimpressive, stocks climbed to an early gain of more than 1%, which was enough to offset the prior session's loss. Such positive posture provided stocks with an opportunity to resume the three-day, 6% climb that was interrupted yesterday. However, the failure to extend its early move made traders question the market's legs. That prompted some participants to pare their positions.

Tech stocks were sold most aggressively. That left the sector to log a 0.9% loss. Dell (DELL 14.20, -1.60) was an especially heavy drag on the space. The company's downside guidance cast a pall over its upside earnings surprise. Pessimism about the company's near-term prospects lends credence to concerns that some analysts have about tech spending amid a slowdown in macro activity. Such a notion imbued the rest of the tech space and, as a result, undercut the tech-rich Nasdaq.

Deere & Co. (DE 74.26, -0.90) reported better-than-expected bottom line results of its own. The company also increased its earnings forecast to exceed what Wall Street had projected, but that didn't stop the stock from succumbing to selling pressure.

Teen apparel retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 64.87 -6.15) also slumped, even though it posted an upside earnings surprise of its own. Target (TGT 50.55 +1.18) separated itself from the pack following its better-than-expected earnings announcement and increased earnings forecast. Despite the divergence, general weakness in the retail space left the group to slide more than 1%, based on the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 46.68, -0.55).

The stock market's inability to preserve early gains led many participants to move into telecom and utilities issues, which boast relatively stable businesses and rich dividend yields. The two sectors advanced 1.6% and 0.8%, respectively.

The dollar didn't attract any favor from safety seekers, though. It actually fell to a 0.4% loss versus a basket of major foreign currencies after the Swiss National Bank stated that its franc is overvalued, but offered no proposal to peg it to a currency like the euro.

With stocks still trying to settle into a clear path following last week's wild swings, many investors have moved to the sidelines. In turn, trading volume on the NYSE today totaled less than 1 billion shares.

Data didn't do anything to encourage trade. The only item on the economic calendar was a Producer Price Index that increased by 0.2% during July. Core prices increased by 0.4%. The consensus call among economists polled by Brieifng.com had sought no change in overall producer prices and a 0.2% increase in core producer prices.

Advancing Sectors: Health Care +0.1%, Materials +0.3%, Energy +0.5%, Financials +0.6%, Consumer Staples +0.8%, Utilities +0.8%, Telecom +1.6%
Declining Sectors: Consumer Discretionary -0.3%, Industrials -0.4%, Tech -0.9%DJ30 +4.28 NASDAQ -11.97 NQ100 -0.6% R2K -0.1% SP400 -0.5% SP500 +1.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1189/1.91 bln/1358 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1827/973 mln/1232

3:30 pm : Metals: It was a choppy session for gold and silver futures, which finished higher by 0.5% to $1793.80 per ounce and up 1.2% to $40.36 per ounce respectively. Both metals traded back toward the flat line in midmorning trade, but managed to retrace those sell-offs to finish with modest gains on the day. Weakness in the dollar aided the gains in precious metals.

Dec crude oil finished higher by 1.1% to $87.56 per barrel. Futures traded as high as $89 heading into this morning's inventory data. The data showed a build of 4.2 mln barrels vs expectations for a modest draw down, and that caused futures to pull back from those highs. Crude was able to stem its pullback around the $87.50, where it ended on the day. Sept natural gas finished higher by 0.3% to $3.94 per MMBtu. DJ30 -5.52 NASDAQ -15.33 SP500 -0.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1135/1.6 bln/1417 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1815/689.2 mln/1236

3:00 pm : The pace of trade has slowed significantly this session. As such, not even 600 million shares have traded hands on the NYSE so far today. With only an hour left before the toll of the closing bell, total share volume on the Big Board may not even break 1 billion. While that tally may actually be more than what was averaged regularly this spring and earlier this summer, it is half of what was logged throughout last week.

The decline in share volume likely reflects an interest among investors in waiting on the sideline until the stock market's direction becomes clearer, especially in the wake of last week's wild swings. Although, stocks haven't made the same dramatic moves this week, action remains rather volatile. For instance, stocks dropped sharply to a 2% intraday loss before a rebound halved that loss the prior session. Today, the stock market rolled over from an early gain of more than 1% before trying to bounce back in afternoon action. DJ30 -20.08 NASDAQ -20.10 SP500 -1.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1025/1.38 bln/1500 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1500/580 mln/1475

2:30 pm : Stocks began to work their way up from session lows, but the push has encountered resistance. For the S&P 500 specifically, it was rebuffed at the flat line. The inability of the benchmark Index to turn positive has also caused its counterparts to stall.DJ30 -26.18 NASDAQ -1.88 SP500 -21.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1030/1.30 bln/1490 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1555/545 mln/1400

2:00 pm : Stocks are slowly drifting deeper into negative territory. They now trade only narrowly above session lows.

Action this afternoon comes in stark contrast to what was exhibited this morning, when more than 90% of the names in the S&P 500 had advanced to give the stock market a gain of more than 1%. Although it may now be a moot point, the move had more than offset the prior session's loss. DJ30 -34.93 NASDAQ -2.83 SP500 -25.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 940/1.21 bln/1565 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1373/505 mln/1600

1:30 pm : Trade has turned choppy since the stock market entered negative territory. That has made it difficult for stocks to stabilize. In turn, the major equity averages are gradually grinding lower so that they now sit at their worst levels of the day.

Telecom and utilities continue to do an impressive job of fighting off sellers. The two sectors are up 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively, as investors show a preference for the stable business models and relatively rich dividend yields offered by the traditional safe havens. DJ30 -33.68 NASDAQ -19.75 SP500 -2.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1000/1.10 bln/1480 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1520/450 mln/1420

1:00 pm : Stocks worked their way up to a gain of more than 1% this morning, but buying interest began to dry up as the S&P 500 approached the 1208 area. The loss of support there left stocks to roll over, such that the major averages to reside in the red.

The stock market suffered a 1% loss yesterday, but a positive tone this morning helped stocks rebound. The effort completely offset the prior session's loss, but an inability to extend the move prompted some participants to pare their positions. The subsequent slip first paused when the S&P 500 touched the 1200 line then again at the neutral line, but follow through selling has stocks near session lows with varied losses.

The retreat risks an extension of yesterday's slide, but readers should remember that the potential for back-to-back losses comes only after stocks climbed for a cumulative gain of more than 6% during a three-day relief rally. Now, many market participants speculate whether the necessary fundamentals are in place for stocks to resume their rally, or if the path of least resistance is downward.

Tech has been the heaviest drag on today's trade. The sector, which constitutes the greatest market weight in the broad market, is currently down 1.1%. Dell (DELL 14.23, -1.57) has been dogged following a quarterly report, which featured a pessimistic outlook that has imbued the rest of the space.

Traders have also reacted negatively the latest announcements from Deere & Co. (DE 74.28, -0.88) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 64.81, -6.21), both of which offered upside earnings surprises. Target (TGT 50.48, +1.11) has garnered support in the wake of its latest report and forecast, however.

While selling among stocks has helped Treasuries tick higher, gold prices remain near $1790 per ounce with only a marginal gain. The dollar hasn't benefited from any real flight to safety either. In fact, the greenback has trailed a collection of competing currencies all session. Its weakness comes after the Swiss National Bank stated that its franc is overvalued, but offered no proposal to peg it to a currency like the euro. DJ30 -40.34 NASDAQ -21.85 SP500 -2.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1100/975 mln/1363 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1670/399 mln/1250

12:30 pm : After a pause at the flat line, both the S&P 500 and the Dow have dipped into negative territory. The pair has managed to limit losses, however.

Tech stocks continue to lead the move lower. The sector has slumped to a loss of 1.1%, which makes it today's worst performing group.

Consumer discretionary stocks and industrials make up the only other sectors that have fallen to losses. They are down 0.6% and 0.4%. Consumer discretionary stocks have been hurt by apparel retailers following a negative reaction to the latest quarterly report from Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 65.57, -5.45). Deere & Co. (DE 74.40, -0.76) has been a primary drag on the industrial space, despite the company's upside earnings surprise and improved earnings outlook. DJ30 -10.51 NASDAQ -15.98 SP500 -1.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1220/745 mln/1220 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1880/305 mln/1030

12:00 pm : Sellers have taken both the S&P 500 and the Dow down to the flat line, where they have paused in response to a bit of support. The Nasdaq is now down with a rather steep loss, though.

Seling hasn't come as a result of any real headline or clear catalyst. Instead, the effort has simply been something that gained momentum after early buying interest fizzled out and stocks struggled to extend the advance. The action suggests that the stock market's near-term path of least resistance may be downward, especially as some participants consider whether or not the fundamentals are in place for the stock market to build on its recent three-session relief rally, which fueled a cumulative gain of more than 6%. DJ30 -0.23 NASDAQ +0.48 SP500 -16.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1220/745 mln/1215 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1880/305 mln/1030

11:30 am : Stocks have extended their recent downturn after the 1200 line proved untenable as a source of intraday support. With stocks slideing to session lows, the Nasdaq actually slid into negative territory for a moment, although it is now at the neutral line.

Amid the stock market's recent retreat, telecom stocks and utilities stocks have managed to hold up relatively well. The two sectors, both defensive in nature, are up 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively. Tech continues to trade lower; it was last quoted with a 0.6% loss. Dell (DELL 14.39, -1.40) remains the heaviest drag on the tech sector following personal computer, software, and peripherals product maker's latest quarterly report. DJ30 +38.37 NASDAQ +0.29 SP500 +5.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1610/600 mln/780 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2357/245 mln/550

11:05 am : Stocks have been paring early gains so that the S&P 500 is now back near the 1200 line, which appears to be offering some support. The broad market is also getting help from the energy sector and financial sector, both of which are still up in excess of 1%. While the energy sector's climb marks an extension from the prior session, financial's advance marks a rebound from the near 2% tumble that it suffered yesterday.DJ30 +70.16 NASDAQ +5.20 SP500 +8.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1550/530 mln/812 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2275/210 mln/600

10:35 am : Crude oil futures have traded steadily higher throughout the morning, aided by yesterday afternoon's API data, which showed that gasoline stocks fell ~5.4 mln barrels the prior week. Following this morning's DOE inventory data, which showed a build of 4.2 mln vs expectations of a draw of 0.5 mln, crude oil futures are higher by 1.9% to $88.29 per barrel. Sept natural gas is currently higher by 0.6% to $3.95 per MMBtu after recouping overnight losses.

Precious metals are trading around their best levels of the session in mid-morning trade. Dec gold, which is currently higher by % 0.5 to $1794.70 per ounce, is climbing for a third consecutive session aided by weakness in the dollar and concerns about inflation. Sept silver, currently up 1.9% to $40.59 per ounce, is the beneficiary of the same. Both metals are currently trading below their best levels of the session. DJ30 +95.89 NASDAQ +18.39 SP500 +13.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 571/425.3 mln/1995 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 771/175.5 mln/2296

10:00 am : Broad-based buying interest has helped stocks extend their gains. More than 90% of the names in the S&P 500 are in positive territory as a result. Tech, which represents the largest sector by market weight, continues to trail, but it is now in positive territory with an incremental gain.DJ30 +93.85 NASDAQ +26.18 SP500 +13.92

09:45 am : Stocks are pushing higher in the opening minutes of trade. The effort has been broad based, but tech has been a notable laggard.

Tech stocks are collectively stuck at the neutral line. What's more, that's only after the sector had initially slipped to a slight loss. The sector's relative weakness comes amid a disappointing outlook from Dell (DELL 14.82, -0.98). The company's dour outlook reflects the concerns that some analysts have about spending in the tech sector amid a slowdown in macro activity. DJ30 -76.97 NASDAQ -31.75 SP500 -11.73

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.20. Stock futures point to a solid start for today's trade. The underlying bid comes even though many of the major overseas markets have put together mixed performances. Data has been underwhelming. It featured a sharper-than-expected pickup in producer prices during July. There hasn't been a very positive response to corporate news either. Despite earnings that exceeded expectations, Dell (DELL), Deere & Co. (DE), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) have all been hit with aggressive selling ahead of the open. Target (TGT), which complemented its upside earnings surprise with upside guidance, has managed to attract strong premarket buying interest, though. In the backdrop of this morning's action, the Dollar Index is down 0.6% to a three-week low as the Swiss franc surges. The franc's climb comes as participants consider that no comments were made about pegging the currency, even though the Swiss National Bank believes that the franc is overvalued. Meanwhile, gold prices are trading with only a modest gain near $1790 per ounce, but oil prices are up 1.8% to $88.25 per barrel ahead of weekly inventory numbers at 10:30 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.20. The CRB Commodity Index is up 0.8%, even though its more widely watched components are somewhat mixed this morning. Specifically, crude oil prices are up 1.9% to $88.25 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Weekly inventory numbers will be released at 10:30 AM ET. Natural gas prices are down 0.6% to $3.91 per MMBtu. As for precious metals, gold is being priced at $1786 per ounce, essentially unchanged, while silver prices are up 0.6% to $40.07 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.30. Stock futures have eased back a bit in the wake of the latest producer price data. Overall producer prices increased by 0.2% during July. That came as a bit of a surprise since the consensus among economists polled by Brieifng.com had called for no change. The month before, prices had actually fallen 0.4%. As for core prices, they spiked 0.4%, which exceeds the 0.2% increase that had been broadly anticipated after a 0.4% increase in the prior month.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.50. Stocks pared losses in the prior session, but still finished with a 1% loss. The tone has improved this morning, such that stock futures currently sport a modest lead over fair value. Meanwhile, trade in Europe has become relatively mixed. Participants there are responding to comments made yesterday afternoon by German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy, who proposed a tax on financial transactions and a common government for the eurozone. Also at play there is news that the Swiss National Bank stated that its Swiss franc is massively overvalued, but it is still up sharply in the absence of comments about pegging the currency. The dollar is currently down 1.4% to 0.784 francs per dollar. The latest batch of quarterly announcements has been generally positive. Among the more meaningful announcements, Deere (DE), Dell (DELL), Target (TGT), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) all announced earnings that exceeded what had been widely expected among Wall Street analysts. The latest producer price data are due at the bottom of the hour. Weekly oil inventory numbers are also on today's calendar; they are due at 10:30 AM ET.

06:53 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.00.

06:53 am : Nikkei...9057.26...-50.20...-0.60%. Hang Seng...20289.03...+77.00...+0.40%.

06:53 am : FTSE...5308.64...-49.00...-0.90%. DAX...5923.97...-70.90...-1.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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