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 Post subject: August 11th Thursday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +44.40
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2011 10:27 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +44.40 points or $4440.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=93&t=966.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=142&t=1168

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Rally on Jobless Claims, Corporate Earnings

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rallied, reversing yesterday's drop for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as a decline in jobless claims and better-than-estimated corporate earnings tempered concern Europe's debt crisis is worsening.

Dow Surges 423 points

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By Hibah Yousuf and Charles Riley August 11, 2011: 4:48 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Rebound! Stock markets continued their schizophrenic week Thursday as all three indexes surged on positive earnings and labor market news.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) jumped 423 points, or 3.9%, to close at 11,143.

The S&P 500 (SPX) added 51 points, or 4.6%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) rose 111 points to close 4.7% higher.

On Monday the Dow sank 635 points. On Tuesday it rallied 430 points. On Wednesday it plunged 520 points.

Optimism returned on Thursday -- but even with the Dow's spike, the index remains lower for the week.

Thursday's rally was driven by a report showing jobless claims fell to a four-month low, and by Cisco Systems' better-than-expected guidance for the current quarter. Shares of Cisco (CSCO, Fortune 500) jumped 16%, making the stock a top performer in all three major indexes.

A 18% rise in shares of News Corp. (NWSA, Fortune 500) also propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. On Wednesday, News Corp. beat earnings and sales expectations despite recent phone-hacking allegations.

"Investors are looking for any signs that the United States will be able to avert a double-dip recession," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

Investors may also be coming back into the market since the steep drops recently have pushed stocks near record-low valuations, said Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at National Securities.

Stocks also got a boost after news reports sparked speculation that France and Italy might place a ban on short-selling. In addition, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Thursday they were calling another emergency meeting to discuss the crisis.

Fears that France could be stripped of its AAA credit rating, in the aftermath of Standard & Poor's downgrade on the U.S., have been mounting and pressuring global markets. Investors have also been concerned about the solvency of French bank Societe Generale, or SocGen.

The relief over Europe's banking sector helped U.S. bank shares recover from the previous session's slide. Shares of Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) gained more than 6%, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) rose more than 6% and Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) shares increased by 10%.

* Video - Charting the market madness, by hand!

World markets: The positive developments in Europe helped the region's stocks end higher. Britain's FTSE (FTSE) 100 rose 3.1%, Germany's DAX (DAX) added 3.3% and France's CAC (CAC) 40 gained 2.9%.

Asian markets ended mostly lower, but the losses were modest. Japan's Nikkei (N225) slipped 0.6% after falling more than 2% at the open. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HSI) index dropped nearly 1%, while the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) rallied 1.3%.

Economy: A report from the Labor Department showed that weekly jobless claims fell to 395,000 last week, down 7,000 from the prior week.

The reading was better than the 409,000 claims economists were expecting.

U.S. trade deficit grew to $53.1 billion in June, from $50.8 billion in May. The gap was wider than the $48 billion expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

Companies: Shares of AOL (AOL) soared almost 12%, after its board approved a plan to buy back $250 million in stock over the next year.

* Gold breaks $1,800 level

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro, the Japanese yen and British pound.

Gold futures for December delivery fell $32.80 to $1,751.50 an ounce, after setting an intraday record high of $1,817.60 an ounce.

Oil for September delivery rose $2.83 to settle at $85.72 a barrel.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 2.33% from 2.14% late Wednesday

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Market Update

4:30 pm : The S&P 500 had sported a gain of more than 5% only minutes before the toll of the closing bell, but some late selling pressure caused it to settle off of its session high. As a result, the stock market couldn't quite surpass what was achieved this past Tuesday, when the stock market swung 6% from its session low to its session high to score its best single-session gain since a 7% surge in March 2009.

The late flurry of selling came as some participants, fearful that ongoing volatility could send stocks sharply lower tomorrow, opted to capitalize on the bounce by liquidating their positions. After all, today's climb was really just a relief rally, rather than a surge driven by the improvement of fiscal and financial conditions among the eurozone countries and their banking institutions.

Participants did get some positive data, though. Initial jobless claims for the week ended August 6 totaled 395,000, which is down from the 402,000 claims filed in the prior week and less than the tally of 409,000 that had been widely anticipated. The latest tally marks the first time since early April that the initial claims count fell below 400,000. Still, traders remain mindful that more than one modest downtick in weekly jobless claims is needed to ramp up the economic recovery.

Nonetheless, stocks settled sharply higher, giving bargain hunters what they wanted. Financials led the action for the fourth straight session. The sector surged more than 6% in the latest round of action. The sector's surge came even though many analysts aren't yet willing to upgrade bank stocks for fear of undesirable loan exposure or, in some cases, uncertainty related to capital levels.

Several natural resource plays were upgraded, however. Chevron (CVX 94.07, +3.50) and Exxon Mobil (XOM 71.58, +3.55), along with US Steel (X 30.51, +1.65) and AK Steel (AKS 9.05, +0.81) all benefited from favorable analyst reviews. Cisco Systems (CSCO 15.92, +2.19) won an upgrade from analysts at Morgan Stanley after the Dow component posted an upside earnings surprise for the latest quarter. Shares of CSCO rallied hard in response.

Amid the stock market's climb, gold bugs took a breather from buying. That left the precious metal to slide 1.8% to $1751.50 per ounce for its first loss in five sessions.

Treasuries also turned lower, sending the yield on the 10-year Note back above 2.30%. Selling intensified in the wake of a 30-year Bond auction, which drew a bid-to-cover of 2.08, dollar demand of $33.3 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of only 12.2%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.80, dollar demand of $36.4 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 37.8%.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom +2.5%, Consumer Staples +3.1%, Utilities +4.2%, Consumer Discretionary +4.5%, Tech +4.5%, Industrials +4.5%, Health Care +4.7%, Materials +4.9%, Energy +5.2%, Financials +6.3%
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +423.37 NASDAQ +111.63 NQ100 +4.5% R2K +5.4% SP400 +1.8% SP500 +51.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2217/3.13 bln/430 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2869/1.88 bln/243

3:30 pm : A rebound in equities pressured precious metals today. In turn, December gold settled lower by 1.8% at $1751.50 per ounce for its first loss in five sessions. Futures have since extended their pullback in after-hours trade, notching fresh lows at $1734.50. One theme at hand, the CME hiked margins again on the gold contract, but that news had little effect on futures in overnight action as prices climbed to a new all-time high at $1817.60 per ounce.

September silver shed 2.0% to close at $38.67 per ounce after they had rallied off their lows of $37.94. Silver prices had been probed the $39 level in intraday trade.

September crude oil settled higher by 3.4% at $85.72 per barrel. Crude spent most of the day rallying off of its low of $81.03. Buying accelerated into the close of pit trade, helped along by an extension of gains by the equity market. Crude set a session high of $85.90 per barrel along the way. The advance this session makes for crude oil's first back-to-back bounce since the commodity started to slide from the $100 area.

September natural gas finished 2.7% higher at $4.11 per MMBtu. This morning's inventory data, which showed a smaller-than-expected build, helped futures hit a seven-session high of $4.14 per MMBtu before pulling back. DJ30 +497.01 NASDAQ +119.52 SP500 +58.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2135/2.32 bln/459 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2844/1.16 bln/254

3:00 pm : Stocks are sitting at session highs as they enter the final hour of the day. Despite today's rally, stocks are still down more than 2% for the week. That's because stocks are still trying to fight back from Monday's near 7% slide, which came as a result of the macro environment and tenuous fiscal and financial conditions in Europe. Although the tone of today's trade may be positive, those themes continue to stir volatility.DJ30 +445.39 NASDAQ +111.15 SP500 +52.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2093/2.14 bln/495 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2794/1.05 bln/290

2:30 pm : Stocks have broken free from their recent trading range to set a new session high. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are now up more than 4%. Cisco (CSCO 16.02, +2.29) is a top performer in both averages, thanks to a strong quarterly report and analyst upgrade.

In contrast, Nasdaq component Sodastream (SODA 46.30, -22.51) has lost one third of its market cap today. The stock's slump this session follows some uninspiring commentary about the competitive landscape from the company's management. That has overshadowed the company's better-than-expected quarterly results. DJ30 +421.71 NASDAQ +105.62 SP500 +49.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2080/1.95 bln/495 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2765/960 mln/300

2:00 pm : Stocks are drifting along session highs with a gain of almost 4%. The narrow trading range has kept them from testing the closing high that was set on Tuesday, though. The rally that took place on Tuesday was actually the stock market's strongest single-session surge in more than two years.

Treasuries have recovered some of their losses in recent trade. The effort has taken the yield on the 10-year Note back below 3.30%.

The dollar continues to trade in lackluster fashion. Although it hasn't exactly languished, it has been in the red for just about the entire session. At the moment, the greenback lags a collection of competing currencies by 0.2%. Most of the dollar's decline is owed to renewed strength in the euro and sterling pound. DJ30 +354.04 NASDAQ +94.52 SP500 +43.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2032/1.84 bln/533 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2726/901 mln/332

1:30 pm : Stocks are still sitting at session highs, but Treasuries are rolling over. The effort to dump Treasuries comes in the wake of an auction of 30-year Bonds. The auction drew a bid-to-cover of 2.08, dollar demand of $33.3 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 12.2%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.80, dollar demand of $36.4 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 37.8%. An average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 2.70, dollar demand of $37.6 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 40.0%.DJ30 +364.64 NASDAQ +92.24 SP500 +42.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2040/1.68 bln/500 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2730/810 mln/325

1:00 pm : A relief rally has stocks up sharply this session. The effort has yet to offset yesterday's sell-off, though.

Negativity ahead of the open began to diminish with the release of the latest weekly jobless claims tally. In a surprise move, it slipped to 395,000, which marked the first time in four months that it fell below 400,000. The mood this morning improved further as Europe's major bourses made a sharp bounce in a sign of support, despite continued uncertainty related to the fiscal and financial troubles among the eurozone countries and their banking institutions.

Stocks did run into some selling pressure shortly after the open, but once they stabilized buyers became more confident, providing broader support. As has been the case all week, financials are leading this session's action. The sector is up 5.0%, more than any other sector.

However, the tech sector, up 4.1%, is home to one of today's top performers by percent gained. Cisco (CSCO 15.78, +2.05) has surged in the wake of its latest quarterly report, which featured an upside earnings surprise. The stock's surge today is largely attributable to the fact that the better-than-expected results contradicted the low expectations set forth for the company. Shares of CSCO have also been helped by an analyst upgrade.

The stock market's bounce today has given gold a break from its climb to record levels. The yellow metal is down 1.1% to $1765 per ounce today. Treasuries, another traditional safe haven, are also under pressure this session. As such, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is back above 3.2%. Results from an auction of 30-year Bonds are due at any moment. DJ30 +364.26 NASDAQ +88.44 SP500 +42.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2017/1.50 bln/517 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2644/720 mln/392

12:30 pm : For the fourth straight session the S&P 500 has made a move of more than 2%. The dramatic action has come as investors assess concerns about global economic growth and uncertainty related to the fiscal and financial troubles among the eurozone countries and many of their financial institutions. That said, the notion that stocks have suffered from overly harsh selling has helped drive a few relief rallies, as has been the case today.DJ30 +278.89 NASDAQ +72.11 SP500 +32.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1960/1.38 bln/550 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2586/665 mln/424

12:00 pm : Stocks have regrouped after drifting lower in recent trade. They aren't quite back at session highs, however.

Despite the improved tone of trade today, the Volatility Index is down a relatively tame 3%. Earlier this week it soared to a multi-year high.

Nonetheless, strength among stocks and diminished volatility have sent Treasuries lower. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now up to 2.24% after it had been below 2.10% yesterday. Results from an auction of 30-year Bonds at 1:00 PM ET will be of particular interest to fixed income traders, and many broad market participants for that matter. DJ30 +275.06 NASDAQ +75.38 SP500 +32.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1990/1.22 bln/505 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2550/588 mln/442

11:30 am : Stocks are drifting off of the highs that were set about one hour ago. The fade has been broad based. Still, financials and tech, two of the largest sectors by market weight, continue to provide the most support. They are up 3.3% and 3.1%, respectively. Financials have been broad market drivers for the past few days, but tech stocks have mostly been in the back seat. Tech's resurgance this session comes with help from Cisco (CSCO 16.02, +2.29), which was actually given an analyst upgrade at Morgan Stanley following the company's upside earnings surprise last evening.DJ30 +256.00 NASDAQ +68.23 SP500 +30.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1990/1.02 bln/470 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2545/485 mln/420

11:00 am : Stocks have extended their morning climb. The major equity averages are now just shy of their daily highs.

Amid the sharp losses of late, analysts have been busy revising their ratings on select stocks. Among the more widely held names, Chevron (CVX 92.67, +2.10) was upgraded by analysts at Oppenheimer. Fellow integrated oil giant Exxon Mobil (XOM 70.52, +2.49) was added to the Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs. Colgate-Palmolive (CL 82.48, +2.30) was upgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley. DJ30 +262.96 NASDAQ +70.20 SP500 +29.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1942/835 mln/493 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2444/401 mln/490

10:35 am : The dollar index is back near the flat line, while commodities are mixed.

Natural gas futures sold off about an hour ago, falling from the $4 level to just under $3.96/MMBtu. Ahead of inventory data, the energy component remained near $3.96. Following the data, which showed a build of 25 bcf vs. consensus which called for a build of 35 bcf, nat gas spiked sharply and is now up 2.4% at $4.10/MMBtu.

Crude oil futures fell as far as $81.03/barrel earlier this morning, but have recovered off those lows and are now back in positive territory. Currently, crude is up 0.5% at $83.24/barrel.

Gold and silver futures have been weak all morning and hit new session lows in recent trade. Currently, gold is down 1.5 at $1757.80, while silver is 3.0% lower at $38.14/oz.DJ30 +191.33 NASDAQ +57.13 SP500 +23.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1879/725 mln/537 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2253/352 mln/641

10:00 am : Stocks have made a strong move higher to reclaim the gains that they recently surrendered. The move comes without any catalyst or headline.

Bank of America (BAC 7.09, +0.32) is one of this morning's better performing issues. The stock's bounce has helped it cut into the loss that it suffered yesterday. Still, Cisco (CSCO 16.05, +2.32) is the top performing blue chip; it is now up almost 17%. DJ30 +122.76 NASDAQ +35.22 SP500 +13.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1754/101 mln/389 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2114/77 mln/461

09:45 am : Stocks have begun to pull back from a strong upward push that came with the open, but the broad market continues to boast a gain of more than 1%.

To little surprise, financials are leading the action. The sector has been a driving force behind broad market action all week. Today, the sector is up 1.8%, which makes it the top performing sector.

Tech stocks aren't far behind, however. The sector's 1.6% gain has been helped along by a positive response to the latest quarterly report from Dow component Cisco (CSCO 15.64, +1.91). DJ30 +96.27 NASDAQ +31.15 SP500 +11.21

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +28.00. The mood among premarket participants has improved markedly during the past hour. The corresponding climb by stock futures has coincided with strong bounce by Europe's major bourses, and news that initial weekly jobless claims slipped below 400,000 for the first time in four months. Still, the question at hand is whether or not stocks can put together any kind of a sustainable gain, given the temptation to sell the advance in order to limit the potential for future losses amid ongoing volatility.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.00. Many widely watched commodities have moved lower this morning. Specifically, gold prices are down 0.6% to $1774 per ounce as the precious metal takes a breather after extending its climb yesterday to a new record high above $1800 per ounce. Silver prices are down 0.9% to $39 per ounce. In the energy complex, crude oil is currently priced at $82.20 per barrel, which makes for a 0.8% loss in the first few minutes of pit trade. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are down 0.8% at $3.97 per MMBtu ahead of its weekly inventory report at 10:30 AM ET.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.00. Broad market futures got a little bit of relief from the latest data, but they continue to point to a lower start for the session. Initial jobless claims for the week ended August 6 totaled 395,000, which is down from the 402,000 claims filed in the prior week and less than the tally of 409,000 that had been widely anticipated. The latest tally marks the first time since early April that the initial claims count fell below 400,000. Continuing claims were also down. They totaled 3.69 million after they had been at 3.75 million the week before. Separately, the trade deficit for June totaled $53.1 billion, which is greater than the $48.0 billion deficit that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.00. Aggressive selling during the prior session has extended into this morning's trade. The carryover comes amid weak action in Europe, where concerns about fiscal and financial conditions have spread from peripheral countries to core locations like France, even though S&P and Moody's have stood by their ratings and the CEO of Societe Generale attempted to dispel worries about the firm yesterday. Still, France's CAC is currently down by about 3%. Even though selling pressure has persisted, gold prices are in the red with a minor loss at $1780 per ounce. Meanwhile, Treasuries are down ahead of the open and the dollar is flat against a collection of competing currencies. Corporate news has featured positive earnings surprises from Cisco Systems (CSCO), News Corp (NWS.A), and Kohl's (KSS), but none of them have had any real influence over broader action ahead of the open. As for the economic calendar, monthly international trade data and the latest weekly initial jobless claims count are due at the bottom of the hour. Results from an auction of 30-year Bonds are due at 1:00 PM ET.

06:49 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +12.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +29.80.

06:49 am : Nikkei...8981.94...-56.80...-0.60%. Hang Seng...19595.14...-188.50...-1.00%.

06:49 am : FTSE...5045.90...+38.70...+0.80%. DAX...5655.97...+42.60...+0.80%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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