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 Post subject: August 31st Weds 2011 Emini TF (No Trades Personal Day Off)
PostPosted: Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:47 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Quote:
No trades today due to teacher/parent meeting with kids teachers at a new school and other personal appointments. Yet, the month of trading has been good because of the key changes in volatility that not trading on the last day of the month will be used to take a breather because I'm not expecting thinks to change in the month of September involving the consistent strong directional price movements (down or up) we've seen the past month.

Trade Performance for Today: +0.00 points or $0.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=93&t=985.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=142&t=1168

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

S&P 500 Index Caps Best Eight-Day Gain Since 2009

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rose, capping the best eight-day gain since 2009 for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as speculation the economy will keep expanding overshadowed a tumble in AT&T Inc. following a government antitrust lawsuit.

Stocks End Ugly August On Slightly Higher Note

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer August 31, 2011: 4:22 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- It was a brutal August, but at least Wall Street ended modestly higher on its last day as investors on Wednesday digested several economic reports on the labor market and manufacturing.

Preliminary tallies show the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) closed up 54 points, or 0.4%, to 11,614; the S&P 500 (SPX) was up 6 points, or 0.6%, to 1,219; and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose 3 points, or 0.1%, to 2,579.

The Dow was led higher by shares of Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), up more than 3% following two strong reports on factory orders and the Chicago purchasing managers' index.

But shares of AT&T (T, Fortune 500) dropped nearly 4% following news that the U.S. Justice Department had filed an antitrust suit to block the telecommunications giant's proposed buyout of T-Mobile. Sprint (S, Fortune 500) shares jumped 7% on the news as well.

"The lawsuit is only going to reinforce the opinion among investors that government has been nothing but roadblock in the recovery instead of an aid in the recovery," said Michael James, senior equity trader with Wedbush Morgan Securities.

Economic data was front and center yet again on Wednesday, this time with the focus on the labor market.

* Fed debated QE3 at August meeting

Challenger, Gray & Christmas said the number of planned job cuts fell 23% in August. And private-sector payrolls rose by 91,000 in August, according to payroll processor ADP. Economists were expecting the private sector to hire 100,000 new workers during the month, down from the 109,000 in the prior month.

The two reports come ahead of Friday's highly anticipated August jobs report. A CNNMoney survey of 17 economists forecasts that the U.S. economy added 80,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate remained at 9.1% in August.

Today marks the end of what has been one of the worst months for stocks in over a year.

"We got to this point where we were expecting Armageddon, so anything less than that is good news right now," said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist with Key Private Bank.

Investors battled through nauseating volatility throughout August, starting with the debt ceiling debate. However, most of this month's turmoil was spurred by Standard & Poor's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating on Aug. 5. That acted as the catalyst for two weeks of wild swings as investors feared the U.S. would tip back into a recession.

In all, stocks fell sharply for the month. The Dow lost 4.4%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 5.7% and 6.4%, respectively.

Stocks ended Tuesday with modest gains following the latest Fed minutes, which suggested the central bank will announce new steps to spur economic growth, even as early as next month when it convenes for a meeting on monetary policy.

"The focus will not be whether there will be a policy response but rather the debate centers around what form -- QE, duration shifts or a cut in rate received on excess reserves -- and when," said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brother Harriman.

Economy: In other economic data, the Commerce Department said June factory orders jumped 2.4%, much better than the 1% decline that economists were are looking for.

The Chicago purchasing managers index dropped to a reading of 56.5 in July compared with a reading of 58.8 the month before. However the number was well above the forecasted reading of 53.0 that economists had expected.

* Video - Bogle: Politicians are big risk to economy

Companies: Shares of Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) edged up 1% after the company announced late Tuesday that it has entered into a partnership with Russian oil giant Rosneft. The deal gives Exxon Mobil access to vast Arctic oil deposits and Rosneft a leg up in cutting-edge oil technology.

Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) shares rose 1% after The Wall Street Journal reported that the bank is looking to sell its correspondent mortgage business.

Shares of Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500) were up 2% despite another report in the Journal that said U.S. government authorities are investigating the software giant's business practices in Africa.

World markets: European stocks posted solid gains on Wednesday. Britain's FTSE (FTSE) 100 gained 1.9%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany added 2.3%and France's CAC (CAC) 40 increased 2.7%

Asian markets ended the session ended higher. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) and Japan's Nikkei (N225) were only slightly higher, while the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong spiked 1.6%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar edged higher against the euro, and the British pound, but the greenback was lower versus the Japanese yen.

Oil for October delivery fell 14 cents to $88.69 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery added $1.90 to $1,831.70 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose slightly, pushing the yield down to 2.17% from 2.18% late Tuesday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : The major equity averages were up more than 1% this morning, but some afternoon selling caused the market to wobble. Still, stocks managed to hold on for varied gains.

An improved mood among investors in both Europe and at home has perpetuated further buying interest during recent sessions. That carried over into trade this morning, such that buyers barely reacted to the August ADP Employment Change, which indicated that private payrolls increased by 91,000 when the consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for an increase of 100,000.

In contrast to the prior session, financials provided leadership to the broad market, but the sector's strength wasn't enough to carry stocks through resistance around the 50% retracement of the market's July-August trading range. Stocks gradually descended from there, but buyers resurfaced once stocks slipped into the red. Their efforts were challenged in the final few minutes, but the market managed to hold on for a gain.

Late support helped the stock market lock in its fourth straight gain, or seventh advance in eight sessions. During those eight sessions the S&P 500 has climbed about 8.5%. Despite such a feat, the S&P 500 actually ended August 5.7% lower. The stock market hasn't had such a poor monthly performance since it fell 8.2% in May 2010.

For the month, financials and energy stocks were the worst performers. Both sectors ended August about 10% below their beginning levels. Utilities were actually the best performers of August. They managed to advance 1.7% as a group. Their strength was largely due to the preference of participants for steady businesses and relatively rich dividend yields amid all of the volatility in the first half of the month.

Telecom plays had also traded with strength in the face of volatility, but still ended the month with a 1.4% loss. Part of that is due to a 1.6% drop today. AT&T (T 28.48, -1.14) weighed on the space following word that the Justice Department is challenging the company's acquisition of T-Mobile.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +1.2%, Utilities +0.7%, Energy +0.7%, Industrials +0.7%, Health Care +0.7%, Consumer Discretionary +0.6%, Materials +0.3%, Consumer Staples +0.3%, Tech +0.1%
Declining Sectors: Telecom -1.6%DJ30 +53.58 NASDAQ +3.35 NQ100 +0.2% R2K -0.2% SP400 +0.3% SP500 +5.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1277/1.99 bln/1284 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1971/1.27 bln/1066

3:30 pm : It was a very uneventful session for Dec gold, which settled slightly lower at $1831.70 per ounce, and Sept silver, which gained 0.4% to finish at $41.77 per ounce, as both metals chopped around the flat line. The metals did manage to rally off the flat line to put in highs intraday, at $1842.70 and $42.09 respectively, but were unable to hold on to most of those gains after pulling back toward the flat line heading into the close. Trade tomorrow could be muted as well as the markets await Friday's jobs data.

Similar to trade in gold and silver, crude oil settled near unchanged at $88.81 per ounce. This morning's inventory data showed a larger than expected build in crude inventories and a larger than expected draw down in gasoline inventories and that caused for little reaction in futures, which closed just above unchanged. Oct natural gas rallied 3.7% to settle at $4.05 per MMBtu. Natural gas turned its attention to tropical storm Katia, currently out in the Atlantic. The NHC updated its forecast today, which said Katia is likely to become a hurricane later today. Futures put in highs at $4.07 in morning trade, their best levels since Aug 12, and spent the remainder of the day chopping around just shy of those levels.DJ30 +3.71 NASDAQ -11.10 SP500 +4.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 983/1.5 bln/1573 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1600/714.2 mln/1446

3:00 pm : Stocks are under pressure as they enter the final hour. In fact, the stock market is at a session low with only one hour remaining in today's trade. The late slide threatens to snap the stock market's recent winning streak, which has been helped along by a combination of improved confidence in the market and end-of-month buying. Stocks are currently on track for a 5% monthly loss, which would be the worst monthly performance in more than a year.DJ30 +15.78 NASDAQ -10.75 SP500 +2.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1000/1.25 bln/1535 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1690/600 mln/1300

2:30 pm : The Nasdaq recently slipped into negative territory, but has made its way back to the neutral line. Although AOL (AOL 15.70, +0.39) has been a source of support, Yahoo! (YHOO 13.65, -0.19) has been a source of weakness. Generally, tech stocks are plodding along the neutral line, failing to offer any kind of collective lift to the Nasdaq.DJ30 +52.86 NASDAQ -0.76 SP500 +5.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1150/1.15 bln/1375 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1990/540 mln/1000

2:00 pm : The Dow and S&P 500 are testing session lows, but the Nasdaq, now at the neutral line, has already fallen to its worst level of the day. The pullback has been broad.

Financials continue to outperform, however. The sector's 1.4% gain is at least double what any other sector has managed to maintain. Morgan Stanley (MS 17.58, +0.54), up more than 3%, remains a primary leader. Goldman Sachs (GS 116.58, +1.40) isn't quite as strong, but is sporting a nice gain of its own. DJ30 +56.76 NASDAQ +2.39 SP500 +6.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1407/1.06 bln/1085 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2315/495 mln/680

1:30 pm : Stocks are on the backslide after failing to extend their early afternoon rebound. As was the case this morning, the pullback comes without any clear catalyst or cause.DJ30 +7.50 NASDAQ +9.21 SP500 +9.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/973 mln/1015 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2365/455 mln/610

1:00 pm : Stocks are reclaiming earlier gains in an effort to extend their end-of-month advance, which has taken the S&P 500 almost 9% higher in just seven sessions. The stock market is on pace for its poorest monthly performance in more than a year.

Positive sentiment among participants continues to prop up stocks. As such, the major equity averages opened in positive territory as traders looked to capitalize on the market's upward trend, which has been helped along by several sizable bounces by Europe's major bourses.

Buyers took in stride the latest ADP Employment Change, which suggested that private payrolls increased by 91,000 during August, even though it wasn't as strong as what had been widely expected (the Briefing.com consensus called for an increase of 100,000). Other data featured a better-than-expected Chicago PMI of 56.5 and a surprisingly strong 2.4% increase in factory orders for July.

Broad-based strength took all three of the major equity averages up more than 1% before the move was challenged. Subsequent selling more than halved the broad market's advance and nearly undid all of the Nasdaq's gain, but stocks have been working to reclaim their gains.

Financials have been a source of support after lagging in the prior session. Yesterday financials fell 0.7%, the only sector to log a loss, but today they have swung to a gain of almost 2% amid leadership from a mix of diversified banks and investment banks. Telecom stocks were yesterday's top performers, but today they are down more than 1% and the only sector in negative territory. Weakness in the space comes as integrated giant and blue chip issue AT&T (T 28.30, -1.32) falls sharply in response to reports that the company's acquisition of T-Mobile is being challenged by the Dept. of Justice.

Although stocks are closing out August on a strong note, the effort hasn't been enough to offset the steep losses that were suffered earlier this month. As a result, the stock market is still down more than 5% this month. DJ30 +111.40 NASDAQ +20.81 SP500 +13.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1475/900 mln/980 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2350/420 mln/610

12:30 pm : Stocks are bouncing back after setting a fresh session low about 30 minutes ago. The recent slide actually took the Nasdaq to within close reach of the flat line.

This is the first time in the past several sessions that the Nasdaq has trailed its counterparts. Although Internet-related names like Amazon.com (AMZN 214.64, +3.72) continues to provide support, Apple (AAPL 386.68, -3.21) has been a particularly heavy drag on the Nasdaq this session. DJ30 +88.28 NASDAQ +16.05 SP500 +10.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1375/825 mln/1075 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2235/385 mln/715

12:00 pm : Stocks are at session lows, appearing to teeter on the edge of falling another leg lower. The market's reversal has taken stocks back to opening levels.

Financials are offering some support, however. Yesterday the sector lagged all session, but today it is up 1.0%, which makes it today's top performing group. Among financial issues, Morgan Stanley (MS 17.42, +0.38) and Wells Fargo (WFC 25.97, +0.57) are top performers. DJ30 +44.54 NASDAQ +3.85 SP500 +6.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1320/705 mln/1100 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2240/335 mln/680

11:30 am : Stocks continue to drift downward from their morning highs. Overall gains are now about half of what they were when stocks set those session highs. The selling pressure has come without any clear catalyst or headline.DJ30 +58.95 NASDAQ +10.05 SP500 +7.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1511/595 mln/868 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2400/285 mln/502

11:00 am : The acquisition of T-Mobile by AT&T (T 28.5, -1.08) is being challenged by the Dept. of Justice, according to recent media reports. The news caused shares of T to drop sharply from a gain of almost 1% to a loss of more than 4%, but the stock has since made a modest rebound attempt.

Meanwhile, the broader market is contending with selling pressure of its own. Although the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both continue to sport 1% gains, stocks are down markedly from their morning highs. DJ30 +95.13 NASDAQ +26.36 SP500 +12.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1725/425 mln/600 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2515/210 mln/360

10:35 am : The dollar index spiked near the top of the hour, which added selling pressure to the commodity complex.

Crude oil futures traded in the red for the majority of morning activity and fell as far as $87.67/barrel. Crude gained steam a couple of hours ago and broke out of its tight trading range near ~$87.50-88.00, pushing back into positive territory and back above the $89.00 level. Ahead of inventory data, crude was just under $89.00. Following the data, which showed a build of 5.28 mln barrels vs. the 0.5 mln build consensus, crude move higher, but erased those gains quickly is now up 0.3% at $89.14/barrel.

Natural gas futures rallied when floor trade opened and hit session highs of $4.01/MMBtu. in current activity, nat gas is at $4.00, up 2.4%.

Precious metals fell into negative territory earlier this morning, during pit trading, and are now mixed. Gold futures are currently down 0.1% at $1827.30/oz., while silver is up 0.5% at $41.65/oz.DJ30 +117.95 NASDAQ +31.09 SP500 +14.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1706/411 mln/613 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2507/205 mln/368

10:00 am : Stocks continue to climb. The effort has all three of the major equity averages up by at least 1%.

Factory orders figures for July were just released. They increased by 2.4%, which exceeds the 1.8% increase that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. DJ30 +126.16 NASDAQ +27.00 SP500 +15.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1520/105 mln/560 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2300/65 mln/390

09:45 am : Broad-based buying has the major equity averages up solidly this morning. A better-than-expected Chicago PMI reading for August (56.5) has helped support the positive tone.

Although all 10 major sectors are in positive territory, natural resource plays are boasting the biggest gains. As such, both energy and materials are up 1.4%. Consumer discretionary plays and financial issues aren't far behind, however; those two sectors are up 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively. DJ30 +83.55 NASDAQ +20.59 SP500 +11.47

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.00. Stock futures are at their morning highs, pointing to a solid start for today's trade. The bid marks an extension of the stock market's end-of-month run -- stocks have already climbed six times in seven sessions -- and comes on the back of another bounce by Europe's major bourses, along with a not-so-disappointing ADP Employment Change, which indicated that private payrolls increased by 91,000 in August. Despite the strength, the stock market is still on pace to log a 6% loss for the month.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.20. Oil prices are down 0.7% to $88.30 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade. The commodity's weakness precedes the latest weekly inventory report at 10:30 AM ET. In contrast, natural gas prices have managed to tick up to a 1.8% gain at $3.98 per MMBtu. Precious metals are mixed this morning. Specifically, gold prices had been up near $1836 per ounce, but have since pulled back to trade with a 0.2% loss at $1826 per ounce. As for silver, the metal is up 0.6% to $41.71 per ounce after it had recently traded a few cents shy of $42 per ounce.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.20. The latest ADP Employment Change indicated that private payrolls increased by 91,000 during August. The tally isn't much less than the expected count of 100,000, as projected by economists polled by Briefing.com. Given the lack of surprise, stock futures have held their lead over fair value. Treasuries initially moved higher in response to the data, but have since pulled back. Still, pressure against Treasuries has the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note a couple of basis points below 2.20%. The economic calendar still features the latest Chicago PMI at 9:45 AM ET and monthly factory orders figures at 10:00 AM ET. Weekly oil inventory numbers are due at 10:30 AM ET.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.20. Stock futures suggest that market participants are ready to put stocks on the path toward their fourth straight gain, or their seventh advance in eight sessions. The bid comes amid renewed strength in Europe, where the continent's major bourses have all bounced by about 1% or more. A key data point is on its way, though. The August ADP Employment Change, which is due at 8:15 AM ET, is generally regarded as a precursor for the official nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Also on the calendar are the latest Chicago PMI (9:45 AM ET) and monthly factory orders figures (10:00 AM ET).

06:45 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.00.

06:45 am : Nikkei...8955.20...+1.30...0.00. Hang Seng...20534.85...+330.70...+1.60%.

06:45 am : FTSE...5320.54...+51.90...+1.00%. DAX...5719.74...+75.80...+1.30%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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