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 Post subject: July 21st Thursday 2011 Emini TF (No Trades Missed Trades)
PostPosted: Fri Jul 22, 2011 5:02 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Quote:
Only one trade signal today as a bullish signal around 0939am est via the 3min chart but I missed the trade. Next, after the intraday highs around 1030am est the market went sideways on low volatility

Trade Performance for Today: +0.00 points or $0.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=92&t=944.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis.

Image Bloomberg.com (Youtube Video) - Stocks Advance On Optimism Europe Will Contain Crisis

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rallied, extending a weekly gain for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as European officials announced 160 billion euros ($230 billion) in aid for Greece to stop the region's debt crisis from spreading.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Jump On Debt Talk
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer July 21, 2011: 5:02 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks surged on Thursday, following news that European leaders reached an agreement to contain Greece's debt crisis.

Gains were further fueled by reports that the White House and House Republicans may have reached an agreement regarding the country's deficit problems and the debt ceiling. Both the White House and House Speaker John Boehner 's offices denied the reports.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) ended 153 points higher, or up 1.2%, at 12,724; the S&P 500 (SPX) added 18 points, or 1.4%, to 1,344 and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 20 points, or 0.7%, to 2,834.

Market gains were broad, with 29 out of the 30 members of the Dow higher. The blue chips were led by shares of Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and Cisco (CSCO, Fortune 500). The only Dow member lower was Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), which was down less than 1%. The chipmaker reported its earnings after Wednesday's closing bell.

* White House 'not close to a deal'

Stocks started rising early Thursday on news that European Union officials agreed to provide additional aid for Greece and overhaul the EU bailout fund.

Before the summit's official start, two crucial players -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy -- reached a consensus on a deal that would provide more aid to Greece.

European markets rose on the initial reports. Britain's FTSE 100 added 0.9%, the DAX in Germany gained 1.1% and France's CAC 40 advanced nearly 2%.

"Both the European sovereign debt crisis and the U.S. debt ceiling problems appear to have become non-issues -- at least in the short term -- which will allow investors to focus more on earnings," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist with Prudential Financial.

U.S. stocks ended little changed Wednesday, as investors moved to the sidelines to survey the latest twists in the debt ceiling drama.

President Obama indicated earlier this week that he would support a plan to raise the debt ceiling that had been floated by a bipartisan group of senators. But investors are still concerned that the Gang of Six's plan may not have enough time or support to make it through Congressional negotiations by Aug. 2.

* Markets: A little too optimistic?

Economy: The Labor Department's weekly report on initial unemployment claims climbed by 10,000 to 418,000 in the latest week. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected claims to rise to 411,000.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing index rose to 3.2 in July, from a -7.7 the previous month. Economists were expecting manufacturing activity to stay flat during the month.

Companies: Express Scripts (ESRX, Fortune 500) announced early Thursday morning it will buy Medco Health Solutions (MHS, Fortune 500) in a deal worth $29.1 billion, combining two of the country's largest pharmacy benefit managers. Shares of Medco spiked 14%.

Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500)'s stock jumped almost 11%, after the bank reported a net loss of 38 cents per share, on revenues of $9.3 billion for the second quarter. Analysts had expected the Morgan Stanley to post a loss of 64 cents a share.

Shares of Motorola Mobility (MMI) jumped 12% after activist investor Carl Icahn said that the company should explore auctioning off some of its key patents.

Genworth Financial (GNW, Fortune 500) shares slumped 13% after the company said late Wednesday that it expects to report a loss for the second quarter.

Shares of Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) were up 1% in the post-market session after the software company's earnings of 69 cents a share, beating the 58 cents that analysts had expected.

After the bell, investors will get earnings results from Intel competitor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, Fortune 500), as well as software maker Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500).

Currencies and commodities: The dollar weakened against the euro, the Japanese yen, and British pound.

Oil for September delivery rose 73 cents to $99.13 a barrel.

Gold futures for August delivery fell $9.90 to $1,587 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury dropped, pushing the yield up to 3.02% from 2.93% late Wednesday.

* EU drafts plan to rescue Greece

World markets: Asian markets ended lower, after China reported weak manufacturing data for July. The Shanghai Composite shed 1% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong dropped 0.1%, while Japan's Nikkei was flat.

The International Monetary Fund urged China on Thursday to allow its yuan to strengthen under more normal market conditions. The United States and other nations have long complained that China artificially weakened its currency to gain an unfair trade advantage.

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Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:25 pm : Broad-based buying drove stocks to a near two-week high. Stocks now head into Friday sporting a week-to-date gain of about 2%.

Traders were dealt another large batch of better-than-expected earnings results (a complete list can be viewed on Briefing's Earnings Calendar), but that didn't do much to stimulate broad market buying interest ahead of the open. Meanwhile, a muted response was made to news that initial jobless claims for the week ended July 16 totaled 418,000, which is up from the prior week's tally of 408,000 and greater than the 411,000 initial claims that had been widely expected.

However, word that a deal to restore Greece's economy has been drafted helped stir buying interest shortly before the open. The news also drove the euro upward and the dollar downward. At the end of the trading day, the Dollar Index was quoted with a 0.8% loss, which puts it on pace for a 1.3% weekly loss.

A Philadelphia Fed Survey reading of 3.20 for July provided stocks with another boost, given that the consensus among economists polled by Brieifng.com had called for a reading of 0.00 after the -7.70 that was posted for the prior month.

Although buying was broad, financials outperformed for virtually the entire session. The sector's 2.5% gain, which comes on top of its 1.1% advance in the prior session, was led by Morgan Stanley (MS 24.20, +2.48). Its 11% surge to a seven-week high came after the investment bank and brokerage outfit reported a narrower loss than had been expected for the latest quarter.

Tech stocks traded as relative laggards just about all session. The sector, which ended the day with a 0.5% gain, was hampered by weakness in F5 Networks (FFIV 98.88, -12.56), which sold off in spite of an upside earnings surprise. Many investors were displeased that after such a feat the firm issued an in-line forecast. Meanwhile, tech giant Microsoft (MSFT 27.09, +0.03) mustered a minor gain ahead of its quarterly report.

Stocks experienced some mid-afternoon volatility in response to headlines that suggested officials moved closer to a deal on the U.S. debt ceiling. The announcement was quickly contradicted by Press Secretary Carney in a comment to CNBC, though. Stocks eventually settled into a narrow trading range that left the S&P 500 to dance along the 1345 line for the final couple of hours.

The afternoon crawl may have lacked excitement, but it enabled stocks to maintain their gains. In turn, the broad market heads into Friday with a week-to-date gain of 2.1%, which would offset the 2.1% slide that was suffered last week.

Treasuries turned lower in response to the stock market's strength. The slide in prices lifted the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note back above 3.00% for the first time in a week.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +2.5%, Energy +2.0%, Industrials +1.5%, Health Care +1.5%, Utilities +1.5%, Consumer Discretionary +1.2%, Materials +1.2%, Consumer Staples +0.7%, Tech +0.5%, Telecom +0.5%
Declining Sectors: NoneDJ30 +152.50 NASDAQ +20.20 NQ100 +0.7% R2K +1.1% SP400 +1.0% SP500 +17.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1759/969 mln/826 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2439/2.38 bln/610

3:30 pm : Among commodities, oil outperformed today. The energy component put together a 0.7% gain to settle at $99.13 per barrel. It had been up above $100 per barrel at its session high, however.

Natural gas started the session with a strong gain, but was backed down in response to a surprise build in weekly inventories. Contracts closed pit trade with natural gas priced at $4.39 per MMbtu for a 2.2% loss.

Precious metals prices were also up this morning, but rolled over to finish in the red. Specifically, gold prices closed at $1587.50 per ounce for a 0.6% loss. Silver settled at $39.09 per ounce for a 1.2% loss. Session highs were set above $1600 and $40 per ounce, respectively. DJ30 +164.84 NASDAQ +23.02 SP500 +19.28 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1771/813 NYSE Adv/Dec 2457/604

3:00 pm : Only an hour remains in today's trade. As things currently stand, the stock market is on pace for gain of more than 1%. Combining that with a 1.6% jump on Tuesday, the stock market could record a weekly gain of about 2%, which would offset last week's 2.1% slide.

As for all of July, the S&P 500 is currently up 1.8% month to date. Should the gain hold, the stock market will offset the near 2% loss that it endured during June. DJ30 +166.39 NASDAQ +24.32 SP500 +19.39 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1758/808 NYSE Adv/Dec 2442/601

2:30 pm : Stocks are stuck in a sideways drift, but that has allowed the major equity averages to maintain their gains. Buying today began with news that Greece has drafted a plan to revive its economy and financial system, a stronger-than-expected reading for the latest Philly Fed Survey, and the belief that officials are making progress in their debt ceiling dealings.DJ30 +148.23 NASDAQ +20.10 SP500 +17.92 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1721/839 NYSE Adv/Dec 2435/595

2:00 pm : The stock market has entered into narrow trading range near its session high. The breadth of buying has been broad all afternoon. Even now, advancing issues outnumber declining issues by almost 5-to-1 on the NYSE.

Financials are still sporting the strongest gains. Collectively, financials are up 2.4%. Only a handful of names in the group have failed to find higher ground. Huntington Bancshares (HBAN 6.10, -0.21) and Genworth Financial (GNW 8.19, -1.28) are on that short list. Weakness in GNW shares comes after the company guided lower, but the slide by HBAN comes in spite of the firm's upside earnings surprise and dividend hike. DJ30 +163.70 NASDAQ +24.05 SP500 +19.56 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1707/844 NYSE Adv/Dec 2451/582

1:30 pm : Stocks have worked their way back up to the session highs that were set prior to word from Press Secretary Carney that a deal on the debt ceiling hasn't yet been struck.

Strength among stocks continues to drive down Treasuries, which now trade at session lows. That slide has caused the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note tick up above 3.0%. DJ30 +173.50 NASDAQ +24.69 SP500 +20.46 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1716/814 NYSE Adv/Dec 2468/540

1:00 pm : Talk of progress in Greece, data, and U.S. debt ceiling talks have helped drive stocks sharply higher this session.

The mood this morning was initially rather mixed as participants took in stride a big batch of better-than-expected earnings and another elevated initial weekly jobless claims tally. However, the tone improved shortly before the open when it was learned that a draft plan has been made to restore Greece's economy and that talks were focused on limiting default to only a few days. The news has helped the euro climb.

The broad market didn't really begin to make a meaningful move higher until a stronger-than-expected Philadelphia Fed Survey (3.20) for July was posted.

Financials have been leaders for the second straight session. As a group, financial stocks are up 2.3%. Morgan Stanley (MS 23.88, +2.16) is a top performer following its latest quarterly report. American Express (AXP 52.47, +0.38) posted an upside earnings surprise, but it has had to fight to stay in positive territory.

eBay (EBAY 34.14, +0.97) bested the consensus earnings estimate, but the stock hasn't been able to keep the tech sector from lagging. Although the group is collectively up 0.7%, the tech-rich Nasdaq has trailed its counterparts all session.

The broad market recently stretched to a fresh session high in response to reports that officials are close to a deal on the U.S. debt ceiling, but that announcement was quickly contradicted by Press Secretary Carney in a comment to CNBC. In turn, stocks slipped slightly from their afternoon peak. Overall gains remain strong, though. DJ30 +161.96 NASDAQ +22.29 SP500 +19.23 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1657/846 NYSE Adv/Dec 2436/574

12:30 pm : The euro has extended its run against the greenback. News that progress is being made in efforts to restore Greece's economy and financial system have helped the euro climb 0.8% to $1.437.

Not to be outdone, the sterling pound has pushed up 0.9% so that it trades at $1.630. Meanwhile, the yen is up 0.5% to 78.44 yen per dollar.

Overall, strength among foreign currencies has caused the Dollar Index to fall to a 0.8% loss. It is now down 1.3% for the week. DJ30 +115.95 NASDAQ +15.21 SP500 +14.32 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1575/918 NYSE Adv/Dec 2355/633

12:00 pm : The Nasdaq's gain is now about half of what it was an hour ago. Its downturn comes amid a waning support for tech stocks, which are up only a modest 0.3% for the session. Although tech stocks collectively account for the most market weight of any group, many other sectors are sporting impressive gains.

Amid the market's broad support, Treasuries have fallen out of favor. Selling in the fixed income space has sent the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note back up to 3.0%, which makes for a one-week high. DJ30 +125.86 NASDAQ +15.82 SP500 +15.06 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1576/898 NYSE Adv/Dec 2367/608

11:30 am : After pausing for some time, stocks are slipping off of their morning highs. Overall gains remain strong, though.

Tech stocks continue to lag the rest of the market. The sector's 0.4% gain, which is less than half of what the S&P 500 has achieved, comes as weakness in F5 Networks (FFIV 100.73, -10.71) and Western Digital (WDC 35.30, -2.78) offsets strength in eBay (EBAY 34.04, +0.87) and Motorola Mobility (MMI 24.24, +1.83). F5's slide comes even though the company posted an upside earnings surprise for the latest quarter. eBay did the same last quarter, but investors have had a much more positive response to the company's numbers. DJ30 +120.65 NASDAQ +19.48 SP500 +13.84 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1684/764 NYSE Adv/Dec 2435/526

11:00 am : The stock market's upward push has taken pause, so as to give stocks a bit of a breather. As things currently stand, the S&P 500 is on pace for a weekly gain of more than 2%.

Financials have been a big driver of today's gains. The sector is now up 2.0%, which makes it the top performing sector in the broad market. For the week, financials are collectively up 3%.

Morgan Stanley (MS 23.26, +1.54) is a top performer among financials today. The stock's 7% spike comes in response to news that the investment bank and brokerage outfit had a narrower-than-expected loss for the latest quarter. Earlier this week peer Goldman Sachs (GS 134.39, +1.64) posted earnings that were well short of what had been widely expected on Wall Street. DJ30 +146.53 NASDAQ +28.73 SP500 +17.34 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1780/635 NYSE Adv/Dec 2507/429

10:35 am : Crude oil prices opened pit trade with a modest gain, but they have managed to build on that move. As such, oil was last priced with a 1.5% gain at $99.90 per barrel.

Natural gas prices have fallen to a 0.4% loss at $4.45 per MMbtu following news that the latest weekly inventory count showed a build of 60 bcf, which contrasts with the consensus call for a draw of 61 bcf. Earlier this morning, contracts had priced natural gas at about $4.50 per MMbtu.

As for precious metals, gold prices are flat at $1597 per ounce. It has spent the past 30 minutes trading between about $1595.50 and $1602 per ounce. As for silver, it is up 0.3% at $39.68 per ounce after it had been back above $40 per ounce earlier this morning. DJ30 +162.76 NASDAQ +31.92 SP500 +19.03 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1796/576 NYSE Adv/Dec 2540/366

10:05 am : Stocks are trying to extend their opening advance in response to the latest dose of data.

The Philadelphia Fed Survey for July came in at 3.20, which is better than the 0.00 reading that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Brieifng.com. It is also an improvement from the -7.70 that was posted for the prior month.

Leading Indicators for June registered a 0.3% increase, as had been widely anticipated. DJ30 +114.81 NASDAQ +14.14 SP500 +13.97 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1642/623 NYSE Adv/Dec 2394/411

09:45 am : The Dow and S&P 500 are up with solid gains in the early going, but the Nasdaq only recently recovered from a slight loss. The Nasdaq's relative weakness comes as shares of heavyweight Intel (INTC 22.31, -0.68) slump sharply in response to the company's latest quarterly report. Its slide has fully erased the gains recorded during the two prior sessions. Weakness in INTC shares has also imbued the broader tech space, which is currently down 0.2%.

Financials are in strong shape for the second straight session. As a group, financials scored a 1.1% gain in the prior session. They have already advanced another 1.3% this morning. American Express (AXP 53.03, +0.94) is an early leader in the group, following news of its upside earnings surprise. DJ30 +66.79 NASDAQ +2.64 SP500 +8.02 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1336/844 NYSE Adv/Dec 2201/523

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.50. Stock futures got some help from news that a plan to stimulate Greece's economy has been drafted. The news has also boosted the euro and, as a result, put the dollar on pace for its third straight loss. Premarket participants have been less responsive to the latest round of earnings reports, which featured a bevy of better-than-expected results. So far, economic data have been limited to the latest initial weekly jobless claims count, which increased slightly more than expected to 418,000. Still to come, the latest Leading Indicators report and Philly Fed Survey are scheduled for 10:00 AM ET. Also at 10:00 AM ET, Fed Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to give a testimony on financial reform.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.20. Commodities have benefited from varied buying interest this morning. Specifically, crude oil prices are up 0.3% to $98.70 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Natural gas is up a more impressive 0.8% to $4.50 per MMbtu ahead of the latest weekly inventory report at 10:30 AM ET. Among precious metals, gold prices are up 0.1% at $1599 per ounce while silver was last quoted with a 0.8% gain at $39.88 per ounce. Collective strength in the commodity complex has the CRB Commodity Index up 0.2%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.00. Stock futures are up nicely after hovering near the neutral line only a half-hour ago. The improved tone is mostly due to news that a deal to restore Greece's economy has been drafted. The news has also given the euro a modest lead over the dollar. There has been less of a reaction to news that initial jobless claims for the week ended July 16 totaled 418,000, which is up from the prior week's tally of 408,000 and greater than the 411,000 initial claims that had been widely expected. However, continuing claims came down to 3.70 million from 3.75 million.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.80. Stocks settled the prior session with modest losses, but the mood this morning is rather muted. In turn, stock futures are flat. The tepid tone comes amid some lackluster action in Europe, where participants have been digesting some underwhelming PMI data from Germany, France, and the broader eurozone, as well as the latest round of talks related to tackling the region's sovereign debt dilemma. However, the earnings calendar has featured another big batch of better-than-expected bottom line results. American Express (AXP), eBay (EBAY), Qualcomm (QCOM), Morgan Stanley (MS), Nokia (NOK), and PepsiCo (PEP) are among the more widely held names that have exceeded earnings expectations. AT&T (T) and Eli Lilly (LLY) matched what Wall Street had expected, but Whirlpool (WHR) and Travelers (TRV) came short of the consensus earnings estimate. The latest weekly initial jobless claims count is due at the bottom of the hour. The latest Philadelphia Fed Survey and Leading Indicators report are scheduled for 10:00 AM ET. AT the same time, Federal Reserve President Ben Bernanke is slated to start his testimony on financial reform to the Senate. Later today, at 1:00 PM ET, results from an auction of 10-year TIPS are expected.

06:56 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.00.

06:56 am : Nikkei...10010.39...+4.50...0.00. Hang Seng...21987.29...-16.40...-0.10%.

06:56 am : FTSE...5807.85...-46.00...-0.80%. DAX...7158.25...-63.10...-0.90%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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