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 Post subject: July 19th Tuesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +10.20
PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2011 12:14 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +10.20 points or $1020.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=92&t=939.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis.

Image Bloomberg.com (Youtube Video) - Stocks Climb After Obama Backs Deficit Plan, IBM Rallies

July 19 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its biggest rally since March, as President Barack Obama endorsed a bipartisan deficit-reduction plan and International Business Machines Corp. spurred the largest technology advance in a year.

Image CNNMoney.com - Dow's Best Day Of 2011
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Annalyn Censky July 19, 2011: 9:25 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The Dow industrials staged their strongest one-day rally of the year Tuesday after President Obama indicated that lawmakers are closer to reaching an agreement on raising the debt ceiling.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 1.6%, or 202 points -- its largest rise of 2011. Of its 30 components, 27 were in the black.

"Obama came on television and it seemed like there was significant progress on the debt ceiling," said Phil Streible, senior market strategist with Lind-Waldock. "Suddenly there was a lot of optimism."

The S&P 500 (SPX) added 21 points, or 1.6%; and the Nasdaq (COMP) gained 61 points, or 2.2%.

The nation could face default if lawmakers fail to raise the debt ceiling by the Aug. 2 deadline. The so-called "Gang of Six" proposal considered by senators earlier in the day plans to cut $3.7 trillion over the next ten years.

"The good news is that today a group of senators, the 'Gang of Six,' Democrats and Republicans... put forward a proposal that is broadly consistent with the approach that I've urged," the President said in an afternoon press conference.

* Gang of Six rolls out debt proposal

Gold -- which had topped $1,600 an ounce earlier -- immediately plunged following Obama's comments. Gold futures for August delivery fell $15.40 to $1,587 an ounce in global trading.

Stocks were already up before Obama spoke, as investors welcomed a strong housing report and some solid corporate earnings.

Before the opening bell, the Commerce Department reported both housing starts and building permits figures that blew past Wall Street expectations in June.

Shares of homebuilder Lennar (LEN) climbed 6.9% and competitor DR Horton (DHI, Fortune 500)rose 5.4%.

Companies: Apple's third-quarter profit of $7.3 billion was more than double that of a year earlier. After being halted before the earnings announcement, Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) shares leapt 6.5% in after-hours trading.

Yahoo! (YHOO, Fortune 500), however, saw its shares fall 3.7% in after-hours trading, after the search engine released second-quarter earnings that met Wall Street estimates, but also reported weakness in display and search revenue.

Earlier in the trading session, News Corp. (NWSA, Fortune 500) remained in the spotlight, as CEO Rupert Murdoch testified before the British Parliament about a phone-hacking scandal that has shaken the press, police and political establishments.

After plummeting to a six-month low Monday, News Corp. shares rebounded 5.5% Tuesday.

* What's in store for Rupert Murdoch?

Meanwhile, investors seemed to shrug off disappointing earnings reports from some of America's largest banks.

Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) shares fell 1.5% after the bank reported a net loss of $8.8 billion, or 90 cents per diluted share. The loss was expected after BofA agreed to pay an $8.5 billion settlement to investors burned by fraudulent mortgage securities.

Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) posted second-quarter earnings of $1.1 billion, or $1.85 a share, missing analysts' forecasts. The investment firm reported net revenue of $7.28 billion. Goldman Sachs shares fell 0.9% after the report.

* Video - Companies hoard cash for deficit 'flood'

Harley Davidson (HOG, Fortune 500) was the biggest gainer in the S&P 500, climbing nearly 9%. The motorcycle maker beat Wall Street forecasts on both earnings and revenue, and raised its shipment forecasts for the year overall.

IBM led the Dow's gains, after the chipmaker reported an 8% year-over-year rise in quarterly income to $3.7 billion late Monday. Excluding one-time charges, earnings per share were $3.09. The positive news bumped IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) shares up 5.7%.

* Track the Dow's 30 companies

Citing strong demand, Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500) -- another Dow component -- reported earnings per share of $1.20 on revenue of $12.7 billion, beating analyst expectations. Shares of the soft-drink maker were up 3.3%.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500) fell 0.6%, after the health products company said its second-quarter income dropped 20% to $2.8 billion -- mostly due to drug recalls. But profit and revenue still beat Wall Street forecasts.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar weakened against the euro and British pound, but rose versus the Japanese yen.

Oil for August delivery gained $1.57 to $97.50 a barrel.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury dropped, pushing the yield up to 2.88% from 2.91% late Monday.

World markets: European stocks closed higher. Britain's FTSE 100 edged higher 0.7%, the DAX in Germany advanced 1.2% and France's CAC 40 added 1.2%.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite was off 0.7% and Japan's Nikkei lost 0.9%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong ticked up 0.5%.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks rallied sharply in response to a strong batch of earnings reports, pleasing economic data, and presumed progress in talks about raising the U.S. debt ceiling.

A positive tone permeated trade for the entire session. It was first spurred by renewed buying interest among Europe's major bourses after they had suffered another slide in the prior session. Earnings also stoked early buying interest, given that the vast majority of reports exceeded what had been expected.

Dow components Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 66.72, -0.37), Coca-Cola (KO 69.32, +2.20), and IBM (IBM 185.21, +9.93) all posted upside surprises. Shares of JNJ and KO actually climbed to record highs.

Bank of America (BAC 9.57, -0.15) also beat, but the stock had a different reaction -- it extended its descent to a fresh two-year low. Fellow financial giant Goldman Sachs (GS 128.49, -0.84) also dropped to a two-year low after it broke character to post earnings that failed to come anywhere close to the consensus estimate.

Of all things, housing data also offered encouragement to early traders. Housing starts for June reportedly hit an annualized rate of 629,000 units, which is greater than the clip of 570,000 units that had been anticipated, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The annualized clip posted for June was the most robust rate recorded since January. As for building permits, they improved to a rate of 624,000 from 609,000 in the prior month. The consensus had called for permits to remain at a rate of 609,000.

The stock market traded with an impressive gain for most of the session, but the S&P 500 was restricted to a range between near-term support around 1315 and near-term resistance around 1320 until President Obama provided a mid-afternoon update on the debt ceiling dealings. Obama indicated a bipartisan group of Senators has agreed to a plan that features tough spending cuts and a revenue component.

The stock market responded by extending its advance beyond the upper boundary of its morning range. Buying was broad, but tech stocks offered the most leadership. The sector ascended to a 2.7% gain. Apple (AAPL 376.85, +3.05) was actually a relative laggard ahead of its quarterly report.

Treasuries also responded positively to Obama's update. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note dropped back below 2.90%.

As for the dollar, it ended the day with a 0.3% loss against competing currencies. That's about half of what it had endured during the early going.

Advancing Sectors: Tech +2.7%, Consumer Discretionary +2.0%, Energy +1.7%, Consumer Staples +1.5%, Financials +1.4%, Materials +1.4%, Industrials +1.3%, Health Care +0.9%, Telecom +0.8%, Utilities +0.8%
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +202.26 NASDAQ +61.41 NQ100 +2.3% R2K +2.3% SP400 +2.0% SP500 +21.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2036/1.90 bln/548 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2417/870 mln/632

3:30 pm : August gold, which settled lower by 0.3% to $1597.40 per ounce, and Sept silver, which finished down 0.7% to $40.65 per ounce, spent most of the session chopping around the flat line. However, in the last ~30 min of pit trade, news of a "Gang of Six" debt plan, coupled with a quickly announced press conference for the President on the debt talks, sent both metals sharply lower as the markets anticipated progress being made in the negotiations. Both metals have extended their respective sell-offs in afterhours trade and have recently traded to fresh lows, at $1585.60 for gold and $39.12 for silver.

August crude oil settled higher by 1.6% to $97.50 per barrel. Futures were able to recoup yesterday's losses, aided by better-than-expected econ data, as well as the anticipated progress being made in the debt negotiations. It was an uneventful session for August natural gas, which finished lower by 0.4% to $4.53 per MMBtu.DJ30 +200.52 NASDAQ +58.43 SP500 +22.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2024/1.5 bln/558 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2404/602.8 mln/638

3:00 pm : Buying has picked up with the arrival of this session's final hour. The effort has lifted the Dow to a 200-point gain and put the Nasdaq Composite on pace for a 2% advance.

Share volume remains moderate, though. That is somewhat surprising, given the number of earnings reports from major companies, which usually drive increased participation. The lack of trading has left share volume on the NYSE to total just a half billion shares. DJ30 +206.99 NASDAQ +57.83 SP500 +21.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1950/1.31 bln/608 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2287/520 mln/697

2:30 pm : Gains remain strong as stocks sit slightly beneath their session highs. Buying interest has also broadened, such that health care stocks and utilities stocks are up 0.6% after they had been mired near the neutral line for most of the session. Even telecom has pushed up to a 0.4% gain after it had been in the red for a couple of hours.

Meanwhile, the dollar has trimmed its loss. In turn, it now trails a collection of competing currencies by a relativey tame 0.2%. The dollar's upturn has coincided with a downturn by crude oil prices as the energy component enters the close of pit trade. Just before settlement, oil prices were quoted at $97.50 per barrel after they had been above $98 per barrel earlier this session. DJ30 +173.28 NASDAQ +52.86 SP500 +17.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1919/1.17 bln/610 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2280/466 mln/686

2:00 pm : Stocks recently moved up to fresh session highs. The upturn came in response to an update from President Obama on the debt ceiling dealings. Obama indicated that there is a bipartisan group of Senators that agree with an approach to make tough spending cuts and a revenue component to the potential plan. The deadline for a deal is still about two weeks away.

The comments have also stirred interest in Treasuries, which have ticked up to their own session high. DJ30 +179.82 NASDAQ +52.07 SP500 +17.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1881/1.06 bln/650 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2224/427 mln/721

1:30 pm : Although participants have displayed a preference for risk this session, Treasuries have managed to tick higher. The move has taken the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note back toward 2.90%.

The dollar hasn't been able to attract much support, however. It is still down 0.5% against a basket of major foreign currencies, including the euro, yen, and sterling pound. With the greenback's gain yesterday, the Dollar Index is down only fractionally for the week. DJ30 +151.41 NASDAQ +41.06 SP500 +14.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1834/959 mln/683 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2093/380 mln/843

1:00 pm : Stocks have been trading with strong gains all session. The improved tone has been helped along by a big batch of better-than-expected earnings.

Buying interest among Europe's major bourses provided a positive backdrop to early trade. A bevy of better-than-expected quarterly reports further improved the mood among morning participants. Among the more widely followed names, Dow components Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 66.34, -0.75), Coca-Cola (KO 69.34, +2.22), and IBM (IBM 183.19, +7.91) all exceeded earnings expectations. IBM went one step further by issuing upside guidance. That has helped its shares climb to a record high and lead the overall tech sector to a 2% gain.

Fellow blue chip Bank of America (BAC 9.43, -0.30) also reported earnings that topped what Wall Street had anticipated, but the stock has been unable to escape selling interest. In turn, shares of BAC are at a two-year low. Fellow financial giant, Goldman Sachs (GS 126.17, -3.16) had a glaring report that featured an earnings miss. Its shares have also descended to a two-year low. A general lack of favor for financials has left the sector to trade with a gain of only 0.3%.

Even though financials have lagged for most of the session, the broad market continues to sport a strong gain of about 1% as the S&P 500 moves along between 1315 and 1320.

Economic data, though limited, has helped perpetuate a positive tone. Both housing starts and building permits for June exceeded what had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Brieifng.com. DJ30 +123.44 NASDAQ +41.47 SP500 +11.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1834/885 mln/650 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2143/350 mln/787

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 continues to drift along, just above the 1315 line. Tech stocks, which collectively make up the largest sector by market weight, have been a primary source of support as the group boasts a 1.8% gain. Meanwhile, financials, which are up just 0.1% as a group, continue to undermine that effort.DJ30 +113.41 NASDAQ +41.96 SP500 +10.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1841/792 mln/633 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2156/314 mln/765

12:00 pm : Although it continues to sport a strong gain, the S&P 500 has drifted lower in recent trade. It now trades near the 1315 zone. Near-term support is said to stand at the 1313 line.

Part of the market's move lower stems from renewed weakness among financial stocks. The sector had staged an early rebound that took it to a solid gain, but that move has failed to hold, so financials are now back near the neutral line with a 0.1% gain.

Bank of America (BAC 9.41, -0.31) continues to be a considerable burden on the overall financial space. Despite an upside earnings surprise for the latest quarter, shares of the diversified bank and financial services giant have dropped more than 3% to a new two-year low. DJ30 +106.71 NASDAQ +40.20 SP500 +10.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1833/717 mln/627 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2119/287 mln/781

11:30 am : Coca-Cola (KO 69.33, +2.21) shares hit their highest level in a decade today. The 3% surge comes after the company posted some surprisingly strong revenue and earnings figures for the most recent quarter. Peer PepsiCo (PEP 68.12, +0.12), which is scheduled to announce its latest results Thursday morning, hasn't really responded all that positively to Coke's report.DJ30 +115.99 NASDAQ +43.96 SP500 +12.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1899/609 mln/536 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2249/242 mln/633

11:00 am : Stocks are holding strong near session highs. The effort has been mostly broad based. However, a few defensive-oriented plays have been lagging.

Among the more notable laggards, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 66.69, -0.40) shares are in the red even though the company reported this morning an upside earnings surprise. UnitedHealth Group (UNH 50.55, -1.40) also bested expectations for the bottom line, but its shares have fallen to fresh monthly lows. Lack of interest in the health care sector has left it to trade with only a 0.2% gain. Meanwhile, the major equity averages are all up by 1% or more. DJ30 +121.70 NASDAQ +46.70 SP500 +13.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1917/494 mln/478 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2239/194 mln/600

10:30 am : Oil prices have spiked to $98.30 per barrel, which gives them a heady 2.5% gain. Natural gas prices are actually down 0.3% to $4.51 per MMbtu.

As for precious metals, gold prices are down fractionally to $1600.60 per ounce after they set a fresh record high near $1608 per ounce during the prior session. Silver also made a strong push higher yesterday, but the precious metal has pulled back today so that it trades with a 0.3% loss at $40.20 per ounce.

In the backdrop, the dollar has declined to a 0.6% loss against a collection of competing currencies. DJ30 +134.53 NASDAQ +46.87 SP500 +14.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1903/334 mln/434 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2227/138 mln/544

10:00 am : Tech stocks have sprinted out to a 1.8% gain. The group's strength has helped give the tech-rich Nasdaq a nice lead over its counterparts.

Among tech issues, IBM (IBM 181.20, +5.92) is a top performer. The stock's jump to a new all-time high comes in response to a stronger-than-expected earnings report and upside guidance. Within the Nasdaq, though, Intel (INTC 22.78, +0.50) is a leader ahead of its quarterly report, which is scheduled to take place after the close of trade on Wednesday. DJ30 +121.21 NASDAQ +41.54 SP500 +12.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1882/135 mln/429 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2237/65 mln/560

09:45 am : The major equity averages are up sharply this morning. The bounce comes after they had suffered sizable losses in the prior session.

Although strength is broad, financials are quickly paring their opening gains. In turn, the sector now trades with a relatively modest gain of 0.3%. Shares of Goldman Sachs (GS 126.77, -2.56) have been a source of weakness following the firm's earnings miss. Pressure against the stock has it at a new 52-week low ahead of its conference call at 10:30 AM ET. DJ30 +123.82 NASDAQ +28.82 SP500 +12.66 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1886/339 NYSE Adv/Dec 2307/428

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +24.80. A big batch of better-than-expected earnings and a rebound by Europe's major bourses have helped stock futures trade higher. Surprisingly strong housing starts figures for June have also helped support the positive tone. The improved mood has also cooled buying of traditional safe haven gold, which hit a new record high yesterday, but is flat this morning. Meanwhile, the dollar has drifted lower. In fact it, currently trails a basket of competing currencies by about 0.5%.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +26.50. Strength in the commodity complex has the CRB Commodity Index up 0.7% this morning. Crude oil has been a big driver of that move; the energy component was recently quoted with a 1.7% gain at $97.50 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade. As for gold, which set a new record high near $1608 per ounce in the prior session, the yellow metal is flat at $1602.50 per ounce this morning.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +22.30. Stock futures continue to trade with strength. The latest dose of data, and the only bit of it on today's calendar, proved better-than-expected. Specifically, housing starts for June hit an annualized rate of 629,000 units, which is greater than the clip of 570,000 units that had been anticipated, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The June tally also marked an improvement over the downwardly revised rate of 549,000 units that had been recorded for the prior month. Building permits improved to a rate of 624,000 from 609,000 in the prior month. The consensus had called for permits to remain at a rate of 609,000.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.50. Stock futures continue to trade with a nice lead over fair value, despite the recent slip that came in response to a disappointing quarterly report from Goldman Sachs (GS). The report has also cast a pall over the rest of the financial space. Still, stronger-than-expected earnings from Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), KeyCorp (KEY), and Bank of New York (BK) have helped keep their stocks higher ahead of the open. Dow components Coca-Cola (KO) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) also posted upside earnings surprises. Fellow blue chip IBM (IBM) did the same, but complemented its report with upside guidance. In addition to a barrage of better-than-expected earnings reports, the overall mood among premarket participants has been helped by renewed buying interest in Europe, where the continent's bourses have rebounded from their slide in the prior session. The euro is also recovering from its retreat yesterday. The economic calendar is light today. It features the latest housing start figures, which are due at the bottom of the hour.

07:07 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +9.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.00.

07:07 am : Nikkei...9889.72...-84.80...-0.90%. Hang Seng...21902.40...+97.70...+0.50%.

07:07 am : FTSE...5780.01...+27.20...+0.50%. DAX...7208.09...+100.20...+1.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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