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 Post subject: July 12th Tuesday 2011 Emini TF (No Trades Personal Day Off)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2011 10:16 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Quote:
No trades today due to personal reasons (family illness).

Trade Performance for Today: +0.00 points or $0.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=92&t=932.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

-----------------------------

Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis.

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Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Financial instability in parts of the eurozone, talk of further quantitative easing, and an underwhelming start to earnings season played into today's trade, yet overall action was really rather dull until late in the day, when stocks fell amid a flurry of selling pressure.

Concerns about the inability of the European Union to contain and remedy the precarious financial conditions of countries in the eurozone periphery prompted participants to drop the stock market in the prior session for its worst one-day performance in more than a month. Momentum from that slide, combined with aggressive selling abroad and a lack of progress in restoring confidence throughout the eurozone, renewed pressure on stocks ahead of the open.

Sentiment improved by the time of the open, but the broad market remained mired near the neutral line into early afternoon trade. Financials had offered some support before they rolled over in the final hour of the session. At its high, the sector was up 1.0%, but it ended the day with a 0.3% loss.

The financial sector's pullback coincided with a broad market downturn that came after participants began to digest the verbiage included in minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. Participants first began to buy stocks in response to news that Committee members discussed the circumstances that could warrant further quantitative easing, but the recognition that members were only being prudent by discussing the topic prompted selling interest.

While stocks were on the backslide, Moody's brought Europe's financial woes back into focus with its decision to downgrade Ireland's debt.

The euro had spent most of the day trying to gain ground against the greenback, but the downgrade of Ireland's debt drove the euro back below $1.40 to a 0.4% loss. Japan's yen actually advanced against the dollar, even though the country's central bank cut its 2011 GDP forecast to 0.4% growth from 0.6% growth.

Production disruptions from the Japan's massive earthquake earlier this year continue to suppress output in the country. Trade data for May indicated that the U.S. deficit with Japan narrowed during from the same period one year ago. Still, the overall U.S. trade deficit ballooned to $50.3 billion, which is the widest that the deficit has been since 2008. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for a deficit of $44.0 billion.

Dow component Alcoa (AA 15.71, -0.20) unofficially started earnings season with its latest quarterly report, but amid all of the macro concerns the announcement was relegated to secondary concern. The lack of attention was also partly due to the company's underwhelming results that featured earnings of $0.32 per share, which is a penny shy of what had been widely expected on Wall Street.

Advancing Sectors: Utilities +0.5%, Health Care +0.1%
Declining Sectors: Telecom -0.2%, Financials -0.3%, Energy -0.3%, Materials -0.3%, Consumer Staples -0.4%, Consumer Discretionary -0.4%, Tech -0.9%, Industrials -1.0%DJ30 -58.88 NASDAQ -20.71 NQ100 -0.8% R2K -0.5% SP400 -0.4% SP500 -5.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1062/2.04 bln/1515 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1265/924 mln/1736

3:30 pm : Continued concerns about Italy helped precious metals trade higher today. August gold finished up 0.8% to $1563.10 per ounce, while Sept silver closed higher by 0.3% to $35.96. Both metals, however, extended their respective rallies in afterhours trade after the release of the FOMC minutes, which indicated some members believe the Fed might have to consider providing additional monetary policy stimulus. Gold futures closed in on all time highs, at $1577.40, but have since pulled back some.

August crude oil finished higher by 2.4% to $97.43 per barrel, ending a two session losing streak. Futures erased modest overnight losses after trading back to the unchanged mark in mid-morning trade. Crude oil continued to climb higher throughout the afternoon and was added by the markets reaction to the FOMC minutes. It ended near session highs at $97.50. August natural gas finished up 0.1% to $4.39 per MMBtu. DJ30 -13.62 NASDAQ -12.78 SP500 +1.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1252/1.6 bln/1306 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1512/638.6 mln/1509

3:00 pm : Stocks have failed to sustain their recent upturn. As a result, the Nasdaq has dropped back into negative territory to trade with with a modest loss. Meanwhile, the Dow and S&P 500 are headed for the neutral line.

The dollar has begun to pull up from its session low, but it is still down 0.1% against a basket of competing currencies. The greenback had boasted this morning a solid gain that took it to a four-month high. DJ30 +20.06 NASDAQ -7.15 SP500 +2.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1381/1.48 bln/1161 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1643/545 mln/1314

2:30 pm : Although the reaction wasn't immediate, stocks have been moving higher in response to verbiage in the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting regarding the possibility of additional monetary policy stimulus. The climb has given the Dow and S&P 500 solid gains. The Nasdaq continues to lag its counter parts, but it has finally managed to poke into positive territory.DJ30 +51.05 NASDAQ +0.64 SP500 +5.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1412/1.33 bln/1116 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1696/475 mln/1254

2:05 pm : Stocks haven't had much of an immediate reaction to the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. According to the minutes, a few members noted that, depending on how economic conditions evolve, the Federal Open Market Committee might have to consider providing additional monetary policy stimulus, especially if economic growth remained too slow to meaningfully reduce the unemployment rate in the medium run. On the other hand, a few members viewed the increase in inflation risks as suggesting that economic conditions might well evolve in a way that would warrant the Committee taking steps to begin removing policy accommodation sooner than currently anticipated.DJ30 -9.42 NASDAQ -10.80 SP500 -0.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1296/1.23 bln/1209 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1490/435 mln/1435

1:30 pm : Results from an auction of 3-year Notes were posted about 30 minutes ago. The auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.22, dollar demand of $103.0 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 34.5%. For comparison, the prior auction produced a bid-to-cover of 3.28, dollar demand of $105.0 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 35.6%. An average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 3.19, dollar demand of $101.9 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 33.9%. Treasuries haven't really shown much of a response to the news.DJ30 -7.11 NASDAQ -5.96 SP500 +0.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1351/1.12 bln/1145 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1530/394 mln/1375

1:05 pm : Stocks have been chopping along all session. The lackluster action comes as participants continue to grapple with concerns about the precarious financial conditions of countries in the eurozone's periphery.

Overseas markets slumped overnight. Their weakness was largely owed to a lack of progress by the European Union in restoring confidence in the financial systems of Italy and its ilk. Europe's bourses were able to improve their positions as trade progressed, but they were not able to fully overcome contagion concerns. That resulted in another round of losses.

Asia's major averages also succumbed to aggressive selling. Hong Kong's Hang Seng suffered the worst with its 3% drop. Japan's Nikkei tumbled more than 1%. The country's central bank reminded the world that the global economic recovery remains challenging with its decision to cut its GDP forecast.

Although weakness abroad permeated early premarket trade, negativity diminished with the arrival of the open. Stocks have since spent the session chopping along the neutral line.

Financials have been a source of broad market support, though. The sector's 0.7% gain comes after it slumped in the prior session. They may lack market weight, but utilities are also up a relatively strong 0.7%.

Tech has lagged all session. The sector's 0.5% decline is largely owed to pronounced selling pressure against semiconductor plays. Weakness in that space has the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index wrestling with a loss of more than 3%.

Only a handful of corporate announcements have been made since the prior session's close. Among them, though, is the latest quarterly report from Alcoa (AA 15.89, -0.02). The company's earnings results came short of the consensus call, but the stock has managed to remain near the neutral line.

Data on the day featured news that the trade deficit ballooned to about $50 billion during May. It had been broadly expected to total $44 billion.

Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting are coming up at 2:00 PM ET.

The dollar had attracted renewed buying interest this morning as traders further sold the euro. That helped the Dollar Index push up to a new four-month high. However, the euro has since rallied so that it now trails the greenback by only a fractional margin. As a result, the Dollar Index is back at the flat line. DJ30 -0.45 NASDAQ -9.93 SP500 +0.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1365/1.06 bln/1130 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1533/370 mln/1385

12:30 pm : Oil prices started pit trade in the red, but the energy component has staged a steady climb that has taken it to $96.34 per barrel for a 1.3% gain. Despite oil's run up, energy stocks have been slipping in recent minutes. Their pullback has left the energy sector to trade with a gain of only 0.2%. Still, names like Range Resources (RRC 55.08, +1.20) and Alpha Natural Resources (ANR 44.22, +0.97) have managed to put together impressive gains.DJ30 +11.01 NASDAQ -7.34 SP500 +1.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1429/966 mln/1042 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1687/343 mln/1221

12:00 pm : The Dollar Index is back at the neutral line, which is its low for the day. Early strength had been the result of a weaker euro, which was clipped in response to renewed concerns about the ability of the European Union to contain the financial troubles of countries in the periphery of the eurozone. The euro has since slashed its loss so that it is now down by only 0.1% at $1.401.

Treasuries have also been cut down. Buying interest at the beginning of today's trade had the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note below 2.90%, but the yield has since climbed a few basis points. Treasuries could see some increased volatility with the release of results from an auction of 3-year Notes at 1:00 PM ET. DJ30 +23.54 NASDAQ -1.05 SP500 +2.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1378/860 mln/1060 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1540/304 mln/1300

11:30 am : Both the Dow and S&P 500 have poked back into positive territory, but the Nasdaq has been unable to make any kind of gain at all this session. Semiconductor stocks have been a heavy drag on the tech-rich Nasdaq, but large-cap tech names like Google (GOOG 534.22, +6.94) and Cisco (CSCO 15.88, +0.44) have offered some support.

A few regional lenders, like Huntington Bancshares (HBAN 6.35, +0.02), have provided a modicum of support to the Nasdaq. Overall, though, financials make up the strongest performing sector this session. That has given the sector an enviable gain of 0.7%. Banks haven't really been the drivers of that move, however. Instead, buying interest in insurance and financial services providers like Hartford Financial (HIG 25.66, +0.56) has fueled the move. DJ30 +7.76 NASDAQ -10.07 SP500 +0.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1231/744 mln/1182 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1404/265 mln/1430

11:00 am : Action has been choppy all morning. That lack of direction has left the major equity averages to trade with mostly mixed results.

Industrial stocks have supplanted tech as the worst performing sector. Tech stocks had been collectively down by about 1%, but they have managed to improve their position so that they now trade with a loss of 0.6%. Meanwhile, industrials have been grinding downward to set a fresh session low, where they have been left to trade with a 0.7% loss. Within the industrials space, Waste Management (WM 36.48, -0.67) and Republic Services (RSG 30.25, -0.50) are primary sources of weakness. DJ30 -7.11 NASDAQ -4.34 SP500 -0.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1212/585 mln/1151 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1473/207 mln/1315

10:35 am : Commodities are mostly lower this morning with a only a select few in positive territory.

The energy markets are lower, excluding natural gas. Crude oil futures were in the red all morning, but have been steadily trending higher. Crude has now moved back near the unchanged line from its session low of $93.55/barrel; now at $95.14/barrel. Natural gas futures are currently up 0.6% at $4.30/MMBtu.

Precious metals are mixed with small gains in gold and silver showing losses. Gold rose as high as $1554.40/oz. earlier this morning and is now up 0.1% at $1551.50/oz. Silver is down 0.7% at $35.44/oz.

Corn futures opened higher a few minutes ago following this morning's USDA supply/demand report. Corn futures are currently up 7 cents (or 1.1%) at $6.40/bushel.DJ30 -6.51 NASDAQ -8.50 SP500 +0.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1140/513 mln/1211 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1420/197 mln/1362

10:00 am : The Nasdaq has attempted to stabilize itself after going on the backslide amid a drop by tech stocks to a loss of 1.0%. Both tech and the Nasdaq are being weighed down by weakness in Novellus (NVLS 32.97, -2.80) shares, which have tumbled to a loss of almost 8% even though the company posted an upside earnings surprise for its latest quarter.DJ30 +5.75 NASDAQ -12.07 SP500 -0.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 845/190 mln/1320 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1115/80 mln/1495

09:45 am : In the first few minutes of trade the major equity averages are mixed. Pressure had been sharp in early premarket trade.

Financials are offering support after they had weighed heavily on the broad market with a near 3% loss during the prior session. Today, financials are collectively up 0.5%. Bank of America (BAC 10.32, -0.03) has yet to share in the sector's strength, though.

Tech stocks, which collectively make up the most meaningful sector by market weight, are in the worst shape. The sector has already dropped to a 0.8% loss. Semiconductor stocks are in especially weak shape; as such, the Semiconductors HOLDRs ETF (SMH 32.92, -1.24) has already dropped more than 3%. DJ30 +15.59 NASDAQ -12.32 SP500 -0.57

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.80. Ongoing concerns about the ability of Europe to contain and remedy the precarious financial conditions of countries in the eurozone's periphery stirred renewed selling interest both abroad and at home earlier this morning. Negativity has eased from earlier levels, but the S&P 500 is still expected to start the session with a loss. Amid the woes of Europe, the dollar has extended its upturn from the prior session; it was last quoted with a 0.4% gain against a basket of competing currencies. Even though earnings season got its unofficial start with the latest quarterly numbers from Dow component Alcoa (AA), which posted earnings that failed to meet the consensus forecast, corporate news flow has been largely of secondary concern. News of a deeper-than-expected trade deficit for May has also received little attention. However, minutes from the latest FOMC meeting could provide a catalyst for trade when they are released at 2:00 PM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.50. Oil prices are under moder pressure in the opening minutes of pit trade -- the commodity was recently quoted with a 0.4% loss at $94.75 per barrel. Early morning electronic trade saw the energy component drop below $93.60 per barrel. Coming off of a strong performance in the prior session, natural gas prices are up another 0.6% to $4.30 per MMBtu. As for precious metals, silver has extended its prior session slide so that it now trades hands at $35.35 per ounce. That makes for a 1.0% loss, so far, today. Gold prices had been up a bit earlier this morning, but they have since retreated to trade flat at $1550 per ounce. The slip in gold prices coincides with an improved tone among stock futures, which have tracked an upturn by markets of countries in the eurozone's periphery.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00. The dollar has drifted lower in recent trade so that it now leads a basket of major foreign currencies by just 0.2%. Meanwhile, stock futures have managed to further improve their position so that they are now more mixed relative to fair value. A recent dose of data indicated that the deficit for May climbed to $50.2 billion from $43.6 billion. Economists polled by Briefing.com had been expected, on average, a total deficit of just $44.0 billion.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.30. Stock futures have managed to work their way up from morning lows in recent action, but they remain in the red as weakness from the prior session lingers in this morning's premarket trade.

Initial negativity was partly perpetuated by renewed selling abroad, which saw Asia's major averages log losses overnight that ranged from Japan's 1.4% slide to Hong Kong's 3.1% drop. The decision by Japan's central bank to cut its growth forecast highlighted concerns about the global economic recovery. Europe's bourses are back in the red amid ongoing concerns about the state of finances among countries in the eurozone periphery, but markets in those corners are starting to see some relief as trade progresses. General weakness across the region had the EuroStoxx 50 down to a near four-month low, but it has since cut its loss to 1.4%. The euro is also trying to improve its position. It still trails the dollar by 0.4%, though.

Last evening Dow component Alcoa (AA) unofficially started earnings season with its latest quarterly report. The company came short of the consensus earnings estimate, but it has suffered only limited selling pressure in the wake of that miss. The stock had already suffered an outsized loss in yesterday's trade. Infosys (INFY) shares are down much more sharply on news of an earnings miss and downside guidance.

As for data, monthly trade figures are scheduled for the bottom of the hour. Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting are scheduled to be released at 2:00 PM ET.

06:42 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -8.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.00.

06:42 am : Nikkei...9925.92...-143.60...-1.40%. Hang Seng...21663.16...-684.10...-3.10%.

06:42 am : FTSE...5846.46...-82.70...-1.40%. DAX...7090.71...-139.50...-1.90%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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