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 Post subject: July 7th Thursday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +8.00
PostPosted: Fri Jul 08, 2011 4:27 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +8.00 points or $800.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=92&t=927.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Advance On Strong Jobs Reports
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer July 7, 2011: 4:46 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks rose on Thursday as investors cheered the release of two stronger-than-anticipated reports on the jobs market, setting the stage for Friday's highly anticipated June jobs report.

At the preliminary close, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 93 points, or 0.7%, to 12,719; the S&P 500 (SPX) added 14 points, or 1.1% to 1,353; and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) climbed 39 points, or 1.4%, to 2,873.

Retail stocks jumped Thursday after several large chains reported better-than-expected June sales. Kohl's (KSS, Fortune 500) was the second-best performer on the S&P 500, up more than 7%, followed closely by Target (TGT, Fortune 500), Urban Outfitters (URBN) and Macy's (M, Fortune 500).

"The outlook for consumer discretionary and consumer staples remains positive, particularly going into the important back-to-school shopping season," said Stephen Carl, head equity trader at Williams Capital.

Financial shares also posted strong gains, with Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) among the Dow's top performers.

* News flash! It's still a sluggish recovery!

Economy: Investors got two strong jobs-related economic reports before the opening bell, which gave stocks an early boost on Thursday.

"The data confirms that, although the job market remains weak, it's showing some signs of stability, and the weakness we saw in the second quarter was more related to the earthquake in Japan than a U.S. economic slowdown," said David Levy, portfolio manager with Kenjol Capital Management.

The U.S. government's weekly report on initial unemployment claims came out before the start of trading and was a bit better than expected.

The government reported 418,000 people filed for first-time unemployment benefits in the week ended July 2. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected a total of 425,000 initial jobless claims last week.

Separately, a report from payroll services firm ADP found that employers in the private sector added 157,000 workers in June, far exceeding expectations.

* Video - Big gains for retail stocks

The ADP report was expected to show that employers in the private sector added 60,000 workers in June. ADP revised its tally for May down to an additional 36,000 workers, after initially reporting a boost of 38,000.

The most-watched indicator of jobs growth comes Friday with the government's monthly report for June. After weak jobs growth in May, economists and traders aren't expecting much better results from June's numbers.

Economists surveyed by CNNMoney are expecting the report to show 120,000 jobs added to payrolls.

U.S. stocks recovered from early losses to close near session highs Wednesday.

* Video - 'Dark horse' CEO Moynihan rebuilds BofA

Companies: Shareholders of NYSE Euronext (NYX, Fortune 500) approved the sale of the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange to Deutsche Boerse. Shares rose 3%.

News Corp. (NWSA, Fortune 500) fell slightly after the company announced it was shutting down the British tabloid "News of the World." The tabloid was at the center of the British phone hacking scandal.

Shares of drugmaker Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500) fell more than 2.5% after the company said it was looking for buyers of its animal health and nutrition business units.

World markets: European stocks rose Thursday. Britain's FTSE 100 was up 0.9%, the DAX in Germany added 0.5% and France's CAC 40 gained 0.5%.

Asian markets ended mostly lower. The Shanghai Composite fell by 0.6%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong ended flat and Japan's Nikkei ticked down by 0.1%.

* How should my portfolio change in my 40's?

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against major international currencies, including the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for August delivery gained $1.91, or 2%, to trade at $98.56 a barrel.

Gold futures for August delivery rose $1.40 to $1,530.60 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury moved lower, pushing the yield up to 3.15% from 3.09% late Wednesday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Buying tapered off into the close, but stocks still scored strong gains ahead of the monthly payrolls report on Friday. Participants were particularly fond of cyclical plays.

A better-than-expected ADP Employment Report bolstered a bullish bias in today's trade. The report suggested that private payrolls increased in June by 157,000, which is greater than the 60,000 increase that had been expected. That portends a positive reading for the official nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

Weekly initial jobless claims received less attention. Although they continue to trend at elevated levels above 400,000, the total initial claims count for the week ended July 2 eased to 418,000 from 432,000 in the prior week. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for an initial claims count of 425,000.

Strength was relatively broad, but buyers were fondest of financials. The sector offered leadership for virtually the entire session and scored a 1.6% gain for the day. Banks were the primary backers of the sector's bounce.

Materials stocks, energy stocks, and tech stocks complemented the financial sector's leadership. Retailers also staged strong gains. Macy's (M 30.46, +1.59) was a top performer among retailers after it reported a near 7% increase in same-store sales for June. Gap (GPS 19.28, +0.95) staged a strong gain of its own after it posted a surprise 1% increase in same-store sales.

Such strong buying has the stock market up about 7% in just two weeks and sitting at its best level since mid-May.

Defensive-oriented stocks failed to participate in the latest leg of gains. In fact, telecom was mired at the neutral line while health care actually logged a loss.

The dollar dipped, too. It had initially moved higher this morning as traders looked to extend its recent advance. However, that move failed to find traction, so the greenback ended the day with a loss of about 0.2% against competing currencies. Relative to the euro, the dollar declined 0.2% after the European Central Bank decided to raise its target lending rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%. The greenback gained 0.2% against the sterling pound, though. Weakness in the pound came after the Bank of England announced that it would leave its target rate unchanged at 0.50% and keep in place its 200 billion pound asset purchase plan.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +1.6%, Materials +1.5%, Tech +1.4%, Energy +1.4%, Consumer Discretionary +1.3%, Industrials +1.0%, Consumer Staples +0.6%, Utilities +0.4%
Unchanged: Telecom
Declining Sectors: Health Care -0.1%DJ30 +93.47 NASDAQ +38.64 NQ100 +1.4% R2K +1.5% SP400 +1.0% SP500 +14.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2007/1.90 bln/608 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2372/843 mln/643

3:30 pm : August crude oil rallied for 2.1% to close at $98.67 per barrel. This morning's econ data helped crude oil futures rally back to above $99 for the first time in 3 weeks. This morning's inventory data did cause for futures to pull back below $99, but crude held on to most of its gains to close well higher on the session. August natural gas shed 1.9% to close at $4.14 per MMBtu. This morning's inventory data, which showed a larger-than-expected build, push natural gas futures to their lowest in close to 3 months. Prices also broke their 200 sma at $4.18.

The pullback in the dollar, following commentary from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's press conference, helped Sept silver close higher by 1.7% to $36.55 per ounce. August gold, which ended up 0.1% to $1530.90 per ounce, did not move higher on the pullback as it spent most of the session chopping around near unchanged. DJ30 +119.36 NASDAQ +42.64 SP500 +16.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2016/1.5 bln/559 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec na/585.6 mln/na

3:00 pm : Stocks head into the final hour of the session sporting heady gains. With this session's move, the stock market is sitting at its best level since May 10. What's more, the stock market is now up almost 8% from the three-month low that was set in mid-June.

This session's bullish bias has been bolstered by a better-than-expected ADP Employment Report, which portends a positive reading for the official nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. DJ30 +115.87 NASDAQ +42.28 SP500 +16.30

2:30 pm : The stock market has moved another leg higher. Despite its overall strength, telecom (unch.), health care (+0.1%), and utilities (+0.3%) remain mired near the neutral line.

Materials stocks have moved out in front of the other sectors. As a group, they are up 1.9%. Financials, which had been leading for most of the session, are in a close second as they trade with a 1.8% gain. DJ30 +126.02 NASDAQ +44.61 SP500 +17.19

2:00 pm : The tech sector, which is the largest by market weight, is up a strong 1.4% at the moment. It is currently led by the likes of Western Digital (WDC 38.59, +1.20) and Seagate Technology (STX 16.92, +0.60), both of which were recently upgraded by analysts at JPMorgan. Not all tech issues are in favor, though; shares of IBM (IBM 176.55, -1.16) are in the red after they were downgraded by analysts at Wells Fargo.DJ30 +100.81 NASDAQ +39.60 SP500 +14.32

1:30 pm : All three major equity averages are at their best levels of the day. Their advance has been steady.

Materials stocks have benefitted from accelerating buying interest, though. The sector is now up 1.6%, which is second only to the financial sector's 1.7% gain. Among basic materials plays, metals and mining name Freeport McMoRan (FCX 55.66, +2.14) is a top performer as it boasts a big 4% gain. DJ30 +106.07 NASDAQ +40.72 SP500 +14.83

1:00 pm : An encouraging precursor to the official nonfarm payrolls report on Friday has helped to reignite the risk trade.

Stocks built on a modest premarket bid with news that the latest ADP Employment Report showed that private payrolls increased by a greater-than-expected 157,000 in June. Although the ADP numbers rarely match the official nonfarm payrolls tally, the report is often directionally accurate relative to the consensus forecast, which currently posits nonfarm payrolls increased by 80,000 in June.

The ADP report was complemented by the latest initial jobless claims count, which decreased more than expected to 418,000.

Corporate news is mostly limited to same-store sales reports from a raft of retailers. Their generally stronger-than-expected results have the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 55.99, +1.33) up more than 2% to an all-time high. Strength among retailers has the consumer discretionary sector up 1.4%.

Financials represent the best performing sector. They lagged yesterday, but this session they are up 1.6%. Banks have been the biggest drivers of the move; their strength has the KBW Bank Index up 2.0%.

An increased tolerance for risk has prompted many participants to rotate out of defensive-oriented plays like utilities, telecom, and health care, all of which have struggled to stage gains this session.

Commodities have also attracted support. Broad buying in that complex has the CRB Commodity Index up a sharp 1.8%. Oil has been a primary driver of that move; it was last quoted with a 2.0% gain at $98.55 per barrel, even after a smaller-than-expected draw was reported for the latest weekly inventory count. DJ30 +91.31 NASDAQ +38.67 SP500 +12.88

12:30 pm : Defensive-oriented issues are the only stocks having a hard time finding favor this session. Specifically, utilities (unch.), health care (-0.1%), and telecom (-0.2%) have been lagging all day. Their weakness comes as participants show a renewed preference for riskier plays in the wake of an encouraging ADP Employment Report for June. The report acts as a precursour to the official nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.DJ30 +91.96 NASDAQ +38.10 SP500 +12.75

12:00 pm : The Nasdaq has stretched its advance so that it now sits at a fresh session high witha gain that is double that of the Dow. The Nasdaq's impressive performance comes amid strong buying interest in large-cap issues like Apple (AAPL 356.76, +5.00), Intel (23.26, +0.51), and Oracle (ORCL 33.78, +0.57).DJ30 +80.95 NASDAQ +35.08 SP500 +11.46

11:30 am : The dollar had traded with strength this morning, but it has since reversed into negative territory. The dollar is now down 0.1% against a basket of major foreign currencies. The dollar continues to trade with a gain over the sterling pound, though; the pound was last quoted with a 0.2% loss at $1.597. Earlier today the Bank of England announced that it would leave its target rate unchanged at 0.50% and keep in place its 200 billion pound asset purchase plan.DJ30 +78.03 NASDAQ +32.95 SP500 +11.10

11:05 am : Oil prices have pulled back with the release of the latest weekly inventory data. Inventories for the week ended July 1 had a net draw down of 880,000 barrels, which is less than the 2.5 million barrel draw down that had been widely expected. Prior to the report, the continuous contract had priced oil at about $99.30 per barrel. Oil now trades at $99 per barrel.

Higher oil prices have helped heat up the energy sector, which has spent the past hour of the session sporting a gain in excess of 1%. Oil exploration plays like Schlumberger (SLB 90.45, +1.34) and Halliburton (HAL 54.13, +1.47) have been leaders in the group. DJ30 +89.73 NASDAQ +34.85 SP500 +12.32 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 2000/447 NYSE Adv/Dec 691/112

10:35 am : The dollar index moved into negative territory in recent trade, which has given commodities a boost.

Natural gas has been in positive territory for the past hour and a half, approx., but has slowly pulled back about $0.02/MMBtu during this time. Ahead of inventory data, nat gas was at $4.23, up $0.01. Following the data, which showed versus a build of 95 bcf versus the consensus of ~80 bcf, nat gas fell sharply to new session lows of $4.08; now at $4.09, down 3.3%.

Crude oil rallied sharply about 45 minutes before floor trading began, gaining about $2/barrel and pushing to new session highs of $99.07/barrel. It has since pulled back modestly and is now up 1.8% at $98.37/barrel.

Silver has been in positive territory all morning, while gold has been chopping around the unchanged line in a tight range of around $1526 to $1530. Silver rose as high as $36.47/oz at around 9:00am EST and is now 1.2% higher at $36.36/oz. Gold is down $1.20/oz. at $1527.90/oz.DJ30 +70.62 NASDAQ +25.32 SP500 +10.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1904/453.6 mln/487 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 699/186.5 mln/103

10:00 am : Financials continue to climb in early trade. The sector is now up 1.4%, which puts it comfortably ahead of the broader market. Bank stocks are the biggest drivers of the sector's advance this morning. Their strength has the KBW Bank Index up 1.9%.

Although JPMorgan (JPM 41.55, +0.99) and Bank of America (BAC 10.90, +0.16) have helped prop up the Dow, the blue chip average is lagging its counterparts, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Its relative weakness comes after it had outperformed in the prior session. DJ30 +73.98 NASDAQ +24.35 SP500 +11.08

09:45 am : Stocks staged a strong gap up at the open, but both the Dow and the S&P 500 have begun to drift off of that starting level. Still, overall gains remain sizable.

Financials are early leaders. The sector lagged during all of yesterday's trade, but so far this session they are up 1.2%. That gain has been matched only by consumer discretionary stocks, which have been boosted by shares of retailers following a barrage of upbeat same-store sales results for June. DJ30 +65.77 NASDAQ +23.47 SP500 +10.52

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +11.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.10. Buying abroad and a better-than-expected ADP Employment Report have helped prop up stock futures, such that a sharply higher start to today's trade appears to be in order. Participants have generally shrugged off the latest weekly initial jobless claims tally, which may have come down more than expected from the prior week, but it remains at an elevated level above 400,000. Retailers have added to the positive spirit of premarket trade, thanks to a flurry of stronger-than-expected same-store sales results for June. Select commodities are attracting buyers, too, this morning. Specifically, crude oil prices are up more than 2% to $98.75 per barrel in early pit trade. The run up by oil precedes the latest weekly inventory report, which will be posted at 11:00 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.60. Buying abroad has the EuroStoxx 50 up 1.0%. Buying comes amid the decision by the European Central Bank to add 25 basis points to its target lending rate, which now stands at 1.50%. The Bank of England opted to stand pat on its target rate, which remains at 0.5%. The BOE also kept in place its 200 billion pound asset purchase plan. Separately, industrial production in the United Kingdom increased 0.9% during May after a 1.7% decline in April. As for market action in Britain, buyers have taken the FTSE up to a 0.8% gain. Man Group Plc is a top performer there. Metals and mining plays Xstrata, Rio Tinto (RIO), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Anglo American are also providing leadership. In France, the CAC has climbed to a 0.9% gain amid broad-based buying. Danone and Carrefour are top performers. Germany's DAX is up 0.7%. Deutsche Bank (DB) is a top performer after it lagged in the prior session.

Overnight action in Asia saw Japan's Nikkei slip to a 0.1% loss. Power companies proved to be the heaviest drags on trade, offsetting strength in names like Tosoh Corp, Chiyoda Corp, and Mitsubishi Motor. Hong Kong's Hang Seng managed to settle with a fractional gain. The effort was made possible by strength among bank issues, which rebounded from their prior session slide. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed with a 0.6% loss. Property plays were a primary source of weakness there.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.60. Stock futures spiked with the release of the latest ADP Employment Report at 8:15 AM ET. According to the report, private payrolls increased by 157,000 during June. That is far greater than the increase of 60,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Initial jobless claims for the week ended July 2 totaled 418,000, which is less than the 425,000 initial claims that had been broadly forecasted. The latest initial claims count is down by 14,000 from the prior week. Premarket participants haven't shown much of a reaction to the initial claims data.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.90. Stock futures are up narrowly this morning. Buying interest, although modest, has been helped along by renewed strength in Europe, where the Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.50%, as had been expected, but the European Central Bank announced that it has added 25 basis points to its target lending rate, which now stands at 1.50%. Domestic data features the June ADP Employment Report, which will be released at 8:15 AM ET. It will be followed by the latest weekly initial jobless claims tally at the bottom of the hour. Today's docket also features weekly inventories for natural gas (10:30 AM ET) and crude oil (11:00 AM ET). Corporate news flow has been slow recently, but that has changed with a flurry of same-store sales reports from retailers. Results have been generally stronger than expected.

06:39 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.90.

06:39 am : Nikkei...10071.14...-11.30...-0.10%. Hang Seng...22530.18...+12.60...+0.10%.

06:39 am : FTSE...6028.49...+25.60...+0.40%. DAX...7462.06...+30.90...+0.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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