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 Post subject: July 1st Friday 2011 Emini TF (No Trades Personal Day Off)
PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2011 7:16 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Quote:
No trades today due to Canada Day holiday here in Canada even though the U.S. markets were open. Also, there will be no trades on Monday July 4th due to 4th of July holiday in the U.S. markets (markets closed).

Trade Performance for Today: +0.00 points or $0.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=92&t=922.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis.

Image Bloomberg (YouTube Video) - Stocks Rise to Highest Level Since May on Manufacturing

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks advanced, sending benchmark indexes to their highest levels since May and the biggest weekly gains in almost two years, amid an unexpected pickup in American manufacturing growth.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks: Best Week In Two Years
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Hibah Yousuf July 1, 2011: 4:41 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The fireworks came early on Wall Street. Stocks started the second half of the year firing on all cylinders Friday, posting the strongest week in two years, as fresh data boosted investor optimism about the state of the economy.

After starting the day barely changed, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rallied 168 points, or 1.4%. Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) and were the biggest gainers on the blue chip index.

The S&P 500 (SPX) added 19 points, or 1.4%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 43 points, or 1.5%.

The gains put the Dow and S&P 500 up more than 5% for the week, while the Nasdaq soared more than 6%. It was the best weekly performance since July 2009 for all three indexes.

In fact, the gains over the last five sessions have helped stocks nearly erase all of June's losses.

Stocks initially got a lift Friday after a stronger-than-expected report on the nation's manufacturing sector. The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index jumped to 55.3 in June -- well above the 51.1 that economists had expected.

"Investors thought the economy would continue to be fairly weak through the summer, but the Chicago PMI number yesterday and the national manufacturing data this morning caused a huge swing in investor sentiment," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial Group.

A strong manufacturing sector will help drive economic growth and corporate profits, he added.

* Market outlook: More turbulence ahead

Stocks ended the first half of the year solidly higher Thursday, following a turbulent six months. The second quarter had been especially rough as soft economic data sparked concerns of a U.S. economic slowdown.

Volume was light Friday as many market participants head out for the holiday weekend. U.S. markets are closed Monday in observance of Independence Day.

Economy: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for June fell to a reading of 71.5, slightly below the initial reading of 71.8.

Construction spending fell 0.6% in May, after rising 0.4% the prior month. Economist were expecting spending to hold steady in May.

Companies: University of Phoenix operator Apollo Group Inc. (APOL, Fortune 500) was the best performing stock on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Shares of the education company jumped nearly 7%, after it reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings late Thursday.

Major auto makers including General Motors (GM, Fortune 500), Ford (F, Fortune 500) and Chrysler reported their June sales figures. Sales rose 10% during the month at GM and Ford, and spiked 30% for Chrysler. Shares of Ford rose 1.7%, while GM's stock edged up 0.7%.

Meanwhile, shares of Eastman Kodak (EK, Fortune 500) slid 14%, a day after the company received a mixed ruling on the company's patent infringement suit against Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) and Research in Motion (RIMM).

Cablevision (CVC, Fortune 500) spun off AMC Networks (AMCX), known for popular hits like "Mad Men." AMC started trading on the Nasdaq Friday under the ticker "AMCX," and shares fell 8%. Cablevision shareholders are getting one share of AMC Networks for every four shares of Cablevision.

World markets: European stocks ended modestly higher. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.7%, the DAX in Germany and France's CAC 40 added 0.6%.

Asian markets ended the session mixed. The Shanghai Composite ticked down 0.1%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong soared 1.5% and Japan's Nikkei added 0.5%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro and the British pound, but gained ground versus the Japanese yen.

* Don't fear the commodities bear

Oil for August delivery slipped 48 cents to settle at $94.94 a barrel.

Gas prices snapped a 27-day streak of declines Friday. The price of regular unleaded gasoline increased nine tenths of a cent to $3.550 a gallon, according to motorist group AAA.

Gold futures for August delivery fell $20.20 to settle at $1,482.60 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged lower, pushing the yield up to 3.20% from 3.16% late Thursday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Surprisingly strong domestic manufacturing data helped drive the stock market to its fifth straight gain. That helped the stock market lock in its best weekly performance in about two years.

Recent PMI manufacturing numbers from Europe and China either underwhelmed or disappointed, but the June ISM Manufacturing Index impressed. It came in at 55.3, despite calls from economists polled by Briefing.com for the number to fall to 51.1 from the 53.5 that was posted in the prior month.

Stocks responded immediately to the stronger-than-expected ISM reading. News that the final Consumer Sentiment Survey for June from the University of Michigan eased down to 71.5 from the 71.8 that was posted in the preliminary report received little attention. A 0.6% decline in construction spending during May was ignored, even though the consensus had called for no change.

Although participants showed favor for a broad range of stocks, consumer discretionary issues were among the top performers. As a group, they advanced 2.0%. Darden Restaurants (DRI 52.79, +3.03) was a leader in the space after the company posted in-line earnings and hiked its dividend 34% to $0.43 per share. Apollo Group (APOL 46.46, +2.78) also provided a push following news of its upside earnings surprise.

The combination of concerted buying and thin volume helped take eight of the 10 sectors to gains of nearly 1% or more. Materials stocks and consumer staples stocks made up the only major sectors that failed to advance more than 1%. Still, their respective gains of 0.9% and 0.8% remain impressive.

Although a strong ISM number helped drive today's advance, the move really marked a continuation of an upward climb that began early this week. Buyers began to step back in only after stocks had logged seven weekly losses in two months -- the one weekly gain was only an incremental move higher. Amid increasingly attractive stock prices, traders and investors showed more willingness to re-enter the market. Confidence was also restored amid Greece's efforts to restore its financial health by passing new austerity measures and voting to implement the plan.

The improved tone of trade culminated in a weekly gain of 5.6% for the S&P 500. Stocks haven't put together a performance like that since July 2009.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (+2.0%), Industrials (+1.7%), Tech (+1.7%), Financials (+1.7%), Telecom (+1.3%), Health Care (+1.3%), Utilities (+1.2%), Energy (+1.0%), Materials (+0.9%), Consumer Staples (+0.8%)
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +168.43 NASDAQ +42.51 NQ100 +1.6% R2K +1.5% SP400 +1.7% SP500 +19.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1910/1.68 bln/671 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2497/863 mln/527

3:30 pm : Weakness in the commodity complex led to a 0.3% decline by the CRB Commodity Complex. For the week, the CRB fell 1.8%.

Oil prices pared losses seen in early pit trade to log a 0.7% loss at $94.79 per barrel, but the energy component finished the week 4% higher than where it began.

Natural gas prices fell 1.4% to $4.34 per MMBtu. The commodity was under pressure all session, but it was able to advance almost 3% for the week.

Precious metals also performed poorly today. Specifically, gold prices dropped 1.3% to $1483.80 per ounce while silver sank 3.2% to $33.72 per ounce. For the week, though, gold prices fell 1.1% while silver prices shed 2.8%. DJ30 +153.90 NASDAQ +39.02 SP500 +17.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1915/1.24 bln/650 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2508/520 mln/500

3:00 pm : Stocks enter the final hour of the day with big gains. The advance adds to the big gains that were posted in each of the past four sessions. As a result, the stock market is sitting at its highest level in more than a month.DJ30 +177.40 NASDAQ +43.76 SP500 +19.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1892/1.17 bln/682 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2472/485 mln/520

2:30 pm : Stocks have started July in strong fashion. The action is really an extension of the strong buying that began in the final week of June.

Sellers were actually in control during the first few weeks of June. Their efforts took the stock market down by about 6% to test its 200-day moving average for the first time in months (the key technical point held on a couple of different occasions). Action was highly correlated with trade in Europe, where focus was mostly on Greece and the country's struggle to restore its financial health. Just this week the country moved closer to its goal by adopting a new austerity plan and approving its implementation.

With Greece's situation looking more stable and stocks looking attractive after falling week after week, buyers have been jumping back in. Thin volume ahead of the Independence Day holiday has made it easier for stocks to move higher, given that each trade carries more relative weight than it would on days of greater volume. DJ30 +155.11 NASDAQ +40.33 SP500 +16.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1898/1.07 bln/662 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2470/445 mln/516

2:00 pm : The stock market's steady climb continues. As a result, the stock market is on pace for another gain of more than 1%. This session's move has the S&P 500 up 5.4% for the week. That ties the week ended July 9, 2010 for the best weekly performance of the past year.DJ30 +151.25 NASDAQ +38.38 SP500 +16.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1898/993 mln/649 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2456/410 mln/524

1:30 pm : Stocks have extended their steady ascent to a fresh session high. All three of the major equity averages now sport gains comfortably above 1%.

Amid such strength, Treasuries have encountered renewed pressure. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now above 3.20% for the first time since mid-May. What's more, the move to that mark has been sharp. In fact, the Note's current yield is up approximately 35 basis points from where it began the week. DJ30 +146.25 NASDAQ +36.38 SP500 +15.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1867/905 mln/659 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2398/375 mln/564

1:00 pm : Flatness this morning suggested that buyers were ready to take a breather after sending the stock market about 4% higher during the four prior sessions, but a surprisingly strong ISM report brought about a new bid. Stocks are now on pace for their best weekly performance in one year.

Trade ahead of the open lacked direction. The insipidity came as attention began to shift away from Greece toward a few underwhelming PMI manufacturing reports from Europe and China's worst PMI manufacturing report in more than two years.

However, once trade opened and participants got their hands on the latest domestic manufacturing data, the mood among traders improved markedly. The ISM Manufacturing Index improved to 55.3 for June. It had actually been widely expected to fall to 51.1. The report completely overshadowed the final June reading on consumer sentiment and an unexpected slip in construction spending during May.

Buying interest on the back of the ISM report has favored industrials (+1.5%), financials (+1.4%), and technology (+1.3%). Consumer discretionary stocks are collectively up 1.5% in response to broad market support and leadership from Apollo Group (APOL 46.82, +3.14) and Darden Restaurants (DRI 52.28, +2.52) following their quarterly reports. Natural resource plays like materials (+0.4%) and energy (+0.3%) are lagging after they outperformed in the prior session.

Broad market strength has the stock market headed for another 1% gain. Similar advances in each of the previous four sessions this week have the S&P 500 at a one-month high and on pace for a 5% weekly gain. That hasn't been done since the second week of July in 2010. DJ30 +129.72 NASDAQ +31.81 SP500 +13.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1835/830 mln/668 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2378/345 mln/578

12:30 pm : North America auto sales for June are trickling across news wires. Ford's (F 14.02, +0.23) sales in June increased by 14% from the prior year. General Motors (GM 30.70, +0.34) announced that its sales for June increased by 11% from the same period one year ago. Privately held Chrysler reported a 30% year-over-year increase.

Nissan (NSANY 21.19, +0.14) announced that its sales for June increased by 11% year over year. Volkswagen said its sales for June were up 35% from the prior year. DJ30 +128.85 NASDAQ +31.39 SP500 +2.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1805/770 mln/686 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2339/320 mln/601

12:00 pm : Financials have rallied to a 1.3% gain. The sector, now among those with the best percentage gains this session, had wavered a bit in the early going. Banking plays and diversified financial services issues have been big drivers of the sector's advance. As such, JPMorgan Chase (JPM 41.38, +0.69) and Citigroup (C 42.98, +1.34) are top performers by percent gained. Despite their strength today, shares of JPM are still down about 3% year to date, while shares of C are flat for 2011.DJ30 +116.89 NASDAQ +27.71 SP500 +11.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1760/670 mln/703 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2311/280 mln/591

11:30 am : Stocks are up markedly for the fifth straight session. That has the S&P 500 on pace for a weekly gain of 5.0%, which is actually the stock market's best weekly performance since a 5.4% advance during the week ended July 9, 2010.

The sharp march higher comes after stocks had spent several weeks stuck in a steady backslide. Prior to this week's advance, the stock market booked only weekly losses since April, save for one week in which the stock market mustered an incremental move higher. DJ30 +122.07 NASDAQ +27.05 SP500 +11.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1692/585 mln/729 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2250/245 mln/633

11:00 am : The major market averages are resting on solid gains. For the second straight session, industrials are among the best performers. As a group, industrial plays are up 1.2%.

Consumer discretionary stocks are also in strong shape this session. Their 1.1% gain has been led by Darden Restaurants (DRI 51.68, +1.92) and Apollo Group (APOL 46.98, +3.30). Shares of DRI are up in the wake of news that the company posted in-line earnings and hiked its dividend 34% to $0.43 per share. As for APOL, its shares are up sharply in response to news of a better-than-expected bottom line for the latest quarter. DJ30 +110.99 NASDAQ +22.05 SP500 +9.80 NASDAQ Vol 494 mln NYSE Vol 209 mln

10:30 am : Strength in the dollar index is helping cause selling pressure in select commodities this morning.

The entire energy sector is in the red as crude, nat has, heating oil and RBOB all show losses. Crude has been in negative territory all session and fell as far as $93.50/barrel about 45 minutes ago. Crude saw a boost following the better-than-expected ISM data and is currently trading 1.0% lower at $94.48/barrel. Natural gas is down 0.9% at $4.35/MMBtu.

Precious metals are also in the red with silver showing the sharpest losses. Gold futures fell below the $1500 level in overnight trade and put in session lows at $1478.30/oz about 30 minutes ago. Silver has been on a steady downtrend since the overnight session began. In current activity, silver is 2.9% lower at $33.82/oz.DJ30 +114.81 NASDAQ +21.26 SP500 +9.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1328/244.9 mln/888 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1946/106.3 mln/804

10:05 am : Stocks have made a strong push higher following a few pieces of data.

The final Consumer Sentiment Survey for June from the University of Michigan came in at 71.5, which is down slightly from the 71.8 that was posted in the preliminary report. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for the reading to remain unchanged.

The ISM Manufacturing Index for June was also just released. It came in at 55.3, which is far better than the 51.1 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The reading also represented a strong improvement over the 53.5 that was posted in the prior month.

Construction spending during May fell 0.6%, but that was a surprise since many economists had expected no change. DJ30 +59.11 NASDAQ +12.80 SP500 +5.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1228/150 mln/771 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1950/70 mln/760

09:45 am : The major equity averages are mired near the neutral line in the first few minutes of trade. Leadership is lacking.

Energy stocks were strong performers in the prior session, when they advanced to a 1.5% gain. This morning, though, they are down 0.9%. The drop in prices of energy shares coincides with a sharp pullback in oil prices, which were last quoted with a 1.9% loss at $93.62 per barrel. DJ30 +5.07 NASDAQ +1.22 SP500 -0.97

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.50. Stock futures continue to point to a flat start for the final session of the week. That would make for a lackluster follow up to the four straight gains already registered. Action could pick up in another hour, however. At 9:55 AM ET, the latest consumer sentiment survey will be posted. It will be followed almost immediately by the latest ISM Manufacturing Index and monthly consumer spending data at 10:00 AM ET. Data from abroad has been underwhelming -- several major European countries reported PMI Manufacturing readings that either showed no change or were revised downward; China posted its worst reading in more than two years. Although data this morning may drive some traders to action, share volume is expected to be thin due to a lack of overall participation ahead of the long, holiday weekend (U.S. markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Independence Day).

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00. Several widely watched commodities are under pressure this morning. Specifically, oil prices are down 1.4% to $94.10 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Natural gas prices have fallen 1.4%. The continuous forward contract currently prices the energy component at $4.33 per MMBtu. Among precious metals, gold prices are down 0.9% to $1488.80 per ounce. Silver prices are down an even deeper 2.5% to trade at $33.97 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.50. After watching Greece's parliament accept a new austerity plan and approve its implementation this week, trade in Europe has turned mixed. Fading excitement surrounding Greece has been a factor in the tepid tone there, but so have a few underwhelming PMI reports. Germany's final PMI Manufacturing reading came in at 54.6, which is down from the 54.9 that it posted in its preliminary report. Action among stocks has been lackluster there. As such, the DAX is flat. Thyssenkrupp and BMW have been burdens on broad market trade, but MAN SE and Commerzbank have been sources of support. France's CAC is currently off by 0.1%. Weakness in Vivendi and Peugeot SA has offset strength in financials Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, and Credit Agricole. France's final PMI Manufacturing reading for June remained at 52.5. Britain's FTSE presently trades with a 0.2% gain. Financial issues like Lloyds Group (LYG), Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Barclays (BCS), and Standard Chartered have been primary leaders there. Capita Group Plc and Fresnillo Plc top the list of laggards. The PMI Manufacturing report for the United Kingdom came in at 51.3, which is a bit less than the downwardly revised 52.0 that was posted for the prior month. The final PMI Manufacturing reading for the overall eurozone remained at 52.0 for June.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei advanced 0.5% overnight. It was led higher by Fanuc Corp, Fujitsu, and Shinsei Bank. Fast Retailing was among the poorer performers. Japan reported that its CPI increased by 0.3% for May, as it did for the same period one year ago. China's Shanghai Composite closed with a loss of just 0.1%. Banking plays were a source of weakness, but news that the country's PMI Manufacturing report for June fell to 50.9, which is its lowest reading in more than two years, did more to dampen overall sentiment. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was closed for holiday observance.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00. Stocks settled the second quarter with a fractional loss, but in the quarter's final four sessions the stock market advanced by about 4%. However, momentum has slowed this morning, so a flat start to the third quarter is generally expected. Overseas markets haven't done a whole lot to help keep buying interest kindled. The lackluster action of Europe comes amid some underwhelming PMI manufacturing reports from the region. Overnight, China posted its worst PMI report in more than two years. Traders get a healthy dose of domestic data later this morning. At 9:55 AM ET the latest reading on consumer sentiment will be posted. It will be immediately followed by the latest ISM Manufacturing Index and monthly construction spending numbers at 10:00 AM ET. Monthly auto sales will be released intermittently during the day.

06:45 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.00.

06:45 am : Nikkei...9868.07...+52.00...+0.50%. Hang Seng...Holiday.........

06:45 am : FTSE...5968.26...+22.60...+0.40%. DAX...7388.99...+12.80...+0.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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