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 Post subject: June 29th Wednesday 2011 Emini TF (No Trades Missed Signals)
PostPosted: Wed Jun 29, 2011 5:54 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Quote:
No trades today due to missed trade opportunities. The key trade I missed was a bullish signal via the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) between 1009am - 1012am est that most likely would have netted me many points in profits per contract on a 4 - 6 contract trade position.

Trade Performance for Today: +0.00 points or $0.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=91&t=918.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

-----------------------------

Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Advance For Third Day
Attachment:
062911-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png
062911-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png [ 501.21 KiB | Viewed 306 times ]

click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer June 29, 2011: 4:33 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks closed higher for a third day on Wednesday, as bank shares boosted the broader market following Bank of America's $8.5 billion settlement over mortgage securities claims.

Investors also cheered Greece's approval of austerity measures on Wednesday, which are meant keep the country from defaulting.

"Some of the clouds that have hung over this market have let up," said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist with Key Private Bank. "The Greek issue isn't resolved, but one forward step was taken and it gets rid of a bit of that uncertainty -- and you can say the same thing for BofA."

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 73 points, or 0.6%, to close at 12,261. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) was the biggest gainer on the blue-chip index, with shares rising 3% after the bank announced a multi-billion-dollar settlement.

* Why bank stocks are still losers

Other banks stocks followed suit, with shares of Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) all moving higher.

The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 11 points, or 0.8%, to 1,307; and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) added 12 points, or 0.4%, to 2,740

Shares of Visa (V, Fortune 500) and Mastercard (MA, Fortune 500) were the top performers on the S&P 500, shooting up more than 10%, after the Federal Reserve imposed caps on debit card swipe fees that weren't as high as expected. EBay (EBAY, Fortune 500), which owns PayPal, was up 7%.

* Video - Greece buys time with austerity vote

"The mood in the last few days has shifted in the market," McCain said. "You have shares of risk-heavy companies coming back, and there's a return of some optimism among investors -- particularly as the quarter ends this week and we head into earnings season next month."

Greece's vote on Wednesday follows a prolonged debate of whether the country should adopt severe spending cuts and tax increases, in exchange for a financial aid package from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

While Greece may have addressed its fiscal situation -- at least for the moment -- there are plenty of other debt-stricken eurozone countries to worry about. And the U.S. economy is still not on solid ground.

* Worst stocks of 2011

"The market hasn't gone anywhere for the last six months, and I can't see any way that we'll break out of this range unless there's significant improvement in growth and employment," said Mic Mills, head of electronic trading at ETX Capital.

U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday, with the Dow jumping 145 points, as investors cheered a report showing that home prices rose in April -- the first time in eight months.

Commodities: Energy and metal commodities rallied Wednesday, with oil prices surging after the Energy Department reported a bigger-than-expected drop in oil inventories.

Oil for August delivery settled up $1.88, or 2%, to $94.77 a barrel.

Gold futures for August delivery rose $10.20 to $1,510.40 an ounce; while silver rallied 3.3% to $34.76 an ounce.

Industrial-grade copper futures were also higher, rising 2.9% to $4.21 a pound.

Economy: The National Association of Realtors said that pending home sales rose a better-than-expected 8.2% in May, recovering in part from April's dismal 11.6% decline.

Companies: US Steel (X, Fortune 500) was among the top performers on the S&P 500, rising 6%, after the company was upgraded to "buy" by Deutsche Bank analysts. Competitor AK Steel (AKS, Fortune 500) also closed sharply higher.

KB Home (KBH) shares sank 15%, after the homebuilder reported a second quarter loss.

Monsanto (MON, Fortune 500)'s earnings widely beat expectations, which the company attributed to strength in its seeds business. Shares of Monsanto rose 5%.

Currencies and Bonds: The dollar weakened against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged lower, pushing the yield up to 3.12% from 3.04% late Tuesday.

World markets: European stocks closed sharply higher following Greece's austerity vote. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1.5%, the DAX in Germany surged 1.7% and France's CAC 40 rallied 1.9%.

Asian markets ended the session mixed. The Shanghai Composite slipped 1.1%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong was flat and Japan's Nikkei gained 1.5%.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks scored their third straight advance today. The broad market is now up roughly 3% for the week.

An improved tone of trade this week has helped stocks win support in the face of ongoing protests in the streets of Athens, Greece. The social tumult continued today while the country's parliament passed a new austerity plan intended to shore up the Greece's finances. A vote on the implementation of the plan is expected tomorrow. The austerity plan's acceptance by Greece's parliament wasn't a surprise. It was actually followed with a mild sell-the-news type of response before stocks stabilized and began to make an upward push.

Some afternoon selling threatened to slash the stock market's gain, but leadership from the financial sector helped drive a broader rebound. Although the sector had already been outperforming, Visa (V 86.57, +11.29) and MasterCard (MA 309.70, +31.47) emerged late in the session to help take financials a leg higher. Their surge came in response to the final rule on the Durbin Amendment, which saw its interchange cap increased by the Fed. Financials ended the day with a 2.2% gain.

Monsanto (MON 70.26, +3.36) was also a strong performer this session. The stock's upside earnings surprise and guidance helped drive basic materials stocks to a collective gain of 1.5%.

The latest quarterly report from General Mills (GIS 37.38, +0.17) was more lackluster. It featured in-line earnings and downside guidance. However, the company increased its quarterly dividend by 9% to $0.305 per share.

Commodities also performed well this session. Buying was bolstered by a weaker dollar, which was hampered amid an improved view of the goings on in Greece. Among precious metals, gold gained 0.7% to close at $1510.60 per ounce. Silver surged 3.5% to settle at $34.80 per ounce. As for oil, it advanced 2% to $94.77 per barrel with help from some bullish inventory data. Oil had been as high as $95.84 per barrel, which marked a 10-session best.

Treasuries were trampled again. Their weakness was mostly owed to favor for the relative risk of equities, but another display of dismal demand at the latest Treasury auction also drove selling. The auction of 7-year Notes drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.62, dollar demand of $76.0 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 32.2%. Each statistic was well below the six-auction average.

Data was limited to the latest pending home sales report. Although pending home sales increased by 8.2% in May, rather than decline by 0.6% as had been expected among economists surveyed by Briefing.com, there wasn't much of a response to the report.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +2.1%, Materials +1.5%, Energy +1.1%, Tech +0.8%, Telecom +0.6%, Industrials +0.5%, Utilities +0.4%, Consumer Discretionary +0.4%, Consumer Staples +0.4%, Health Care +0.1%
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +72.73 NASDAQ +11.18 NQ100 +0.4% R2K +0.3% SP400 +0.8% SP500 +10.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1271/1.81 bln/1089 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2092/912 mln/905

3:30 pm : Focus in the commodities markets was largely based around this morning's austerity vote in Greece, which passed. The anticipation of that the vote passing sent the euro higher and the dollar lower, which boded well for commodities like gold, silver and crude oil... Metals: August gold rallied for 0.7% to close at $1510.60 per ounce, while July silver surged 3.5% to end at $34.80 per ounce. Gold rallied to its session highs at $1513.80 in late morning trade, but pulled back from those levels into the close. Silver traded to its session highs, at $34.91, in afternoon trade and also pulled back heading into the close.

Weakness in the dollar, coupled with bullish inventory data, sent August crude oil, which settled higher by 2% to $94.77 per barrel, to its highest levels in 10 sessions at $95.84. Futures did pullback below the $95 level heading into the close of pit trade. August natural gas finished lower by 0.9% to $4.32. DJ30 +74.85 NASDAQ +11.17 SP500 +10.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1242/1.4 bln/1125 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2084/624.9 mln/905

3:00 pm : Stocks have stabilized since their recent retreat. The backslide stopped when the Nasdaq ran into the neutral line.

Share volume remains light ahead of the long weekend. The lack of participation is mostly attributable to the thinning of trading desks ahead of July 4, Independence Day. DJ30 +67.92 NASDAQ +6.47 SP500 +8.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1150/1.23 bln/1200 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2024/535 mln/959

2:30 pm : Selling pressure has begun to accelerate. The slide has already taken the Nasdaq back to the neutral line. The Dow and S&P 500 are still in positive territory, but at their lowest levels since this morning.

No single catalyst or headline is responsible for the sudden bout of selling. Instead, pressure has come as some participants opt to take profits after they watched the stock market struggle to extend its advance in afternoon action. At its session high, the stock market was sporting a week-to-date gain of about 3%. DJ30 +46.96 NASDAQ +1.70 SP500 +6.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1067/1.13 bln/1265 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1957/487 mln/1020

2:00 pm : The stock market has slipped off of its session high. Still, overall gains remain strong as financials (+1.6%), energy (+1.3%), and materials Stocks (+1.7%) continue to provide considerable support.

Even though the tone of broad market trade remains upbeat, there are a few issues that have fallen sharply out of favor. Among them, KB Home (KBH 10.16, -1.76) is down about 15% in response to disappointing earnings for the latest quarter. A better-than-expected pending home sales report this morning has done nothing to stem the stock's slide.

Family Dollar (FDO 53.85, +0.83) also reported earnings results that came short of Wall Street's consensus estimate, but the stock has managed to rally back from its opening gap down. DJ30 +67.92 NASDAQ +12.63 SP500 +9.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1239/1.01 bln/1084 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2125/440 mln/837

1:30 pm : Treasuries have retreated deeper into the red following results from an auction of 7-year Notes. The auction drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.62, dollar demand of $76.0 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 32.2%. For comparison, the prior auction produced a bid-to-cover of 3.24, dollar demand of $94.0 billion, and had an indirect bidder participation rate of 47.6%. An average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 2.87, dollar demand of $83.3 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 50.3%.DJ30 +80.33 NASDAQ +14.04 SP500 +10.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1287/935 mln/1030 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2145/405 mln/809

1:00 pm : Stocks are up solidly for the third straight session. The latest leg has come amid leadership from financials and natural resource plays.

News that Greece's parliament passed new austerity measures came as little surprise to early morning participants. In fact, the headline even stirred some selling interest that caused stocks to stumble during the first hour of the session.

Financials were quick to offer the broader market leadership, though. The sector, which had lagged in the prior session, almost immediately shot up to a 1% gain. It has since extended that move so that it sports a 1.8% gain.

Energy stocks and materials issues were a bit slower to gain traction. However, energy stocks have since ascended to a 1.6% gain with help from higher oil prices after a bullish inventory report -- oil was last quoted at $95.45 per barrel for a 2.7% gain. As for materials plays, the sector has been led by agricultural chemical play Monsanto (MON 69.82, +2.92), which posted this morning an upside earnings surprise and forecast.

Tech has had a hard time attracting meaningful support this session. The sector is currently up only 0.3%, partly hampered by mixed interest in large-cap tech issues.

The dollar has remained in the red for the entire session, despite some relief shortly after Greece's austerity plan was approved. Shortly thereafter, though, the dollar drifted lower so that it now trails a collection of competing currencies by 0.4%. This week, the dollar is down more than 1% against that basket.

Treasuries also continue to encounter selling pressure. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is back near 3.10%, which puts the yield in line with its two-week high. Results from an auction of 7-year Notes are due at any moment. DJ30 +76.93 NASDAQ +13.48 SP500 +10.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1253/855 mln/1042 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2141/370 mln/787

12:30 pm : Strength among stocks has kept pressure on Treasuries. In fact, a half-point drop by the benchmark 10-year Note has its yield up to 3.10% for the first time in more than 10 days.

Treasuries remain in focus ahead of results from an auction of 7-year Notes at the top of the hour. Expectations for the auction are low, given the anemic demand exhibited at the 2-year Note auction and the 5-year Note auction earlier this week. DJ30 +70.46 NASDAQ +13.18 SP500 +10.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1227/770 mln/1051 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2167/335 mln/758

12:00 pm : Stocks set session highs about 30 minutes ago, but they have since drifted off of that mark. Still, overall gains remain solid.

Tech stocks are having a relatively difficult time pushing higher this session. Although up 0.3%, the tech sector has spent most of the day lagging the broad market. Tech's relative weakness comes as heavyweights like Microsoft (MSFT 25.65, -0.15) succumb to selling pressure. Mixed interest in tech issues has also caused the Nasdaq to trail its counterparts. DJ30 +74.09 NASDAQ +11.92 SP500 +10.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1166/680 mln/1082 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2146/295 mln/764

11:30 am : Stocks have extended their recent rebound to a new session high. That has the major market averages on track for their third straight gain. Moreover, gains this week have the stock market at its best level since the beginning of the month.

The stock market's move to a session high has coincided with a downturn by the dollar. The greenback had slashed its morning loss to trade just below the flat line, but renewed selling pressure against the currency has left the dollar to trail a basket of major foreign currencies by 0.5%. DJ30 +71.56 NASDAQ +11.86 SP500 +10.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1150/565 mln/1078 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2144/250 mln/717

11:00 am : Oil prices have extended their rally to $94.65 per barrel, which makes for a 1.9% gain and a fresh session high. That has helped stir interest in shares of oil drillers and services plays like Schlumberger (SLB 85.83, +1.48) and Halliburton (HAL 50.04, +1.35%). Their collective strength has helped the energy sector push up to a 1.2% gain.

Overall, materials stocks are in the strongest shape, though. The sector's 1.6% gain has been led by agricultural chemical play Monsanto (MON 69.42, +2.52), which posted this morning an upside earnings surprise and forecast. DJ30 +41.62 NASDAQ +7.65 SP500 +6.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1149/400 mln/1013 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1974/190 mln/830

10:35 am : Oil prices had pulled back from early morning levels, but they recently made an upward push to new session highs near $94.30 per barrel following the release of the latest crude oil inventory data. Crude oil inventories for the week ended June 24 had a draw of 4.38 million barrels, which is far greater than the draw of 1.5 million barrels that had been expected.

Natural gas prices have come under increased pressure since the open of pit trade. The energy component was last quoted with a 1.0% loss at $4.33 per MMBtu.

As for gold, the yellow metal had been up above $1510 per ounce earlier this morning, but it has since eased back to $1506 per ounce, which gives it a 0.4% gain. Silver has also surrendered part of its morning gain. In turn, the precious metal now trades with a 1.5% gain at $34.15 per ounce after it set a one-week high above $34.40 per ounce earlier this morning. DJ30 +23.69 NASDAQ +3.19 SP500 +5.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1049/325 mln/1075 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1923/155 mln/860

10:00 am : Stocks have spent the first 30 minutes of trade grinding lower. Participants are now taking into consideration news that pending home sales for May improved 8.2% month over month. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had actually called for a 0.6% slip.

Meanwhile, the dollar has been working to cut its loss. The effort has taken the Dollar Index up from its morning low so that it is now down 0.1%. DJ30 -5.38 NASDAQ -6.08 SP500 +1.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 823/145 mln/1219 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1525/80 mln/1163

09:45 am : The tone of trade ahead of the open had been mostly upbeat, but a sell-the-news type of response has followed news that Greece passed a five-year austerity plan. A vote on the implementation of the plan is expected tomorrow.

Financials are showing strength this morning, though. The sector had lagged last session, but it is already up 0.9% today. Diversified finanical services plays like JPMorgan Chase (JPM 40.11, +0.57) and Bank of America (BAC 11.08, +0.26) are early leaders in the space. DJ30 +25.54 NASDAQ -0.66 SP500 +4.18 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 923/1047 NYSE Adv/Dec 1836/821

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.40. Domestic stock futures have drifted lower, but the EuroStoxx 50 is near its session high with a 1.5% gain. Buying interest began ahead of Greece's vote for new austerity measures, which just won approval in parliament. A vote on the implementation of the package is expected tomorrow. The euro has surrendered some of its morning gain, but is still up 0.3% against the greenback. Given the importance of developments in Greece, little attention has been paid to news that the eurozone Business Climate Indicator slipped in June to 0.92 from 0.99 in May. Germany's DAX is currently up 1.8%. Not one of its components is in the red. Adidas is a top performer for the second straight session. France's CAC has climbed to a 2.0% gain in an extension of its prior session rally. All 40 components are in positive territory, but Technip SA is a top performer. Danone is the only name that has failed to gain more than 1%. According to reports, France's first quarter GDP was revised downward to reflect growth of 0.9%. The United Kingdom had announced a downward revision to its first quarter GDP earlier this week. Trade today in Britain has taken the FTSE up 1.4%. Banking plays Barclays (BCS), Lloyds Group (LYG), and Standard Chartered are leaders again. Marks & Spencer and Kingfisher Plc are laggards.

Action in Asia saw Japan's Nikkei advance 1.5%. About 95% of the Nikkei's components staged gains, but Shinsei Bank was a primary leader. CSK also showed strength. The country's industrial production for May fell 5.9% year over year. That was less severe than the 13.6% year-over-year drop that had been experienced for the same period one year ago. Hong Kong's Hang Seng finished flat. Weakness among financials mired action there. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed 1.1% lower. Reports suggest that weakness came in response to claim from one of China's advisors that the country faces chronic inflation.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.20. Oil prices are up to their best levels of the week. Still ahead of pit trade's open, oil was recently quoted at about $94.15 per barrel, which makes for a 1.4% gain. Natural gas prices are lower this morning, though. The energy component was last priced with a 0.2% loss at $4.37 per MMBtu. As for precious metals, gold prices are up 0.6% to $1509.60 per ounce, which makes for a 0.6% gain. Earlier this morning gold prices had probed $1511 per ounce, which marked a weekly high. Silver was last quoted at a weekly high of about $34.40 per ounce. It currently trades just off of that mark with a 2.2% gain. A weaker dollar is in the backdrop. So far this morning, the dollar has fallen 0.4% against a collection of competing currencies. For the week, the greenback has given up 1.2% against that basket.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.00. The positive tone seen in each of the past two sessions persists this morning. The change in sentiment from last week's slide precedes a vote by Greece's parliament on a new set of austerity measures, which are widely expected to be adopted. The euro also continues to gain ground against the greenback. This morning the euro is up 0.5% to $1.442, or up 1.6% week to date. News flow from the corporate realm remains relatively sluggish in that no truly market moving announcements have been made recently. As for data, the latest tally of pending home sales is expected to be posted at 10:00 AM ET. Weekly oil inventory data are slated for 10:30 AM ET. Results from an auction of 7-year Notes are scheduled to be released at 1:00 PM ET.

06:32 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.00.

06:32 am : Nikkei...9797.26...+148.30...+1.50%. Hang Seng...22061.18...-0.60...0.00.

06:32 am : FTSE...5831.72...+64.80...+1.10%. DAX...7277.61...+107.20...+1.50%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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