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 Post subject: June 23rd Thursday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +11.60
PostPosted: Fri Jun 24, 2011 12:02 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +11.60 points or $1160.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=91&t=911.

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Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis.

Image Bloomberg (YouTube Video) - U.S. Stocks Decline on European Woes and Jobless Claims

June 23 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index down for a second day, as concern grew that Europe's debt crisis will hurt banks and an increase in jobless claims added to signs the economy is slowing.

Image MarketWatch (Video) - News Hub: Oil Prices Plunge as U.S. Taps Reserves

June 23, 2011 -- Oil prices tumbled below $90 a barrel for the first time in four months after the U.S. and IEA said they would release 60 million barrels of oil to offset supply disruptions caused by unrest in Libya. Tennille Tracey and Phil Izzo discuss.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Regain Ground In The Home Stretch
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Annalyn Censky June 23, 2011: 5:23 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- After tanking earlier in the session, U.S. stocks recovered nearly all their losses in the last hour of trading Thursday, when reports said Greece had reached an agreement on austerity measures with the European Union and the IMF.

"[The news] was perceived as very positive and without confirming anything, the market rallied 100 points on the news," said Jason Weisberg, senior vice president at Seaport Securities.

Citing unnamed sources, Reuters reported that Greece agreed to a new five-year austerity plan with new tax hikes and spending cuts. That news immediately calmed some jitters about Europe's debt crisis, and helped U.S. stocks regain some lost ground.

At the closing bell, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) was down only 59 points, or 0.5%, compared to much steeper losses of as much as 234 points earlier in the session.

The S&P 500 (SPX) lost 3 points, or 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) added 17 points, or 0.7%.

The Federal Reserve's dim economic outlook put investors in a funk from the get-go Thursday morning. A weak initial claims report only exacerbated those jitters.

Later, an announcement that the government plans to tap into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve pummeled oil prices and the entire energy sector. The International Energy Agency said its 28 members would release 60 million barrels of oil, half of which will come from the SPR.

Crude oil for August delivery plunged 4.6%, settling at a four-month low of $91.02 a barrel.

Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) led the Dow's declines for much of the day.

Amid oil's plunge, Wall Street's fear gauge, the VIX (VIX), spiked as much as 15% Thursday morning, before calming slightly in the afternoon.

Economy: Before the market opened, a report on initial claims brought disappointing news, showing 429,000 Americans filed for their first week of unemployment benefits last week.

That was far weaker than the 413,000 claims economists had expected and marked the 11th straight week that claims have been above 400,000.

Later in the morning, a report from the Census Department showed sales of new homes fell 2.1% in May, after rising for two months in a row, as the housing market continues to struggle.

Companies: Shares of Red Hat (RHT) added 3.5%, after the open source/cloud computing company reported better-than-expected first-quarter results and hiked its full-year forecast late Wednesday.

Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500) and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY, Fortune 500) released positive results from trials of its blood thinner, Eliquis, late Wednesday. Shares of Pfizer rose 1.8%, while shares of Bristol Myers Squibb climbed 5.7%.

Homebuilder Lennar (LEN) released earnings results before the opening bell Thursday, posting a 65% drop in quarterly profit. But because that was better than investors had expected, shares rose 2.3%.

After the market close, software maker Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500) beat analysts' estimates with earnings per share of 75 cents. But Oracle stock fell 5% in afterhours trading.

H&R Block (HRB) also beat the Street's estimates with fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.20, although the tax preparation company announced it took a one-time charge of six cents per share related to legal fees.

* Earnings are the story - The Buzz

Currencies and commodities: The dollar managed modest gains versus the euro, Japanese yen and the British pound.

Gold futures for August delivery fell $32.90, or 2.1%, to $1,520.50 an ounce. And silver prices sank 4.7% to $35 an ounce. Copper prices slid 1.2% and natural gas prices dropped 2%.

World markets: European stocks closed lower. Britain's FTSE 100 slipped 1.7%, the DAX in Germany tumbled 1.8% and France's CAC 40 dropped 2.3%.

In Asia, the Shanghai Composite ended up 1.5%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong slid 0.5% and Japan's Nikkei lost 0.3%.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 2.91% from 2.99% late Wednesday.

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Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Worries about the economic climate caused the major market averages to drop more than 1% before they were able to stabilize. As action progressed, tech stocks helped lead the broader market off of its low, but the rally really got going with news that Greece has agreed to a set of austerity measures.

A downward revision to the Fed's GDP forecast factored in to the prior session's weak finish and weighed on sentiment overnight. Disappointing PMI data from Europe helped keep in focus concerns about the health of the global economy, as did news this morning that the latest initial jobless claims count climbed to 429,000, which is greater than the 413,000 initial claims that had been expected among economists at Briefing.com.

Although new home sales for May slipped just 2% to an annualized rate of 319,000 units, which is greater than the pace of 305,000 units that had been anticipated among economists polled by Briefing.com, the report received little attention.

Aggressive selling took the stock market down more than 1% to within close reach of its 200-day moving average. However, for the second time in one week the key technical line has held.

Few stocks were able to avoid being caught up in the sell off. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 56.93, +2.87), Red Hat (RHT 45.27, +1.55), Discover Financial (DFS 23.89, +0.30), and Lennar (LEN 18.51, +0.41) were on the short list of those that managed to advance in the face of broad market weakness, thanks to better-than-expected earnings from each of them. Pfizer (PFE 20.65, +0.37) and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY 29.33, +1.59) both bounced on the back of news that one of their drug candidates successfully met primary and secondary endpoints in a Phase 3 study.

Broad market selling pressure eased with help from tech stocks, which collectively represent the largest sector by market weight. Tech stocks had been down more than 1% in the morning, but settled with a 0.9% gain. Their strength helped the tech-rich Nasdaq outperform its counterparts all afternoon.

Buying interest was further bolstered by news that Greece has reached an agreement on austerity measures with the European Union and International Monetary Fund. Although the measures must still be passed by Greece's parliament and do not represent an immediate fix to the country's fiscal troubles (it is a five-year plan), the agreement represents progress in restoring the country's finances.

Advancing Sectors: Tech (+0.9%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.4%)
Declining Sectors: Health Care (-0.1%), Materials (-0.1%), Telecom (-0.2%), Industrials (-0.3%), Consumer Staples (-0.9%), Utilities (-0.9%), Financials (-1.0%), Energy (-1.2%)DJ30 -59.67 NASDAQ +17.56 NQ100 +0.9% R2K +0.4% SP400 +0.0% SP500 -3.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1353/2.08 bln/1170 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1246/1.12 bln/1718

3:30 pm : It was a very volatile day for commodities. In overnight trade, the dollar rallied on the weak economic data in both Europe and China. The strength in the dollar weighed heavily on select commodities... Energy: August crude oil shed 4.4% to settle at $91.02 per barrel. Crude recouped most of its losses from this morning's IEA news, but spent a large portion of the session chopping around the $91 level, the same area prices were prior to news about the IEA. Today' settlement price marks crude's lowest since mid-Feb. July natural gas fell 2.7% to $4.20 per MMBtu. A larger-than-expected build in inventories sent prices to their lowest levels in over a month.

August gold settled lower by 2.1% to $1520.30 per ounce, while July silver fell 4.5% to $35.06 per ounce. Both metals sold off sharply on the back of the stronger dollar. In afterhours trade, however, both metals are starting to push away from their respective lows as the dollar pulls back. DJ30 -93.88 NASDAQ +9.58 SP500 -6.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1283/1.7 bln/1248 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1170/790.2 mln/1809

3:00 pm : Stocks had spent the past hour drifting lower, but a sudden barrage of buying recently caused the major market averages to rally. The bounce coincides with reports that the European Union, Internatonal Monetary Fund, and Greece have reached on agreement on austerity measures for the country. Stocks now trade at session highs.DJ30 -135.43 NASDAQ -2.39 SP500 -12.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1021/1.40 bln/1485 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 928/602 mln/2043

2:30 pm : Steady pressure against energy stocks has the sector trending along in a narrow trading range with a steep loss. As a group, energy stocks are down 2.6%. While weakness within the sector is widespread, a near 4% loss for Marathon Oil (MRO 50.75, -2.01) has made the stock the worst performer in the space.DJ30 -172.21 NASDAQ -11.46 SP500 -15.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 849/1.29 bln/1641 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 764/554 mln/2210

2:00 pm : The Nasdaq recently came in touch with the neutral line, but was unable to extend the move into positive territory. It has since slid back to a modest loss.

Treasuries are facing some upward resistance of their own. Despite the weakness in the broader stock market, the benchmark 10-year Note has been unable to push higher in order to drive down its yield below 2.90%. The Note's yield has not yet been below that line this year. DJ30 -147.31 NASDAQ -5.38 SP500 -13.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 929/1.17 bln/1561 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 836/502 mln/2116

1:30 pm : A rally by tech stocks from a loss of more than 1% up to a fractional gain helped take the Nasdaq to within close reach of the neutral line. Resistance there has caused the tech-rich Index to ease back a bit, but the overall tech sector is at the flat line.

Consumer discretionary stocks represent the only other sector that is anywhere close to matching the tech sector's performance. As a group, consumer discretionary plays are down just 0.3%. Retailers have helped the sector. Overall strength among retailers has the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 52.05, +0.12) up modestly. DJ30 -141.79 NASDAQ -5.66 SP500 -13.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 853/1.06 bln/1628 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 757/460 mln/2188

1:00 pm : Although the broad market has worked its way up from its session low, it continues to grapple with pronounced selling pressure.

The resumption of a negative bias comes after participants discovered during the prior session that following four days of gains the path of least resistance was downward. The inclination to sell has been helped by news that for 2011 the Fed expects slower economic growth and higher unemployment.

Concerns about the macro environment were rekindled this morning by news that weekly initial jobless claims increased more than expected. Amid the negative bias, little attention was paid to the latest new home sales numbers, which showed a smaller-than-expected decline in monthly sales. Data out of Europe featured some displeasing PMI reports.

The three major equity averages responded with a gap down at the open. That decline was quickly extended so that they were all down in excess of 1%. The Nasdaq has spent the past couple of hours battling back so that its loss is now only a fraction of what either of its counterparts is printing. The Nasdaq has been helped along by a rebound in tech plays, which are coming within close reach of the neutral line after they were down more than 1% this morning.

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 56.37, +2.31) has also been a boon to the Nasdaq. The retailer's shares have spiked to a one-month high after it posted an upside earnings surprise. A handful of other strong earnings reports were reported this morning, too.

Energy stocks have been in the worst shape of any sector all session. The group's loss, which currently amounts to 2.5%, has come partly in conjunction with a precipitous drop in oil prices. Oil prices are currently down 4% to $91.35 per barrel after they set a multi-month low earlier. Oil's drop comes despite a decision by the IEA to put an additional 60 million barrels of oil on the market over the course of 30 days.

Weakness in the commodity complex has also come in response to concerns about growth, but a sharp bounce by the dollar has put added pressure on the space. The greenback is off of its daily high, but continues to sport a 0.7% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies. DJ30 -154.77 NASDAQ -9.21 SP500 -15.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 801/961 mln/1649 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 696/420 mln/2233

12:30 pm : Recent efforts to trim losses have run into resistance. Although the stock market is retracing part of the upward move, it is still above its session low.

The dollar continues to trade along its session high with a 0.8% lead over a collection of competing currencies. Most of the greenback's gain has come against the euro, which was recently quoted with a 1.0% loss at $1.417. DJ30 -194.16 NASDAQ -21.95 SP500 -19.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 572/860 mln/1869 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 543/380 mln/2394

12:00 pm : The Nasdaq Composite continues to claw its way back from the depths that it probed little more than an hour ago; it is now at its best level of the day. The effort to move higher continues to be led by tech issues, which now are collectively down a relatively tame 0.6%.

Consumer discretionary stocks have also managed to keep losses contained. The sector is down 0.6% as participants show favor for names like Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 56.35, +2.29), which posted an upside earnings surprise for its latest quarter. Shares of BBBY are also among the top performing components of the Nasdaq. DJ30 -170.40 NASDAQ -19.45 SP500 -17.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 579/764 mln/1843 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 531/342 mln/2383

11:30 am : The Nasdaq has managed to cut into some of its loss, but it is still down by about 1%. Its counterparts continue to contend with even worse losses.

The Nasdaq's effort to improve its position has been led by a bounce in names like Apple (AAPL 324.33, +1.72), which had opened with a loss, but has since rallied to a solid gain. Still, other large-cap tech names continue to trade with weakness. More specifically, Microsoft (MSFT 24.28, -0.38) and Google (GOOG 478.14, -8.86) continue to hamper the tech-rich Index. DJ30 -195.60 NASDAQ -25.57 SP500 -19.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 531/633 mln/1874 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 453/287 mln/2432

11:00 am : The Dow is down more than 200 points. Of its 30 components, only Home Depot (HD 18.22, +0.12) and Pfizer (PFE 20.69, +0.41) have put together a gain. Shares of HD have been helped by a better-than-expected new home sales report, while PFE shares have been boosted in response to news that one of the company's drugs has met both primary and secondary endpoints in a Phase 3 study.

At the other end of the spectrum, integrated oil plays Exxon Mobil (XOM 77.39, -2.41) and Chevron (CVX 97.80, -3.27) are both down by 3% or more. Their weakness has been exacerbated by a precipitous drop in oil prices, which were last quoted at $91 per barrel for a 4.6% loss. DJ30 -218.99 NASDAQ -36.13 SP500 -22.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 383/485 mln/1984 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 385/220 mln/2470

10:35 am : The majority of the commodity complex is sharply lower this morning with strength in the dollar index, which is 0.7% higher, acting as a key driver to this morning's selling pressure.

Crude oil moved sharply lower earlier this morning following news that the IEA would release additional oil into the market. More specifically, the IEA said it would release 60 million barrels, which would by distributed over 30 days at two million barrels per day. As a results, crude oil futures (continuous contract), fell below the $90 level to session lows of $89.69/barrel. In current activity, crude is 4.8% lower at $90.79/barrel.

Natural gas has been showing much smaller losses this morning compared to the rest of the energy complex (crude -%, heating oil, RBOB - %). Natural gas fell to session lows of $4.25/MMBtu about 20 minutes before the inventory data was released and was trading right at the low just before the release. Following the data, which showed a build of 98 bcf versus consensus of a build of approx. 90 bcf, natural gas fell sharply to new session lows of $4.17/MMBtu and is now down 3.2% at $4.18/MMBtu.

Precious metals are down sharply as well with silver showing steeper losses than gold. Gold futures fell as low as $1518.30 and are currently trading 2.0% lower at $1522.20/oz. Silver is down 4.0% at $35.26/oz.

Grain markets opened sharply lower a few minutes ago with corn quickly falling 30 cents, the exchange limit, to $6.20/bu. Corn is now 3.6% lower at $6.27/bu. Wheat declined 31 cents (or -4.3) to $6.44/bu.DJ30 -211.15 NASDAQ -30.29 SP500 -20.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 413/324.4 mln/1943 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 382/154.6 mln/2440

10:05 am : Another dose of data was just posted. New home sales for May slipped by about 2% month over month to an annualized rate of 319,000 units, which is greater than the pace of 305,000 units that had been anticipated among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Overall, stocks have have had no real reaction to the news. As such, the major equity averages remain at their morning lows. However, shares of homebuilder Lennar (LEN 18.41, +0.31) have managed to hold on to a heady gain in the face of broad market weakness. The stock's strength stems more from a better-than-expected earnings report than the new home sales numbers that were just posted. DJ30 -190.38 NASDAQ -38.04 SP500 -19.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 345/146 mln/1930 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 345/81 mln/2417

09:45 am : All three major equity averages are down in excess of 1% this morning. The retreat has been broad based, but natural resource plays like energy stocks (-2.7%) and materials stocks (-2.3%) have been hit especially hard after they had outperformed earlier this week. Weakness among energy and basic materials stocks has been exacerbated by sharply lower commodities, which are collectively down 2.3%, according the CRB Commodity Index.

Commodities certainly haven't been helped by the dollar's rally to a 0.8% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies. Along with the greenback, Treasuries are one of the only other asset classes attracting buying interest. Buying in the benchmark 10-year Note has its yield headed back near 2.90%.DJ30 -167.75 NASDAQ -36.72 SP500 -18.61 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 313/1889 NYSE Adv/Dec 354/2363

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.50. Sellers have made their presence known this morning. Their efforts have cut down commodities and put pressure on stocks ahead of this session's open. Weakness comes amid ongoing concerns related to the economic recovery after yesterday's announcement that the Fed cut its forecast for economic growth and raised its forecast for unemployment. That said, the latest weekly initial jobless claims count proved surprisingly high. Still on today's calendar are the latest new home sales numbers; they are due at 10:00 AM ET. Economic concerns are are also evident in Europe, where the latest PMI installments proved disappointing. These macro themes have overshadowed the latest round of earnings results, which featured upside surprises from Discover Financial (DFS), Red Hat (RHT), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) and Lennar (LEN). Phillips-Van Heusen (PVH) and Nissan Motor (NSANY) both issued optimistic forecasts.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -15.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -22.50. A concerted selling effort has cut commodity prices this morning. Specifically, crude oil prices are down 4.6% to a new multi-month low near $91 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade. Natural gas prices are down a more moderate 0.5% to $4.29 per MMBtu. Among precious metals, gold prices have dropped 1.9% to $1524.50 per ounce while silver prices have been slashed to $35.50 per ounce for a 3.4% loss. Weakness in the commodity complex has likely been exacerbated by a stronger dollar, which has rallied to a 0.8% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies. Also in the periphery is news that the IEA is holding an emergency meeting.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.50. Stock futures have slipped some more. Their latest leg lower comes in response to some disappointing jobless claims numbers. Initial jobless claims for the week ended June 18 totaled 429,000, which is greater than the 413,000 initial claims that had been broadly expected. The latest claims tally is also greater than the upwardly revised count of 420,000 that was recorded for the prior week. Continuing claims ticked up to almost 3.70 million from 3.68 million in the prior week.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.50. Uninspiring commentary from Fed Chairman Bernanke led to a late slide in the prior session that left stocks to settle at their lows. The underpinning pressure has carried over into this morning's premarket trade. In turn, stock futures point to a markedly lower start for today's trade. The negative bias has been partly exacerbated because of renewed weakness abroad, where Europe's major bourses are mostly down 1% or more after some rather displeasing PMI reports were posted. Overnight action in Asia saw the Nikkei and Hang Seng move lower, but China's Shanghai Composite climbed more than 1%. In corporate news, Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Lennar (LEN), Rite Aid (RAD), and Red Hat (RHT) all reported upside earnings surprises for the latest quarter. All of their shares are up nicely in premarket trade. ConAgra (CAG) shares are down after the company's earnings came short of the consensus estimate, however. Pharmaceutical giants Pfizer (PFE) and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) have garnered strong buying interest ahead of the open in response to the pair's success in meeting primary and secondary endpoints in a Phase 3 study. Weekly initial jobless claims figures and monthly new home sales numbers highlight today's economic calendar. They are expected at 8:30 AM ET and 10:00 AM ET, respectively.

06:36 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.00.

06:36 am : Nikkei...9596.74...-32.70...-0.30%. Hang Seng...21759.14...-100.80...-0.50%.

06:36 am : FTSE...5724.54...-48.50...-0.80%. DAX...7203.04...-75.20...-1.00%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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