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 Post subject: June 22nd Weds 2011 Emini TF (No Trades Personal Day Off)
PostPosted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 8:11 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Quote:
No trades today even though it was FOMC Announcement day. It's a trading day I usually trade to try to catch an early morning strong directional price action prior to the rate announcement but decided today would be a good day to just study the price action...rest and relax considering I've already exceeded my profit goals for the trading month after yesterday's big profitable trading day.

Trade Performance for Today: +0.00 points or $0.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=91&t=909.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image Bloomberg (YouTube Video) - U.S. Stocks Fall as Fed Cuts Economic Growth Forecast

June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks fell, halting a four-day rally, after the Federal Reserve lowered its forecast for economic growth and said it plans to finish its $600 billion bond-purchase program this month as scheduled.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks End Lower On Bernanke Bummer
Attachment:
062211-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

Ben Rooney June 22, 2011: 4:43 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks fell Wednesday after the Federal Reserve issued a dour assessment of the economy but gave no indication that additional stimulus measures are in the works.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 80 points, or 0.6%, to 12,109. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost 8 points, or 0.6%, to 1,287. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) tumbled 18 points, or 0.7%, to 2,669.

Stocks had drifted between small gains and losses throughout the day before the selling picked up steam in the final hour of trading.

Shares of Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) fell 2.5%, making it the worst performer on the Dow. But the selling was broad based, with only three stocks in the blue-chip index ending in the black.

In a widely expected move, the Fed held its benchmark interest rate near zero percent, saying the economic recovery has been weaker than expected.

Echoing past statements, the Fed said economic growth remains tepid enough to justify "exceptionally low" interest rates for an "extended period" of time.

"There was was no 'new news' in the Fed's statement today," said Nigel Gault, an economist IHS Global Insight.

How conservative bulls can use options - StockTwits

The central bank also repeated that its $600 billion stimulus program will end next week, as scheduled. It will continue to use interest earned on its $2.6 trillion portfolio of securities to buy long-term Treasuries.

In his post-statement press conference, Bernanke said the recent economic slowdown is largely due to temporary factors such as supply disruptions from the earthquake in Japan.

But he acknowledged that more long-term problems may be behind the sluggish growth this year.

"We don't have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting," Bernanke said.

Given the uncertain outlook, Bernanke said the Fed will not act for "at least" another two or three meetings, suggesting that rates will remain low until November.

"It depends on how the economy and economic outlook changes," he added.

Separately, the Fed issued an update to its economic projections. The bankers lowered their target for economic growth and raised their forecast for the unemployment rate.

"Overall, the tenor of today's policy statement and Bernanke's words would best be described as mixed and uncertain," said Guy LeBas, a strategist at Janney Capital Markets. "The markets' response was similarly mixed."

Stocks rose Tuesday, ahead of a key confidence vote in Greece, that boosted the likelihood that the country will be able to secure a bailout package and avert a default.

Companies: FedEx (FDX, Fortune 500) reported earnings and sales that topped forecasts, and hiked its outlook. That sent shares of the shipping company up 3%. Shares of rival UPS (UPS, Fortune 500) edged up nearly 1%.

Shares of Adobe Systems (ADBE) slumped more than 6%. The software maker posted a 54% jump in second-quarter profit after the market close Tuesday, but issued a revenue outlook that fell short of expectations.

Carmax (KMX, Fortune 500) reported first-quarter earnings that widely beat expectations, sending shares of the company 7.5% higher.

Royal Phillips Electronics (PHG) warned that second-quarter profit would drop sharply and miss expectations. U.S.-listed shares of the electronics maker tumbled 10%.

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY, Fortune 500) will report quarterly results after the market close Wednesday. The home decor retailer is expected to report earnings of 62 cents a share.

Video streaming website Hulu LLC is considering putting itself up for sale, according to news reports that cite people familiar with the situation.

* Greece? The Fed? Earnings are the real story

World markets: European stocks lost ground. France's CAC 40 dropped and the DAX in Germany both lost 0.1% and Britain's FTSE 100 was little changed.

Asian markets ended higher. The Shanghai Composite inched up 0.1%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong ended barely above breakeven, and Japan's Nikkei jumped 1.8%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained against the British pound, but edged lower versus the euro and Japanese yen.

Oil for August delivery gained $1.24, or 1.3%, to $95.41 a barrel.

Motorist group AAA released a forecast saying more Americans are staying home for the 4th of July weekend compared to last year -- with 39 million Americans expected to travel 50 miles or more from home between Thursday, June 30 and Monday, July 4. That's down 2.5% from last year, when 40 million Americans celebrated the long weekend away from home.

Gold futures for August delivery added $8 to $1,554.40 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury held steady, with the yield unchanged from Tuesday at 2.99%.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:25 pm : The major market averages had hugged the neutral line for most of the session, but after Fed Chairman Bernanke completed a press conference that featured reduced GDP forecast stocks rolled over to log sizable losses.

Stocks were locked into a sideways drift for most of this morning and early afternoon. Participants were generally uninspired by the latest update from Greece -- that the country's prime minister was able to keep his position after a no-confidence vote was held last evening. No updates on the implementation of new austerity measures have been made available, however.

Range bound trade was also the result of uncertainty ahead of the latest FOMC Policy Statement, which indicated that members unanimously voted to keep the fed funds target between 0.00% to 0.25% and that exceptionally low levels are expected for an extended period of time. It was also stated that the Fed still plans to complete its purchase of $600 billion of longer-term Treasuries by the end of this month.

Trade remained reserved in the wake of the statement. Action was also subdued during Fed Chairman Bernanke's press conference, during which he announced that the Fed now believes 2011 GDP will range from 2.7% to 2.9%, down from the range of 3.1% to 3.3% that was announced in April. Additionally, unemployment for 2011 is now expected to range from 8.6% to 8.9%, up from the range of 8.4% to 8.7%. Core PCE inflation for 2011 is now expected to range from 1.5% to 1.8%, up from the range of 1.3% of 1.6% that had been forecasted before.

Stocks didn't react immediately to the Fed's revisions. Rather, participants waited until the final hour of the session to start applying pressure. The ensuing selling effort was steady and left stocks to settle at session lows.

Tech stocks and consumer discretionary stocks collectively made up the day's worst performers. Both sectors fell 0.8%. Financials didn't fare much better; they fell 0.7%. Not even energy stocks or basic materials plays were able to hold their gains. Instead, both sectors fell 0.4%.

FedEx (FDX 91.44, +2.31) eased off of its session high, but still settled with a heady gain. The stock's strength was underpinned by a better-than-expected earnings report. CarMax (KMX 32.66, +2.14) and Jabil Circuit (JBL 19.45, +0.60) also outperformed after their earnings reports proved pleasing. Adobe Systems (ADBE 30.01, -2.00) had an upside surprise of its own, but that was overshadowed by the company's commentary about weak demand in emerging markets.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (-0.8%), Tech (-0.8%), Financials (-0.7%), Consumer Staples (-0.7%), Utilities (-0.7%), Health Care (-0.6%), Industrials (-0.6%), Telecom (-0.5%), Energy (-0.4%), Materials (-0.4%)DJ30 -80.34 NASDAQ -18.07 NQ100 -0.7% R2K -0.8% SP400 -0.5% SP500 -8.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 847/1.62 bln/1672 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1240/856 mln/1759

3:30 pm : Most of the more closely tracked commodities traded with strength this session, although natural gas prices surrendered an early gain to close pit trade with a 1.6% loss at $4.302 per MMBtu. Crude oil prices bounced to $95.41 per barrel for a 1.3% gain with help from a bullish inventory report.

As for precious metals, gold prices gained 0.5% to close at $1553.50 per ounce, but silver turned a fractional loss in the early going into an even more impressive 0.9% gain to close at $36.70 per ounce. The price of both precious metals has pulled back following the close of pit trade, however. DJ30 -30.35 NASDAQ -5.12 SP500 -2.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1052/1.21 bln/1443 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1546/534 mln/1431

3:00 pm : A recent retreat by stocks into the red has left the major market averages to trade at afternoon lows. Stocks are still above their worst levels of the day, though.

The pullback by the equity market comes amid an upturn by the dollar, which had spent this morning and early afternoon trading flat against a basket of major foreign currencies. The greenback is now up 0.2% against that basket.

Meanwhile, Treasuries have made an upward turn. The move has put the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note back near 3.00%. DJ30 -35.87 NASDAQ -5.62 SP500 -3.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1023/1.12 bln/1457 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1520/495 mln/1456

2:30 pm : The major equity averages continue to chop along near the neutral line. They are essentially unfazed by what Fed Chairman Bernanke has stated in his press conference. According to Bernanke, GDP for 2011 is now expected to range from 2.7% to 2.9%, which is down from the range of 3.1% to 3.3% that was announced in April. The cut to the Fed's GDP forecast comes after the minutes from the latest FOMC policy statement were posted about two hours ago. In that statement, the Fed made note that it expected the pace of the still sluggish economic recovery to pick up in coming months.

Bernanke's speech has also indicated that 2011 unemployment is now expected to range from 8.6% to 8.9%, up from the range of 8.4% to 8.7%. Core PCE inflation for 2011 is now expected to range from 1.5% to 1.8%, up from the range of 1.3% of 1.6% that had been forecasted before. DJ30 -6.24 NASDAQ +2.06 SP500 +0.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1214/1.03 bln/1254 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1748/445 mln/1199

2:00 pm : Stocks have made a modest move up from the flat line. Overall gains remain narrow, though.

Energy stocks have successfully stretched to fresh session highs. The sector now sports a 0.7% gain, which has been helped by a run up in oil prices. Oil was last quoted with a 1.5% gain at $95.55 per barrel. Oil services plays like National Oilwell Varco (NOV 73.45, +1.73) and Baker Hughes (BHI 71.76, +1.12) are leading the sector. DJ30 +14.57 NASDAQ +5.09 SP500 +2.11 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1297/1147 NYSE Adv/Dec 1891/1054

1:30 pm : The Dollar Index has been flat for the entire session. Underlying action has been more interesting, though. Specifically, the greenback is down by about 0.2% against the euro, which was last quoted at $1.440, but up 0.7% against the sterling pound, which was last quoted at $1.611. The dollar is unchanged against the yen, which was recently priced at 80.22 yen per dollar.

Action, or inaction, in the dollar comes after the FOMC opted to keep its target fed funds rate at 0.00% to 0.25%, and expressed its expectation for exceptionally low interest rate levels for an extended period of time. The Fed also continues to expect that the moderate pace of the economic recovery will pick up in coming months. DJ30 +5.30 NASDAQ +3.14 SP500 +1.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1274/845 mln/1164 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1888/360 mln/1048

1:00 pm : The stock market has wavered moderately in the wake of the latest FOMC Policy Statement, but has generally held to the neutral line.

Overall action has been generally lackluster all session. Traders were given few cues from overseas markets, which seemed to shrug off the unsurprising victory of Greece's prime minister in a no-confidence vote. Participants were also exercising caution ahead of the Fed's latest commentary.

The Fed continues believe that the economic recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, but the rate will pick up over coming quarters. Even though the Fed acknowledged that the current pace is slower than what had been expected, the near-term forecast was not cut, as some had speculated.

Given low resource utilization rates and a subdued outlook for inflation, the FOMC left the federal funds target rate at 0.00% to 0.25%, and is expected to keep the target at exceptionally low levels for an extended period, as it has stated so many times before.

With regard to the Fed's second quantitative easing effort, the Fed is still planning to complete its purchase of $600 billion of longer-term Treasuries by the end of this month.

Stocks had only a muted response to the statement. In turn, they continue to chop along the neutral line. The dollar hasn't done much either, so it too continues to trade flat.

Although the broad market is mired near the unchanged mark, FedEx (FDX 92.09, +2.96) shares have been fired up in response to a stronger-than-expected quarterly report. In contrast, negative commentary from Adobe Systems (ADBE 30.34, -1.67) has overshadowed its upside earnings surprise, prompting the stock to drop to a new 2011 low.

Natural resource plays are finding favor for the second straight session. Both sectors are up 0.5%, which pales in comparison with the 2% advances booked yesterday, but the move is enough to make them today's top performers. DJ30 -1.74 NASDAQ +1.52 SP500 +1.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1205/775 mln/1210 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1821/325 mln/1102

12:30 pm : The latest FOMC Policy Statement was just posted. According to the statement, the Fed believes that the economic recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, though somewhat more slowly than the FOMC had expected. However, the FOMC expects that the pace of the recovery will pick up over coming quarters. They did not actually trim the forecast, as some had speculated.

Additionally, the FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period of time. As such, the FOMC has kept its target rate at 0.00% to 0.25%. The Fed is still planning to complete its purchase of $600 billion of longer-term Treasuries by the end of this month.

Neither the stock market nor the dollar has shown much of a reaction to the announcement. That has left both to trade flat. DJ30 -17.29 NASDAQ -2.12 SP500 -0.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1122/694 mln/1279 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1703/290 mln/1200

12:00 pm : A better-than-expected earnings report from FedEx (FDX 91.61, +2.48) has the stock testing its monthly high. The strength of its report has helped bolster buying interest in the rest of the transportation space. In turn, the Dow Jones Transportation Index is up an enviable 0.7%.

Adobe Systems (ADBE 30.06, -1.95) posted its own upside earnings surprise for the latest quarter, but the company's commentary regarding weaker-than-expected demand in some international and emerging markets was viewed as a negative. The stock has dropped to a new 2011 low in response. DJ30 -1.74 NASDAQ +0.18 SP500 +0.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 590/599 mln/1173 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1821/251 mln/1078

11:30 am : The stock market continues to sit narrowly above the neutral line. The cautious positioning comes as participants prepare for the latest FOMC Policy Statement, which is expected to be posted in an hour. The statement carries added importance because of the upcoming expiration of the Fed's second quantitative easing effort, not to mention the ongoing macro headwinds that continue to stymie the pace of the economic recovery.DJ30 +8.67 NASDAQ +2.67 SP500 +1.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1193/505 mln/1142 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1876/215 mln/990

11:00 am : A recent pickup in buying interest has lifted the major stock averages to session highs. However, overall gains remain very modest in scope.

Financials remain a primary source of support. The sector is sporting a gain of 0.6%, which has been matched only by the energy sector. Energy stocks achieved strong gains in the prior session despite lower oil prices. Oil prices are up solidly to almost $95 per barrel today. DJ30 +12.45 NASDAQ +2.23 SP500 +2.78 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1117/1190 NYSE Adv/Dec 1820/1017

10:35 am : At the opening of pit trading, crude oil futures began to trend upwards from around the $93.50 area to current session highs of $95.09/barrel. Ahead of today's inventory data, crude was just below the $95 level. Following the data, which showed a draw of 1.71 million versus the consensus of 1.8 million, crude ticked to new session highs of $95.38/barrel and is now 1.2% higher at $95.28/barrel.

Meanwhile, natural gas futures began to sell-off ahead of the open, falling just below yesterday's closing levels. It managed to move back into positive territory over the next hour, but lost steam again and is currently down 0.8% at $4.35/MMBtu.

Gold and silver have been on a rather steady uptrend this morning after showing some losses in the overnight session. Gold has been in positive territory for the past hour and 45 minutes and is now up 0.7% at $1557.20/oz. Silver showed sharper losses overnight, but has erased those along with gold and is now 0.7% higher at $36.62/oz.DJ30 -22.44 NASDAQ -6.05 SP500 -1.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 877/211.5 mln/1384 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1482/94.7 mln/1217

10:00 am : Financials have made a nice bounce in recent trade. The sector is now up 0.3%, which is only a modest gain, but it is enough to make financials one of the top performing groups this morning. The group is currently led by diversified financial service plays like Bank of America (BAC 10.90, +0.07) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 41.33, +0.43).

Meanwhile, utilities stocks are cutting their losses. The sector had fallen to a loss of almost 1% in the first few minutes of the session, but it is now down a much more tame 0.4% for the day. DJ30 -11.99 NASDAQ -3.20 SP500 +0.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 829/78 mln/1363 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1441/47 mln/1228

09:45 am : The major market avrerages are down with narrow losses in the opening minutes of trade. Tech, which is the largest sector by market weight, is a drag after it offered leadership in the prior session; the sector is currently down 0.2%.

Utilities stocks are actually in the worst shape this morning. As a group, utilities plays are down 0.8%. Electric utilities like Duke Energy (DUK 18.64, -0.16) and American Electric (AEP 37.57, -0.31) have been the heaviest drags on the sector. DJ30 -20.96 NASDAQ -2.85 SP500 -1.10 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 797/1344 NYSE Adv/Dec 1311/1331

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.00. A flat to slightly lower open is suggested by broad market stock futures. The tepid tone comes as markets abroad cool after they had staged a strong rally in the prior session. There is also a sense of caution about what will be included in the latest FOMC Policy Statement (12:30 PM ET) with the approaching expiration of the Fed's second quantitative easing effort, ongoing macro headwinds, and eurozone fiscal challenges amid the financial struggles of peripheral countries like Greece. With regard to Greece, the country's prime minister won a no-confidence vote last evening, as had been expected. As for other headlines, a handful of earnings reports have been posted since the prior session's close. Most of them, including FedEx (FDX), Jabil Circuit (JBL), and Adobe (ADBE), have featured upside surprises, but the reaction among premarket participants has been somewhat mixed.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.50. Commodities are mixed this morning. Among those that are most widely watched, crude oil was last quoted with a 0.3% loss at $93.90 per ounce. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are up 0.5% to $4.41 per MMBtu. Among precious metals, gold prices are up 0.3% to just above $1550 per ounce, but silver is down fractionally to $36.36 per ounce. Overall action in the space has the CRB Commodity Index down 0.2%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.50. Trade in Europe is mixed following news that Greece's prime minister passed a no-confidence vote last evening. Meanwhile, the euro is essentially flat against the greenback, but the sterling pound is down 0.7% to $1.611 in the wake of news that the Bank of England will keep its target rate at 0.5% and maintain an asset purchase plan of 200 billion British pounds. Britain's FTSE is currently fractionally lower. Capita Group is in the worst shape, but banking plays like Barclays (BCS) and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) have been heavy drags after their shares were downgraded by analysts at HSBC. Lloyds Group (LYG) was also downgraded, but the stock has managed to muster a modest gain. France's CAC is currently off by 0.2%. Schneider Electric and Carrefour have weighed most on action, but Renault has been a strong source of support. In Germany, the DAX is currently unchanged. Merck KGAA and Metro AG are the two worst performers by percent lost, while Deutsche Post and BMW are the two top performers by percent gained. As for data, eurozone new industrial orders increased by 0.7% during April after they had fallen by an upwardly revised 1.5% in the prior month.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei rallied to a 1.8% gain as more than 95% of its components advanced. CSK and Softbank were among the top performers. Shinsei Bank and Tokyo Gas were on the short list of declining issues. Hong Kong's Hang Seng settled unchanged for its latest session. General weakness among banks kept the average mired near the neutral line. In contrast, bank stocks helped prop up mainland China's Shanghai Composite in overnight trade. The Composite closed with a 0.1% gain.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.50. Stock futures are flat to slightly lower after the broad market rallied in the prior session to a 1% gain. The coolness comes after last night's news that Greece's prime minister won a no-confidence vote, as had been generally expected. Mixed action among the major equity averages abroad has also made for a relatively muddled backdrop to premarket trade. However, corporate news flow has picked up considerably since the prior session's close. It has been mostly positive in that FedEx (FDX), Jabil Circuit (JBL), Adobe Systems (ADBE), and CarMax (KMX) all recently reported quarterly earnings results that exceeded the consensus forecast. Weekly oil inventory data are due at 10:30 AM ET, but today's calendar is highlighted by the latest FOMC statement, which will be posted at 12:30 PM ET.

06:30 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.00.

06:30 am : Nikkei...9629.43...+169.80...+1.80%. Hang Seng...21859.97...+9.40...0.00.

06:30 am : FTSE...5742.56...-32.80...-0.60%. DAX...7273.42...-12.10...-0.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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