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 Post subject: June 16th Thurs 2011 Emini TF (No Trades Personal Day Off)
PostPosted: Fri Jun 17, 2011 8:51 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Quote:
No trades today because it was a schedule personal day off and I will take it easy for the remainder of the week although I may do a few trades on Friday. I'll return to normal trading Monday June 20th.

Trade Performance for Today: +0.00 points or $0.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=91&t=902.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Dow Pushes Higher On Stronger Reports
Attachment:
061611-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png
061611-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png [ 518.53 KiB | Viewed 257 times ]

click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer June 16, 2011: 5:10 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks closed mixed on Thursday as weakness in the tech sector countered stronger-than-expected reports on the housing market and unemployment.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 64 points, or 0.5%, to 11,962. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 2 points, or 0.2%, to 1,268; and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost 8 points, or 0.3%, to 2,624.

Stocks see-sawed throughout the day, with the Dow rising as much as 90 points and falling as much as 20 points. Technology shares dragged the broader market lower, with Netflix (NFLX) falling 3%, while Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500), Qualcomm (QCOM, Fortune 500) and Nvidia (NVDA) dropped 2% or more.

Deepening worries about Greece's debt continue to keep investors on their toes until a bailout for the country is agreed upon by eurozone officials.

As protesters continued to rally against austerity measures Thursday, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou reportedly said he will introduce a new government and take a vote of confidence in Parliament.

Stocks were in danger of extending the losses from Wednesday, when the Dow fell nearly 180 points on gloomy manufacturing data and news that eurozone officials failed to agree on a rescue plan for Greece.

The losses have been part of a steady weakening in U.S. stocks since the start of May, with the major indexes on track to decline for a seventh straight week. The S&P is within 11 points of going negative for 2011. The index opened the year at 1,257.64.

"Anyone who is selling stock at these levels anticipates a double-dip[recession]," said Jack Ablin, chief investment strategist with Harris Private Bank.

Economy: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia manufacturing survey unexpectedly declined to a reading of minus 7.7 in June while economists had forecasted a reading of plus 7, according to Briefing.com

But with the exception of the Philly Fed survey, investors did have several better-than-expected economic data to mull over -- with initial unemployment claims from the Labor Department as well as May housing starts and building permits from the Commerce Department both coming in stronger than expected.

Traders urged caution.

"While the economic data was better than expected, growth remains muted and there's more negative than positive sentiment in the market," said Stephen Carl, head trader with Williams Capital.

The government reported that jobless claims slipped to 414,000 last week, down 16,000 from the prior week. Economists had expected a more modest decline in weekly claims to 421,000.

Housing starts jumped 3.5% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000. They were forecast to have risen to a 540,000 annual rate in May, from 523,000 in April.

Building permits also beat expectations, rising 8.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 612,000 in May, from the prior month's rate of 563,000. Economists had expected permits to edge lower to a 548,000 annual rate.

* The pain of Greece's crisis

World markets: European stocks ended modestly lower. Britain's FTSE 100 slumped 0.7%, the DAX in Germany fell 0.1% and France's CAC 40 dropped 0.4%.

Asian markets slumped following Wednesday's U.S. sell-off. The Shanghai Composite slid 1.5%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong dipped 1.8% and Japan's Nikkei lost 1.7%.

Companies: Natural-gas pipeline company Energy Transfer Equity (ETE, Fortune 500) will buy Southern Union (SUG) for $7.9 billion. The news sent shares of Southern Union up 18%.

Pandora (P) shares plunged 23% the day after the company's IPO after an analyst with BTIG Research put a "sell" rating on the stock with a $5.50 price target.

Supermarket chain owner Kroger (KR, Fortune 500) said quarterly earnings rose to 70 cents a share, beating analysts' expectations for 64 cents per share. Shares were up 4.5%, making it the best performer on the S&P 500.

* Research in Motion Earnings Play - StockTwits

Shares of BlackBerry maker Research in Motion (RIMM) plunged 15% in after-market action. RIM cut its full-year outlook and said it will begin cutting jobs.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar strengthened against the euro and the British pound, but slumped versus the Japanese yen.

Oil for July delivery rose 14 cents to $94.95 a barrel, after dropping more than 4% on Wednesday and hitting the lowest level since February.

Gold futures for August delivery $3.30 to $1,529.90 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 2.94% from 2.97% late Wednesday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks faltered after fighting through premarket selling pressure before a late rebound effort made for a mixed finish.

The mood among premarket participants this morning was hurt by ongoing concerns related to the fiscal, social, and political troubles of Greece. The same themes weighed heavily on Europe's major bourses, which were all down 1% or more before eventually improving their position in the later part of the session.

The tone ahead of the open turned positive with the release of some encouraging data, though. The latest initial jobless claims tally came in at 414,000, which is less than the 421,000 initial claims that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. It was the first time in several weeks that the count was actually less than what had been widely expected.

There was also positive news from the downtrodden housing industry. According to data, housing starts during May hit an annualized rate of 560,000, while building permits came in at a clip of 612,000. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for a rate of 540,000 housing starts and 548,000 building permits.

Buying interest was tested shortly after the open by an ugly Philadelphia Fed Survey. The Survey slumped to -7.7 in June, after it had been at 3.9 in the prior month. Many economists had expected that the Survey would improve to 7.0.

Some knee-jerk selling followed the release of the Philly Survey, but stocks quickly bounced back. However, the major averages struggled to extend the move. The failure to attract additional buying interest made stocks susceptible to further selling interest, which took the broad market to a new three-month intraday low before buyers started to step back in.

Leadership was either lacking or inconsistent throughout the session. Financials had attempted to stage a couple of bounces after underperforming in each of the past two sessions before it finished with a 0.5% gain. Utilities and consumer staples, both of which are without much market weight, tied for the strongest gains of any major sector by advancing 0.8%. Materials stocks fell 0.9% to finish the day as the worst performing sector.

Concerns about the implications of Greece's precarious situation on the rest of the eurozone weighed on the euro this morning. That helped drive the Dollar Index to its best level in about three. The dollar gave up its gain as the session progressed and eventually finished the day with a 0.1% loss against a basket of major foreign currencies.

Even though the tone of trade today was much improved from that of the prior session, volatility among stocks sent the Volatility Index up to its highest level in about three months.

Increased volatility helped keep traders interested in Treasuries. Buying therein took the yield on the 2-year Note to a record low near 0.30% this morning. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Note hit a multi-month low near about 2.90% in afternoon action.

Advancing Sectors: Utilities +0.8%, Consumer staples +0.8%, Financials +0.6%, Energy +0.3%, Industrials +0.3%, Telecom +0.2%, Health Care +0.2%
Declining Sectors: Consumer discretionary -0.2%, Tech -0.3%, Materials -0.9%DJ30 +64.25 NASDAQ -7.76 NQ100 -0.4% R2K +0.3% SP400 -0.1% SP500 +2.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1299/1.97 bln/1171 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1367/1.05 bln/1637

3:30 pm : It was a substantially quieter day in the commodities markets as participants took a wait-and-see approach to the events unfolding in Greece. August gold finished higher by 0.3% to $1529.90 per ounce, while July silver added 0.3% to close at $35.50 per ounce. Both metals spent the session chopping around the flat line as they reacted to the fluctuations in the dollar/euro.

Trade in July crude oil, which closed higher by 0.2% to $94.95 per barrel, was similar to that of the precious metals, as traders balanced this morning's econ data with events going on in Europe and movement in the euro/dollar. July natural gas fell 3.6% to close at $4.42 per MMBtu. This morning's inventory data, which was more-or-less inline with expectations acted as the catalyst for today's move to the downside. DJ30 +42.87 NASDAQ -16.58 SP500 -1.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1183/1.6 bln/1252 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1180/714.9 mln/1818

3:00 pm : Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 recently stretched their afternoon slide to fresh session lows. While the tech-rich Nasdaq is down close to 1%, the broad-based S&P 500 has suffered only a relatively modest loss.

Utilities (+0.6%) and consumer staples stocks (+0.6%), both defensive in nature, are helping to limit the S&P 500's move lower. However, their efforts are being undermined by pronounced weakness among materials stocks, which are down a relatively dramatic 1.6%.

Renewed weakness among stocks has caused the Volatility Index, often euphemistically labeled the Fear Gauge, to spike about 15% to a two-month high above 24. DJ30 +18.92 NASDAQ -25.03 SP500 -3.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1044/1.32 bln/1380 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1027/588 mln/1963

2:30 pm : Weakness among tech stocks has weighed heavily on the Nasdaq, which is down with a marked loss so that it is underperforming its counterparts. Tech stocks are down 0.5%, as a group. Novellus (NVLS 33.59, -1.75), F5 Networks (FFIV 99.44, -4.17), and NVIDIA (NVDA 16.22, -0.55) are among the worst performers in the space. However, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ ) has been a source of support for the tech sector. The blue chip has also helped prop up price-weighted the Dow.DJ30 +23.61 NASDAQ -15.22 SP500 -2.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1142/1.20 bln/1262 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1188/530 mln/1798

2:00 pm : A recent bout of selling pressure has caused stocks to roll over so that both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are in the red. The Dow is still clinging to a very modest gain.

No headline or announcement has been made that can account for the sudden turn in sentiment. Most likely, though, the downturn is owed to the interest among participants to exit their positions since stocks have struggled to add to their gains today. Such action suggests that traders are still inclined to sell into the stock market's downward, rather than try to step in with a firm bid. DJ30 +23.95 NASDAQ -11.14 SP500 -1.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1192/1.08 bln/1215 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1222/480 mln/1755

1:30 pm : Although stocks continue to chop along with varied gains, action has turned rather dull since this morning. Closer to the open participants were dealing with a deluge of headlines related to data and the precarious situation facing Greece. The flow of news has since dried up, leaving stocks to trade largely with their own volition.DJ30 +60.43 NASDAQ +2.32 SP500 +3.73 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1493/928 NYSE Adv/Dec 1668/1297

1:00 pm : The mood ahead of the open had been decidedly negative as weakness abroad was renewed amid ongoing concerns related to troubles surrounding Greece, but a few pieces of strong data have helped stocks put together some gains.

Sharp overnight losses in Asia were matched this morning in Europe. That made for a negative backdrop to trade ahead of the open. However, bias improved with the release of weekly initial jobless claims, which fell more than expected to 414,000.

A surprisingly strong improvement in housing starts and building permits for May also helped bolster buying interest. Starts hit an annualized rate of 560,000 while permits hit a clip of 612,000. That news has been particularly helpful to home improvement plays like Dow component Home Depot (HD 34.67, +0.79).

Not all data were strong, however. After all, the Philadelphia Fed Survey for June unexpectedly fell to -7.7 in the face of calls for improvement from the prior month. The Survey was released shortly after the open and was followed by some knee-jerk selling activity, but stocks were quick to recover.

Overall action has been generally choppy. Financials have offered leadership from time to time, but the sector has struggled to sustain gains. Still, it is presently up 0.4%, which makes it one of the better performers.

Consumer staples stocks currently make up the top performing sector. Collectively, they are up 0.8%. In contrast, materials stocks are down 0.3% as a group; steel stocks have weighed heavily on the space.

The Dollar Index had been up to its best level in about three weeks earlier this morning, but it has since drifted back to the flat line. Most of the greenback's gain this morning came against the euro, which has been grappling with the fiscal challenges facing Greece and other countries in the eurozone periphery.

Even though stocks are higher today, Treasuries continue to attract buying interest. Strength in the space drove down the yield on the 2-year Note to a record low near 0.30% this morning. Its yield is now closer to 0.38%. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is down to a multi-month low of about 2.93%. DJ30 +61.83 NASDAQ +3.13 SP500 +3.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1533/885 mln/852 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1696/395 mln/1254

12:30 pm : Strength in shares of Home Depot (HD 34.67, +0.79), American Express (AXP 48.24, +0.96), and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 34.90, +0.64) have helped the Dow take a nice lead over each of its primary counterparts, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. Strength in HD shares follows stronger-than-expected new home sales and building permits data. Shares of AXP come a day after the company reported further imrovement in its monthly card metrics. As for HPQ, its strength comes amid news that the company has filed suit against Oracle (ORCL 31.10, -0.06).DJ30 +90.40 NASDAQ +7.81 SP500 +7.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1606/799 mln/800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1920/364 mln/1034

12:00 pm : Materials stocks make up the only major sector to trade with a loss. As a group, materials plays are down 0.3%. Steel stocks continue to create a considerable drag; AK Steel (AKS 14.62, -0.52) and U.S. Steel (X 41.79, -0.74) are two of the worst performers in the basic materials space.DJ30 +63.99 NASDAQ +5.37 SP500 +4.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1554/690 mln/810 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1799/320 mln/1127

11:30 am : Despite choppy action during the course of the past hour, the stock market remains in positive territory with a solid gain. Meanwhile, the dollar has continued its pullback so that it now trades flat against a basket of major foreign currencies.

Even though the greenback has given up its gain for today, commodities haven't really shown much of a positive response. As a result, the CRB Commodity Index is down 0.4%.

Treasuries have managed to tick higher, however. The move has taken the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note down to a new multi-month low. DJ30 +84.73 NASDAQ +9.73 SP500 +8.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1601/600 mln/748 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1918/275 mln/1004

11:00 am : Stocks were hit with selling pressure in the minutes that followed the latest Philadelphia Fed Survey, but they have since battled back. The rebound effort has taken stocks to new session highs for solid gains.

Financials continue to offer leadership to the broader market. The sector is now up 0.8%. Bank of America (BAC 10.63, +0.13) is a top performer in the financial space after the stock traded at its 52-week low in the prior session. DJ30 +65.46 NASDAQ +7.54 SP500 +5.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1533/439 mln/766 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1818/207 mln/1064

10:35 am : Natural gas futures have been in the red since pit trading began and took another leg down ahead of this morning's inventory data, falling to a new session low of $4.54/MMBtu. Following the data, which showed a build of 69 bcf versus consensus which called for a build of ~70 bcf, natural gas saw little reactions; now trading 2.0% lower at $4.48/MMBtu.

Crude oil has been in positive territory for the vast majority of this morning's pit trading activity, but is back near the flat line. Crude fell to session lows of $94.32/barrel 20 minutes ahead of pit trading and is now down 0.2% at $94.60/barrel.

Precious metals sold off almost an hour ago, which pulled silver ~1.6% lower to new session lows of $35.16/oz, while gold fell 0.7% to $1522/oz. In current activity, gold is down 20 cents at $1526.00/oz., while silver is 0.3% lower at $35.30/oz.DJ30 +54.64 NASDAQ +5.24 SP500 +5.0 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1541/288.7/1250 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1346/142.1/950

10:05 am : The stock market has run into a sudden flurry of selling. The effort comes after the Philadelphia Fed Survey was revealed to have produced a score of -7.7 for June. It had been broadly expected to improve to 7.0 from 3.9 in the prior month.

None of the major sectors has managed to avoid the sell-off. Materials stocks are getting hit the hardest; they are now down 0.9%, collectively.

Treasuries have actually pulled back, too. Earlier today buying in the 2-year Note took its yield to a new record low of about 0.30%, but its yield now sits at 0.39%. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note stands at 2.96%. DJ30 +10.90 NASDAQ -3.84 SP500 -1.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1163/135 mln/1008 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1405/75 mln/1372

09:45 am : The broad market is up with a modest gain in the first few minutes of trade. Some volatility could be seen at the top of the hour, though. That's when the latest Philadelphia Fed Survey will be released.

Utilities are in the best shape this morning, as they sport a 0.8% gain. Financials are also solid. Their 0.5% gain comes after the sector suffered a 2% loss in the prior session and even had lagged in the day before.

Tech stocks are relatively weak, though. The sector is currently stuck at the flat line. DJ30 +38.03 NASDAQ -1.44 SP500 +2.93 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1180/924 NYSE Adv/Dec 1622/1058

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.40. Pleasing housing start and building permit data, along with a smaller-than-expected weekly jobless claim count, have helped stock futures rally out of the red. Still, concerns related to the tenuous fiscal, social, and political conditions facing Greece haven't gone away. In turn, many overseas markets have extended their downward trend. Less risky assets also remain in favor. As such, the yield on the 2-year Note has fallen to a record low near 0.3%. The dollar has surrendered some of its morning gain, though. Relative to a basket of major foreign currencies, it is now up just 0.2%, which is less than half of what it had sported earlier this morning. Still to come this morning is the latest Philadelphia Fed Survey (10:00 AM ET). Corporate news remains minimal.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.90. Domestic stock futures continue to improve their position. In fact, they now trade with a narrow lead over fair value. However, concern over the tenuous fiscal, social, and political conditions in Greece has dragged down Europe's major bourses for another day of deep losses. As such, the EuroStoxx 50 is down 0.7%. Earlier it was down more than 1%, which put it at its lowest level in nearly three months. Germany's DAX is currently down 0.8%. Automakers Daimler AG and BMW have managed to muster gains, though. Man SE is the only other name in the German bourse that has worked its way into positive territory. France's CAC has fallen to a 1.1% loss. All 40 of its components are in the red, but Carrefour SA, Axa (AXA), Societe Generale, and Credit Agricole are in the worst shape as they contend with losses in excess of 4%. Britain's FTSE has fallen to a 1.0% loss as about 99% of its trade in negative territory. Capita Group Plc is currently the only component that has managed to find higher ground. A disappointing dose of retail sales data hasn't helped the FTSE. It was learned early this morning that retail sales in the United Kingdom fell by 1.4% during May after they had increased by 1.1% in April. Broader eurozone data indicated that consumer prices were flat during May after a 0.6% increase in April.

Overnight action in Asia culminated with sharp losses for several major market averages. Japan's Nikkei ended its trading day with a 1.7% loss, which represented its worst one-day drop in months. Japan Steel suffered the worst loss of any stock with a 6% drop, but Nippon Steel scored a solid gain in the face of widespread weakness. Paper plays like Nippon Paper, OJI Paper, and Mitsubishi Paper also outperformed. Hong Kong's Hang Seng extended its slide to a new multi-month low with a 1.8% loss. Financials were among the heaviest drags there. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed 1.5% lower. Natural resource plays succumbed to some of the sharpest selling pressure.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.40. Stock futures have pared their losses with help from a better-than-expected batch of economic data. Specifically, premarket participants have been encouraged by news that initial jobless claims for the week ended June 11 totaled 414,000, which is less than the 421,000 initial claims that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The latest weekly tally is also down by 16,000 from the prior week. Housing starts for May hit an annualized rate of 560,000, which is greater than the expected rate of 540,000 units. Building permits improved to an annualized rate of 612,000 in May from 563,000 in the prior month. They had actually been forecasted to fall to a rate of 548,000.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.40. Aggressive selling during the prior session sent the stock market to its lowest level in about three months. The negative tone continues this morning. As such, stock futures trail fair value by a considerable margin. The negative sentiment has been perpetuated by renewed weakness abroad, where many markets continue to react to social and political instability in Greece amid the country's precarious fiscal position. Concerns related to the matter have weighed heavily on the euro, which has fallen another 0.5% against the greenback today. The euro was last quoted at $1.409, which marks its lowest level in three weeks. As has been the case in recent sessions, there has been barely any corporate news of consequence. However, the bottom of the hour brings a dose of economic data with the release of monthly housing starts and weekly initial jobless claims. The Philadelphia Fed Survey follows at 10:00 AM ET.

06:45 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.40.

06:45 am : Nikkei...9411.28...-163.00...-1.70%. Hang Seng...21953.11...-390.70...-1.80%.

06:45 am : FTSE...5675.22...-67.30...-1.20%. DAX...7048.02...-67.10...-0.90%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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