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 Post subject: June 15th Wednesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +1.20
PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 11:31 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
061511-wrbtrader-PnL-Blotter-Profit-120.png
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +1.20 points or $120.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=91&t=899.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

-----------------------------

Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Finish Sharply Lower
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Hibah Yousuf June 15, 2011: 4:39 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks finished sharply lower Wednesday after gloomy manufacturing data and renewed fears aboout Greece's debt problems sparked a sell-off.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) dropped 179 points, or 1.5%, with all 30 of blue-chip index's stocks trading lower. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) were among the biggest laggards.

Other financial stocks followed suit, with shares of Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) down about 2%.

The S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 22 points, or 1.7%, with a 13% drop in shares of Owens-Illinois (OI, Fortune 500) leading the decline. The glass container maker cut its earnings guidance, citing rising manufacturing costs.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 47 points, or 1.8%. Baidu (BIDU) was among the worst performers on the tech-heavy index, with shares down almost 5%.

News that European officials failed to reach an agreement on bailing out Greece "continues to drive fear and cues the overall downtrend in the market," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Wall Street's most widely cited measure of volatility and fear, the VIX (VIX) , spiked more than 16% to 21.32. But it's still far below 30 -- the level that's thought to indicate investor fear.

* What the VIX tells us - StockTwits

Investors were also disappointed by a sour reading on regional manufacturing activity. "Today's number further confirms that activity has dropped, so that is a major concern," Detrick said.

The market has been weakening since the start of May, and stocks are on track to decline for a 7th straight week. The S&P 500 is now barely positive for the year, up only 0.6%. The Nasdaq is already in the red, while the Dow is barely holding on to a 3% gain for the year.

What a difference a day makes. U.S. stocks rallied Tuesday, with all three major indexes posting their best performances since April 20. But volume was light so the bounce lacked conviction.

Economy: Consumer inflation picked up more than expected last month, with growth driven by increased food prices, the government reported Wednesday.

The Labor Department's consumer price index rose 0.2% in May. Economists polled by Briefing.com expected consumer inflation ticked up by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.4% rise in the previous month.

Meanwhile, the Empire State manufacturing index declined to a reading of negative 7.8, while economists were forecasting a reading of plus 10.

* 10 great franchise bets

A report from the Federal Reserve showed that industrial production rose 0.1% in May, while capacity utilization climbed to 76.7% last month. Both readings came in slightly below economists' expectations.

Companies: Shares of Carnival (CCL) slipped 3% after the cruise-line operator lowered its fiscal 2011 earnings outlook earlier this week -- leading some analysts to cut their price targets for the company.

Scotts Miracle Gro (SMG) cut its full-year forecast as well, sending shares of the lawn-care product maker 6% lower. The company said continued bad weather has led to lower consumer demand.

Internet radio site Pandora began trading Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "P." Shares of Pandora (P), which priced its initial public offering at $16 a share, closed up 9%.

Shares of Ford (F, Fortune 500) fell 2% after the auto maker's vice president and controller Bob Shanks suggested that second-quarter profit will come in below consensus estimates during remarks at an investor conference.

World markets: Greece's troubles pressured world markets Wednesday.

In addition, Moody's issued a warning that it is reviewing the debt and deposit ratings at three French banking groups for possible downgrade.

European stocks tumbled on the double dose of bad news. Britain's FTSE 100 lost 1%, the DAX in Germany slipped 1.3% and France's CAC 40 dropped 1.4%.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.9% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong dipped 0.7%, while Japan's Nikkei edged higher by 0.3%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rallied almost 2% against the euro. It also rose versus the Japanese yen and the British pound.

The stronger dollar pushed oil prices down more than 4% to their lowest level in nearly four months. Oil for July delivery sank $4.56 to settle at $94.81 barrel.

Gold futures for August delivery rose $3.40 to settle at $1,527.90 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 2.97% from 3.10% late Tuesday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Aggressive selling dropped stocks to a new three-month low. In turn, the S&P 500 is now within close contact of its 200-day moving average and down about 8% from the three-year high that it set in May.

Stocks rallied in the prior session to register their strongest single-session gain in almost two months, but that advance was completely erased by a sell-off today. Selling was rekindled by concerns related to a mix of fiscal instability and social unrest in Greece. Concerns over Greece's precarious position undercut the euro, which suffered one of its worst daily losses in months with a 1.8% drop against the dollar to $1.417.

The greenback garnered additional support in the wake of the May CPI reading, which showed a 0.2% increase in overall consumer prices. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had been pegged at a 0.1% increase. Core CPI increased by 0.3%, which is greater than the 0.1% increase that had been broadly anticipated.

As for the rest of today's data, the Empire Manufacturing Survey for June came in at -7.8, which contrasts sharply with the reading of 10.0 that economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected after the prior month's reading of 11.9. That was followed by news that industrial production for May increased by a mere 0.1%, which is less than the 0.2% that had been broadly anticipated.

Not a single sector in the S&P 500 managed to limit its loss to less than 1%. Cyclical plays suffered some of the sharpest losses after they had scored some of the strongest gains in the prior session. Materials, energy, and financials all fell more than 2%.

Widespread weakness stoked volatility today. As such, the Volatility Index spiked about 17% to a near three-month high.

Treasuries, traditional safe havens, attracted strong buying interest, which took the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note back below 3.00% after it had spiked to a 10-day high of about 3.10% during the prior session.

Advancing Sectors: None
Declining Sectors: Materials -2.3%, Energy -2.2%, Financials -2.2%, Tech -1.8%, Industrials -1.5%, Consumer Staples -1.5%, Consumer Discretionary -1.5%, Health Care -1.3%, Telecom -1.3%, Utilities -1.2%DJ30 -178.84 NASDAQ -47.26 NQ100 -1.8% R2K -1.8% SP400 -1.6% SP500 -22.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 550/1.98 bln/2059 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 487/1.07 bln/2592

3:30 pm : Commodities were largely driven by the events taking place in Greece today and the resulting euro weakness and dollar strength. Reports that the Greek PM would step down, in order to make way for a unity government, sent ripples through the markets including the commodities markets.

July crude oil shed 4.6% to close at $94.81 per barrel. This morning's inventory data pushed crude into positive territory, where it notched highs at $99.95, but those gains were very short lived, as the main focus soon became the events in Greece. Crude dropped to lows at $94.01, with approx an hour left in pit trade, its worst levels since Feb 22. July natural gas finished lower by 0.4% to $4.58.

August gold ended higher by 0.1% to $1526.40 per ounce, while July silver shed 0.4% to close at $35.28 per ounce. Both metals pushed higher this morning in the wake of worse-than-expected econ data, in a flight to safety. However, the strength in the dollar eventually forced the precious metals lower. Gold traded back to the flat line, where it chopped around into the close, while silver fell into negative territory, where it closed. DJ30 -182.21 NASDAQ -48.22 SP500 -23.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 505/1.6 bln/2016 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 490/748.6 mln/2581

3:00 pm : The Dow is now down just about 200 points for the day. That puts it well below the psychologically significant mark of 12,000. There isn't a single Dow component that has managed to put together any kind of a gain. However, credit is owed to Disney (DIS 38.53, -0.06) and McDonald's (MCD 81.41, -0.06) for limiting their losses to just fractional declines. Every other blue chip is down by about 1% or more.DJ30 -199.62 NASDAQ -48.44 SP500 -24.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 474/1.34 bln/2110 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 470/613 mln/2600

2:30 pm : Today's drop takes the S&P 500 down almost 8% from its three-year high. However, the financial sector, down 2.3% today, has fallen 15% from the 30-month high that it set in February. As for energy, which is now today's worst performing sector as it grapples with a 2.4% loss, is down 11% from the near three-year high that it set in April.DJ30 -180.66 NASDAQ -42.62 SP500 -21.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 528/1.20 bln/2052 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 482/560 mln/2574

2:00 pm : Steady selling pressure has left the major equity averages to trade at session lows. At this point, all of the prior session's gain has been erased. That puts the stock market back at its lowest level since March. Moreover, it is quickly approaching its 200-day moving average, which hasn't been touched since September.DJ30 -184.97 NASDAQ -44.93 SP500 -23.37 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 515/2039 NYSE Adv/Dec 443/2603

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to trade at their lows for the day. Declining issues outnumber advancers by more than 5-to-1 on the NYSE.

Meanwhile, the dollar continues to improve its position so that it is now up 1.6% against a basket of major foreign currencies. The swing has sent the Dollar Index to its highest level in three weeks. DJ30 -177.71 NASDAQ -40.77 SP500 -21.54 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 503/2043 NYSE Adv/Dec 459/2576

1:00 pm : Turmoil in Greece and disappointing data are driving some aggressive selling today. The effort has completely erased the prior session's gain.

During the prior session the stock market scored its strongest single-session percentage gain in almost two months, but that appears to have been little more than an intermittent relief rally in light of renewed negativity today. Sellers have resumed control over the market amid rekindled concerns about fiscal instability in Greece, not to mention images of violence in the streets of Athens in response to planned budget and austerity measures.

The euro has dropped precipitously in response to Greece's tumult. Its 1.6% loss against the greenback has helped take the Dollar Index to a 1.4% gain.

A greater-than-expected increase in consumer inflation measures has further bolstered buying interest in the dollar. Both overall CPI and core CPI increased more than expected during May.

Other data has also disappointed. Generally, the latest Empire Manufacturing Survey made an unexpected drop into negative territory. Monthly industrial production increased by less than what had been anticipated.

Few stocks have been able to escape this session's sell-off. In fact, the lack of strength anywhere in the market is made evident by the fact that all 10 major sectors are down with losses in excess of 1%.

Financials have been hit the hardest today. The sector's 2.4% drop puts it at a 2011 low. Energy stocks got some mid-morning relief when oil prices rallied to a gain in the wake of a bullish inventory report, but oil prices have since rolled over to trade with a 2.3% loss at $97.10 per barrel. Energy stocks now trade with a collective loss of 1.8%.

With so many participants looking to sell, the Volatility Index has spiked to its highest level in about three months. It is currently up 13%.

Weakness among stocks and increased volatility has spurred buying among Treasuries. That has pulled the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note back to 3.00% after it had spiked to a 10-day high of about 3.10% during the prior session. DJ30 -176.50 NASDAQ -40.68 SP500 -20.87 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 525/2005 NYSE Adv/Dec 477/2539

12:30 pm : Sharp selling pressure has completely erased all of the prior session's gain. The push lower has been broad, taking five stocks into the red for every one that has managed to muster a gain.

Although weakness is widespread, financials have been hit the hardest. The sector is now down more than 2%. Not a single name in it has managed to find positive territory. DJ30 -161.81 NASDAQ -37.59 SP500 -20.09 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 875/1966 NYSE Adv/Dec 511/2485

12:00 pm : Stocks have rolled over to extend their recent downturn. Accelerating selling pressure has sent the three major equity averages to new session lows; they are all down in excess of 1%.

Amid the increased negativity, the Volatility Index has spiked to a 10% gain, which is enough to put the "Fear Gauge" at its highest level in almost three months.

The combination of a weak stock market and increased volatility has renewed buying interest among Treasuries. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is back near 3.00% after it had spiked to a 10-day high of about 3.10% during the prior session.

Meanwhile, the dollar continues to climb higher. It now leads a collection of competing currencies by 1.3%. DJ30 -136.50 NASDAQ -32.47 SP500 -16.67 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 571/1898 NYSE Adv/Dec 572 /2397

11:30 am : Stocks are on the backslide, but they have yet to return to the session lows that were set earlier today. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index has ticked back up to its best level of the day for a 1.0% gain. Most of the greenback's gain has come against the euro, which was last quoted with a 1.2% loss at $1.426 amid the escalation of violence and protests in the streets of Athens, Greece. Turmoil there comes in response to ongoing struggles to implement proper austerity measures and tighter fiscal controls.DJ30 -92.41 NASDAQ -22.58 SP500 -11.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 671/530 mln/1787 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 705/240 mln/2279

11:00 am : The major equity averages remain in the red with sizable losses amid widespread weakness.

Energy stocks have managed to move to session highs. Their upward push has cut their collective loss to just 0.4%. That has been helped by a rally in oil prices to $99.80 per barrel for a 0.4% gain after they had been down by about 1% in early pit trade. The bounce by oil prices follows a bullish weekly inventory report.

Financials are still in rough shape. The sector's 1.0% loss makes it the worst performing sector in the market. Among financial issues, banks are in especially weak shape; as such, the KBW Bank Index is down 1.1%. DJ30 -71.56 NASDAQ -15.42 SP500 -7.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 835/400 mln/1560 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 892/185 mln/2030

10:35 am : A strong dollar index is weighing on most of the commodity complex this morning.

However, despite this strength, gold and silver futures rallied right as the stock market was opening, extending the uptrend that both began about an hour prior. This recent rally pushed both precious metals into positive territory and pushed gold futures about $15/oz (or 1%) higher in eight minutes to $1535.70/oz. It then pushed to new session highs of $1533.90/oz a little after that run. Silver futures saw the same action, rallying about 44 cents (or 1.2%) during those eight minutes to $35.67/oz. Gold is currently up 0.4% at $1530.50/oz and silver is 0.7% higher at $35.66/oz.

Crude oil fell into the red about an hour and a half ago. It fell below $99.50 and approched the $98 level. but never fell through it. Crude was about $98.70 ahead of inventory data, which showed a draw of 3.41 million barrels versus consensus of a draw of 1.9 million barrels, crude pushed higher to just below the unchanged line. In current action, crude is down 0.4% at $98.91/barrel. Natural gas is currently 0.7% lower at $4.55/MMBtu.DJ30 -88.93 NASDAQ -15.59 SP500 -9.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 694/272 mln/1651 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 692/133.3 mln/2101

10:00 am : Stocks have been trimming their losses. The effort to move higher comes after the S&P 500 secured support around the 1275 line, which was touched when the broad market measure gapped down at the open of today's trade.

The NAHB Housing Market Index for June was just posted. It came in at 13, which is down from the prior month reading of 16. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had, on average, expected the Index to remain at 16. DJ30 -84.39 NASDAQ -16.29 SP500 -8.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 614/120 mln/1707 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 635/70 mln/2117

09:45 am : A precipitous drop at the start of trade took the broad market to within close reach of yesterday's opening level before support surfaced. Weakness remains widespread in that all 10 major sectors are in the red. That comes in stark contrast to early trade in the prior session.

Health care has managed to do the best job of limiting its loss this morning; the sector is down just 0.3%. Boston Scientific (BSX 7.10, +0.36) is currently a primary leader in the health care space, helping to offset weakness in among heavyweight pharmaceutical plays like Pfizer (PFE 20.40, -0.18) and Merck (MRK 35.41, -0.23). DJ30 -89.89 NASDAQ -18.22 SP500 -9.29 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 582/1717 NYSE Adv/Dec 640/2133

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.20. Premarket sellng pressure has the cash market positioned for an opening loss on the order of 1%. Such a slide would take a substantial chunk out of the prior session's rally, which was the strongest single-day advance for stocks in more than a month. The inclination to sell comes as many participants look to lock in higher prices in the midst of the stock market's downward trend, which has already lasted six weeks. Weakness among many of the major foreign equity averages has also stoked selling interest -- Asia's major averages failed to carry the prior session's positive tone into overnight trade, while Europe's bourses are battling sellers' efforts amid rekindled concerns about the implications of fiscal instability in Greece. Media this morning has relayed images of protests and violence in the streets of Athens. Data, which has featured a disappointing Empire Manufacturing Survey and a greater-than-expected increase in CPI and Core CPI, have also weighed on sentiment. The CPI data has helped drive the Dollar Index up to a gain of almost 1%. More recently, industrial production for May reportedly increased by a mere 0.1%, which is less than the 0.2% that had been broadly anticipated.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -22.70. A strong bounce by the greenback has put added pressure on several widely watched commodities. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index has been clipped for a 0.7% loss. Oil has been one of the weakest performers in the commodity complex. It was last quoted with a 1.1% loss at $98.30 per barrel. Oil inventory data are due at 10:30 AM ET. Natural gas prices are down 0.8% to $4.54 per MMBtu. As for precious metals, gold was last priced with a 0.2% loss at $1522 per ounce while silver was last priced with a 0.6% loss at $35.19 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.20. Stock futures have surrendered several more points in response to the latest round of data, but the dollar has extended its morning advance so that it now leads a collection of competing currencies by 1.0%. So far, this morning's data has featured an ugly Empire Manufacturing Survey reading of -7.8 for June. The consensus among economists surveyed by Briefing.com had called for a reading of 10.0 after a reading of 11.9 was posted for the prior month. Consumer price inflation data were also just reported. Overall CPI for May increased by 0.2%, which is a bit greater than the 0.1% increase that had been broadly anticipated. Core CPI increased by 0.3%, which contrasts with the Briefing.com consensus call for a 0.1% increase.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.00. Stocks rallied during the prior session for their strongest one-day advance in more than a month, but the positive tone has failed to carry over into this morning's premarket trade. Renewed negativity comes in response to rekindled concerns about the implications of Greece's fiscal instability, which has weighed on Europe's major bourses. Overnight action in Asia saw Japan's Nikkei muster a modest gain, but both Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's Shanghai Composite fell sharply. Reports attribute weakness in the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite to the decision by China's central bank to add another 50 basis points to the country's reserve requirement, even though there had been plenty of speculation about such a hike for some time. The decision to raise the ratio came on the heels of a generally in-line consumer price report that was released yesterday. Corporate announcements continue to be lacking, but the economic calendar remains full. CPI data are due at the bottom of the hour, along with the latest Empire Manufacturing Survey. Net Treasury International Capital Flows for April follow at 9:00 AM ET. Industrial production and capacity utilization for May will be released at 9:15 AM ET. Weekly oil inventory data are due at 10:30 AM ET.

06:30 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.70.

06:30 am : Nikkei...9574.32...+26.50...+0.30%. Hang Seng...22343.77...-152.30...-0.70%.

06:30 am : FTSE...5786.18...-17.00...-0.30%. DAX...7176.08...-28.70...-0.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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