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 Post subject: June 30th Thursday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +4.80
PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 1:31 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +4.80 points or $480.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=91&t=919.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis.

Image Bloomberg (YouTube Video) - Stocks Rally on Optimism Greece Will Avoid Debt Default

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rallied, giving the Standard & Poor's 500 Index its biggest four-day gain since September, amid increased optimism Greece will avoid default and after American business activity improved.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks End The First Half With A Bang
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Hibah Yousuf June 30, 2011: 4:38 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks ended the first half of the year solidly higher Thursday, as investors put a turbulent six months behind them.

All three major indexes rallied for the fourth day in a row, helped by a strong economic report on business activity in the Midwest and the latest positive developments out of Greece.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 153 points, or 1.3%, led by Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500). Shares of all three companies rose about 3%.

The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 13 points, or 1%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 33 points, or 1.2%. First Solar (FSLR) and eBay (EBAY, Fortune 500) were among the best performing stocks on both indexes.

All three major indexes reached the mid-year mark on a high note. The Dow is up more than 7% while the S&P and Nasdaq are up 5%.

Meanwhile, Wall Street's most widely cited measure of volatility and fear, the VIX (VIX), has dropped nearly 7% during the first six months of the year.

* Interactive: A stormy year for stocks

The second quarter has been difficult, however. Stocks struggled over the past two months amid jitters about Europe's sovereign debt problems and an economic slowdown in the United States.

The Dow ended the quarter up 0.8%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished about 0.3% lower. That quarterly performance was the worst in a year for all three indexes.

Economy: The Chicago purchasing managers index, which measures business activity in the Midwest, jumped to 61.1 in June from 56.6 the prior month. Economists were expecting the measure to slip to 54.

"Based on the series of poor economic reports we've had the last several weeks, expectations were low, so this was a nice surprise," said Joseph Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading.

* Don't fear the commodities bear

Strong regional data is especially welcome news ahead of the national Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index due Friday, but it's only one data point, Saluzzi cautioned.

Adding to the welcome news, Greece voted in favor of implementing the austerity measures approved on Wednesday. The measures aim to keep the debt-ridden country from defaulting.

But as anti-government protests grow worse, some investors worry that Greece's problems are far from over.

* Video - Markets in-depth: Global turmoil

"There's still a lot to sort out with Greece and we're not out of the woods yet," Saluzzi said. "There are a lot of major global economic concerns, and I think markets will be choppy for the rest of the summer."

The Labor Department reported that weekly jobless claims edged down slightly in the latest week, but fell short of economists' expectations for a bigger drop.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for August delivery rose 65 cents to settle at $95.42 a barrel.

Gold futures for August delivery slipped $7.60 to settle at $1,502.80 an ounce.

* 10-year yield at one-month high

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged down, pushing the yield up to 3.16% from 3.11% late Wednesday.

Companies: Shares of eBay (EBAY, Fortune 500), which owns PayPal, jumped more than 4% a day after the Federal Reserve imposed caps on debit card swipe fees that weren't as high as expected.

* Video - Card Companies Soar On Swipe Fees

Shares of the First Solar (FSLR) gained more than 2%, after the company won $4.5 billion in loan guarantees from the Department of Energy.

World markets: European stocks ended higher. Britain's FTSE 100 gained 1.5%, the DAX in Germany added 1.1% and France's CAC 40 rose 1.5%.

Asian markets also ended the session higher. The Shanghai Composite jumped 1.2%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong gained 1.5% and Japan's Nikkei rose 0.2%.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : The stock market advanced another 1% to conclude the second quarter on a strong note, but the effort wasn't enough to give stocks a quarterly gain.

Broad-based buying on thin volume has taken stocks higher every session this week. The S&P 500 now heads into Friday on track for a 4% weekly gain. Although the market has been benefiting from an upturn in sentiment, gains in the past four sessions weren't quite enough to prevent the stock market from logging a fractional loss for the second quarter. The loss comes after it had advanced more than 5% in the first quarter.

Strength in recent sessions has been widespread, but leadership has varied from session to session. Industrials were today's top performers. The sector ascended to a 1.7% gain. However, industrials fell little more than 1% for the second quarter.

Financials were leaders in the prior session, but in the latest round of trade they fell behind, as they had done earlier this week. As a group, financials advanced 0.4% this session. They actually fell more than 6% during the course of the second quarter.

The broad market's overall strength this week comes partly in response to a shift in sentiment. Prior to this week, market participants had watched stocks muster only one weekly gain in almost two months of trade. The market's steady descent during that time came amid concerns about the financial woes of Greece, which has made progress this week in shoring up its finances by passing an austerity plan and voting today to implement that plan.

Data have been somewhat mixed, though. Initial jobless claims for the week ended June 25 totaled 428,000, which is a greater tally than the 420,000 claims that had been widely expected. However, the latest Chicago PMI report reversed recent softening to hit 61.1, which is greater than the 54.0 that had been widely expected.

For the first time this week share volume on the NYSE came close to 1.0 billion. It has been depressed in recent days, given that a long, holiday weekend is on the horizon. However, the end of the quarter likely induced some window dressing and portfolio rebalancing that gave today's volume an added boost.

Advancing Sectors: Industrials +1.7%, Energy +1.5%, Tech +1.4%, Materials +1.3%, Consumer Staples +0.9%, Consumer Discretionary +0.9%, Telecom +0.8%, Financials +0.4%, Utilities +0.4%, Health Care +0.3%
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +152.92 NASDAQ +33.03 NQ100 +1.3% R2K +0.9% SP400 +0.7% SP500 +13.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1702/1.87 bln/674 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2205/995 mln/798

3:30 pm : Following yesterday's austerity vote in Greece, it was a somewhat quieter session for commodities. August gold settled lower by 0.5% to $1502.90 per ounce, while Sept silver finished near unchanged at $34.76 per ounce. Both metals gave back modest gains from earlier in the session.

August natural gas finished higher by 1.4% to $4.37 per MMBtu. This morning's inventory data, which showed a slightly smaller-than-expected build, sent natural gas sharply higher. It put in highs at $4.42 but pulled back from those highs heading into the close. August crude oil had an uneventful session as it closed higher by 65 cents to $95.42 per barrel. DJ30 +139.79 NASDAQ +32.02 SP500 +11.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1706/1.4 bln/668 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2203/564.1 mln/798

3:00 pm : Stocks have extended their sideways drift into the last hour of the second quarter. As things currently stand, the S&P 500 will book a quarterly loss of about 0.5%. That slip has been minimized by four consecutive sessions of strong gains, which have the stock market up about 4% week to date.DJ30 +135.24 NASDAQ +32.57 SP500 +11.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1723/1.25 bln/640 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2246/485 mln/740

2:30 pm : Stocks are drifting sideways. The lack of direction has made for a rather unexciting afternoon. What remains of interest, though, is that stock market remains on track for another advance of substantial size. Gains in every session of this week have the stock market up 4% week to date.

Participation remains unimpressive, however. As a consequence, share volume remains light. With so few shares trading hands, the weight of each trade takes on greater relative weight, making the market's response to those trades more pronounced. Share volume has been light all week, mainly because so many traders have left their desks to take vacation time ahead of the July 4 holiday on Monday. U.S. markets will be cosed that day in observance of Independence Day. DJ30 +130.14 NASDAQ +31.84 SP500 +11.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1726/1.15 bln/619 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2261/445 mln/720

2:00 pm : The S&P 500 advanced more than 5% in the first quarter, but its losses in recent weeks have left it on pace for a 0.5% loss for the second quarter. Meanwhile, the Dow is actually up 0.5% for the second quarter. The fractional gain comes on top of a gain of more than 6% in the first quarter.DJ30 +131.01 NASDAQ +31.03 SP500 +11.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1709/1.08 bln/621 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2276/415 mln/696

1:30 pm : Stocks are drifting off of their session highs, but overall gains remain solid and broad as all 10 major sectors continue to trade in positive territory.

With stocks easing off of their best levels, Treasuries have managed to pare their losses. That has the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note down a couple of basis points to 3.15%. DJ30 +127.45 NASDAQ +29.87 SP500 +10.99 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1659/656 NYSE Adv/Dec 2229/735

1:00 pm : Stocks are up markedly for the fourth straight session. The advance comes as sentiment surrounding stocks improves after a negative bias had directed trade since the end of April.

Prior to this week, stocks netted only one weekly gain -- an incremental move at that -- since the end of April. However, the sense that stocks have been beaten down long enough has caused sentiment to improve substantially this week. Progress by Greece's parliament in moving toward shoring up its finances has helped. Just today, the country's officials passed a vote to implement the country's new austerity plan.

In light of the positive tone surrounding trade, participants have shrugged off another disappointing initial jobless claims report. The latest initial claims tally totaled 428,000, which is greater than what had been widely expected.

Leadership has varied this week. Yesterday financials helped lift broader action with a 2% gain, but today financials have been relative laggards as they trade with a collective gain of 0.6%. Today, though, tech has been a primary driver of the stock market's climb. Tech stocks, which collectively carry more weight than any other sector, are up 1.4%.

The stock market's march higher this week has been made easier by thin volume ahead of the long, holiday weekend. Already the S&P 500 is up about 4% in just four days. Despite that, the stock market is still headed for a slight second quarter loss. DJ30 +129.30 NASDAQ +31.24 SP500 +11.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1637/925 mln/663 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2238/350 mln/709

12:30 pm : Industrials stocks are down more than 1% for the quarter, but up 1.6% this session. Their strength today makes industrials the best performing sector in the S&P 500. Strength in the sector is broad, but Joy Global (JOYG 93.60, +3.49) and Ingersoll-Rand (IR 45.57, +1.65) are primary leaders. Quanta Services (PWR 20.25, -0.09) is one of the few stocks in the sector that has failed to find higher ground.DJ30 +140.32 NASDAQ +31.41 SP500 +12.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1635/839 mln/640 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2254/317 mln/674

12:00 pm : Stocks continue to sit at session highs with gains of about 1% or more. The move puts the broad market on pace for its fourth straight substantial gain and gives the stock market a week-to-date gain of about 4%. Despite that, the S&P 500 is still down fractionally for the quarter.

Strength among stocks continues to drag down Treasuries. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note has climbed to a one-month high near 3.20%. Earlier this week the Note's yield set a 2011 low of about 2.85%. DJ30 +143.76 NASDAQ +33.74 SP500 +13.00 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1640/614 NYSE Adv/Dec 2259/649

11:30 am : After a lackluster start, financials have worked their way to a 0.5% gain. Although that is only about half of what the broad market has achieved, it represents considerable improvement from the early loss that the sector had suffered. The financial sector's turnaround has been led by the likes of JPMorgan Chase (JPM 41.01, +0.56), Citigroup (C 41.90, +0.40), and Wells Fargo (WFC 28.28, +0.21). Bank of America (BAC 11.05, -0.09) has been a bit of a burden on the financial space after it had spiked during the prior session in response to settlement of charges related to certain mortgage-backed securities.DJ30 +143.12 NASDAQ +32.42 SP500 +12.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1598/635 mln/646 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2256/240 mln/632

11:00 am : Stocks are back at session highs after slipping a bit in recent trade. The market's upward move comes as the dollar drifts down to a 0.4% loss against a basket of major foreign currencies.

Weakness in the dollar is mostly due to a bounce by the euro, which has won increased support in the wake of news that Greece's parliament secured a majority of votes to pass the implementation of the recently approved austerity plan. The euro has already advanced more than 2% this week. DJ30 +133.39 NASDAQ +25.35 SP500 +10.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1484/450 mln/697 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2195/180 mln/636

10:35 am : Commodities are mostly lower this morning with the CRB Commodity Index showing 0.4% in losses. Meanwhile, the dollar index about 0.2% lower.

Natural gas has been in the red all morning and was 1.7% lower at $4.26/MMBtu ahead of this morning's inventory data. Following the data, which showed a build 78 bcf versus consensus, which called for a build of ~80 bcf, natural gas futures rose into positive territory, now 0.7% higher at $4.36/MMBtu.

Crude oil (WTI) has chopped around just above the unchanged line for most of the morning. Crude was back near overnight highs of $95.44/barrel about 40 minutes ago and is currently up 0.6% at $95.34 barrel.

Precious metals fell into negative territory about 45 minutes ago, falling to new session lows. However, gold never fell through the $1500 level and is currently down 0.4% at $1504.40/oz. Silver is down 0.2% at $34.70/oz.

Ag futures drop sharply at the open of pit trading following bearish USDA report out this morning. Wheat is 7.6% lower at $6.24, while corn is 4.6% lower sat $6.21.DJ30 +136.72 NASDAQ +28.41 SP500 +11.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1668/292.7 mln/629 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2206/126.1 mln/569

09:55 am : After opening with a modest gain, stocks extended their early advance with help from a surprisingly strong Chicago PMI reading. However, stocks have started to lose momentum and, as a result, are easing back a bit. Still, overall gains remain impressive.

Financials were able to move out of the red to a 0.2% gain after the PMI report had been posted. Prior to that, the sector had been down about 0.3%. The sector has since struggled to extend the move and is now back at the flat line.

As for energy and tech, the two sectors are still early leaders. In fact, both sectors are now up in excess of 1%, which makes them this morning's best performers by percent gained. DJ30 +96.99 NASDAQ +21.50 SP500 +8.67

09:45 am : The major equity averages are up with solid gains this morning. The move comes with help from a solid Chicago PMI report, which was just posted for the public only moments ago. The report's reading of 61.1 exceeded the 54.0 that had been widely expected.

Early strength is relatively broad based, but financial issues haven't offered much support. The sector is actually down fractionally after it ascended to a gain of more than 2% during the prior session.

Energy stocks and tech stocks are up solidly, though. Both sectors are up 0.9%. Energy's advance comes even though oil prices have drifted down from their early morning levels so that they are now at $95.10 per barrel, or just above the flat line. Tech issues are currently led by Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 36.83, +1.28). DJ30 +96.00 NASDAQ +21.02 SP500 +9.22

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.50. Stock futures suggest that the final session of the second quarter will start on a positive note. Any such move is mostly owed to an upward momentum that began earlier this week. Strength in recent sessions has stocks about 3% higher in just three days. The positive tone to premarket trade has persisted in the wake of another disappointing weekly jobless claims report, which was highlighted by news that 428,000 initial jobless claims were counted for the most recent week. Participants also continue to monitor Greece to see what will unfold as the country's parliament moves to vote on the implementation of the austerity plan that was adopted only yesterday. Expectations that Greece's officials will progress toward shoring up the country's financials has helped the euro climb to a 2% week-to-date gain against the greenback. The euro is up just 0.1% against the dollar this morning.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.00. Commodities are somewhat mixed this morning. Specifically, oil prices have slipped in the first few minutes of pit trade so that they now stand at $94.97 per barrel with a 0.2% gain. Natural gas prices are down 1.6% to $4.26 per MMBtu. Weekly inventory numbers for natural gas are due at 10:30 AM ET. Among precious metals, gold prices are up just 0.1% to $1512 per ounce while silver prices were last quoted with a 0.9% gain at $35.05 per ounce. The USDA released a couple of key reports this morning. The annual acreage report was considered rather bearish. As for the quarterly grain stocks report, its bullishness was underscored by a 15% year-over-year decline in physical corn inventories. Corn has yet to begin trading this session, but grain ETFs are down sharply ahead of the open.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.70. Stock futures continue to trade with modest strength in the wake of the latest jobless claims count. Initial jobless claims for the week ended June 25 totaled 428,000, which is consistent with what was recorded for the prior week, but is a greater tally than the 420,000 claims that had been widely expected this time around. As for continuing claims, they came down by about 12,000 from the prior week to 3.70 million.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.00. The stock market heads into the final session of June with a monthly loss of almost 3% and a quarterly loss of little more than 1%, despite an advance of about 3% during the course of the past three sessions. The improved tone of trade displayed in recent sessions has carried over into this morning's premarket action. In turn, a modestly higher open is expected for the broad market. Participants continue to keep a watchful eye on the goings on of Greece. The country's parliament is expected to vote on the implementation of the austerity plan that it just passed yesterday. Other potential drivers for trade include weekly jobless claims, which are slated for the bottom of the hour. The Chicago PMI will be posted at 9:45 AM ET. Although there are several trading catalysts in the works, share volume is expected to be light with the long, holiday weekend on the horizon -- U.S. markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Independence Day.

06:42 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.00.

06:42 am : Nikkei...9816.09...+18.80...+0.20%. Hang Seng...22398.10...+336.90...+1.50%.

06:42 am : FTSE...5889.85...+33.90...+0.60%. DAX...7293.93...-0.20...0.00.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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