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 Post subject: May 25th Wednesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +5.80
PostPosted: Thu May 26, 2011 6:44 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +5.80 points or $580.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=866.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image Bloomberg (YouTube Video) - U.S. Stocks Advance as Commodity Shares Rally

May 25 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks advanced, with benchmark indexes snapping a three-day decline, as commodity shares rallied on expectations for higher raw material prices.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Gain After 3-Day Rout
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Hibah Yousuf
May 25, 2011: 4:57 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks strengthened Wednesday, moving higher after three straight days of declines, following a rise in commodity prices.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 38 points, or 0.3%. Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) and DuPont (DD, Fortune 500) gained the most on the blue chip index, while Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500) and Kraft (KFT, Fortune 500) were the biggest laggards.

The S&P 500 (SPX) added 4 points, or 0.3%, while tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP) rose 15 points, or 0.6%, with Netflix (NFLX) leading the advance.

The push higher came as gains in commodities "helped the market overcome negative economic news," said Scott Marcouiller, chief technical market strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors.

Oil prices surged 1.7% to top $101 per barrel, while silver prices jumped more than 4% to near $38 per ounce. Gold prices edged up 0.2% to $1,526.70 per ounce.

Marcouiller said concerns about the European debt crisis also eased some after Fitch Ratings said that German banks' risk from Greek debt is manageable.

Despite the day's modest advance in stock prices, stocks remain lower for the month, and headwinds remain.

The Dow and S&P 500 have both declined more than 3%, and the Nasdaq has tumbled nearly 4% since the start of the month

"The market is in a bit of a tug-of-war," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

On one hand, investors are on edge as they face a series of issues that refuse to go away: a slowing U.S. recovery, European debt problems, and the end of the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program.

"The weak economic data is accumulating, and investors are spooked that the economy may be losing momentum, which could crimp future corporate profits," Luschini said. "And nobody knows what the loss of the Fed's stimulus in June will mean."

On the other hand, corporate earnings have been coming in above expectations for the most part. And in a low-interest rate environment, equities remain the most attractive asset class, Luschini said.

* The metal family tree - StockTwits

Economy: New orders for long-lasting goods fell more than expected in April, the Commerce Department said. Durable goods orders fell 3.6% last month, versus a forecasted 2% decline.

French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde announced her bid to become head of the International Monetary Fund Wednesday.

Lagarde is the leading contender to replace Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who resigned last week in the wake of charges that he tried to rape a hotel maid in New York. She would be the first female managing director for the IMF.

Companies: Shares of AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) fell 4%, after the insurance giant's long-awaited stock sale late Tuesday raised $8.7 billion, leaving the U.S. government with a tiny profit on the offering.

Shares of Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (MSO) jumped 24% after the company said Martha Stewart would rejoin the company's board of directors. The company also hired private equity firm Blackstone Group (BX) to help explore "strategic alternatives."

* Video - Toll Brothers shapes up

Costco's (COST, Fortune 500) stock fell 1.3%, after the company delivered a lower-than-expected profit. The wholesale club's stock was among the worst performers on the Nasdaq.

California Pizza Kitchen is being bought by Golden Gate Capital for $470 million, or $18.50 per share in cash. Shares of CPK (CPKI) rose 10.5%.

* CEO dynasties

Shares of Russian search engine Yandex (YNDX) slipped 9.9% to about $36, a day after the company's stock jumped 55% on its public debut from its IPO price of $25 a share.

Polo Ralph Lauren (RL, Fortune 500) was the biggest decliner on the S&P 500, with shares falling 11.4%. The retailer's quarterly profit tumbled 36% to $73.2 million, below analysts expectations, mostly due to higher cotton prices.

World markets: European stocks ended modestly higher. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.2%, and the DAX in Germany and France's CAC 40 added 0.3%.

Asian markets ended the session mixed. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.9% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong was a hair higher, while Japan's Nikkei fell 0.6%.

Currencies: The dollar rose against the euro and the Japanese yen, but eased versus the British pound.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell slightly, pushing the yield up to 3.14% from 3.12% late Tuesday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Resource-related stocks helped the broad market fight off early selling to stage its first gain in four sessions.

Losses in the previous three sessions and renewed weakness among the major markets abroad weighed on the early tone of trade. The latest durable goods orders data didn't help.

During April durable goods orders dropped 3.6% and orders less transportation fell 1.5%. Economists polled by Briefing.com had, on average, called for a 2.0% decline in overall orders and a 0.6% increase in orders less transportation, but the worse than expected results were met with only a mildly negative response since the sharp declines were largely attributable to a spike in orders during the prior month. During March overall orders climbed 4.4% while orders less transportation increased 2.5%.

Corporate news flow picked up a bit from the anemic pace of the past few sessions, but it failed to offer much encouragement to buyers. Announcements from retailers Express (EXPR 20.12, -2.75), American Eagle (AEO 13.02, -0.64), and Collective Brands (PSS 15.31, -3.06) featured either disappointing quarterly results or downside guidance.

Dow component Cisco (CSCO 16.19, -0.08) tempered its guidance in a quarterly filing. The stock extended its multi-month descent to its lowest level since the stock market was struck with fear of a global economic and financial system meltdown more than two years ago.

Despite such headwinds in the early going, the major equity averages were able to attract enough support to find higher ground. Small-cap stocks staged one of the sharpest climbs. They were able to overcome a slight loss in the early going and settle with a gain of more than 1%.

Within the broad market, natural resource plays provided the most leadership while many of the other sectors traded listlessly. Favor for the space helped energy stocks and materials stocks advance 1.5% and 1.4%, respectively.

Higher commodity prices helped resource-related issues. Oil prices were especially strong; they rallied from an opening loss on the order of about 1% to a 1.7% gain well above $101 per barrel in the face of bearish weekly inventory data. Silver prices staged one of the best moves with its near 4% rally to $37.56 per ounce.

The dollar did little today. It had been higher overnight against other currencies, but was backed down to the flat line during the day. It was largely held in check by Britain's sterling pound, which climbed 0.6% to $1.627 following the United Kingdom's final first quarter GDP reading, which indicated that its economy expanded by 0.5%, as had been reported in the preliminary reading.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+1.5%), Materials (+1.4%), Industrials (+0.8%), Tech (+0.5%), Health Care (+0.1%), Financials (+0.1%)
Unchanged: Consumer Discretionary
Declining Sectors: Utilities (-0.3%), Consumer Staples (-0.7%), Telecom (-0.7%)DJ30 +38.45 NASDAQ +15.22 NQ100 +0.3% R2K +1.3% SP400 +0.7% SP500 +4.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1713/1.90 bln/876 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1961/963 mln/1031

3:30 pm : July crude oil rallied for 1.7% to settle at $101.32 per barrel, through the top end of its recent range. Despite this morning's inventory data, which showed a modest build vs expectations for a draw down, an unexpected draw down in distillates helped futures trade to their best levels in 2 weeks. It was an uneventful session for June natural gas, which finished up 0.7% to $4.38 per MMBtu.

July silver extended its rally to a second session, finishing higher by 3.9% to $37.56 per ounce. It has now gained over $2.50 in the past two sessions and is trading back at levels seen in mid-May. June gold ended up 0.2% to close at $1526.40 per ounce. After trading to its best levels since early May, at $1532.50, it sold off back toward the flat line to finish with modest gains. DJ30 +73.57 NASDAQ +22.30 SP500 +8.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1771/1.5 bln/790 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2060/609.9 mln/904

3:00 pm : Stocks are clinging to modest gains as they enter the final hour of the session. Should the advance hold, all three of the major equity averages will achieve their first gain in four sessions.

As for the dollar, it continues to trade sideways along the unchanged mark. Despite the lack of action in the greenback today, it is up a solid 0.6% for the week. Year to date, it is down about 4% against a basket of major foreign currencies, though. DJ30 +44.81 NASDAQ +18.00 SP500 +5.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1664/1.36 bln/869 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1891/550 mln/1062

2:30 pm : Without any clear cause or catalyst, the stock market has turned upward to come in touch with the session high that it set just before noon ET. Although natural resource plays like energy (+1.6%) and materials (+1.6%) continue to provide the most leadership, tech stocks (+0.6%) are chipping in.

As a group, tech stocks have been lagging resource-plays this session. However, since the group makes up the largest sector by market weight, their gains come with added influence. Among the strongest movers in the space, Apple (AAPL 337.09, +4.90) is up about 1.5% after a favorable analyst report was released this morning. In contrast, Cisco (CSCO 16.13, -0.14) continues to encounter selling pressure following its tempered guidance. DJ30 +44.54 NASDAQ +17.50 SP500 +5.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1634/1.25 bln/884 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1836/505 mln/1098

2:00 pm : The Dollar Index has moved back into positive territory to trade with a fractional gain after dipping into negative territory for a short time. Britain's sterling pound has kept the Dollar Index near the neutral line for most of today; it is currently up 0.5% to $1.626.

Meanwhile, the major market averages have spent the past few hours drifting along in a relatively narrow trading range with modest gains. The lack of action has made for a rather lackluster afternoon. DJ30 +25.58 NASDAQ +12.82 SP500 +2.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1628/1.17 bln/890 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1835/465 mln/1101

1:30 pm : Results from an auction of 5-year Notes were posted at 1:00 PM ET. The auction drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.20, dollar demand of $112.0 billion -- the second highest level of the year -- and an indirect bidder participation rate of 47.1%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.77, dollar demand of $97.0 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 40.0%. An average of the past six auctions gives a bid-to-cover of 2.75, dollar demand of $96.1 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 38.1%.

Treasuries have climbed higher in the wake of the auction. About an hour ago the benchmark 10-year Note was down to a session low with a modest loss, but it is now up with an incremental gain. DJ30 +23.88 NASDAQ +12.70 SP500 +2.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1684/1.09 bln/825 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1856/430 mln/1056

1:00 pm : The broad market has made its way to a modest gain after opening with a narrow loss. The move has been helped along by natural resource plays.

The mood among premarket participants was tainted by general weakness among overseas markets and, to an extent, by a disappointing durable goods orders report.

Overall durable goods orders fell 3.6% while orders less transportation tumbled 1.5%. Both were worse than expected, but the sharpness of their declines was partly due to the fact that overall orders for the prior month had climbed 4.4% and orders less transportation had climbed 2.5%.

Once trade opened, energy stocks were quick to offer leadership. Their early advance extended their gains in the prior session. Energy stocks are now up 1.7%. Favor for resource-related issues has also helped materials stocks, which are up 1.5%. No other sector is even close to matching their gains.

Defensive-oriented stocks have struggled all session. As such, consumer staples plays are down 0.9%. Meanwhile, telecom stocks are down 0.4%, as a group. Utilites are collectively down 0.3%.

Several retailers have had a weak session following a mix of disappointing reports and forecasts from Express (EXPR 20.39, -2.48), American Eagle (AEO 12.85, -0.81), and Collective Brands (PSS 15.51, -2.87). In a similar vein, Dow component Cisco (CSCO 16.14, -0.13) continues to contend with selling pressure. The company tempered its guidance in a quarterly filing. DJ30 +37.69 NASDAQ +16.34 SP500 +4.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1661/1.01 bln/825 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1845/395 mln/1039

12:30 pm : Treasuries are at session lows, but overall losses are only modest. Their dip comes ahead of results from an auction of 5-year Notes that will be posted at the top of the hour. Expectations for demand may be heightened due to the success of yesterday's auction of 2-year Notes.DJ30 +35.42 NASDAQ +15.76 SP500 +4.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1675/909 mln/769 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1894/352 mln/989

12:00 pm : The major equity averages have extended their gains so that they are all at new session highs. Defensive-oriented plays continue to trail, though. As such, telecom, utilities, and consumer staples are all in the red with respective losses of 0.4%, 0.5%, and 0.8%.

Most equities have been helped in recent trade by the dollar's downturn. The greenback had been holding on to a narrow gain for most of the morning, but it recently retreated so that the Dollar Index is now down 0.1%, which makes for a session low. DJ30 +33.64 NASDAQ +15.29 SP500 +4.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1616/800 mln/799 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1906/313 mln/966

11:30 am : Natural resource plays continue to climb. As such, both the energy sector and the materials sector are up 1.3%. That's more than double what any other sector has achieved.

Natural resource stocks have been helped by a recent rally in commodities, which have driven the CRB Commodity Index up to a session high, where it now sports a 1.5% gain. Oil has been a primary driver of that move; it is now up 1.1% to $100.70 per barrel after it had opened pit trade with a loss of almost 1%. DJ30 +27.66 NASDAQ +11.72 SP500 +3.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1545/680 mln/841 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1769/265 mln/1058

11:00 am : All three major equity averages have poked back into positive territory after being mired near the neutral line for some time.

Energy stocks continue to offer leadership. The sector has rallied to a 1.0% gain, which has been helped by oil's climb to the flat line at $99.65 per barrel, even though the latest weekly inventory data were bearish. Oil prices are still down about 0.3% week-to-date.

Financials have been caught in lackluster trade once again. The sector actually lagged yesterday. Today it is up only 0.1%. DJ30 +11.43 NASDAQ +7.14 SP500 +1.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1458/530 mln/891 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1631/215 mln/1143

10:35 am : The dollar index is showing modest strength this morning, but this isn't doing much to weaken the commodity complex.

However, crude oil has been in the red all morning and was lower ahead of inventory data. Following the data, which showed a build of 616K versus consensus of a draw of 1700K, crude oil sold off to $99.00 and is now down 0.4% at $99.16/barrel.

Natural gas was trending higher this morning until its recent pullback. However, it's pulled back a few cents, but remains in positive territory at $4.41, up +0.4%.

Precious metals have been higher all morning with notable strength in silver, which began posting strong gains in the overnight session. About 40 minutes ago, silver hit session highs of $37.49/oz. and remains near those session highs of $37.34/oz. Gold is up 0.3% at $1527.30/oz.DJ30 -8.10 NASDAQ +5.77 SP500 -0.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1144/365.9 mln/1153 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1124/149.2 mln/1590

10:00 am : Despite an early effort to quickly climb back to the flat line, stocks have failed to generate enough momentum to extend the move into higher ground. The market's inability to generate a gain has left it to trade mixed at the neutral line.

Meanwhile, the dollar has slowly reclaimed some of its overnight gain. It now leads a basket of major foreign currencies by 0.2%. Most of that is because the euro has fallen 0.4% to $1.403, which puts it back near the two-month low that it set this past Monday. DJ30 -21.49 NASDAQ +3.35 SP500 -2.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1164/190 mln/1000 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1205/84 mln/1423

09:45 am : Stocks started the session in the red, but are making a quick reversal back to the flat line. Defensive-oriented issues continue to encounter selling pressure, though. In turn, the telecom, utilities, and consumer staples sectors are all down by 0.6%.

Energy stocks have already advanced to an early gain of 0.5%. That builds on the 1.3% gain that it scored in the prior session. Energy's bounce comes despite lower oil prices. Oil prices were last quoted with a 0.4% loss at $99.20 per barrel. DJ30 -3.63 NASDAQ +4.22 SP500 -0.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 650/65 mln/1358 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 564/28 mln/1547

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.90. Weakness among stock futures is expected to result in an opening loss for the major equity averages. Pressure comes in the wake of a disappointing durable goods orders report, although the immediate reaction to the report was relatively muted. Corporate news hasn't been very inspiring either -- Cisco (CSCO) tempered its revenue forecast in a quarterly filing and several retailers have either announced disappointing quarterly results or offered downside forecasts. Meanwhile, AIG (AIG) priced an offering of 300 million shares 1.5% below the stock's prior session closing price. Foreign markets have had to fight renewed selling interest, which has already taken many of Asia's major averages lower and kept Europe's bourses in the red. As for the greenback, it currently leads a collection of competing currencies by only a slight margin. Even though the dollar has lacked direction this morning, commodities are mixed with silver prices up more than 3% to trade at $37.25 per ounce and oil prices down 0.7% to trade at $98.90 per barrel. Oil inventory data is due at 10:30 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.90. Although they remain mired in the red with modest losses, Europe's major bourses are up markedly from their early morning lows with help from financial issues. Germany's DAX is currently down 0.2%. Commerzbank AG has provided positive price support after it was upgraded by a couple of analyst firms. Deutsche Bank (DB) has shared in its strength. The country's GfK Consumer Confidence reading for June came in at 5.5, which is down from the 5.7 that had been posted in May. France's CAC is currently off by 0.3%. Financial plays Societe Generale and BNP Paribas have provided leadership, but lingering weakness in the rest of the CAC has kept the Index in the red. Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) has been one of the heaviest drags on trade. Britain's FTSE is off by just 0.1%. Banking plays like Barclays (BCS) have been a key source of support. As for data, first quarter GDP for the United Kingdom increased by 0.5%, as had been reported in the preliminary reading.

Most of Asia's major averages moved lower overnight. Among those that logged losses, Japan's Nikkei surrendered 0.6%. Tokyo Electric Power extended its slide with another sharp decline. Toshiba and Pioneer also weighed heavily on trade. CSK Corp and Toyota Motor (TM) both traded with strength, though. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite fell another 0.9%. China Construction Bank was a burden on broad trade. Hong Kong's Hang Seng managed to muster a 0.1% gain, even though actual leadership was limited.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.60. Stock futures had only a modestly negative response to the latest durable goods orders data. They have since recovered to earlier levels. Durable goods orders dove 3.6% during April. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for a less severe decline of 2.0%. The precipitous decline is partly owed to the fact that orders for the prior month were revised upward to reflect a robust 4.4% increase. Excluding transportation, orders for April fell 1.5%, which contrasts with the consensus call for a 0.6% increase. Orders less transportation for the prior month were revised upward to reflect a 2.5% increase.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.60. Stock futures are flat after the major equity averages logged more losses in the prior session. Although there have been a handful of earnings announcements, headlines this morning have failed to inspire premarket participants. Moreover, action in Asia was generally weak overnight. That has been followed by lackluster trade in Europe. The dollar is seeing mixed interest; it was last quoted with a gain of just 0.1% after it had been higher in the early hours of this morning. As for data, durable goods orders are due at the bottom of the hour, weekly oil inventory figures will be posted at 10:30 AM ET, and results from an auction of 5-year Notes will be announced at 1:00 PM ET.

06:31 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.60.

06:31 am : Nikkei...9422.88...-54.30...-0.60%. Hang Seng...22747.28...+16.50...+0.10%.

06:31 am : FTSE...5853.67...-4.70...-0.10%. DAX...7136.22...-14.40...-0.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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