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 Post subject: May 20th Friday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +15.20
PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2011 11:14 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
052011-wrbtrader-PnL-Blotter-Profit-1520.png
052011-wrbtrader-PnL-Blotter-Profit-1520.png [ 28.61 KiB | Viewed 324 times ]

click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +15.20 points or $1520.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=856.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

-----------------------------

Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks End The Day and Week Lower
Attachment:
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052011-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png [ 513.93 KiB | Viewed 300 times ]

click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Hibah Yousuf and Ken Sweet
May 20, 2011: 4:50 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks finished lower Friday, amid weak outlooks from retailers and as the dollar rallied on Greek debt jitters.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) dropped 93 points, or 0.7%. Earlier in the session, the blue-chip index slumped more than 100 points. The S&P 500 (SPX) shed 10 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost 20 points, or 0.7%.

Gap (GPS, Fortune 500) shares tumbled 17.5% while Aeropostale (ARO)'s stock fell 14% after both companies lowered their full-year guidance, citing weaker demand and higher commodity costs. Gap shares were the worst performer on the S&P 500.

Other retailers followed suit, with shares of Macy's (M, Fortune 500), Urban Outfitters (URBN) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) all sliding more than 2%. Shares of Polo Ralph Lauren (RL, Fortune 500) and JC Penney (JCP, Fortune 500) fell more than 4%.

"When you see these retailers give numbers like this, you get concerned that the consumer is starting to give up some ground, with high oil prices and all," said Anthony Conroy, head trader at BNY ConvergEX.

Speaking of oil prices, crude rose 1.2% to settle at $100.10 a barrel. Prices have largely stayed around the $100 mark for the past few weeks.

Meanwhile, Greece's debt troubles returned to haunt investors after Fitch Ratings cut the debt-ridden country's credit rating by three notches. The downgrade pushed Greek bonds further into "highly speculative" junk territory.

* Value stocks are back in vogue

The disappointing corporate news coupled with several lackluster economic reports have kept investors sidelined in recent days.

For the week, the Dow slipped 0.7%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.3% and the Nasdaq slid 0.9%. All three indexes are down more than 2% for the month of May.

Stocks ended slightly higher Thursday, after a very choppy trading session.

Companies: After debuting Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange, shares of LinkedIn (LNKD) remained more than double their IPO price -- making the business-oriented social network one of the biggest tech IPOs since Google (GOOG, Fortune 500). LinkedIn shares fell 1.2% during its second day as a publicly-traded company.

Shares of Barnes & Noble (BKS, Fortune 500) jumped 30% after the bookseller announced a buyout proposal by Liberty Media for $17 per share in cash -- a nearly $1 billion buyout offer.

* Video - Barnes & Noble fairy tale ending

World markets: European stocks moved Friday. Britain's FTSE 100 edged lower 0.1%, the DAX in Germany fell 1.2% and France's CAC 40 lost 0.2%.

* Why Greece matters - StockTwits

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite shed less than 0.1% and Japan's Nikkei edged lower 0.1%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong rose 0.2%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar bounced against the euro following the downgrade on Greece. But the greenback lost ground versus the British pound. It was slightly higher versus Japanese yen.

Gold futures for June delivery rose $16.50, or 1.1%, to settle at $1,508.90 an ounce.

Silver futures for July delivery gained 25 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $35.18 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, with the yield slipping to 3.15% from 3.17% late Thursday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks took their direction from the dollar today. Given their inverse relationship of late, a bounce by the greenback meant a loss for the major equity averages.

The stock market slid to a loss of about 1% within 90 minutes of the open. Selling pressure was stoked by a sudden rally by the dollar, which climbed as much as 0.9%. Most of the greenback's gain came against the euro, which came under pressure amid rekindled concerns about fiscal conditions in both Greece and Spain, as well as worries about the European Central Bank's debt burden. Other reports called into question the growth prospects of Germany, which is the eurozone's largest economy.

Strength in the dollar also put pressure on commodities, which collectively tumbled to a 1.0% loss, as measured by the CRB Commodity Index.

Both stocks and commodities were able to rebound when the dollar began to grapple with some midsession selling pressure. About half of the dollar's gain was surrendered before it recovered to finish the trading day with a 0.8% gain.

Although the CRB Commodity Index was able to lock in a 0.7% gain for the day, the major equity averages failed to sustain their rebound. In turn, stocks rolled over and drifted lower into the close.

Weakness was relatively widespread, but defensive-oriented plays like utilities stocks (unch.) and telecom (-0.1%) were able to limit losses. Financials suffered the worst losses; as a group, they fell to a 1.5% loss.

Retailers were also weak. Downside guidance by apparel and accessories retailers Gap (GPS 19.22, -4.07) and Aeropsotale (ARO 18.30, -3.04) prompted a precipitous drop in their shares. Ann Taylor (ANN 29.09, -1.11) shares were imbued by weakness in the space, even though the company posted an upside earnings surprise and raised its sales forecast above what Wall Street had projected.

Barnes & Noble (BKS 18.33, +4.22) benefited from strong buying interest, however. The stock's surge came in response to news that Liberty Media (LBTYA 44.82, -0.23) offered to buy the company for $17 per share, which makes for a premium of about 20% of the prior session closing price of BKS.

Roughly one billion shares traded hands on the NYSE this session. On the surface it would appear that participation increased, but the increased share volume is actually due to the expiration of monthly options.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Unchanged: Utilities
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-0.1%), Consumer Staples (-0.3%), Energy (-0.3%), Tech (-0.7%), Health Care (-0.8%), Industrials (-1.0%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.0%), Materials (-1.0%), Financials (-1.5%)DJ30 -93.28 NASDAQ -19.99 NQ100 -0.8% R2K -0.7% SP400 -0.8% SP500 -10.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 851/1.78 bln/1725 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1019/1.00 bln/1965

3:30 pm : A midmorning rally by the dollar sent commodities on a retreat, but they were able to rally back and finish the week on a strong note. That has the CRB Commodity Index up 0.7%.

Oil had a whipsaw session that saw the energy component surrender an early gain to drop to about $96.40 per barrel before it rallied back to finish pit trade with a 1.2% gain at $100.12 per barrel.

Natural gas performed relatively well all session. Prices settled 3.4% higher at $4.30 per MMBtu.

As for precious metals, gold prices gained 1.2% to end the week at $1510.20 per ounce while silver prices added a relatively modest 0.4% to close the week out at $35.09 per ounce. DJ30 -69.78 NASDAQ -14.57 SP500 -7.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 924/1.39 bln/1637 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1102/690 mln/1864

3:00 pm : Stocks are on the backslide after coming within close reach of the flat line little more than an hour ago. Losses are still only about half of what they were when stocks traded at session lows.

The market's reversal coincides with a slight rebound by the dollar, which is now up 0.5% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Most of the greenback's gain has come against the euro, which was last quoted at $1.42 for a 0.8% loss. The euro's weakness comes amid renewed concerns about the fiscal health of Greece and Spain, as well as uncertainty regarding their options for shoring up finances. DJ30 -69.25 NASDAQ -13.84 SP500 -7.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1068/1.28 bln/1480 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1245/630 mln/1697

2:30 pm : The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to trade with a modest loss. The Dow Jones Transportation is also in the red; its loss currently stands at 0.2%. However, the Dow Jones Utility Average is up with a healthy 0.4% gain. Its strength stems from an apparent interest among investors for relatively safe stocks with high dividend yields.DJ30 -43.59 NASDAQ -8.21 SP500 -4.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1062/1.17 bln/1481 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1187/585 mln/1732

2:00 pm : Stocks recently stretched to fresh afternoon highs, but they have started to pull back a bit. Although the major equity averages remain in the red, the mood among market participants has improved markedly during the course of the past few hours. The improved tone of trade has helped bring stocks back in line with where they had started the week.DJ30 -24.52 NASDAQ -4.55 SP500 -3.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1086/1.09 bln/1440 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1270/550 mln/1646

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to rally. The effort comes as the dollar surrenders some more of its gain, which now stands at a modest 0.3%.

Treasuries haven't shown much of a reaction to the stock market's rally. Instead, the benchmark 10-year Note is still up with a slight gain. DJ30 -23.27 NASDAQ -5.35 SP500 -3.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 926/1.00 bln/1585 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1087/500 mln/1812

1:00 pm : A rally by the dollar stirred selling among both stocks and commodities this morning, but the greenback's pullback in early afternoon action has reduced pressure.

Lackluster action abroad and moderate strength in the dollar left stocks to start the session with slight losses, but a quick bounce by the greenback added to the stock market's downward momentum. The major equity averages were off by about 1% before they stabilized.

However, the dollar's decline from its session high to a gain of about 0.5% has helped stocks halve their losses over the course of the past hour. Defensive-oriented issues, like telecom (unch), utilities (unch), and consumer staples (-0.1%), have had solid support, but energy stocks have made one of the strongest moves by completely undoing a 1% loss.

Energy's rebound has been helped by a bounce in oil prices. Selling in the space had sent the energy component down from an early gain down to about $96.40 per barrel. Oil prices have since rallied back to $99.50 per barrel, which makes for a 0.6% gain.

The rest of the commodity space has also turned higher, taking the CRB Commodity Index to a 0.6% gain after it, too, had fallen to a loss in response to the dollar's early advance.

Retailers continue to have a rough session, however. Disappointing guidance from Gap (GPS 19.40, -3.89) and Aeropostale (ARO 18.01, -3.33) has weighed heavily on the two stocks, but Barnes & Noble (BKS 18.32, +4.21) has surged 30% in response to a takeout offer of $17 per share from Liberty Media. DJ30 -37.65 NASDAQ -9.53 SP500 -4.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 924/928 mln/1578 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1109/465 mln/1784

12:30 pm : A strong rebound effort has helped the major equity averages pare their losses. The move has taken shape as the dollar surrenders some of its gain in ealy afternoon trade -- the greenback is now up 0.5% against a basket of major foreign currencies.DJ30 -32.05 NASDAQ -8.74 SP500 -3.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 752/820 mln/1729 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 889/430 mln/1989

12:00 pm : The defensive-oriented utilities sector has made it back to the neutral line. It is this session's best performing sector.

Despite their stodginess, utilities stocks are also strong on a longer basis. Month to date, the sector is up 2.6%. It is up an even richer 8.3% year to date. For comparison, the S&P 500 is down 2.1% for the month, but up 6.1% for the year. DJ30 -87.52 NASDAQ -21.42 SP500 -8.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 692/725 mln/1765 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 847/390 mln/2001

11:30 am : Stocks have managed to make a modest move up from their session lows. Still, the overall tone of trade remains decidedly negative. As such, declining share volume outnumbers advancing share volume by more than 3-to-1.

Based on the market's underlying volume, it would appear that there is plenty of conviction behind today's selloff. However, the expiration of monthly options has increased the number of shares exchanging hands. That makes it difficult to accurately assess whether overall sentiment has truly soured. DJ30 -78.56 NASDAQ -21.37 SP500 -8.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 627/620 mln/1823 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 704/340 mln/2124

11:00 am : The major market averages appear to have stabilized after falling to losses of about 1%, but weakness remains widespread.

Retailers are having an especially challenging session. Specifically, shares of Gap (GPS 19.35, -3.94) have dropped about 17% to a two-month low following the company's downside guidance. Apparel retailer Aeropostale (ARO 17.34, -4.00) set a fresh 52-week low with a 20% drop that came amid disappointment over its forecast. Those precipitous drops make the 2% loss of the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 52.32, -1.00) look modest. DJ30 -103.00 NASDAQ -25.26 SP500 -11.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 534/515 mln/1874 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 584/290 mln/2224

10:30 am : With the dollar index ~0.8% higher at 75.66, and near session highs currently, most commodities are trading in the red this morning.

The energy markets, excluding natural gas, and some of the soft commodities (cotton -2.6%, cocoa -2.2%, orange juice -2.2%, coffee -1.2%) are the worst performing commodities in current trade.

Crude has been selling off this morning, falling below the $97.00 level. Currently, the energy component is 1.8% lower at $97.16/barrel. Natural gas is up around 0.9% at $4.20/MMBtu.

Precious metals are lower this morning with silver well ahead of gold. Between ~9-10am EST, silver fell over 3%, but remained above $34. It has since recovered about 1.5% of its losses, but is still down 0.7% at $34.70/oz. Gold is back into positive territory and is now up 0.1% lower at $1494.10/oz.

Overnight, agriculture commodities were mixed with corn futures up only one cent at $7.49/bushel, while wheat declined 10 cents (or -1.2%) to $8.02/bushel and soybeans lost 4 cents to $13.76/bushel.DJ30 -83.66 NASDAQ -15.35 SP500 -8.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 619/368.6 mln/1691 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 567/227.9 mln/2169

10:00 am : Stocks continue to descend deeper into negative territory. The slide comes in response to a rally by the dollar, which is now up 0.7% to a fresh session high. In a similar vein, the dollar's bounce has sent the CRB Commodity Index down to a 0.8% loss.

Weakness in both the broad equity market and the commodities complex has exacerbated weakness among natural resource plays, like materials stocks and energy stocks. Pressure against those two sectors has them down 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively. DJ30 -71.52 NASDAQ -14.00 SP500 -7.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 793/185 mln/1433 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 759/150 mln/1857

09:45 am : The major market averages have slipped in the opening minutes of trade. The downturn has been broad based; in fact, there isn't a single sector sporting a meaningful gain.

Energy stocks have been hit especially hard. The sector is already down 0.8%. Part of that is attributable to a sharp reversal in crude oil prices, which have dropped to $97.31 per barrel for a 1.6% loss, amid the dollar's climb to a 0.5% gain. DJ30 -29.66 NASDAQ -4.65 SP500 -4.12

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.60. The stock market is essentially unchanged for the week. It is expected to remain so for the first part of today's session, given the tepid tone of premarket trade. A stronger dollar has kept things in check ahead of the open, although it has drifted off of its morning high so that it now leads a collection of competing currencies by less than 0.3%. Mixed action among the major markets abroad has made for a rather muddled backdrop. An absence of data has also limited the number of clues available for traders. Still, share volume could get a bump today, due to the expiration of monthly options.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.10. Crude oil prices are up a tame 0.4% at $99.35 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Natural gas trades at $4.18 per MMBtu; that translates into a 0.4% gain. Gold prices are up 0.7% to $1503.50 per ounce. Silver prices are up 0.8 to $35.19 per ounce. Although strength among commodities is moderate, gains come in the face of a stronger dollar, which was last quoted with a 0.3% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.90. The EuroStoxx 50 is up 0.2%, but Europe's major bourses have been muddling along in recent trade. Specifically, Germany's DAX is down 0.6%. Siemens AG (SI) is a primary source of weakness after an arbiter determined that Siemens should compensate Areva for prematurely leaving a partnership that the pair had formed. Deutsche Bank (DB) is also under pressure. According to data, Germany's PPI for April increased by 1.0%, which is an increase from the 0.4% advance that had been recorded for March. France's CAC is off by 0.2%, although advancing issues outnumber decliners there. ArcelorMittal (MT) has weighed heavily on trade. Michelin has also been a drag. Technip SA has been a source of strength, though. Britain's FTSE has managed to maintain a 0.2% gain. BP Plc (BP) is a leader there, following its settlement with MOEX Offshore.

Action in Asia was generally mixed. Japan's Nikkei logged a loss of only 0.1%. Power companies like Kansai Electric and Chubu Electric weighed heavily on overall trade. Embattled Tokyo Electric Power traded with strength, however. KDDI also offered leadership. Just one day after Japan reported another decline in economic activity, the country's central bank announced that it will leave its target interest rate unchanged at 0.1%. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed the week on a flat note. It was also weakened by power-related plays. Materials issues offered support, though. Hong Kong's Hang Seng mustered a 0.2% gain in its final session of the week. China Unicom was a leader.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.10. Strength in the dollar and lackluster action abroad have made for a tepid tone to premarket trade. The latest round of earnings announcements hasn't really done anything to bolster buying interest either. Retailers Gap (GPS) and Aeropostale (ARO) both issued downside guidance. Their shares have dropped sharply ahead of the open. Ann Taylor (ANN) posted an upside earnings surprise and offered a solid outlook, but it has been unable to escape premarket selling pressure. Today's economic calendar is empty, but despite that there could be some additional volatility and share volume ushered in with the expiration of monthly options.

06:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.50.

06:28 am : Nikkei...9607.08...-13.70...-0.10%. Hang Seng...23199.39...+36.00...+0.20%.

06:28 am : FTSE...5994.99...+39.00...+0.70%. DAX...7374.84...+16.60...+0.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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