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 Post subject: May 18th Wednesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +1.40
PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2011 9:48 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +1.40 points or $140.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=852.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image Bloomberg (YouTube Video) - U.S. Stocks Rise on Easy Fed Policy, Commodities Rebound

May 18 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Cali Carlin reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. Stocks rose, snapping a three-day drop, as the Federal Reserve signaled continued low interest rates, commodities rebounded and earnings at companies including Dell Inc. beat analyst estimates.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Snap 3-Day Losing Streak
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer
May 18, 2011: 4:49 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Tech shares and energy stocks helped push the broader market higher on Wednesday, halting a three-day losing streak for the Dow and S&P 500.

Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) was the best performer on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Late Tuesday, the PC maker reported record earnings even as PC sales slumped.

And a more than 3% jump in oil prices boosted shares in the energy sector, including Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500), Tesoro (TSO, Fortune 500) and Cabot Oil (COG). The Energy SPDR (XLE), an exchange-traded fund which tracks several energy companies including Exxon and Chevron, rose nearly 3%.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 81 points, or 0.7%, to close at 12,560; the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 12 points, or 0.9%, to 1,341; and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) added 32 points, or 1.1%, to end at 2,815.

Oil prices jumped $3.19, or 3.3%, to $100.10 a barrel, after the Energy Department's weekly oil inventory report showed U.S. crude supplies remained unchanged last week. Analysts had expected an increase of 550,000-barrels.

"This was the first non-bearish inventory report we've seen in a month," said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group.
0:00 / 1:04 Dell's stock surge

Investor enthusiasm has dampened in recent weeks as both stocks and commodities have pulled back from recent highs and Wall Street braces for the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's $600 billion bond-buying program at the end of June.

"There's been a legitimate downshift in growth expectations, particularly since lot of the recent data has been softer than expected," said Mike Pond, head of fixed income with Barclays Capital.

* The breakdown in cyclicals - StockTwits

There are many uncertainties driving this sentiment. The United States hit its debt ceiling on Monday and Congress continues to battle over the nation's budget.

Stocks closed mixed on Tuesday as investors digested a weak outlook from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500), a grim read on the housing market and an unexpected drop in April industrial production.

Bonds: As concerns of a possible economic slowdown have built up, investors have moved into in less-risky assets. Earlier in the day, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note traded at a yield of 3.11% -- near its lowest level of the year.

"In our view, when QE2 concludes we will have a fairly brisk slowdown in economic growth especially as oil and commodity prices have given the consumer little hope," said Tom Di Galoma, head of fixed income trading with Oppenheimer & Co.

Di Galoma said a sub-3% 10-year note is highly likely "given all the economic uncertainty."

The price on the 10-year note edged lower as Wednesday's stock market rally gained momentum, with the yield rising to 3.17%.

* Geithner: Default is not an option

Economy: The Federal Reserve's April meeting minutes showed mild divisions among the Fed's key central bankers on when to begin raising interest rates and whether inflation is a real threat. Those divisions did not impact voting, as all bankers voted unanimously to keep interest rates low and end QE2 on schedule.

Companies: Target (TGT, Fortune 500) posted earnings per share of 99 cents, up 9.8% from the same quarter a year ago. Sales also rose and both numbers topped forecasts. Despite the good news, shares fell 1.5%.

Office supply giant Staples (SPLS, Fortune 500) reported a 2% rise in sales to $6.2 billion, and net income rose of $198 million. The results were just shy of forecasts and the company issued a tepid outlook, sending shares down 15% - making it the worst performer on the S&P 500.

Deere & Co. (DE, Fortune 500) reported a 25% jump in sales to $8.9 billion, citing strong demand for large farm machinery, particularly in the United States, Canada and Brazil. Still, shares fell 0.5%.

Hershey (HSY, Fortune 500) shares dropped 3% after the company announced Hershey Chief Executive David West was leaving the company to join privately-held Del Monte Foods.

Aflac's (AFL, Fortune 500) shares fell 7% after its CEO Dan Amos gave an earnings forecast that fell short of analysts' expectations.

The New York Times Co. said Wednesday that it added 100,000 paid subscribers after it installed its paywall at the end of March, more than analysts had expected. Shares jumped 9.5%.

* Watch out for a driving tax!

Currencies and commodities: The dollar edged lower against the euro and the Japanese yen, but gained on the British pound.

Gold futures for June delivery rose $13.70, or 0.9%, to $1493.70 an ounce.

Silver futures for July delivery jumped $1.59, or 4.8%, to $35.08 an ounce.

World markets: European stocks closed moderately higher. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1.1%, the DAX in Germany rose 0.7% and France's CAC 40 closed up 0.9%.

Asian markets ended higher. The Shanghai Composite added 0.7%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong added 0.5% and Japan's Nikkei rose 1%.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:45 pm : Stocks fought threw sluggish trade in the early going to stage impressive gains and settle at session highs. The move was led by natural resource plays.

In the prior session, stocks rebounded back to the lower end of their recent trading range, but struggled to generate enough momentum to make a gain. Stocks were mired near the neutral line again this morning while participants monitored overseas trade and a modest upturn by the dollar. However, the market's unwillingness to turn lower garnered additional support, which eventually led to a gradual climb.

Commodities were especially strong, suggesting a willingness among participants to return to risk, for now at least. Oil prices spiked more than 3% to close pit trade above $100 per barrel. It was partially helped by a bullish inventory report. Overall, the CRB Commodity Index climbed 2.3%.

Strength among commodities helped materials stocks and energy stocks outperform. Both sectors advanced on the order of 2%.

Dell (DELL 16.75, +0.85) was one of today's top performers. The stock's spike to a 52-week followed a strong earnings report and forecast.

Deere & Co. (DE 86.50, -0.46) also posted a strong quarterly report and forecast, but its shares dropped at the open. The stock eventually improved its position, but still settled with a modest loss.

Shares of Target (TGT 49.96, -0.82) also had to fight through selling interest in the wake of an upside earnings surprise, but Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 75.69, +2.52) rallied to a new 52-week high following its better-than-expected earnings report.

Advancing Sectors: Materials (+2.1%), Energy (+2.0%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.2%), Industrials (+1.1%), Tech (+0.8%), Health Care (+0.8%), Financials (+0.5%), Telecom (+0.3%), Consumer Staples (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: Utilities (-0.3%)DJ30 +80.60 NASDAQ +31.79 NQ100 +0.8% R2K +1.6% SP400 +1.5% SP500 +11.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1914/1.88 bln/667 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2351/882 mln/658

3:30 pm : The risk switch was turned back to the on position today as commodities, for the most part, rallied across the board. June crude oil surged 3.3% to close at $100.12 per barrel. Crude oil's gains were a culmination of a couple of things, including overnight weakness in the dollar, the risk trade being turned back on, as well as wild fires in Canada near the oil-sands that have caused the shut-in of some production as a precautionary measure. Concerns over the possibility of further shut-in for production helped crude oil move higher. June natural gas ended up 0.4% to $4.20 per MMBtu.

Overnight weakness in the dollar helped precious metals move higher initially. Both metals extended their respective rallies heading into the afternoon session, where gold put in highs at $1499.70 and silver at $35.55. Both metals pulled back modestly from those highs before closing. June gold gained 1.1% to finish at $1495.80 per ounce, while July silver rallied for 5.2% to end at $35.20 per ounce. DJ30 +80.75 NASDAQ +31.70 SP500 +11.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1807/1.5 bln/749 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2257/614.6 mln/730

3:00 pm : Gains remain solid as stocks head into the final hour of today's trade. The stock market's strength persists in the face of a modest gain by the greenback, which was last quoted with a 0.3% edge over the euro and a 0.6% lead over the sterling pound. The two foreign currencies were last quoted at $1.423 and $1.615, respectively.

Overall share volume hasn't been very impressive this session. With just 60 minutes to trade, barely a half billion shares have exchanged hands on the NYSE. The anemic pace of trade is consistent with action in recent weeks, however. DJ30 +53.31 NASDAQ +27.04 SP500 +8.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1757/1.38 bln/783 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2234/535 mln/738

2:30 pm : Energy stocks have pulled back in recent trade. The sector was just up about 2.5% 30 minutes ago, but now it trades with a 1.8% gain. That puts the sector in line with what materials stocks have achieved.

Meanwhile, large-cap tech stocks have managed to move higher in afternoon action. Strength among the likes of Dell (DELL 16.85, +0.95) and Apple (AAPL 340.31, +4.17) has helped give the Nasdaq Composite a nice lead over its two counterparts. DJ30 +66.14 NASDAQ +30.28 SP500 +9.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1773/1.24 bln/740 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2305/475 mln/660

2:00 pm : Stocks have broken out of their recent trading range to trade at new session highs. The move comes amid broad based buying interest, but energy stocks (+2.5%) remain the best overall performers by a considerable margin.

Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting are coming across newswires. An initial glance suggests a slightly hawkish tone, but there hasn't been any kind of distinguishable reaction among stocks or the dollar. Treasuries are largely unchanged from recent levels, too. DJ30 +72.92 NASDAQ +28.81 SP500 +11.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1717/1.13 bln/782 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2207/425 mln/741

1:30 pm : Stocks have gradually extended their gains to set a fresh session high. The move has put increased pressure on Treasuries, such that the benchmark 10-year Note is now down almost half of a point. That has taken the Note's yield up to 3.16%. Just yesterday the Note's yield set a 2011 low near 3.10%.DJ30 +51.72 NASDAQ +22.57 SP500 +8.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1719/1.03 bln/761 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2246/391 mln/688

1:00 pm : The major equity averages are up with varied gains, but momentum has slowed with the stock market coming into close reach of last week's closing low. Minutes from the latest FOMC policy meeting are also due in an hour.

Early action was rather choppy. Participants made note of the dollar's advance against the euro and sterling pound after the Bank of England announced that it will maintain its target interest rate of 0.5% and keep its 200 billion pound asset purchase plan unchanged.

Despite the greenback's gain, commodities have performed well all session. Oil prices actually extended their bounce on the back of a bullish inventory report. The energy component now trades at $100.55 per barrel with a 3.8% gain.

Oil's spike has bolstered the energy sector, which is up 2.2%. Favor for natural resource plays has also helped lift the materials sector, which is up 1.6%.

Tech stocks are up modestly after lagging yesterday. Dell (DELL 16.77, +0.88) has helped win support for the sector following a strong earnings report and forecast. Renewed pressure against Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 36.19, -0.72) has the stock down to a new 52-week low.

Deere & Co. (DE 85.40, -1.56) also posted a strong quarterly report and forecast, but its shares have fallen under pressure. Some criticism has been made over the company's narrower margins, though.

Retailers Target (TGT 48.87, -1.91) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 74.85, +1.68) also announced better-than-expected earnings results of their own. However, shares of the two have diverged, which has limited strength in the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 53.29, +0.24).DJ30 +36.34 NASDAQ +19.00 SP500 +7.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1663/945 mln/798 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2178/353 mln/725

12:30 pm : Stocks have been range bound for the past hour or so. The pause comes as the major equity averages come into contact with the lower end of last week's trading range. Whether stocks breakout and extend the move or turn lower could offer participants directional cues for the stock market's near-term trend.DJ30 +28.98 NASDAQ +16.39 SP500 +6.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1632/864 mln/834 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2131/322 mln/752

12:00 pm : Despite the stock market's modest advance today, shares of Deere & Co. (DE 85.68, -1.28) are down with a sizable loss. The stocks slide comes despite an upside earnings surprise for the latest quarter and strong forecast for fiscal 2011. The action in shares of DE comes amid a spike in share volume, which is already on pace for one of the stock's highest single daily volume tallies of this year.

Meanwhile, Dell (DELL 16.72, +0.83) has spiked to a fresh 52-week high following its latest quarterly report and forecast, both of which exceeded what Wall Street had forecasted. DJ30 +27.09 NASDAQ +16.56 SP500 +6.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1610/775 mln/816 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2099/285 mln/751

11:30 am : The energy sector has rallied to a 1.8% gain on the back of sharply higher oil prices. Oil prices had already been up solidly this morning, but a bullish inventory report has taken the energy component up to $99.60 per barrel, which makes for a 2.8% gain. Oil services stocks like Halliburton (HAL 46.70, +1.37), Baker Hughes (BHI 70.62, +1.76), and National Oilwell Varco (NOV 67.05, +1.65) are sporting the most impressive gains.DJ30 +18.31 NASDAQ +13.83 SP500 +5.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1594/670 mln/795 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2092/240 mln/748

11:00 am : Stocks have worked their way higher in recent trade. For the second straight session, the Dow is lagging its counterparts. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 36.17, -0.74) has been the primary culprit in the Dow's relative weakness. The stock's loss today takes shares back to the 52-week low that they set in the prior session following a disappointing earnings forecast.

To a lesser extent, Wal-Mart (WMT 55.05, -0.49) was also a drag on the Dow yesterday. It is weak again, even though analysts at Citigroup raised their target price for the stock. DJ30 +16.23 NASDAQ +13.64 SP500 +5.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1590/531 mln/735 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1992/190 mln/789

10:35 am : Commodities have had a strong morning, thus far. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is up 1.4%.

Crude oil prices recently extended their climb on the back of the latest weekly inventory report. Crude oil inventories had a draw of 15,000 barrels, which contrasts with the expected build of 1.7 million barrels. Oil prices were last quoted at $99.15 per barrel, up 2.3%. Prices had been just shy of $99 per barrel in the moments that preceded the report.

Elsewhere in the commodities complex, natural gas prices are up 1.0% to $4.29 per MMBtu. Meanwhile, precious metals are performing well as gold prices gain 1.2% to trade at $1498 per ounce and silver sports a 5.0% gain at $35.15 per ounce. DJ30 +7.79 NASDAQ +13.14 SP500 +4.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1428/400 mln/833 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1826/140 mln/918

10:00 am : Early trade remains choppy as the broader market displays an unwillingness to follow the lead of energy stocks, which continue to sport a 1% gain, as a group.

Utilities are at the other end of the spectrum. The defensive-oriented sector is down with a 0.7% loss as Duke Energy (DUK 19.09, -0.39) drops dramatically on the day of its dividend payment. Based on Duke's current share price, its dividend translates to a yield of more than 5%. DJ30 23.16 NASDAQ +3.65 SP500 +0.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1444/165 mln/655 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1721/65 mln/915

09:45 am : The major market averages are mixed in the first few minutes of trade, but energy stocks have run ahead to a collective gain of 1%. The sector's bounce comes as oil prices push up to a 1.7% gain at $98.50 per barrel.

Financials showed leadership yesterday, but the sector is lagging this morning with a 0.3% loss. That comes as bank stocks and shares of financial services providers buckle following their sharp bounce in the prior session. Wells Fargo (WFC 28.63, -0.12), Bank of America (BAC 11.85, -0.05), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 43.69, -0.12) are all in the red. DJ30 -4.77 NASDAQ +7.55 SP500 +1.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1202/48 mln/703 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1492/30 mln/905

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.80. Stock futures have moved up from their morning lows, but a flat start to trade still looks like it is in the offing. Mixed interest comes in the wake of strong earnings reports and forecasts from Dell (DELL) and Deere (DE) along with varied gains by the major bourses and averages abroad. Modest strength in the dollar may be limiting broad market interest ahead of the open, but the greenback's gain has done little to dissuade buying among commodities. Strength in the commodity complex has the CRB Commodity Index up 0.8%. Silver is a top performer in the commodity space as it sports a 2.9% gain at $34.45 per ounce. Oil prices are up an impressive 1.1% to $98 per barrel ahead of weekly inventory data at 10:30 AM ET. FOMC meeting minutes are also on today's calendar -- they are scheduled for a 2:00 PM ET release.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.60. Oil prices are up 1.1% to $98 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Buying interest in the energy component comes ahead of weekly inventory data at 10:30 AM ET. Natural gas prices are up a solid 1.0% to $4.29 per MMBtu. Precious metals are also performing well. Specifically, gold prices have gained 0.8% to trade at $1492 per ounce. Meanwhile, silver prices have spiked 2.9% to $34.47 per ounce. Overall action has the CRB Commodity Index up 0.9%. This all comes in the face ofa modest bounce by the dollar.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.80. Europe's major bourses are up after enduring a string of losses. Despite the bid, they have surrendered some of their gains in recent trade. As such, Germany's DAX is now up just 0.2%. Meanwhile, France's CAC is clinging to a 0.4% gain. Lafarge and GDF Suez have been primary sources of support, helping to offset weakness in shares of Alcatel-Lucent (ALU). Britain's FTSE is up with a relatively impressive 0.5% gain following the decision by the Bank of England to keep its interest target unchanged at 0.5% and to leave its asset purchase plan at 200 billion pounds. The sterling pound has lost ground against the greenback, though; it was last quoted with a 0.6% loss at $1.615. BHP Billiton (BHP) announced that it has received regulatory approval to proceed with its deepwater drilling plans in the Gulf of Mexico.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei put together a 1.0% gain. Tech plays performed well following a strong report from Dell (DELL), although the offense of the latest report from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) lingered. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group provided support, as well. It climbed more than 3%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng advanced 0.5% as its 200-day moving average provided price support. China's Shanghai Composite staged a 0.7% gain, even though more interest rate hikes may be on the horizon.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.60. The stock market rebounded yesterday afternoon, but it was unable to overcome resistance at the unchanged mark. Broad market stock futures are now mired near the neutral line ahead of the open. Asia's major averages mostly moved higher overnight, but Europe's bourses are more mixed this morning. The greenback has garnered modest buying interest, relative to the euro and sterling pound. The pound is currently down 0.6% to $1.614 after the Bank of England opted to keep its target rate at 0.5% and leave its asset purchase plan unchanged. Minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting will be released today; they are expected at 2:00 PM ET. The latest round of earnings features better-than-expected results and strong guidance from both Deere (DE) and Dell (DELL). Retailers Target (TGT) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) also topped consensus earnings estimates.

06:36 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.70.

06:36 am : Nikkei...9662.08...+95.10...+1.00%. Hang Seng...23011.14...+110.10...+0.50%.

06:36 am : FTSE...5912.73...+51.70...+0.90%. DAX...7315.02...+58.40...+0.80%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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