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 Post subject: May 16th Monday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +10.30
PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 6:52 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
051611-wrbtrader-PnL-Blotter-Profit-1030.png
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +10.30 points or $1030.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=848.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image Bloomberg (YouTube Video) - U.S. Stocks Retreat as Investors Watch Europe Debt Talks

May 16 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Cali Carlin reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks retreated, extending a two-week slump for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as Greece sought additional bailout funds and a report showed that manufacturing growth in the New York region cooled.

* Video - Gross Says Geithner Gave U.S. Debt Limit `Wiggle Room'

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks End Lower After Fleeting Advance
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ben Rooney
May 16, 2011: 4:15 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks ended a choppy session lower Monday as investors remain focused on oil prices and the debt crisis in Europe.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 45 points, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost 8 points, or 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) declined 45 points, or 1.5%.

Stocks opened lower following a dour manufacturing report and weaker-than-expected earnings from home improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW, Fortune 500). After posting gains in the morning, stocks fell anew in the afternoon.

Trading has been volatile recently as commodities such as oil and silver have fallen sharply from record highs. Investors are also bracing for the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program at the end of June.

Just two weeks ago, stocks were sitting at their highest levels in nearly three years. But all three major indexes are down almost 2% in May.

"The market is in a wait-and-see mode after a very volatile week last week," said Kate Warne, chief investment strategist with Edward Jones.

* Video - Rappin' in defense of Wall Street

Warne said the choppy trading could continue this week as the focus is likely to remain on commodities and the outlook for global economic growth. Investors are also hoping quarterly results from Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) due early Tuesday will help shed some light on consumer sentiment, she added.

Oil prices, which had been trading at $115 a barrel not long ago, were down over 2% to below $98 a barrel. That weighed on shares of Exxon (XOM, Fortune 500) and Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500).

Despite the broad-based retreat, shares of Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), Travelers (TRV, Fortune 500) and American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) all rose about 1%.

Aside from Intel, shares of big technology companies were among the worst performers. The selling was not being driven by any particular catalyst, but many tech shares have fallen near key technical levels, said Dave Rovelli, managing director of U.S. trading at Canaccord Adams.

"We've had incredible run and now that earnings are all done people are taking profits and there are no buyers," he said.

* Prepare for a Fed hike -- in 2018

The head of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, was denied bail by a judge in New York, where he was arrested over the weekend for allegedly sexually assaulting a housekeeper in his hotel room.

The arrest comes at a critical time for the IMF, which is heavily involved in the bailout of Greece and other European countries. But investors said the scandal is not likely to derail efforts to stabilize shaky economies in Europe.

"The situation is not a market altering experience, but it is definitely an embarrassing one," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

In the United States, the debate over long-term fiscal deficits and government spending is heating up.

The U.S. government officially hit its legal borrowing limit, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told Congress. He went on to urge Congress to raise the country's legal borrowing limit soon "to protect the full faith and credit of the United States and avoid catastrophic economic consequences for citizens."

Warne said she expects Congress "to come to its senses" and raise the debt limit, but not without some posturing by lawmakers from both parties.

* America's CEOs: Jobs outlook better, but...

Economy: The Empire Manufacturing survey came out before the start of trading. The regional reading for general business conditions for manufacturing slipped to 11.9, much lower than the reading of 18 than the consensus estimate of economists from Briefing.com. The index was 21.7 in April.

The National Association of Homebuilders said its May index of builder confidence was unchanged from the previous month at 16, as expected.

Companies: A number of major retailers report earnings results this week.

Shares of home improvement chain Lowe's (LOW, Fortune 500) fell 3%, after the company reported earnings that fell short of forecasts and reigned in its forecast.

Department store J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500) reported a profit of 28 cents per share, topping expectations by 4 cents. Shares slipped 2%.

Also, the NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. (NDAQ) and IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) said they are withdrawing their bid to acquire NYSE Euronext (NYX, Fortune 500), following discussions with the antitrust division of the U.S. Department of Justice

World markets: In Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 ended flat. The DAX in Germany fell 0.2% and France's CAC 40 tumbled 0.7%.

Asian markets ended the session lower. The Shanghai Composite shed 0.8%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 1.4%, and Japan's Nikkei shaved 0.9%.

Currencies: The dollar fell against its main trading partners, including the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.

Oil for June delivery was down $2.28 to settle at $97.37 a barrel.

Sliding oil prices have started to translate into some relief at the pump. The national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline decreased six tenths of a cent to $3.955 -- the fourth consecutive decline, according to AAA.

Gold futures for June delivery fell $3 to settle at $1,490.60 an ounce. And silver for July delivery fell 88 cents to $34.12 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged up, pushing the yield down to 3.15%.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks were mixed for most of the morning, but an upturn by the dollar and weakness among tech stocks encouraged selling. Pressure was most pronounced against the Nasdaq, which dropped to its lowest level in almost one month.

The tone of early trade was lackluster. Losses abroad and news that IMF managing director Strauss-Kahn was arrested ahead of an important meeting undermined sentiment. A downturn in the dollar stirred up some buying interest, but the greenback eventually bounced back so that it ended the day with a tepid loss of 0.2%.

The dollar started to pare losses at about the same time that the Nasdaq failed to push into positive territory. The broader market endured a more gradual decline, but the Nasdaq suffered a sharper slide that left it with a loss that was more than double that of the S&P 500 and about four times that of the Dow.

Large-cap tech stocks weighed most heavily on the Nasdaq, which closed just above its 50-day moving average.

Consumer discretionary stocks also came under sharp pressure. The sector's 1.4% decline came as Lowe's Companies (LOW 24.84, -0.92) dropped to a three-month low following a disappointing quarterly report, which featured an earnings miss and disappointing forecast. Retailer JC Penney (JCP 37.21, -1.23) gapped up to a two-year high following an upside earnings surprise and strong outlook, but the stock quickly rolled over.

Financials had lagged last week, but traded with relative strength for most of this session. The sector's slide was limited to a fractional loss amid support from consumer finance stocks following the release of several monthly card metric reports.

Advancing Sectors: Health Care (+0.1%)
Unchanged: Utilities, Consumer Staples
Declining Sectors: Tech (-1.5%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.4%), Telecom (-0.8%), Energy (-0.8%), Industrials (-0.4%), Materials (-0.4%), Financials (-0.1%)DJ30 -47.38 NASDAQ -46.16 NQ100 -1.7% R2K -1.5% SP400 -0.9% SP500 -8.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 528/2.08 bln/2085 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 957/904 mln/2033

3:30 pm : June crude oil settled lower by 2.3% to $97.37 per barrel. A selloff in gasoline futures, to the tune of 4.5%, weighed on crude oil throughout the afternoon session. A weaker dollar had little bearing on crude's movement after it was unable to trade above the flat line. June natural gas ended up 1.6% to $4.32 per MMBtu, after it traded to its best levels of the session heading into the close of pit trade.

Weakness in the dollar initially helped precious metals move higher, but both metals pulled back, after trading to their respective highs, despite continued weakness in the greenback. June gold shed 0.2% to close at $1490.60 per ounce, while July silver fell 2.5% to end at $34.11 per ounce. DJ30 -27.40 NASDAQ -38.41 SP500 -5.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 672/1.6 bln/1911 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1106/614.8 mln/1860

3:00 pm : The Nasdaq is back at a new session low. Its counterparts are at their lowest levels of the afternoon, but not quite back at the depths that were set this morning.

Share volume has been unimpressive this session. Only an hour remains in today's trade, and just a half billion shares have traded hands on the NYSE so far today. The slugghis pace of trade keeps with the trends of the past several weeks, though. DJ30 -19.64 NASDAQ -36.61 SP500 -4.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 682/1.44 bln/1897 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1108/520 mln/1841

2:30 pm : Sellers have redoubled their efforts in response to the dollar's upturn, which has left the greenback down a relatively tame 0.3% against a collection of competing currencies. Stocks are now back near afternoon lows.

Even though stocks have been under pressure this afternoon, Treasuries haven't attracted much buying interest. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note remains mired near the neutral line. DJ30 -15.78 NASDAQ -33.60 SP500 -3.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 821/1.32 bln/1734 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1353/469 mln/1574

2:00 pm : Stocks have bounced off of their afternoon lows, but the Nasdaq is still down 1%. Tech stocks, which are collectively down 1%, continue to hamper it.

Consumer discretionary stocks aren't faring much better. The sector is off by 0.8%. Wal-Mart (WMT 55.96, +0.24) has won some support ahead of its latest quarterly report, which will be posted tomorrow morning. The world's largest retailer is expected to announce earnings of $0.95 per share. Comparable sales at its U.S. stores are expected to have fallen by about 1% for the quarter. DJ30 -0.53 NASDAQ -28.45 SP500 -2.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 794/1.22 bln/1737 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1312/435 mln/1604

1:30 pm : Increased selling has sunk the Nasdaq to a new session low. Its loss is now about triple that of the S&P 500, which is now at its lowest level since this morning. Selling comes amid an upturn by the dollar, which is now down less than 0.4% for the day.

Financials had been outperforming earlier, but the sector's leadership has been challenged by the recent bout of selling interest. In fact, the financial sector has had its recent gain cut in half so that it is now up less than 0.4% for the day. DJ30 -5.53 NASDAQ -29.62 SP500 -2.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 689/1.13 bln/1848 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1136/400 mln/1773

1:05 pm : The major equity averages remain mixed as tech stocks weigh on the Nasdaq and financials prop up both the S&P 500 and the Dow.

Stocks started the session in negative territory as participants reacted to sizable losses among the major averages abroad. Sentiment was also undermined by news that IMF managing director Strauss-Kahn was arrested ahead of an important meeting with eurozone finance ministers.

However, a downturn in the dollar helped relieve some early pressure. The dollar is still down 0.5% against a basket of major foreign currencies.

Large-cap tech stocks have come under pressure this session. The sector's slide has weighed on the Nasdaq, which has underperformed its counterparts for the past couple of hours.

The financial sector lagged last week, but today it is showing leadership. The sector's 0.7% gain has been helped by a sharp bounce in consumer finance stocks like American Express (AXP 50.34, +0.85), which posted a favorable card metrics report for April. Shares of AXP set a new two-year high earlier today.

Retailer JC Penney (JCP 37.35, -1.09) has rolled over after setting its own two-year high following its upside earnings surprise and strong guidance. That, along with an earnings miss and disappointing forecast from home improvement retailer Lowe's Companies (LOW 24.96, -0.80), has the consumer discretionary sector is down 0.6%.DJ30 +26.72 NASDAQ -17.73 SP500 +1.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 848/1.00 bln/1662 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1422/360 mln/1469

12:30 pm : The broad equity market is mixed, but airline stocks are soaring this session. As such, the Dow Jones Airline Index is up 2.4%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Transportation Index is up 0.3%. Lower oil prices have helped; the price of the energy component has been in the red all session and currently trades with a 1.6% loss at $98.10 per barrel.DJ30 +17.82 NASDAQ -19.47 SP500 +0.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 785/905 mln/1700 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1349/330 mln/1544

12:05 pm : Weakness among large-cap tech stocks continues to take down the Nasdaq, which now sits at a new session low. Its counterparts continue to cling to narrow gains.

Financials remain a source of support for both the Dow and the S&P 500. American Express (AXP 50.45, +0.96) has been an especially strong boon. The stock's breakout to a new two-year high has come on the back of its April card metrics report, which featured a decline in its net write-off rate and loans 30 days past due. DJ30 +20.06 NASDAQ -17.34 SP500 +0.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 900/800 mln/1564 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1470/300 mln/1405

11:30 am : The Nasdaq recently made a push toward higher ground, but it was unable to poke into positive territory. The tech-rich Nasdaq has been hampered by heavyweights like of Apple (AAPL 337.83, -2.67), Microsoft (MSFT 24.85, -0.18), and Google (GOOG 523.58, -5.97). Google filed this morning a mixed securities shelf offering for an intermediate amount.DJ30 +34.93 NASDAQ -7.44 SP500 +3.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1163/663 mln/1267 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1719/252 mln/1112

11:00 am : Stocks have gradually grinded their way higher. Overall action remains mixed, though.

Financials are showing leadership after lagging last week. The sector is now up 0.9% after it fell 1.5% on Friday. Banks have been the biggest source of strength to the sector; they are collectively up 1.2%, as measured by the KBW Bank Index.

Consumer discretionary stocks have been lagging today. The sector's 0.5% loss makes it one of the worst performing sectors. J.C. Penney (JCP 38.92, +0.48) has been a strong performer in the sector, though. Its bounce comes on the back of an upside earnings surprise and strong forecast. DJ30 +24.82 NASDAQ -5.46 SP500 +4.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 960/530 mln/1447 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1498/200 mln/1272

10:30 am : Commodities are mixed this morning, while the dollar index extended recent losses and hit new session lows. Currently, it's down 0.5% and this has provided price support to select commodities.

In the energy markets, RBOB Gasoline is down about 2.5% and is one of the worst performing commodities. Crude oil has been trading in the red all session. The energy component hit session lows of $97.70/barrel overnight. It has since recovered about $1/barrel in losses, but still sits in negative territory at $98.72/barrel, down 1%.

Natural gas gained steam just over a few hours ago and has put in a nice trend higher, which pushed it into positive territory. It hit new session highs of $4.38/MMBtu 20 minutes ago and is now up 1.1% at $4.36/MMBtu.

Precious metals are higher, but showing modest gains. Silver was in the red all session, before rising into positive territory a short while ago. Both gold and silver have been on an uptrend since around 7:00am EST. Gold is now up 0.6% at $1502.40/oz. Silver is 0.4% higher at $35.14/oz.
DJ30 -9.23 NASDAQ -9.44 SP500 +1.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 695/370.0 mln/1645 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1157/144.6 mln/1568

10:00 am : Early trade is still choppy. That's mostly owed to a lack of leadership this morning.

Materials stocks had made a nice upward push in the opening minutes of trade, but the sector has since pulled back so that it is now up just 0.3% for the day. Meanwhile, financials have made a nice push out of negative territory so that it trades with a similar gain.

After a brief pause, the dollar has started to extend its downturn. It is now down a little more than 0.3%, which takes it to a fresh morning low. DJ30 -36.65 NASDAQ -11.52 SP500 -1.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 640/175 mln/1607 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 880/75 mln/1764

09:45 am : The major equity averages have pulled up from their opening levels, but they are still in the red with modest losses this morning. Their initial upturn comes as the dollar declines to a fresh morning low -- it is now down 0.3% against a basket of major foreign currencies.

Materials stocks have benefited the most from the greenback's downturn. The sector is up 0.6%, which makes it this morning's top performing sector and puts it comfortably out in front of the overall market. DJ30 -37.09 NASDAQ -9.39 SP500 -2.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 491/55 mln/1633 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 481/30 mln/1604

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.30. Stock futures are off of morning lows, but they still point to a slightly lower start to the first session of the new week. Premarket trade has been imbued by weakness among the major overseas markets. Plus, corporate announcements haven't really contained of any positive catalysts to aid broad market buying interest. Meanwhile, commodities are mixed in early pit trade. The dollar recently dipped to a loss of 0.2%, which makes for a morning low. As for economic data, some disappointment was had over the latest Empire Manufacturing Survey for May. Data from abroad featured a 0.6% increase in eurozone CPI for April after a 1.4% increase in the prior month. The eurozone's trade balance for March increased by 2.8 billion euros after a drop of 1.5 billion euros in the prior month. Japan reported that its consumer confidence reading for April fell to 33.1 from 38.6 in the prior month. Machine orders for March increased 2.9% after a 1.9% drop in the prior month.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.80. Commodities continue to trade in mixed fashion. Specifically, oil prices are down 1.2% to $98.45 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Natural gas prices are up 1.0% to $4.35 per MMBtu. As for precious metals, gold prices are flat at $1494 per ounce. Silver prices have fallen 1.4% to $34.55 per ounce. Overall, action among commodities has the CRB Commodity Index down 0.3%. In the backdrop, the dollar is essentially unchanged against a collection of competing currencies.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.80. Stock futures slipped some after the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for May. It came in at 11.9, which is well below the 18.0 that had been expected, on average, among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. The May reading is also down from the 21.7 that was posted for the prior month.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.30. Stock futures suggest a slightly lower start to the new week. Sentiment has softened in the wake of overnight weakness in Asia, and amid losses in Europe after news that International Monetary Fund Managing Director Strauss-Kahn was arrested ahead of a meeting of eurozone ministers. There have only been a handful of earnings announcements this morning. Among them, JC Penney (JCP) posted an upside surprise and strong forecast. In contrast, Lowe's Companies (LOW) came short of the consensus earnings estimate and issued downside guidance. Outside of stocks, the dollar is presently flat against a basket of major foreign currencies. Commodities are mostly mixed, but the CRB Commodity Index is down about 0.2%.

06:54 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.80.

06:54 am : Nikkei...9558.30...-90.50...-0.90%. Hang Seng...22960.63...-315.60...-1.40%.

06:54 am : FTSE...5874.07...-51.80...-0.90%. DAX...7302.50...+100.80...-1.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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