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 Post subject: May 13th Friday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +8.20
PostPosted: Sat May 14, 2011 7:21 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +8.20 points or $820.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=845.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

-----------------------------

Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image Bloomberg (YouTube Video) - U.S. Stocks Fall as Technology, Banking Shares Decline

May 13 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks fell, erasing a weekly gain, as CA Inc. led technology shares lower after earnings missed estimates and banks slid amid concern about Europe's debt crisis and closer government scrutiny.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks End Choppy Week Little Changed
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Hibah Yousuf
May 13, 2011: 5:03 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks fell Friday as the dollar gained ground and commodity prices pulled back, but managed to end the roller coaster week little changed.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) tumbled 100 points, or 0.8%, led lower by Travelers Co. (TRV, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500).

* Gas spending and prices by state

Prices at the pump can vary widely among states due to a number of factors. More

The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 11 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost 35 points, or 1.2%. Tech stocks Nvidia (NVDA), CA Inc. (CA), and Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) were among the worst performers on both indexes.

Stocks kicked off Friday's session flat as investors took a step back at the end of a choppy week of trading. But the market fell under pressure in the afternoon as the dollar gained ground. The greenback rose 1% against the euro and 0.7% versus the British pound.

"Investors have been focused on short-term changes in the direction of the dollar," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RBC Wealth Management, adding that a stronger buck can make it difficult for U.S. corporations to compete overseas, and in turn, cut into profits.

The stronger dollar also weighed on commodity prices, which had been stable earlier in the day. Oil for June fell almost 1% before settling up 0.7% to $99.65 a barrel, while gold futures slipped 0.9% to settle at $1,494.20 an ounce. Silver futures rose 0.6% to $35.01 an ounce.

Stocks have been moving in tandem with commodity prices recently, falling hard earlier this week along with plunging oil prices but also following commodities back up on Thursday.

Friday's move downward pushed stocks close to the levels where they finished last week. The Dow ended the week down 0.3%, the S&P 500 ticked 0.2% lower, and the Nasdaq finished unchanged.

"Investors are trying to figure out if the recent decline in commodities is a signal toward weak U.S. economic growth, or simply the rotation of money out of a hot, crowded area of the market," Sheldon said.

Economy: A report from the government released Friday showed that consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 3.2% in April, with the bulk of increases coming from higher gas prices.

The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment survey for May rose to 72.4, from 69.8 in April. Economists were expecting the figure to come in lower at 69.5.

Companies: Shares of Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) were down 3.6% after the company offered up more information about how it restructured Alipay. Yahoo was also the worst performer on the S&P 500 Wednesday as investors grew cautious after a regulatory filing raised questions about the value of Yahoo's China-based assets.
0:00 / 1:28 Yahoo searches for answers

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 3.18%.

World markets: European stocks ended lower. Britain's FTSE 100 slipped 0.3%, the DAX in Germany ticked down 0.6% and France's CAC 40 lost 0.1%.

Asian markets ended the session mixed. The Shanghai Composite rose 1% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong added 0.9%, while Japan's Nikkei fell 0.7%.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : A bounce by the dollar put pressure on stocks this session, but the market's loss for the week was negligible.

The tone of trade early this morning was generally positive, although markets abroad weren't exactly wild with excitement in the wake of some solid economic data out of Europe and Asia. Specifically, Germany's first quarter GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted 1.5%. Meanwhile, France reported first quarter GDP growth of 1.0%. The overall eurozone grew in the first quarter at a seasonally adjusted 0.8%. Hong Kong said its economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the first quarter. Hong Kong's government went on to raise its 2011 GDP forecast to a range of 5% to 6% from the previous range of 4% to 5%.

Domestic data featured the April Consumer Price Index, which increased by 0.4%. Core CPI climbed 0.2%. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for a 0.4% increase in overall prices and a 0.1% increase in core prices.

The initial reaction to the CPI data was rather muted, but slowly thereafter the dollar began to work its way out of the red. It paused at the flat line, but began to rally by mid-morning. Its climb took the Dollar Index to a one-month high before it eased back to finish the trading day with a 0.8% gain.

Strength in the dollar overshadowed the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey for May from the University of Michigan, even though it improved to 72.4 from 69.8. It had been widely expected that the Survey would come in at 69.5. Stocks had spent the past several weeks trading without much regard for moves in the dollar. The inverse relationship between the buck and stocks has come back into play in recent sessions, though.

In turn, the dollar's upturn stirred broad-based selling interest among stocks. As such, all 10 major sectors logged losses today.

Financials fell the furthest. The sector's 1.5% loss was worse than that of any other sector. Banks were some of the weakest performers in the sector. As such, the KBW Bank Index fell 1.8%.

NVIDIA (NVDA 18.26, -2.24) was one of the worst individual plays of the day. The sector's precipitous drop followed news of an upside earnings surprise and forecast. Yahoo! (YHOO 16.55, -0.62) also succumbed to stiff selling following its response to reports regarding the restructuring of Alipay.

Consumer staples stocks fell only fractionally this session. That extended the sector's run of outperforming the rest of the market and preserved its 2% weekly gain.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-1.5%), Materials (-1.4%), Tech (-1.2%), Industrials (-1.1%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.7%), Telecom (-0.6%), Utilities (-0.4%), Energy (-0.4%), Health Care (-0.2%), Consumer Staples (-0.1%)DJ30 -100.17 NASDAQ -34.57 NQ100 -1.2% R2K -1.4% SP400 -1.1% SP500 -10.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 619/1.92 bln/1988 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 856/897 mln/2148

3:30 pm : Oil prices climbed back from losses in early afternoon trade to finish pit trade at $99.65 per barrel for a 0.7% gain. Oil prices advanced 2.2% this week.

Natural gas prices closed the week at $4.24 per MMBtu. That made for a 1.2% gain this session, but the energy component ended the week down 1.4% from where it began.

Gold prices were flat this morning, but ultimately fell 0.9% to close at $1493.10 per ounce. That is barely changed from the prior week.

As for silver, its volatility continued before it settled the session at $34.91 for a 0.3% gain. During the course of the week silver prices shed 1.7%.

More broadly, the CRB Commodity Index started the session in higher ground before falling in response to a bounce by the dollar. It worked its way higher in afternoon action to finish flat. It advanced just 0.3% this week. DJ30 -11.45 NASDAQ -33.17 SP500 -11.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 652/1.54 bln/1953 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 854/608 mln/2123

3:00 pm : Stocks are down markedly as they head into the final hour of the week. The S&P 500 is less than two points below where it ended last week, though.

Action among equities hasn't changed much over the past three hours. Losses remain broad with the financial sector (-1.4%) down the most and the consumer staples sector (-0.2%) down the least.

As for the Dollar Index, it is also holding steady to a 0.8% gain. Meanwhile, the commodities complex remains mixed as the CRB Commodity Index stays put at the flat line. DJ30 -102.29 NASDAQ -29.91 SP500 -10.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 651/1.43 bln/1924 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 855/565 mln/2117

2:30 pm : Stocks have moved out of their recent trading range to set an afternoon high. Losses remain substantial, however.

The stock market's recent upturn coincides with a bounce by commodities. Support for the commodity complex has taken the CRB Commodity Index up to the flat line after it had been down about 0.5% an hour ago. Among the more closely tracked commodities, oil prices are up 0.4% to $99.35 per barrel. O

il's bounce has combined with an upturn by the broader equity market to help the energy sector move closer to the unchanged mark after it had been down more than 1% at its session low. DJ30 -87.76 NASDAQ -26.98 SP500 -8.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 614/1.33 bln/1958 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 786/522 mln/2182

2:00 pm : Lower oil prices and a weak stock market have taken shares of oil services plays lower today. In turn, the Oil Service HOLDRs ETF (OIH 147.28, -0.68) is in the red. However, offshore drilling services contractor Transocean (RIG 68.60, +1.12) is up with an impressive gain. The company announced today its approval of a dividend of about $1 billion and the election of J. Michael Talbert as Chairman of the Board.DJ30 -120.49 NASDAQ -33.04 SP500 -12.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 581/1.26 bln/1982 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 749/490 mln/2209

1:30 pm : The dollar has eased off of its session high, but it is still up 0.7% for the day. Stocks remain stuck near their session lows.

This session's slide has heated up the Volatility Index, which has spiked 7% higher today. It's still shy of its 10-day high, however, and remains just about flat for the year. DJ30 -116.67 NASDAQ -32.05 SP500 -11.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 586/1.17 bln/1966 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 758/455 mln/2188

1:00 pm : Renewed buying interest in the greenback has put pressure on stocks and commodities. The S&P 500 is now flat for the week. The CRB Commodity Index is down about 0.2% for the week.

The tone to premarket trade had been mildly upbeat. Participants had responded positively to news of strong GDP growth out of core eurozone countries Germany and France. Hong Kong also reported impressive first quarter growth, but went a step further by increasing its 2011 forecast.

There weren't any surprises to this morning's consumer inflation report either. CPI for April increased by 0.4%, as had been widely expected. Core CPI increased by 0.1%, which is slightly more than anticipated. Premarket participants didn't show much of an immediate reaction to the CPI report, but the mood among traders slowly softened as the dollar gradually attracted buying interest.

The dollar recovered from an early morning slide to sit near the neutral line around the time of the stock market's open. After a pause there, the greenback staged a steady rally that took the Dollar Index to a new one-month high. It is now just shy of that mark, but it still sports a 0.8% gain.

Stocks have sold off in response. Every major sector is in the red, but financials have been hit the hardest. The sector is down 1.4%, which puts it on pace for a weekly loss of about 2%. However, consumer staples stocks continue to display relative strength; the sector's 0.2% decline today has hardly taken away from its 2% weekly gain.

As for commodities, the CRB Commodity Index is down 0.6% after it had been up with a gain of about 0.8% ahead of the stock market's open. DJ30 -123.33 NASDAQ -30.92 SP500 -12.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 607/1.06 bln/1933 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 758/410 mln/2169

12:30 pm : The major equity averages are now all down about 1%. Their weakness comes amid a rally by the greenback, which is now sporting a 0.8% gain. That puts the buck at its best level in more than a month.DJ30 -124.50 NASDAQ -31.06 SP500 -12.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 570/915 mln/1947 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 703/360 mln/2222

12:00 pm : Stocks have fallen another leg lower in recent trade. All 10 major sectors are now in the red.

Consumer staples stocks have limited their loss to just 0.1%, collectively. This is the third straight session that the sector has outperformed. Consumer staples stocks are collectively on pace for a weekly gain of 2%.

Financials remain in the worst shape. The sector's 1.2% drop today has left the sector facing a potential weekly loss of 1.8%. DJ30 -85.79 NASDAQ -23.67 SP500 -8.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 680/805 mln/1800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 825/305 mln/2050

11:30 am : Pressure has picked up in recent trade to knock stocks to fresh session lows. The downturn comes amid an upturn by the dollar, which has quickly climbed to a 0.5% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies after it had been flat against that basket for most of the morning. Stocks are now near the levels where trade closed last week.

Treasuries have attracted increased buying interest on the back of the broad market's decline. The benchmark 10-year Note is now up about a half of a point. That makes for a session high. DJ30 -68.23 NASDAQ -22.11 SP500 -6.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 783/675 mln/1623 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1009/250 mln/1837

11:00 am : A failed attempt to move higher has left stocks mired in negative territory with narrow losses.

Financials have been a drag on broad market action for two straight sessions. The sector was one of the few to log a loss yesterday, and today it is down another 0.9%. Regional banks are among the worst performers in the space. Specifically, lenders BB&T (BBT 26.64, -0.56), SunTrust (STI 27.67, -0.43), and Key Corp (KEY 8.40, -0.13) are all down markedly. DJ30 -32.77 NASDAQ -11.69 SP500 -3.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 967/528 mln/1378 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1241/198 mln/1544

10:45 am : Commodities are higher overall, as measured by the CRB Commodity Index, even though the Dollar Index is showing a gain of 0.1%. Some commodities are in the red, though.

Crude oil posted gains in overnight trading activity and also broke through the $100 level. It moved back to the unchanged line around the time equity markets opened and is now at $99.72 per barrel for a 0.8% gain.

Natural gas chopped around the flat line overnight. In morning trade, the energy component briefly rallied for a modest gain, but reversed to a new session low of $4.21 per MMBtu. It is now down 0.7% at $4.23 per MMBtu.

Precious metals have gained modestly since yesterday, although silver remains volatile. Silver prices have traded in a two-dollar range between about $34.30 and $36.40, but at the moment the precious metal is up 2.5% at $35.67 per ounce. Gold is currently up 0.1% at $1508.70 per ounce.DJ30 -185.82 NASDAQ -5.67 SP500 -1.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 783/378.7 mln/1524 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1105/148.7/1625

10:00 am : The preliminary reading of consumer sentiment for May from the University of Michigan had a survey score of 72.4, which is better than the 69.5 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The May score is also better than the 69.8 that was posted for the prior month.

Stocks haven't had much of a reaction to the announcement. Instead, they continue to chop along in negative territory with modest losses as the dollar oscillates near the neutral line. DJ30 -23.54 NASDAQ -7.44 SP500 -1.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 839/158 mln/1321 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1154/70 mln/1451

09:45 am : The dollar's move back to the flat line has put some pressure on stocks. In turn, the major equity averages are down with narrow losses.

Commodities have also come under pressure in recent trade. That has caused the CRB Commodity Index to pare its gain; it is now up 0.2% this session.

Treasuries have attracted support, though. The benchmark 10-year Note is up about a quarter of a point, which has been enough to take its yield back to 3.20%.

Coming up in just a few minutes is the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey for Michigan from the University of Michigan (9:55 AM ET). DJ30 -24.41 NASDAQ -10.59 SP500 -2.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1060/50 mln/981 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1476/32 mln/964

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.30. The mood among morning participants has moderated in recent minutes so that a flat start to the final session of the week looks to be in order. As things currently stand, the stock market is on pace for a weekly gain of about 0.6%. Meanwhile, the CRB Commodity Index is on pace for a weekly gain of 0.9%. Both have been taking cues from the greenback in recent sessions, after they had spent several weeks moving without much regard for it. The dollar is up 0.4% against a collection of competing currencies this week, but this morning it is down 0.1% against that basket. Its action this morning has been somewhat choppy, especially in the wake of the latest CPI reading, which was released about an hour ago. Overall CPI in April increased by 0.4%, as had been expected. Core CPI made a 0.2% increase. Still on the calendar is the preliminary consumer sentiment survey for May from the University of Michigan. It is due at 9:55 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.30. Stock futures have slipped in recent trade. Commodity prices are also off of their morning highs. Gold prices are currently flat at $1506.90 per ounce after the yellow metal had been near $1516 per ounce overnight. Silver prices are up a solid 1.6% to $35.31 per ounce, but they had been well above $36 per ounce in overnight trade. Oil prices are up just 0.4% to $99.40 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. The energy component had been up to about $100.50 per barerl earlier this morning. Natural gas prices are currently down 0.5% to $4.22 per MMBtu. In the backdrop, the Dollar Index is down 0.1%, which puts it just shy of its morning high.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.50. Stock futures made a modest uptick in the wake of the latest inflation data, which was released just minutes ago. The Consumer Price Index for April increased by 0.4%, which is exactly in line with what had been expected among economists polled by Briefing.com. When oil and food are excluded, consumer prices climbed 0.2% in April. A 0.1% increase in core prices had been widely anticipated. Year over year, overall consumer prices for April increased by 3.2%, while core consumer prices increased by 1.3%.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.50. Stock futures are up narrowly this morning. The moderately positive tone comes amid a slight dip in the Dollar Index and an upturn in commodity prices. Premarket trade has been somewhat tempered by relatively mixed action abroad following news that Germany's first quarter GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted 1.5%. France reported first quarter GDP growth of 1.0%. The overall eurozone grew in the first quarter at a seasonally adjusted 0.8%. Hong Kong said its economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the first quarter. Hong Kong's government went on to raise its 2011 GDP forecast to a range of 5% to 6% from the previous range of 4% to 5%. As for domestic data, the latest CPI reading is due at the bottom of the hour. The consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan will be released later this morning (9:55 AM ET). Overall corporate news flow remains light, but shares of Yahoo! (YHOO) are attracting attention following the company's response to recent media reports regarding the restructuring of Alipay. Shares of YHOO are down 5% ahead of the open. Meanwhile, shares of NVDIA (NVDA) are down 7% in premarket trade as the stock sells off in the wake of an upside earnings surprise and strong forecast. The stock had rallied in the prior session. Shares of Nordstrom (JWN) are down more than 1% ahead of the open following an earnings miss and the company's decision to authorize a $750 million share repurchase program.

06:33 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.30.

06:33 am : Nikkei...9648.77...-67.90...-0.70%. Hang Seng...23276.27...+202.50...+0.90%.

06:33 am : FTSE...5989.91...+45.00...+0.80%. DAX...7467.83...+22.90...+0.30%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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