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 Post subject: May 11th Wednesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +14.00
PostPosted: Wed May 11, 2011 5:30 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +14.00 points or $1400.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=841.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image Bloomberg (YouTube Video) - U.S. Stocks Decline, Commodities Tumble, Dollar Stronger

May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks slumped, giving the Standard & Poor's 500 Index its biggest decline since March, as commodities tumbled amid a strengthening dollar and concern that accelerating global inflation may curb economic growth.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Stumble As Oil Prices Plunge
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer
May 11, 2011: 4:51 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks fell sharply Wednesday, as energy and materials stocks were particularly hard hit by a sell-off in oil and gasoline futures.

"Commodities are getting crushed here, and it's taking the whole market with it," said David Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) slid 130 points, or 1%, to end at 12,630. The blue-chip index had been down as much as 179 points. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 15 points, or 1.1%, to 1,342; and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) shed 27 points, or 0.9%, to end at 2,845.

Shares of Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) were among the biggest laggards on the Dow as oil plunged nearly 6% to $100 a barrel. Gasoline futures also got hammered, tumbling 8% to $3.11 a gallon.

The selling intensified after the Energy Department's weekly inventory report showed a surprise build in gasoline supplies.

The drop in energy prices also drove down shares of energy firms Halliburton (HAL, Fortune 500), Cabot Oil (COG) and Tesoro (TSO, Fortune 500), among others.

Precious metals were also selling off, with silver sinking $3.26, or 8.5%, to $32.22 an ounce. And gold fell $13.40, or 0.9%, to $1,503.50 an ounce.

Copper was also getting caught up in the selling mayhem, with prices sinking 3.5%. That spilled over to miner stocks, including Freeport McMoRan (FCX, Fortune 500) and Teck Resources (TCK).

Traders also pointed to weakness in the euro as part of the reason commodities were under pressure. The dollar gained strength amid growing concerns about Greece's debt problems.

"We're now looking at a strong likelihood that Greece will need to default in some form," said Brian Dolan, Forex.com's chief currency strategist.

* The euro: And the saga continues - StockTwits

One of the lone bright spots was Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), whose shares rose 1.7% after the chipmaker hiked its quarterly dividend to 21 cents a share.

Investors moved into defensive sectors such as consumer staples, utilities and health care stocks. Both utilities and health care have been particularly strong performers as of late, a sign that investors are becoming increasingly hesitant.

"It's time to be a little bit cautious," said Russell Lundeberg, chief investment officer with Barrett Capital Management. "These volatile swings show that fundamentals are not moving this market any more, so you have to be sure you're being paid for any amount of risk you're willing to take on at this point."

Wednesday's drop came after U.S. stocks rose Tuesday, thanks to investors encouraged by Microsoft's $8.5 billion deal to buy Skype, along with solid corporate earnings reports and economic data.

Companies: Shares of Dow component Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) fell more than 5% after the company reported earnings that fell far short of forecasts.

Yahoo! (YHOO, Fortune 500) shares slid more than 7%, making it the worst performer in the S&P 500, on investor concerns about the value of its China-based assets.

Automaker Toyota (TM) said Wednesday that net income almost doubled and sales increased 0.2% for the fiscal year ended March 31. But the earthquake that hit Japan earlier this year cost the company about ¥100 billion. Toyota shares rose 0.5%.

* Video - AIG's troubles continue

Also, insurer AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) and the Treasury decided to move ahead with a $9 billion stock offering, despite the recent low price of the stock. Shares of AIG rose 3.6%.

* 10 triple-digit stock winners

Department store chain Macy's (M, Fortune 500) posted a profit of 30 cents a share, well above the 17 cents analysts were looking for. The company also announced it was doubling its quarterly dividend to 10 cents per share. Macy's shares jumped 8%, making it the best performer on the S&P 500.

Dow component Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500) reported earnings of 42 cents a share, beating analysts' estimates of 37 cents. CSCO rose 4% in aftermarket action.

Economy: The U.S. trade deficit widened to $48.2 billion in March, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Economists were expecting a $47.7 billion trade deficit.

In Asia, China's food price surge slowed, helping to ease overall inflation in April. China's consumer price index rose at an annual rate of 5.3%, down from 5.4% growth in March.

Currencies and bonds: The dollar rose more than 1% against the euro but remained weak against the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Meanwhile, the price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose modestly, with the yield falling to 3.16%.

World markets: European stocks closed mixed. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.7%, the DAX in Germany lost 0.1% and France's CAC 40 added 0.1%.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite lost 0.3%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong shaved 0.2% and Japan's Nikkei rose 0.5%.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks saw a string of strong performances come to an end as participants applied pressure amid a strong jump by the dollar. Commodities also succumbed to concerted selling interest.

Over the course of the past three sessions the stock market displayed impressive resilience as it generated enough momentum to climb more than 1%. However, concerns about higher interest rates and the fiscal state of Greece tested the conviction of recent market participants. Suspicion that higher interest rates may be forthcoming were underpinned by news that China saw a 5.3% increase in consumer prices and that the Bank of England expects consumer prices to climb above its targeted 2.0% rate and remain there through 2012.

The dollar still won support, though. Its strength came amid concern about what may be needed to prevent a default by Greece. The greenback was able to build on its gain against the euro so that the Dollar Index ended the trading day with a 1.0% gain.

Neither stocks nor commodities could attract meaningful support. In turn, the major equity averages all fell close to 1% while the CRB Commodity Index dropped to a 3.0% loss.

The combination of broad market weakness and lower commodity prices led the energy sector to suffer a 2.9% loss while the materials sector fell 2.7%.

Consumer staples stocks did a good job fending off sellers, though. The sector settled just 0.1% lower. At the individual level, Teva Pharma (TEVA 48.65, +1.51) and Macy's (M 28.36, +2.03) outperformed. Both company's posted upside earnings surprises for the latest quarter, but Macy's complemented its report with an improved forecast word that it has doubled its dividend to $0.10 per share.

Treasuries were able to attract buying interest today. They were helped by results from an results from a 10-year Note auction, which drew a bid-to-cover of 3.00, dollar demand of $72.0 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 42.7%. The benchmark 10-year Note gained about a half point.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Energy (-2.9%), Materials (-2.7%), Financials (-1.3%), Industrials (-1.1%), Telecom (-0.9%), Tech (-0.9%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.8%), Health Care (-0.3%), Utilities (-0.2%), Consumer Staples (-0.1%)DJ30 -130.33 NASDAQ -26.83 NQ100 -0.8% R2K -1.8% SP400 -1.1% SP500 -15.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 614/2.27 bln/2021 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 476/977 mln/2599

3:30 pm : Today brought a large sell off in the commodities complex, aided by the strength in the dollar. June gold shed 1.1% to close at $1500.80 per ounce, while July silver fell 8.1% to close at $35.41 per ounce. Both metals ended three session winning streaks, and ended up giving back a majority of their gains from that streak.

June crude oil fell 5.5% to close at $98.21 per barrel. There were a couple of contributing factors to the ~5.6% pullback today, including: a stronger dollar, bearish inventory data, and a continued pullback in gasoline futures. Gasoline futures, which were halted intraday for five minutes, were pummeled following this morning's data from the EIA, which showed that finished motor gasoline (implied demand) fell for the third time in four weeks. June natural gas shed 1.5% to end at $4.18 per MMBtu. DJ30 -145.24 NASDAQ -27.79 SP500 -15.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 586/1.8 bln/2055 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 440/651.5 mln/2616

3:00 pm : Stocks have spent the past couple of hours stuck at their session low with steep losses. This session's drop is shaping up to be the worst single-day dive since mid-March.

Consumer staples stocks have performed well today. The sector may be down 0.3%, but that is less than a quarter of what the broader market has surrendered this session. Clorox (CLX 69.69, +0.17), Walgreen (WAG 44.03, +0.53), and Avon Products (AVP 29.63, +0.32) have been primary sources of support. DJ30 -159.16 NASDAQ -33.05 SP500 -17.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 600/1.70 bln/2016 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 436/605 mln/2604

2:30 pm : Stocks are still stuck at session lows. Little reaction has been made to news that the Treasury deficit for April came in at $40.5 billion, which is about half of the $82.7 billion deficit posted for the prior month. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, that the deficit for April would come in at $41.0 billion.DJ30 -164.99 NASDAQ -35.35 SP500 -18.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 554/1.57 bln/2057 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 422/550 mln/2618

2:00 pm : Stocks are still near session lows. There isn't a single sector sporting a gain today. Losses range from teh consumer staple sector's 0.3% decline to the energy sector's 3.0% drop.

Meanwhile, the dollar remains near its session high. It remains today's top performing asset. DJ30 -151.40 NASDAQ -34.97 SP500 -17.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 570/1.47 bln/2037 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 414/508 mln/2613

1:30 pm : Treasuries have rallied in the past hour. The initial move higher came amid a downturn in the stock market, but the latest leg of gains comes in the wake of the latest auction of 10-year Notes.

The auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.00, dollar demand of $72.0 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 42.7%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.13, dollar demand of $65.7 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 42.4%. An average of the past six auctions gives a bid-to-cover of 3.12, dollar demand of $68.5 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 53.6%. DJ30 -159.69 NASDAQ -35.95 SP500 -18.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 580/1.33 bln/1997 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 405/461 mln/2604

1:00 pm : Selling interest this session has offset the gains the stocks had made during the course of the past two sessions. The move lower coincides with a big bounce by the greenback, which has put added pressure on commodities.

Buyers boosted the stock market more than 1% during the course of the past three sessions, but they showed pause this morning. Relatively mixed action among the major averages abroad didn't exactly compel participants to chase the market's recent string of gains.

Trade overseas varied amid news that China's latest dose of data featured a hot 5.3% increase in consumer prices. The Bank of England reported that consumer prices are likely to climb above the targeted rate and remain there through 2012.

The two reports have increased speculation about potential rate hikes. That initially contained the Dollar Index, which started the session with only a modest gain as the euro moved lower amid ongoing uncertainty about Greece's fiscal health. The dollar has since rallied so that it leads a basket of major foreign currencies by 1.0%.

Strength in the greenback and and concerns about tighter monetary policy have put added pressure on commodities, which are collectively down 2.7%, as measured by the CRB Commodity Index. The commodity complex has also been hurt by a negative response to data featured in the latest supply-demand report from the Department of Agriculture.

The dollar's bounce and the drop in commodities has undercut the overall equity market, but natural resource stocks have been hit doubly hard. In turn, The energy sector is down 3.1% and the materials sector is down 2.6%.

Even though all three major equity averages are now down with losses of 1% or more, strong quarterly reports have helped a couple of stocks put together enviable gains. Teva Pharma (TEVA 48.46, +1.32) posted an upside surprise this morning. Meanwhile, Macy's (M 28.24, +1.90) not only posted better-than-expected earnings, it also raised its forecast and doubled its quarterly dividend to $0.10 per share. DJ30 -148.91 NASDAQ -30.02 SP500 -16.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 558/1.21 bln/2012 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 392/415 mln/2608

12:30 pm : Stocks have steadied their descent, but the dollar has extended its climb so that it now leads a basket of major foreign currencies by 1.0%. The greenback's gain has put added pressure on commodities, which are collectively down 2.7%, according to the CRB Commodity Index.

Treasuries have come alive in recent trade. Buying in the space has boosted the benchmark 10-year Note to a solid gain ahead of its auction results at the top of the hour. DJ30 -160.41 NASDAQ -32.40 SP500 -17.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 598/1.05 bln/1935 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 406/350 mln/2588

12:00 pm : Stocks have been undercut by a sudden flurry of selling interest. All three major equity averages now trade at new session lows with marked losses.

The market's downturn coincides with an upturn by the dollar, which now sports a 1.0% lead over the euro. At the same time, it has cut its loss against the British pound to less than 0.3%, even though speculation has increased over the matter of a potential rate hike by the Bank of England following some rather hot inflation data. DJ30 -99.60 NASDAQ -17.31 SP500 -10.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 791/875 mln/1711 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 502/295 mln/2479

11:30 am : Even though stocks have been stuck in the red all morning, Treasuries really haven't attracted any meaningful buying interest. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is mired at the neutral line. That has kept its yield just above 3.20%. The lack of action among Treasuries comes ahead of auction results for the benchmark 10-year Note that will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. The Treasury's monthly budget will be posted at 2:00 PM ET.DJ30 -63.57 NASDAQ -6.07 SP500 -5.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 745/700 mln/1716 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 494/256 mln/2451

11:00 am : Stocks coninue to chop along with modest losses. Strength remains limited.

Of the major sectors in the S&P 500, only consumer staples (+0.3%) and health care (+0.2%) are in higher ground. Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS 40.63, +0.98) is a leader among consumer staples stocks; shares of DPS are actually at their best level of their relatively short life. Among health care issues, Teva Pharma (TEVA 48.67, +1.53) is a top performer, thanks to a stronger-than-expected earnings report. DJ30 -75.08 NASDAQ -6.63 SP500 -6.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 703/565 mln/1712 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 467/210 mln/2447

10:35 am : Crude oil futures have been in the red for the majority of today's session. Crude was modestly higher overnight, but half way through the overnight session, crude fell into the red and has been there since. The energy component fell to new session lows of $101.50 at 10:00am EST, and remained near that level ahead of today's weekly inventory data. Following the data, which showed a build of 3780K versus consensus of a build of 1500K, crude fell to new session lows and is now down 2.8% at $100.95/barrel.

Natural gas gained steam earlier this morning, but erased gains after pit trading began. In current activity, natural gas is 1.1% lower at $4.26/MMBtu.

Silver futures were modestly higher overnight, but began to sell-off around 7am EST. Since then, silver has shed about $2/ounce and is currently trading 3.4% lower at $37.16/ounce. Gold is trading in the same pattern as silver today. Gold hit its own new session low of $1504.60/ounce and is now down 0.6% at $1508/ounce.

The USDA released its May supply/demand report, which is viewed as bearish for corn futures on higher than expected corn carryover to 2011/12 and high corn yields, which ultimately led to ending stocks projections of 900 mln bushels. Corn, wheat and soybeans open sharply lower as pit trading just began. Currently, corn is -3.7% at $6.81/bu, wheat is -2.3% at $7.80/bu and soybeans are -01.8% at $13.27/bu.DJ30 -65.77 NASDAQ -2.54 SP500 -5.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 745/380.9 mln/1589 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 472/152.8 mln/2373

10:00 am : Stocks recently attempted to make an upward push, but the move has come under pressure. The broad market has since been backed down to a new morning low.

Energy stocks are still the heaviest drags on early trade. The sector's downturn has taken it to a loss of almost 2%. Halliburton (HAL 47.27, -1.12) and Baker Hughes (BHI 70.35, -1.90) are among the hardest hit in the sector.

Shares of Macy's (M 27.92, +1.59) have spiked to a new three-year high in the face of broader market weakness. The stock's ascent comes in the wake of an impressive quarterly report, which featured better-than-expected earnings and an improved forecast. The company complemented the report with the decision to double its quarterly dividend to $0.10 per share.DJ30 -68.23 NASDAQ -4.45 SP500 -6.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 870/220 mln/1399 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 510/80 mln/2295

09:45 am : The major equity averages are down with modest losses this morning. Their slip follows three straight advances, which gave the S&P 500 a cumulative gain of more than 1%.

Energy stocks have been a heavy drag on early action. The sector is already down 1.4%. A recent drop in oil prices to session lows has only exacerbated the sector's weakness -- oil prices were last quoted with a 1.7% loss at $102.15 per barrel.

The dollar is rebounding after enduring losses in each of the past two sessions. It was last quoted with a 0.4% gain against a collection of competing currencies. Most of the dollar's advance is due to a weaker euro, which is down 0.7% to $1.431. DJ30 -56.96 NASDAQ -0.99 SP500 -4.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 640/50 mln/1442 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 441/40 mln/2138

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.00. Stock futures point to a relatively flat start for today's trade. The pause comes after stocks climbed during the course of the past three sessions for a gain of more than 3%. Mixed action among the major equity averages abroad hasn't provided any extra direction. In Asia, both the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite closed with 0.2% losses while Japan's Nikkei scored a 0.5% gain. China reported overnight another sharp increase in inflation. The latest action in Europe features 0.5% gains for both France's CAC and Germany's DAX, but Britian's FTSE is fractionally lower amid speculation that the Bank of England may soon raise rates to fend off inflation. That has helped the British pound climb 0.6% to $1.647. However, the euro is weaker amid ongoing uncertainty regarding Greece's fiscal health. The Dollar Index is currently up 0.3%

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.80. Oil prices are down 1.1% to $102.80 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Prices could experience some volatility with the release of weekly oil inventory figures at 10:30 AM ET. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are up about 0.2% to $4.31 per MMBtu. As for precious metals, gold prices are down 0.2% to $1514.50 per ounce. Silver has fallen a much sharper 1.4% to $37.95 per ounce after it had rallied during the two prior sessions. As an aside, the USDA released its supply-demand report for May this morning. The report featured bearish carryover and yield figures for corn. Pit trade for corn will open at 10:30 AM ET.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.60. The U.S. trade deficit for March increased to $48.2 billion from $45.4 billion in the prior month. Economists surveyed by Brieifng.com had expected, on average, a deficit of $47.7 billion. Stock futures remain flat in the wake of the announcement, but the greenback has added incrementally to its morning gain so that the Dollar Index is now up a bit more than 0.2%.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.20. Stock futures are flat amid a cooler tone of trade that follows a three-session climb, which produced a cumulative gain in excess of 1%. The dollar is up with modestly, though. Most of its strength this morning is owed to a weaker euro, which was last quoted with a 0.3% loss at $1.436. Meanwhile, commodities have come under pressure so that the CRB Commodity Index is down 0.5%. Corporate news flow remains sluggish, but Macy's (M) recently announced an upside earnings surprise, an increased earnings forecast, and its decision to double its dividend to $0.10 per share. Walt Disney (DIS) had a disappointing quarterly announcement that featured lower-than-expected earnings, however. Today's calendar is a bit more busy than in recent days. It features international trade data, which are due at the bottom of the hour. Weekly oil inventory figures will be posted at 10:30 AM ET. Results from an auction of 10-year Notes will be announced at 1:00 PM ET. The latest Treasury budget will be available at 2:00 PM ET.

06:24 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.20.

06:24 am : Nikkei...9864.26...+45.50...+0.50%. Hang Seng...23291.80...-44.20...-0.20%.

06:24 am : FTSE...6029.20...+10.30...+0.20%. DAX...7552.29...+50.80...+0.70%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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