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 Post subject: May 4th Wednesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +28.30
PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:26 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
050411-wrbtrader-PnL-Blotter-Profit-2830.png
050411-wrbtrader-PnL-Blotter-Profit-2830.png [ 28.64 KiB | Viewed 298 times ]

click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +28.30 points or $2830.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=830.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Stumble On Economic Jitters
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Annalyn Censky, staff reporter
May 4, 2011: 4:30 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks ended in the red Wednesday, as disappointing reports on jobs and the services sector weighed on investors.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 84 points, or 0.6%. Earlier in the session, the blue-chip index tumbled more than 130 points. The S&P 500 (SPX) shed 9 points, or 0.7%; and the Nasdaq (COMP) slid 13 points, or 0.5%.

Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) and General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) were the biggest drags on the Dow. Shares of First Solar (FSLR) pressured both the Nasdaq and S&P 500, falling 8.5%.

Before the opening bell, payroll processor ADP said the private sector created 179,000 jobs last month -- down from 207,000 in the previous month. That was less than the 200,000 economists had been expecting.

"We hit a disappointment with ADP," said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist for Channel Capital Research. "It wasn't earth shattering -- but at the same time, the average person doesn't see their job prospects improving much at all."

Later in the morning, the Institute for Supply Management also brought gloomy news, showing its reading on the services sector fell to an 8-month low in April.

Neither reports spur much confidence ahead of the government's widely anticipated report on April payrolls, due Friday.

"People might be slightly more nervous about the economic outlook," said Sireen Harajli, an associate economist at Credit Agricole in New York. "There's a shadow of uncertainty going forward."

* Video - I finally found a job

Stocks have been trending generally higher since the start of the year, but investors fear the economy is still on shaky ground.

They're waiting to see just how hard businesses were hurt by rising energy prices over the last few months, and keeping a close eye on the looming debt ceiling facing Congress.

Meanwhile, Europe's debt problems were thrust back in the spotlight early Wednesday, after Portugal agreed to a $116 billion financial bailout, according to reports.

On Tuesday, U.S. stocks struggled for a second session as disappointing corporate earnings, and a steep drop in the price of oil, weighed on the broader market.

Economy: In addition to ADP's report on job creation, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas issued a report showing employers announced fewer planned job cuts in April -- even as government sector layoffs mounted.

Wednesday's reports on the job market set the stage for Friday's widely anticipated government jobs report.

Economists surveyed by CNNMoney expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 8.8%, while employers added 185,000 jobs in April. For the full year, economists expect 2.3 million new jobs -- just under 200,000 per month -- and an unemployment rate of 8.4% by year end.

Companies: Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) helped offset losses in the three major stock indexes, after the company announced it would manufacture microprocessor chips using new 3-D technology. Intel shares rose about 2% following the news.

Chinese social networking site Renren (RENN) debuted on the New York Stock Exchange at $14 a share. Often dubbed the "Facebook of China," Renren shares rose more than 28% to $18.01 a piece.

Shares of Varian Semiconductor (VSEA) surged more than 50%, on news that Applied Materials (AMAT, Fortune 500) will buy the chipmaker in a $5 billion cash deal.

Before the opening bell, CNNMoney parent Time Warner said a surge in advertising sales boosted revenue. But net income dropped. Shares of Time Warner (TWX, Fortune 500) fell 3.2%.

Time Warner's results come on the heels of better-than-expected earnings from CBS Corp. (CBS, Fortune 500) announced the day before. CBS shares rose 7.8% Wednesday.

After the close, News Corp (NWS, Fortune 500). shares fell 0.7%, when the company reported earnings and revenue that fell short of Wall Street estimates.

Prudential Financial (PRU, Fortune 500), Whole Foods (WFMI, Fortune 500), MetLife (MET, Fortune 500), and video game publisher Electronic Arts (ERTS, Fortune 500) all beat analysts' forecasts on income.

World markets: European stocks closed lower. Britain's FTSE 100 and the DAX in Germany each lost 1.8% and France's CAC 40 fell 1.5%.

Asian markets ended lower. The Shanghai Composite dropped 2.3%, and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong shed 1.4%. Japan's market was closed for a holiday.

Currencies and Commodities: The dollar lost ground against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

After losing more than 2% in the previous session, oil for June delivery fell an additional $1.81 or 1.6% to settle at $109.24 a barrel Wednesday.

* Check the price of gas in your state

Other commodities also continued to sell-off.

Gold futures for June delivery fell $25.10 to settle at $1,515.30 an ounce.

Silver futures for July delivery dropped $3.29 to $39.30, after sinking more than 7% in the previous session.

Bonds: Bond prices moved higher, pushing the yield on the 10-year Treasury note down to 3.22%.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Aggressive selling threatened to take the major equity averages sharply lower, but for the second straight session losses were pared as pressure eased in afternoon action.

Little hullabaloo was made over news that Portugal has been offered a bailout worth about 78 billion euros, and no real reaction was made to a disappointing ADP Employment Change report for April. The Change report suggested that last month's private payrolls increased by 179,000, which is less than the 200,000 private payrolls that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Stocks began to sell-off in the minutes that followed the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for April. It fell to 52.8 from 57.3, but was widely expected to remain near 57.4.

Energy stocks and materials stocks were the hardest hit. Both sectors were down in excess of 2% before paring losses in afternoon trade to finish the day down 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively. Their weakness was exacerbated by renewed pressure against commodities. Commodities collectively tumbled 1.8%, as measured by the CRB Commodity Index, even though the Dollar Index probed its two-year low before finishing flat.

At session lows the three major equity averages were down more than 1% in relatively heavy volume, but for no apparent reason pressure began to ease shortly after midday. The afternoon ascent actually took the Nasdaq to within striking distance of the neutral line, but resistance there ultimately caused the major averages to retreat back into the red.

Corporate news continues to have little impact on overall trade, given the dwindling number of blue chips and bellwethers making quarterly reports. CBS (CBS 27.21, +1.97), Time Warner (TWX 36.49, -1.24), Comcast (CMCSA 25.96, -0.65), and Las Vegas Sands (LVS 42.53, -3.34) were among the more widely held names to recently issue reports. Only LVS came short of the consensus earnings estimate.

Consumer staples stocks ConAgra (CAG 25.51, +0.76) and Ralcorp (RAH 87.39, +4.06) were able to put together strong gains in the face of broad weakness. Their strength followed an offer by CAG to acquire RAH for $86 per share, or a premium of more than 20% above the levels that RAH had traded at prior rumors of the offer last week.

For the second straight session, share volume on the NYSE broke 1 billion. That hasn't happened in more than a month.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Materials (-1.7%), Energy (-1.6%), Industrials (-1.4%), Financials (-0.9%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.4%), Telecom (-0.3%), Tech (-0.3%), Utilities (-0.3%), Health Care (-0.1%), Consumer Staples (-0.1%)DJ30 -83.93 NASDAQ -13.39 NQ100 -0.2% R2K -1.3% SP400 -0.9% SP500 -9.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 698/2.24 bln/1872 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 940/1.10 bln/2059

3:30 pm : Precious metals closed sharply lower today, with June gold dropping 1.7% to settle at $1514.80 per ounce, while July silver fell 7.4% to close at $39.45 per ounce. Follow through selling helped the metals close lower for the third consecutive session. Gold has now fallen over 62 points, or ~4%, from its all time high set on May 2 at $1577.40. Silver has dropped over 10 points, or ~21%, from its recent ~31 yr highs at $49.845.

This morning's inventory data, which showed a larger than expected build, helped June crude oil close lower by 1.6% to $109.24. Crude oil prices have now sold off three sessions in a row as well. June natural gas closed lower by 1.9% to $4.58. DJ30 -72.09 NASDAQ -9.07 SP500 -9.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 786/1.9 bln/1768 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 931/793.9 mln/2030

3:00 pm : The Nasdaq Composite recently came within striking distance of the neutral line, but resistance there has caused it to slip. Its current loss remains only a fraction of what it had suffered earlier.

The end of the trading day is only an hour away. Briefing.com will cover earnings results from more than 100 companies after the close. Nearly 150 more are on the docket for tomorrow. A complete list can be viewed for free through the Briefing.com Investor page. DJ30 -79.09 NASDAQ -6.72 SP500 -8.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 856/1.73 bln/1698 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 978/730 mln/1993

2:30 pm : The stock market's afternoon ascent has halved the midday losses of the Dow and S&P 500. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite is closing in on the neutral line.

There really hasn't been any leader that has underpinned the broad market's improved performance of the past few hours. Rather, selling pressure appears to have abated. In fact, there still isn't a single sector in positive territory. DJ30 -65.39 NASDAQ -4.73 SP500 -6.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 859/1.60 bln/1665 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 970/670 mln/1977

2:00 pm : Stocks continue to battle back from a rather aggressive sell-off; each of the three major equity averages is now at its best level in more than three hours. Still, not a single sector has been able to put together any kind of sustainable gain -- only consumer staples have come close, but they are currently down 0.1%.DJ30 -86.09 NASDAQ -15.45 SP500 -10.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 744/1.47 bln/1770 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 836/615 mln/2099

1:30 pm : Stocks have managed to cut into their losses in recent trade. They still have an uphill battle ahead if they are to make any kind of strong finish to today's trade.

Pressure against commodities hasn't let up, though. Instead, the CRB Commodities Index is still down 1.8%. DJ30 -90.63 NASDAQ -21.07 SP500 -10.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 618/1.36 bln/1888 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 759/570 mln/2171

1:00 pm : Aggressive selling has taken the major equity averages down more than 1% and caused commodity prices to extend their recent string of losses.

News that Portugal has been offered a bailout worth 78 billion euros failed to fend off selling interest in Europe. It also failed to motivate domestic traders.

The latest round of earnings reports also lacked influence in early trade. The lot featured upside surprises from broadcasting and media plays CBS (CBS 26.61, +1.37), Time Warner (TWX 36.61, -1.12), and Comcast (CMCSA 26.06, -0.56), but Las Vegas Sands (LVS 42.60, -3.27) came short of the consensus earnings estimate.

Data came into closer focus today. The ADP Employment Change for April indicated that private payrolls increased by 179,000, which is down more than expected from the prior month.

There wasn't really a deterioration in the mood among traders until participants were dealt a disappointing ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, which fell more than expected to 52.8 for April.

Stocks have since descended to marked losses. The broad selling effort may immediately follow a couple of disappointing economic reports, but more broadly, it comes after stocks put together some relatively weak performances during the past two sessions. The negative turn has also come with an increase in participation, such that share volume on the NYSE has already surpassed a half billion shares. Just yesterday share volume on the Big Board hit 1 billion for the first time since portfolio managers had engaged in asset rebalancing at first quarter's end.

Consumer staples stocks make up the only sector that has managed to fend off sellers; as a group, consumer staples stocks are flat. Their relative strength comes after ConAgra (CAG 25.37, +0.61) offered $86 per share to acquire Ralcorp (RAH 88.46, +5.13). The offer represents a slim premium over RAH's prior session closing price, but it is actually more than 20% above the levels that RAH traded at last week, when rumors of an offer began to circulate.

Selling has been most aggressive against natural resource plays. That has both the energy sector and the materials sector down 2%. Their weakness has been exacerbated by renewed pressure against commodities.

Among the more widely followed commodities gold prices are down 2.0% to $1509 per ounce, while silver has slumped 7.7% to $39.35 per ounce, which is almost 20% below where it settled last week. Oil prices are down 1.9% to $109 per barrel; an unexpectedly large increase in weekly oil inventories hasn't helped the energy component.

Weakness among commodities comes in the face of the dollar's ongoing doldrums. This morning the dollar descended back to the two-year low that it had set earlier this week, but has pared its loss so that it now trails a collection of competing currencies by a narrow margin.DJ30 -106.95 NASDAQ -25.30 SP500 -12.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 589/1.26 bln/1901 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 733/510 mln/2201

12:30 pm : Unable to make any kind of meaningful upward move, stocks have fallen to a new session low. For the first time in about a month, share volume has been robust. Trading has been aggressively to the downside so that declining share volume outnumbers advancing volume by more than 3-to-1.DJ30 -124.54 NASDAQ -28.41 SP500 -14.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 536/1.13 bln/1963 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 668/470 mln/2246

12:00 pm : The dollar has managed to trim its loss so that it now trails a basket of major foreign currencies by 0.2%. Earlier today it had been down about 0.5%, which took it back to the two-year low that it had set at the start of this week.

Stocks have edged their way up from session lows, too, but overall losses remain rather steep. Natural resource plays continue to encounter the most selling pressure. As such, the materials sector is down 1.9% and the energy sector is down 2.0%. Their weakness comes amid continued pressure against commodities, which are collectively down 1.4%, according to the CRB Commodity Index. DJ30 -101.34 NASDAQ -22.74 SP500 -11.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 615/1.00 bln/1818 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 715/420 mln/2158

11:30 am : Stocks recently moved another leg lower. That has the Dow down more than 100 points.

Treasuries ticking higher in response to selling among equities. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is down to a one-month low of 3.21%. It still has a ways to go before it comes in touch with the 2011 low of about 3.16%. DJ30 -117.80 NASDAQ -26.55 SP500 -12.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 570/870 mln/1863 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 639/370 mln/2205

11:00 am : The stock market continues to wrestle with sellers. Of the 10 major sectors that make up the S&P 500, only consumer staples are in positive territory. Still, the sector's gain amounts to a mere 0.1%. ConAgra (CAG 25.61, +0.86) is a primary source of support in the sector, following its offer to acquire Ralcorp (RAH 89.12, +5.79) for $86 per share in cash. The offer represents a premium of about 3% over the stock's prior session closing price. However, the offer price is more than 20% above the levels that RAH traded at last week, when rumors of an offer began to circulate. Still, the belief that the deal must be sweetened in order to be approved, or that another suitor will enter the fold has helped shares of RAH climb almost 7%.DJ30 -92.37 NASDAQ -18.56 SP500 -9.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 610/690 mln/1781 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 663/300 mln/2139

10:35 am : Oil prices are down 1.9% to a weekly low of $109.00 per barrel following oil inventory data for the week ended April 29. Oil inventories had a build of 3.42 million barrels, which is far greater than the consensus call for a build of 600,000 barrels.

Natural gas prices are down 1.1% to $4.69 per MMBtu. That's just a penny above the weekly low that they set earlier this morning.

As for precious metals, silver prices continue to get slammed. It was last quoted with a 4.7% loss at $40.60 per ounce, which is almost $8 below its closing price for last week.

Meanwhile, gold prices are down 0.3% to $1535.20 per ounce after the yellow metal failed to sustain a move above the flat line earlier today. DJ30 -95.93 NASDAQ -12.81 SP500 -10.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 670/570 mln/1662 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 697/240 mln/2096

10:00 am : Stocks are sliding to their lowest levels of the morning. Overall losses still aren't that large, though.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for April was just posted. It came in at 52.8, which is down from 57.3 in the prior month and considerably less than the 57.4 that had been broadly expected among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Energy (-1.7%), Financials (-0.8%), Materials (-0.8%), Industrials (-0.8%), Utilities (-0.6%), Health Care (-0.4%), Telecom (-0.3%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.3%), Tech (-0.3%), Consumer Staples (-0.1%)DJ30 -69.55 NASDAQ -6.05 SP500 -8.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 890/315 mln/1280 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 806/150 mln/1826

09:45 am : Energy stocks are under stiff pressure for the third straight session. On Monday the energy sector slid 1.3%, yesterday it dove 2.4%, and today it is down another 1.3%. National Oilwell Varco (NOV 70.33, -2.05), Cameron International (CAM 49.01, 1.78), and Hess Corp (HES 77.63, -2.20) are in some of the worst shape this morning. Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO 70.85, -0.27) and Rowan (RDC 38.57, -0.14) have managed to limit losses, though.

In the backdrop, crude oil prices are down 0.4% to $110.55 per barrel. Prices could swing with the release of weekly inventory data at 10:30 AM ET, though. DJ30 -31.71 NASDAQ +1.28 SP500 -3.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 968/179 mln/1132 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 999/99 mln/1548

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.80. A flat start to today's trade is indicated by broad market stock futures. The lack of direction is somewhat consistent with the wavering action seen in each of the past two sessions. A somewhat disappointing ADP Employment Change report for April has been met with a mixed reaction. Meanwhile, earnings reports continue to lack influence in broad market trade, given the dwindling number of blue chips and bellwethers remaining in the lineup. Commodities continue to come under pressure. As such, oli prices are down modestly to $110.75 per barrel ahead of weekly inventory data at 10:30 AM ET. Silver is down another 2.3% to $41.60 per ounce after it finished last week near $48.50 per ounce, but gold is only fractionally lower today at $1539 per ounce. Weakness among commodities comes in the face of ongoing weakness in the dollar. The dollar has dropped 0.5% against a collection of competing currencies, leaving the Dollar Index at the two-year low set earlier this week.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.50. News that Portugal has been offered a bailout package worth 78 billion euros has failed to help Europe's major bourses in their latest round of trade. As such, the EuroStoxx 50 is down 0.5%. France's CAC is currently off by 0.3%. Lafarge has been a heavy drag on trade, but BNP Paribas has provided support following its better-than-expected quarterly report. Germany's DAX is down 0.3%. Engineering giant Siemens (SI) has been in focus following news that its earnings exceeded expectations, but its top line was rather light. The company increased its forecast, though. German data feature the final April reading for the PMI Services Index, which fell to 56.8 from 57.7 in the preliminary reading. Britain's FTSE has fallen to a 0.% loss. Its drop comes amid news that the United Kingdom Construction PMI for April retreated to 53.3 from 56.4 in March and that house prices in the United Kingdom fell 0.2% in April after a 0.5% increase in March. As for broader eurozone data, the final PMI Services reading for April came in at 56.7, which is down slightly from the 56.9 that was posted in the preliminary report. Retail sales in the eurozone during March fell by 1.0% after a 0.3% increase in February.

Widespread weakness weighed heavily on overnight action in Asia. The broad selling effort took China's Shanghai Composite to a 2.3% loss. Concerns about a possible interest rate hike continue to loom. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was unable to escape sellers. In turn, it dropped 1.4%. Although losses were broad, property plays continue to encounter some of the sharpest selling interest. Japan's Nikkei remained closed for holiday observance.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.70. Stock futures remain flat following the latest ADP Employment Change, which suggests that private payrolls increased by 179,000 in April. That pales in comparison with the expected increase of 200,000 private payrolls, as estimated by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. As an aside, the ADP report for March was revised upward to reflect the addition of 207,000 private payrolls. Although stock futures haven't moved much in the wake of the report, the dollar has descended deeper into negative territory so that it now trails a basket of competing currencies by 0.4%. That has the Dollar Index only fractionally above the two-year low that it set earlier this week.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.80. Stock futures are essentially flat this morning. The tepid tone comes amid renewed weakness abroad, where Europe's major bourses are down with varied losses following news that Portugal has been offered a 78 billion euro bailout. Overnight action in Asia saw the Shanghai Composite slump to a 2.3% loss and the Hang Seng settle 1.4% lower. With fewer blue chips making announcements, earnings haven't done anything to bolster buying interest this morning. The ADP Employment Report for April is due at 8:15 AM ET. The economic calendar also features the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, which is due at 10:00 AM ET. Weekly oil inventory data are due at 10:30 AM ET.

06:54 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.50.

06:54 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...23315.24...-318.00...-1.40%.

06:54 am : FTSE...6028.28...-54.60...-0.90%. DAX...7473.18...-27.50...-0.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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