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 Post subject: May 2nd Monday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +5.40
PostPosted: Tue May 03, 2011 7:45 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +5.40 points or $540.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=827.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=138&t=1058

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Slip As Economy Trumps Bin Laden News
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer
May 2, 2011: 4:33 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks edged lower on Monday as investors shifted their focus back to the economy and earnings news.

It was a reversal from the initial positive reaction to the news that Osama bin Laden had been killed by U.S. forces. Traders and investors said it will take more to sustain a longer rally.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 3 points, or less than 0.1%, to 12,807. The Dow had been up as much as 60 points earlier in the day.

The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 2.4 points, or 0.2%, to 1,361; and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost 9 points, or 0.3%, to 2,864.

"Once the bin Laden news settles and earnings season slows down, we'll be due for a pullback," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist with D.A. Davidson & Co. "Bin Laden's death doesn't eliminate the risk factors and it doesn't settle the political uprising issues in the Mideast."

Monday's losses ends what was a five-day long positive streak for the S&P 500 and Dow.

Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), Merck (MRK, Fortune 500) and American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) led the blue chips higher Monday, but shares of Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) offset the gains and weighed down the tech sector. Applied Materials (AMAT, Fortune 500) and Whole Foods (WFMI, Fortune 500) were the Nasdaq's biggest laggards.

The losses on Monday come after stocks finished their best month this year on Friday.

Stocks have headed higher since the beginning of the year amid strong earnings. Despite jitters about the economy and concerns about inflation, April was the best month for the three indexes since December.

* Video - Markets React to bin Laden's death

Corporate earnings have largely come in above expectations, but last week's weak GDP reading and higher-than-forecast jobless claims show there's still cause for concern about the U.S. economic recovery.

U.S. investors will get the April jobs report, a closely watched gauge of U.S. economic activity, this upcoming Friday.

Commodities and currencies: Oil prices edged lower with June oil futures falling 0.4% to $113.52 a barrel.

"Oil can be a globally emotional, reactive market, and any time that geopolitical risk is reduced there is less fear in the oil markets," said Derek Hoffman, chief executive and founder of Wall St. Cheat Sheet. "The news that there was a successful effort to find, capture and kill the number one terrorist in the world is a positive sign."
Track oil, gold and other commodities

Gold prices also backed off their highs Monday. Gold futures for June delivery fell $9.50 to $1,547.00 an ounce, after hitting an intraday high of $1,577.40 an ounce.

Meanwhile, silver prices plunged nearly 10% to $44.12 an ounce on concerns that the precious metal, which is up nearly 40% this year, is overbought.

In currencies, the dollar fell against the euro, but gained strength against the Japanese yen and the British pound.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged higher, pushing the yield down to 3.29%.

It's shaping up to be a big week for bonds, with the Treasury Department expected to announce details of its quarterly refunding on Wednesday.

World markets: Markets around the world had a muted reaction to Osama bin Laden's death, with Britain's FTSE 100, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong and the Shanghai Composite all closed for holiday.

Other European markets rose slightly. The DAX in Germany rose 0.3% and France's CAC 40 closed up 0.1%. Japan's Nikkei ended the session 1.6% higher.

Economy: The Institute for Supply Management said its April manufacturing index fell to a reading of 60.4%, better than the reading of 58.5% that economists had expected.

Companies: The Nasdaq-100 index will be rebalanced to reduce the weight of Apple's stock by about 40%. Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) currently represents 20.5% of the index. After the rebalancing, Apple's weight will be reduced to 12.3%.

Shares of TiVo (TIVO) closed up 3% after DISH Network Corporation (DISH, Fortune 500) and EchoStar Corporation (SATS) announced they will pay TiVo $500 million to settle an ongoing patent dispute.

Separately, DISH reported earnings per share of $1.22 for the quarter ended in March, easily topping forecasts. Also, DISH said it gained approximately 58,000 net subscribers during the quarter. Shares of DISH jumped 19%.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

5:00 pm : The stock market extended its near three-year high this morning, but a lack of direction in afternoon action ultimately led to the broad market's first loss in five sessions.

News that U.S. forces killed terrorist leader Osama bin Laden dominated headlines all day, but the stock market lacked a discernible reaction to the story. And since many overseas markets were closed for holiday observance, traders had few cues to follow.

The broad market was initially helped by modest buying this morning. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow came closer to fresh three-year highs, but the Nasdaq actually hit its highest level in a decade. A lack of leadership and a 1.3% drop among energy stocks eventually led the market lower, though.

Energy's decline came in the face of a rebound by oil prices, which had been down to about $111 per barrel overnight, but finished with a 0.4% loss near $113.50 per barrel. Oil's bounce was helped by another decline in the dollar, which set a new two-year low against a collection of competing currencies. The greenback cut its loss to finish the trading day unchanged, though.

Health care stocks made up the only sector to sustain any kind of strong gain. The sector settled 1.0% for the better amid support from biotech plays, which were propped up by news that Cephalon (CEPH 80.11, +3.09) will be acquired by Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA 47.27, +1.54) for $81.50 per share, which is a premium of almost 6% over its closing price from last week. Elsewhere in the health care sector, Humana (HUM 76.48, +0.36) reported in-line earnings and an upside forecast.

Data had little impact on trade, but featured the April ISM Manufacturing Index. It came in at 60.4, which is greater than the 59.7 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Construction spending during March increased by 1.4%, which is surprisingly strong, given that the consensus among economists surveyed on behalf of Briefing.com had called for no change.

Advancing Sectors: Utilities (+1.0%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.3%), Consumer Staples (+0.2%), Utilities (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Industrials (-0.1%), Telecom (-0.2%), Financials (-0.4%), Tech (-0.4%), Materials (-0.6%), Energy (-1.3%)DJ30 -3.18 NASDAQ -9.46 NQ100 +0.00% R2K -1.2% SP400 -0.6% SP500 -2.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 822/2.07 bln/1808 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1242/934 mln/1747

3:30 pm : June crude oil finished lower by 0.4% to $113.52 per barrel, after recouping most of its overnight losses stemming from last night's news that the US had killed Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden. Crude did trade into positive during the session, but was unable to maintain those gains heading into the close of pit trade. It was an uneventful session for June natural gas, which finished near flat at $4.69 per MMBtu.

Margin concerns weighed heavily on July silver, which finished close down 4.8% to $46.25 per ounce. Technical selling also pushed prices lower after silver failed to break above $50 in overnight trade. June gold finished higher by 0.1% to $1558.70 per ounce. Weakness in the dollar helped gold prices move off the flat line in pit trade. DJ30 -2.39 NASDAQ -4.93 SP500 -1.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 884/1.7 bln/1703 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1300/625.6 mln/1680

3:00 pm : Although losses aren't yet anything substantial, stocks are slipping again.

Treasuries haven't really reacted to the move; instead, they are stuck at the flat line. According to CNBC, the Treasury will suspend issuance of SLUGs, or state and local government series debt, in order to give the federal government more room to borrow. SLUGs are often created expressly for municipalities to use in escrowing outstanding bonds.

Only an hour remains in today's trade. That starts a shift in the focus of traders to the next round of earnings to tonight's lot, which features the latest from Hartford Financial (HIG 28.76, -0.21), Principal Financial Group (PFG 33.62, -0.13), and Anadarko Petroleum (APC 80.10, +1.16). Tomorrow morning brings Archer Daniels Midland (ADM 37.00, -0.02), Duke Energy (DUK 18.78, +0.13), Pfizer (PFE 210.3, +0.06), and MasterCard (MA 276.02, +0.13). DJ30 -4.09 NASDAQ -3.52 SP500 -1.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 920/1.56 mln/1668 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1317/570 mln/1643

2:30 pm : The stock market continues to experience difficulty in putting together a sustainable move higher. The tight-range chop comes after the stock market had managed to muster enough upward momentum this morning to extend its near three-year high.

Financials and tech stocks were primary sources of weakness a couple of hours ago, but they have managed to stabilize. In the meantime, energy stocks have moved deeper into negative territory, so that the sector now trades with a 1.0% loss. Energy's downturn comes even though oil prices have successfully trimmed morning losses so that they are unchanged for the session at $113.55 per barrel. DJ30 +10.41 NASDAQ -1.99 SP500 -0.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 964/1.45 bln/1610 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1380/520 mln/1563

2:00 pm : Stocks have been unable to extend their recent upturn. As a result, action remains mixed.

Small-cap stocks remain in weak shape, though. Their relative risk has caused traders to spurn them. In turn, the S&P 600 Small-Cap Index is down 0.5% and the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index is down 0.7%.

In contrast, large-cap stocks have helped the Nasdaq 100 muster a 0.3% gain. DJ30 +10.22 NASDAQ -0.77 SP500 +0.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 947/1.34 bln/1607 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1360/480 mln/1575

1:30 pm : The Dow and S&P 500 have poked back into positive territory. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is at the neutral line.

Treasuries have forfeited some of their gains with the stock market's recent upturn. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is now up only a couple of ticks for the day. DJ30 +20.17 NASDAQ -0.35 SP500 +1.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 957/1.26 bln/1594 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1350/445 mln/1554

1:00 pm : Modest buying this morning took the stock market to its best level in almost three years, but sellers have since surfaced to pressure the move.

Stocks started the session in higher ground, but lacked a direction in the opening hour. Traders' attention was mostly tuned into news that U.S. forces killed terrorist leader Osama bin Laden. The stock market has yet to show any clear indication about what that news means for market participants.

The news was widely cited as a cause for an early morning drop in oil prices to about $111 per barrel, but it has since worked its way up to $113.85 per barrel, which makes for a loss of only a few cents. Part of oil's rebound is owed to another drop in the dollar, which set a new two-year low against a collection of major foreign currencies. The Dollar Index is still near that low as it trades with a 0.3% loss.

The dollar's decline has also helped silver prices recover from a precipitous plung that had the precious metal below $43 per ounce yesterday. Silver now trades with a 4.3% loss at $46.50 per ounce.

Stocks haven't shown a positive response to renewed weakness in the dollar. After it had been up with a solid gain this morning, the broad market is now down with a fractional loss.

Both financials and tech have become broad market burdens. The sectors are down 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. They also represent two of the heaviest sectors by market weight.

Health care stocks continue to perform well, though. The sector is up an enviable 1.0%. Cephalon (CEPH 80.24, +3.22) is a leader in the sector following news that it will be acquired by Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA 46.64, +0.91) for $81.50 per share, which is a premium of almost 6% over its closing price from last week. Humana (HUM 76.22, +0.10) is up more modestly following its latest quarterly announcement, which featured in-line earnings and an upside forecast.

The latest dose of data featured a stronger-than-expected ISM Manufacturing Index reading of 60.4 for April and surprise increase of 1.4% in construction spending during March. DJ30 +3.48 NASDAQ -7.57 SP500 -0.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 888/1.17 bln/1650 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1289/405 mln/1633

12:30 pm : Following a momentary pause, sellers have increased selling pressure to take the stock market down to a session low.

Amid the market's decline and a recent dip by the dollar, precious metals have made an upward turn. As a result, gold prices are now up 0.3% to $1561 per ounce. Silver prices are now down 4.7% at $46.33 per ounce. Recent swings in silver prices have brought about considerable trading volume in the iShares silver ETF (SLF 45.20, -1.68). In fact, share volume in the silver ETF is currently about 50% higher than that of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY 136.38, -0.05). DJ30 -5.07 NASDAQ -9.83 SP500 -1.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 884/1.04 bln/1644 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1244/374 mln/1657

12:00 pm : Follow through selling pressure has put the Nasdaq Composite in negative territory. Its loss is only fractional, though.

Large-cap tech plays like Microsoft (MSFT 25.62, -0.30) and Google (GOOG 540.68, -3.42) have weighed heavily on the Nasdaq. Yahoo! (YHOO 18.12, +0.42) is up with an eviable gain of more than 2%, however; the stock has climbed in the wake of news that Greenlight Capital has a material stake in shares of the Internet search stock. DJ30 +22.55 NASDAQ -1.23 SP500 +1.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1030/905 mln/1474 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1458/325 mln/1420

11:30 am : A recent flurry of selling has cut into the stock market's gain, but it still remains above session lows.

Financials have been a primary target of sellers' actions. The sector had been up solidly in the early going, but now it is down to a 0.1% loss. Telecom stocks were up almost 1% this morning, but that sector has since been backed down to a gain of only 0.1%.

However, health care stocks have shown an immunity to the recent fit of selling pressure. As such, the sector continues to sport a 1.2% gain. DJ30 +34.36 NASDAQ +3.19 SP500 +2.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1131/796 mln/1371 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1545/285 mln/1309

11:00 am : The dollar has come under increased pressure in recent trade. In turn, the greenback is now trails a basket of major foreign currencies by 0.3%, which is enough to take the Dollar Index down to its lowest level since July of 2008.

Meanwhile, the stock market has worked its way up to a session high. Although its overall gain remains relatively modest, the S&P 500 is at its best level since June of 2008. As for the Dow, it is at its best level in almost three years. More impressive is that the Nasdaq is actually now at its highest level since 2000.DJ30 +49.76 NASDAQ +11.06 SP500 +5.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1311/655 mln/1148 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1752/237 mln/1087

10:30 am : In electronic trade Sunday evening (~6pm ET), silver futures plummeted ~12% to around $42.20/oz. Gold futures sold off as well, but fell a more modest 2.3%, compared to silver plunge, to ~1541.00/oz. Silver has recovered a little more than half of its losses, but remains notable lower at $46.19, down 5%. Gold recovered around half of its losses and is back in to positive territory now at $1559.90 +0.2%.

Crude oil trade in the red in overnight activity. The energy component moved into positive territory about 45 minutes into this morning's pit trading session and pushed through the $114/level. It's currently 0.4% higher a $114.35/barrel.

Natural gas began to sell-off just after 8:00am ET and shed about 1.6% over the next half an hour. It recovered almost all of its gains following a small rally when floor trade began, but natural gas lost steam and is now lower again, currently at $4.76 down 0.1%.DJ30 +59.68 NASDAQ +11.19 SP500 +6.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1295/498.6 mln/1116 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1793/185.5 mln/997

10:05 am : The ISM Manufacturing Index for April came in at 60.4, which is greater than the 59.7 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. However, the latest Index is down from the 61.2 that was posted for the prior month.

Construction spending during March increased by 1.4%, which is surprisingly strong given that the consensus among economists surveyed on behalf of Briefing.com had called for no change.

The latest dose of data has been followed by a modest bounce among the major equity averages. Overall gains are still narrow, though.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (+0.8%), Health Care (+0.8%), Telecom (+0.8%), Utilities (+0.3%), Materials (+0.2%), Consumer Staples (+0.2%), Financials (+0.2%), Industrials (+0.1%)
Unchanged: Tech
Declining Sectors: Energy (-0.1%)DJ30 +45.71 NASDAQ +6.10 SP500 +4.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1270/320 mln/1053 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1751/135 mln/956

09:45 am : The major equity averages have eased back a bit in recent trade, but overall they are still up with modest gains this morning.

Health care stocks and consumer discretionary stocks are this morning's top performers. Both of the two sectors are up 0.6%. Harley-Davidson (HOG 37.84, +0.58), which announced early this morning that it will increase its quarterly dividend by 25% to $0.125 per share, is a primary leader among consumer discretionary plays. Cephalon (CEPH 80.96, +3.94) is a leader among health care issues following news that it will be acquired by Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA 47.09, +1.36) for $81.50 per share, which is a premium of almost 6% over its closing price from last week. DJ30 +25.84 NASDAQ +1.73 SP500 +2.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1215/200 mln/1057 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1573/95 mln/1074

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.90. Stock futures point to a solid start to the week, but commodities have come under pressure. Corporate headlines have been light, so most of this morning's focus has been on news that U.S. forces killed terrorist leader Osama bin Laden. Overseas markets have generally moved higher in overnight trade, but many remained closed for holiday observance. The dollar is currently down about 0.1% against a basket of major foreign currencies, so it remains quite close to its two-year low. Participants get their hands on some key pieces of data later this morning. Specifically, the latest ISM Manufacturing Index and construction spending report are due at 10:00 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.10. Crude oil futures prices are down 1.7% to $112 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are off by 0.6% at $4.74 per MMBtu. Silver has recovered from a plunge that took prices down below $43 per ounce yesterday; they continue to grappble with a 6.5% loss at $45.45 per ounce, though. Gold prices are essentially unchanged at about $1556 per ounce. Some of this morning's action among commoditities is owed to moves that they have made with their own volition, but news that U.S. forces have killed terrorist leader Osama bin Laden is also believed to be playing a part.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.10. Action in Europe has the EuroStoxx 50 up 0.3%. Among the more widely watched bourses, Germany's DAX is currently up an impressive 0.8%, but France's CAC is up a relatively tame 0.3%. Within the CAC, Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) has climbed to its highest level in more than two years, but its leadership has been partly offset by weakness in STMicroelectronics. Britain's FTSE is closed for holiday, but Spain's IBEX is up 0.4%. Japan's Nikkei climbed 1.6% in Monday's trade. Buying was broad, but it was led by the likes of Shin-Etsu Chemical, Chiba Bank, Honda Motor (HMC), and Mazda Motor. Mizuho Securities and Fujitsu were notable laggards. The Nikkei will be closed for holiday observance from Tuesday through Thursday. Both Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's Shanghai Composite were closed on Monday for holiday observance.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.90. News that U.S. forces killed Osama Bin Laden has dominated morning media. What that will mean for markets is speculative, but for now stock futures sport a strong lead over fair value. Meanwhile, crude oil futures prices are down 1.6% to $112.15 per barrel ahead of pit trade. At the same time, silver prices have plunged more than 7% to $45.05 per ounce. Gold is down a far more modest 0.3% to $1552 per ounce. Several overseas markets are closed for holiday observance today, but many others have put together varied gains. The flow of earnings announcements has slowed since last week, but a few widely held names are out this morning. Among them, Lowes Corp (L) announced an upside earnings surprise. Humana (HUM) met expectations, but issued upside guidance. The latest ISM Manufacturing Index is due at 10:00 AM ET. Construction spending data will be released at the same time.

06:29 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.90.

06:29 am : Nikkei...10004.20...+154.50...+1.60%. Hang Seng...Holiday.........

06:29 am : FTSE...Holiday......... DAX...7585.00...+70.50...+0.90%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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