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 Post subject: April 28th Thursday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +1.50
PostPosted: Fri Apr 29, 2011 7:02 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +1.50 points or $150.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=88&t=822.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=137&t=1015

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Hit Fresh Highs As Dollar Weakens
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer
April 28, 2011: 4:46 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks rose to multi-year highs on Thursday, as investors dismissed a series of mixed earnings reports as well as disappointing economic news.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 72 points, or 0.6%; to close at 12,763.

Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) led the Dow higher, with its shares rising more than 3% a day after the company reported its quarterly results. Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) was among the biggest drag on the blue-chip index, after it reported sales that fell short of forecasts. Exxon Mobil's stock slid less than 1%.

S&P 500 (SPX) rose 5 points, or 0.4%, to 1,360; and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose a modest 3 points, or 0.1%, to 2,873.

Both the Dow and the S&P 500 ended at levels not seen since May 2008.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq was weighed down by shares of Akamai Technologies (AKAM), which dropped 14% after the company warned that sales would fall short of expectations. Still the Nasdaq closed at its highest level since December 2000.

* How the dollar rout could turn ugly

Investors said Thursday's gains were in part a continuation of Wednesday's session, when stocks hit new highs following Fed chief Ben Bernanke's first post-policy meeting press conference.

"A lot of the action is a repeat of what we had yesterday following the Fed announcement, we got the dollar declining, stocks rising and gold heading higher," said Brian Gendreau, market strategist with Financial Network.

The U.S. dollar fell against the euro, British pound and Japanese yen, with the U.S. Dollar Index, a security that tracks the dollar's value against other major currencies, struck its lowest level in 21 months.

* Video - Is the Fed out of bullets?

Economy: The dollar's decline was in part due to the weaker-than-expected economic data that was out on Thursday.

The Department of Commerce released its report on first-quarter gross domestic product, showing that first-quarter GDP expanded at an annual rate of 1.8%, falling short of the 2% growth economists surveyed by CNNMoney had forecast.

The government also reported its weekly initial jobless claims data. The Labor Department reported that jobless claims totaled 429,000 last week.

That was worse than expected and also marked the third week in a row that jobless claims came in above the key 400,000 level.

A report from the National Association of Realtors showed a 5.1% rise in pending home sales for March, much higher than the 1.7% rise economists had expected.

Companies:Citrix Systems (CTXS) shares jumped 9.7% on Thursday, making it the best performer on the S&P 500, after the software supplier posted a strong jump in profits and higher-than-expected revenue.

Norfolk Southern (NSC, Fortune 500)'s stock rose 8% after the company reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue.

After the closing bell, Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) reported a quarterly profit of $5.2 billion, up 31% from a year earlier, on sales of $16.4 billion. Earnings and revenue topped forecasts.

Shares of Research in Motion (RIMM) plunged 12% in after-market trading after the BlackBerry maker cut its revenue forecast, citing lower than expected demand for smartphones.

Exelon (EXC, Fortune 500) an electric utility, announced a merger with Constellation Energy (CEG, Fortune 500), a supplier of natural gas and other energy products. The deal is worth $7.9 billion. Constellation's stock rose 3.5%.

World markets: European stocks closed higher. Britain's FTSE 100 rose less than 0.1%, the DAX in Germany added 1% and France's CAC 40 advanced 0.9%.

Asian markets ended mixed. Japan's Nikkei index rallied 1.6%, but the Shanghai Composite dropped 1.3% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong edged down 0.4%.

Currencies and commodities: Oil for June delivery rose 11 cents to $112.68 a barrel.

Gold futures for June delivery rose $14.20 to settle at a record high of $1,531.20 an ounce. Earlier, gold hit a new intraday record of $1,535.50 an ounce and moved even higher in electronic trading.

Silver jumped more than 5% to $48.29 an ounce on Thursday.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 3.30% from 3.37% late Wednesday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : It took stocks a while to muster any kind of upward momentum, but the major equity averages managed to make modest gains, which ultimately extended their recent highs.

Even though there was a rush of headlines this morning, stocks struggled to establish a clear direction. Participants first got their hands on another big batch of quarterly reports, but those announcements became of secondary concern with the release of the advance reading on first quarter GDP. Although the economy grew from January through March at an annualized rate of 1.8%, which is greater than the 1.7% increase that had been broadly expected to follow the 3.1% spike in the fourth quarter, participants were disappointed with the latest initial jobless claims tally.

Initial claims for the week ended April 23 totaled 429,000, which is greater than the 390,000 initial claims that had been expected, on average, among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Given that initial claims have climbed back above 400,000 and exceeded expectations in each of the past several weeks, some consternation has been developing among market participants.

The latest round of earnings reports didn't induce much trading in the overall market, but there were a few movers in the pack. Akamai Tech (AKAM 34.94, -6.04) dove sharply as participants ignored an upside earnings surprise and plans to repurchase shares to focus on the company's cautious commentary and outlook. Norfolk Southern (NSC 73.87, +5.46) moved in the other direction; its spike to a record high followed stronger-than-expected earnings.

Dow component Exxon Mobil (XOM 87.34, -0.44) moved modestly lower, despite an upside earnings surprise. Fellow blue chip Procter & Gamble (PG 64.50, +0.48) actually came short of the consensus earnings estimate, but still booked a gain. PepsiCo (PEP 69.72, +1.79), eBay (EBAY 34.00, -0.03), Colgate-Palmolive (CL 82.97, +1.91), AstraZeneca (AZN 49.90, -1.72), BristolMyersSquibb (BMY 28.29, +0.01), and Aetna (AET 41.45, +1.64) all posted better-than-expected bottom line results.

Trade today wasn't very dramatic. In fact, stocks spent most of the session stuck near the neutral line. It was only in the final hour that the market managed to move out of its trading range, mostly with its own volition.

Treasuries managed to put together modest gains of their own, even though the results from an auction of 7-year Notes proved unimpressive. The auction drew a bid-to-cover of 2.63, dollar demand of $76.3 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 38.7%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover of 2.79, dollar demand of $80.9 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 49.4%.

Precious metals continue to put on a show that has repeatedly featured new highs. Gold gained 0.9% to settle at $1530.60 per ounce after it reached a record high of almost $1539 per ounce. Silver prices pushed closer to $50 per ounce for a fresh 30-year high, but settled with a 4.2% gain at $47.90 per ounce.

Advancing Sectors:Consumer Staples (+0.8%), Financials (+0.8%), Utilities (+0.7%), Health Care (+0.5%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.4%), Materials (+0.3%), Industrials (+0.3%), Telecom (+0.2%)
Unchanged: Tech
Declining Sectors: Energy (-0.2%)DJ30 +72.35 NASDAQ +2.65 NQ100 -0.2% R2K +0.4% SP400 +0.2% SP500 +4.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1437/1.99 bln/1129 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1838/958 mln/1144

3:30 pm : Silver prices put on another strong performance. After stretching to almost $50 per ounce to set a new 30-year high, silver prices settled with a 4.2% gain at $47.90 per ounce. Gold prices settled at $1530.60 per ounce to post a 0.9% gain after they set a record high of almost $1539 per ounce.

Oil had a rather volatile session that saw prices climb to a new 2011 high of almost $114 per barrel before it fell below $112 per barrel in early afternoon trade. It closed just below $113 per barrel, essentially unchanged.

A smaller-than-expected build in weekly inventories helped natural gas prices put together a gain of about 3% near $4.63 per MMBtu. DJ30 +71.90 NASDAQ +2.00 SP500 +4.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1352/1.65 bln/1210 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1769/676 mln/1199

3:00 pm : Stocks recently returned to session highs, but they have been unable to build on the move.

Despite the number of headlines for traders to act on, share volume remains unimpressive with hardly 600 million shares traded, so far, on the NYSE.

More than 100 companies are scheduled to report earnings after today's close. Another 40 or so are scheduled for tomorrow morning. A complete list of companies slated to report and respective earnings estimates are available directly from Briefing.com. DJ30 +48.78 NASDAQ -2.04 SP500 +2.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1230/1.47 bln/1310 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1674/593 mln/1284

2:30 pm : A stronger-than-expected earnings report from Norfolk Southern (NSC 74.14, +5.73) has the stock up more than 8% to its best level on record. That strength has helped lift shares of several other rail carriers to marked gains, which have helped prop up the Dow Jones Transportation Index to a gain of about 1%. Meanwhile, the broad market remains mired near the neutral line; it has been unable to sustain any kind of bounce at all today.DJ30 +31.79 NASDAQ -6.50 SP500 +1.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1172/1.35 bln/1338 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1619/540 mln/1321

2:00 pm : Trade is still choppy, but the Dow is on pace for its sixth gain in seven sessions. General Electric (GE 20.54, -0.11), a leader in the prior session, is down today, but Boeing (BA 78.01, +1.89) has been a source of strength as it bounces to its highest level in almost three years following positive analyst commentary.DJ30 +37.54 NASDAQ -5.54 SP500 +1.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1166/1.25 bln/1333 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1581/498 mln/1351

1:30 pm : Results from an auction of 7-year Notes were released at 1:00 PM ET. They featured a bid-to-cover of 2.63, dollar demand of $76.3 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 38.7%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover of 2.79, dollar demand of $80.9 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 49.4%. An average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 2.84, dollar demand of $82.4 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 51.3%.

Treasuries have been hit with selling pressure in response to the auction results. That has dashed the gains of the benchmark 10-year Note, which is now only narrowly up for the session. DJ30 +32.39 NASDAQ -6.56 SP500 +0.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1120/1.16 bln/1352 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1564/460 mln/1347

1:05 pm : The stock market stretched to its highest level in almost three years yesterday, but trade today has lacked direction as participants digest a mix of earnings and data.

Early participants were inundated with a deluge of earnings announcements. PepsiCo (PEP 69.10, +1.17), eBay (EBAY 33.88, -0.15), Colgate-Palmolive (CL 82.11, +1.05), AstraZeneca (AZN 49.56, -2.06), BristolMyersSquibb (BMY 28.20, -0.08), and Aetna (AET 41.54, +1.73) are among those that posted better-than-expected earnings. Akamai Tech (AKAM 35.00, -5.98) also posted an upside surprise, but management's commentary and outlook caused concern among investors, who have since dumped the stock in high volume. Share volume in AKAM today is already quadruple its daily average. Procter & Gamble (PG 64.45, +0.43) is one of the few names that actually reported an earnings miss this morning, but its shares have managed to rebound to a modest gain.

However, the market hasn't really been motivated by earnings reports, which are sharing time in the financial media for the second straight session. Yesterday it was the FOMC policy statement and comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke that attracted the focus of investors, but today plenty of attention has been placed on actual data.

The advance first quarter GDP reading showed economic growth of 1.8%, which is slightly greater than the 1.7% increase that had been broadly expected to follow the 3.1% spike in the fourth quarter. Even though Bernanke outlined yesterday a reduced forecast for unemployment, investors were disappointed by the latest initial jobless claims count, which unexpectedly remained above 400,000 (429,000 to be specific).

As for action among commodities, oil prices have surrendered a gain of about 1% to now trade with a 0.3% loss at $112.45 per barrel. Precious metals continue to outperform, though. In fact, gold prices are up 1.0% to $1532 per ounce after they set a new record high of almost $1539 per ounce earlier today. Silver prices are up 5.8% at $48.60 per ounce after trading as high as $49.80 per ounce, which extends the metal's recent run. DJ30 +46.39 NASDAQ -4.28 SP500 +1.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1181/1.06 bln/1278 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1626/425 mln/1267

12:30 pm : The top of the hour brings results from an auction of 7-year Notes. Treasuries have been trading with strength ahead of that announcement. In fact, the benchmark 10-year Note has been up with a steady gain of about a dozen ticks all day.DJ30 +33.19 NASDAQ -3.71 SP500 +1.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1177/960 mln/1251 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1623/380 mln/1247

12:00 pm : A sudden flurry of selling recently backed down stocks. The move actually put the Nasdaq at a session low.

The dollar has made an upturn, though. It had been trailing a collection of major foreign currencies by a fair margin, but now it is only 0.1% behind that basket. Even though the dollar has this session in the red, it is still above yesterday's low, which marked its worst level in more than a year. DJ30 +14.57 NASDAQ -8.31 SP500 +0.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1068/860 mln/1342 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1490/340 mln/1375

11:30 am : The three major equity averages have each made a modest move to session highs. Still, the Dow and S&P 500 are only up with narrow gains and the Nasdaq is stuck at the unchanged mark.

Energy stocks are now unchanged. The sector had been down about 1% this morning. Its newfound strength comes as oil prices push up to $113.75 per barrel, which makes for a 0.9% gain today and a 24% gain for 2011. Oil prices had actually been flat earlier this morning.

Meanwhile, materials stocks continue to climb higher. The sector is now up 0.9%. Gold stocks have been benefiting from investors' appetite for both physical gold, which is now up 1.4% to $1538.50 per ounce, and natural resouce-related stocks. That interest, along with an analyst upgrade, has helped Barrick Gold (ABX 51.64, +0.82) extend its bounce off of the one-month low that it set yesterday. DJ30 +31.22 NASDAQ -1.16 SP500 +2.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1146/730 mln/1247 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1664/298 mln/1167

11:00 am : The major equity averages are stuck in choppy trade near the neutral line. Leadership has been lacking.

Materials stocks, which make up one of the least heavily weighted sectors in the stock market, are up 0.6%. That makes them this session's strongest performing group. International Paper (IP 31.19, +1.21) has been a top performer in the space, thanks to a better-than-expected earnings report. Dow Chemical (DOW 40.39, +0.47) has also provided a boost to the sector on the back of its own upside earnings surprise. DJ30 +19.68 NASDAQ -2.24 SP500 +1.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1097/595 mln/1242 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1531/245 mln/1267

10:30 am : Natural gas prices are spiking in response to news that inventories for the week ended April 22 had a build of 31 bcf, which contrasts with the consensus call for a build of 35 bcf. Prices were last quoted with a 3.0% gain at $4.61 per MMBtu. In the few minutes that preceded the report they had been up about 1.3%.

Crude oil prices are fractionally above the flat line this morning. They were last quoted at $112.85 per barrel.

Precious metals prices continue to climb. Their advance has gold up 1.2% at $1535.30 per ounce, which is about a dollar shy of the record high that it set earlier today. As for silver, it has surged 6.6% to $49 per ounce, which is just a few cents off of the 30-year high that it recorded earlier today. DJ30 +14.23 NASDAQ -3.53 SP500 +0.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1038/445 mln/1222 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1457/194 mln/1290

10:05 am : Stocks began to make a modest upward push in the minutes that preceded the pending home sales report. They have started to slip in the report's wake, even though pending home sales actually proved stronger than anticipated.

Pending home sales for March increased by 5.1%, which is far greater than the 1.7% increase that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Advancing Sectors: Health Care (+0.1%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%), Financials (+0.2%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.3%), Industrials (+0.3%), Telecom (+0.6%), Materials (+0.6%)
Declining Sectors: Tech (-0.1%), Utilities (-0.2%), Energy (-0.3%)DJ30 +11.65 NASDAQ -3.23 SP500 +0.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1051/280 mln/1133 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1390/130 mln/1274

09:45 am : Energy stocks are under stiff pressure this morning. Their collective slide of 0.9% comes amid a negative response to the latest report from Exxon Mobil (XOM 87.05, -0.73), which actually featured a better-than-expected bottom line. Fellow integrated play ConocoPhillips (COP 77.81, -2.02) has extended its prior session slide following its downgrade by analysts at Deutsche Bank.

In contrast, telecom is outperforming for the second straight session. The sector is up 0.6%. Sprint Nextel (S 4.93, +0.14) is a top performer in its space following its latest quarterly report, which featured stronger-than-expected results on both the top and bottom line. DJ30 +10.07 NASDAQ -4.93 SP500 -0.61

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.70. The stock market stretched to its highest level in almost three years yesterday, but the mood this morning is weaker. In turn, stock futures point to a slightly lower start to today's session. The unenthusiastic tone follows a barrage of better-than-expected earnings reports and news that GDP increased by a slightly stronger-than-expected 1.8% in the first quarter. Other data indicated that the latest weekly initial jobless claims count climbed unexpectedly again. Still on today's calendar is the latest in pending home sales (10:00 AM ET), natural gas inventory (10:30 AM ET), and results from an auction of 7-year Notes (1:00 PM ET).

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.40. Germany's DAX is currently up 0.5%. Deutsche Bank (DB) is a primary source of strength following its better-than-expected earnings report. SAP AG (SAP) has been a considerable drag in the wake of a disappointing report, though. As for data, Germany's April unemployment rate was reported to have remained at 7.1%. In France, the CAC is up a rather tame 0.4% even though Capgemini and Technip SA are the only two names in the 40-member index that have failed to find higher ground. Financial plays Credit Agricole, Axa (AXA), Societe Generale, and BNP Paribas have been primary leaders. Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) has been a middling performer following its stronger-than-expected earnings report. Britain's FTSE is off by 0.2% this session. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) hasn't been a whole lot of help, despite greater-than-expected first quarter income. The latest dose of data for the United Kingdom featured a GfK Consumer Confidence reading that fell to -31.0 in April from -28.00 in March.

Action in Asia was mixed again. Japan's Nikkei outperformed for the second straight session with a 1.6% advance. Its recent strength has the Nikkei at a six-week high. Strength was broad, but Advantest and Kyocera (KYO) were among the top performers. Kyocera's strength followed an impressive quarterly report and forecast. Following the close, Honda (HMC) announced slightly lower-than-expected revenue of 2.21 billion yen. There were no surprises to Japan's latest monetary policy announcement. Property stocks continued to weigh on Hong Kong's Hang Seng, which slipped to a 0.4% loss. PetroChina (PTR) also underperformed amid disappointment over its latest quarterly report. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.3% to a two-month closing low. Concerns about further rate hikes loom. Following the close of trade there, Baidu.com (BIDU) reported better-than-expected results for both its top and bottom line then issued strong guidance.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.20. Stock futures continue to trail fair value in the wake of the advance reading on first quarter GDP. The data indicate that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.8% from January through March. It had been expected, on average, that GDP would grow by 1.7% after a 3.1% spike in the fourth quarter. The GDP deflator for the first quarter increased by 1.9%, which is less than the 2.4% increase that had been broadly anticipated. Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended April 23 totaled 429,000, which is greater than the 390,000 initial claims that represent the Briefing.com consensus. The latest initial claims tally also marks an increase of 25,000 from the prior week. Continuing claims came down to 3.64 million from 3.71 million, though.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.20. Broad market stock futures currently trail fair value. Market participants are processing another large lot of earnings reports, which have been generally better than expected. PepsiCo (PEP), eBay (EBAY), Akamai Tech (AKAM), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), AstraZeneca (AZN), BristolMyersSquibb (BMY), and Aetna (AET) are among those that posted upside earnings surprises. Not all have received a positive response, though. Starbucks (SBUX) merely matched Wall Street's earnings expectations, but Procter & Gamble (PG) is one of the few that actually came short of the consensus earnings estimate. Both are trading lower ahead of the open. Earnings were of secondary interest yesterday, primarily because market participants were focused on the FOMC policy statement and comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke. Today, earnings are sharing the spotlight with the advance reading on first quarter GDP, which is due at the bottom of the hour. Weekly initial jobless claims come at the same time. Later this morning, pending home sales numbers will be posted (10:00 AM ET). Results from an auction of 7-year Notes will be released this afternoon (1:00 PM ET).

06:55 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.40.

06:55 am : Nikkei...9849.74...+157.90...+1.60%. Hang Seng...23805.63...-87.20...-0.40%.

06:55 am : FTSE...6070.03...+1.90...0.00. DAX...7437.54...+32.60...+0.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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