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 Post subject: April 18th Monday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +6.60
PostPosted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 4:20 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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041811-wrbtrader-PnL-Blotter-Profit-660.png [ 32.11 KiB | Viewed 282 times ]

click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +6.60 points or $660.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=88&t=814.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=137&t=1015

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Sink After U.S. Outlook Slashed
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Hibah Yousuf, staff reporter
April 18, 2011: 4:42 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks cut some losses late Monday afternoon, but still finished the session sharply lower after Standard and Poor's cut its long-term outlook on U.S. debt to negative.

"I would say investors have been anticipating this somewhat, but when the shoe falls, it sends a vibration throughout the market," said Ron Kiddoo, chief investment officer at Cozad Asset Management.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) sank 140 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 15 points, or 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost 29 points, or 1.1%.

Earlier in the session, all three indexes were down 2%.

S&P kept its "AAA'"-rating on the world's largest economy, but said it was concerned about the United States' ballooning deficit. While President Obama and GOP leaders have unveiled separate plans to reduce the U.S. deficit, the ratings agency said "the gap between the parties remains too wide."

The news sent stocks plunging right from the open, with 92% of the S&P 500 companies finishing the day in the red, and all but one of the Dow's 30 components trading lower. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) and Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) were the biggest drags on the blue chip index.

Stocks posted their biggest one-day loss since March 16 and are on track to deliver the worst monthly performance since August.

Wall Street's most widely cited measure of volatility and fear, the VIX (VIX), surged more than 12%. But it's still far below 30 -- the level that's considered a benchmark of investor fear.

Nervous investors fled from crude oil, which slipped 2.3% to settle at $107.12 a barrel.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasuries rose, pushing the 10-year yield down to 3.37%.
Gold and silver keep shining. Thanks, S&P!

Gold, a safe-haven commodity, got a boost, with prices up $6.90, or 0.4%, to settle at a record $1,492.90. Earlier, prices climbed to an intraday record of $1,498.60.

The dollar also climbed, rising 1.4% versus the euro and 0.4% against the British pound. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, increased 0.8%.

While Kiddoo is frustrated by lawmakers' failure to compromise in the budget debate so far, he is cautiously optimistic that Congress will be able to work toward an agreement.

And regardless, Kiddoo still considers U.S. debt "the best in the world" and doesn't think its quality is at risk as long as the U.S. economic recovery remains on track.

U.S. stocks finished last week lower as concerns about corporate results plagued the market.

Company earnings: Investors are also on edge as they brace for more than 110 members of the S&P 500 to announce quarterly financial results this week.
0:00 /00:41Citi's credit boost

Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) reported earnings per share of 10 cents Monday morning, which was slightly better than forecast. The bank's credit losses narrowed for the seventh quarter in a row. Citi's stock ended flat.

"Looking back on the first quarter, we saw very anemic performance from the U.S. consumer," said Bruce McCain, chief market strategist with Key Private Bank in Cleveland. "The earnings season will be a lot more intently examined because of that."

World markets: Issues across Europe also weighed on investor sentiment. Early Monday, Ireland suffered another blow in its debt crisis when Moody's Investors Service downgraded the ratings on Irish banks to junk status.

Finland's True Finns party, which opposes European Union bailouts, won significant ground in the country's coalition government. Their success in the election could be seen as another hurdle facing the EU, as it considers more bailout loans for Portugal.

Reports that Greece may be seeking a debt restructuring didn't help either.

European stocks ended lower. Britain's FTSE 100 and the DAX in Germany fell 2.1%, while France's CAC 40 lost 2.4%.

Over the weekend, finance ministers from 20 of the world's largest economies agreed on guidelines for measuring global imbalances.

On Sunday, China's central bank announced that it is once again raising the amount of capital it requires banks to hold in their reserves, as a way to limit lending and curb rapid inflation in the country.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 0.7% and Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.4%, while the Shanghai Composite rose 0.5%.

Economy: The National Association of Home Builders' Housing Market Index fell to 16 in April. Economists were expecting the index to remain unchanged at 17 points.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : The major equity averages worked their way up from session lows, but still settled with losses on the order of 1%. Negativity was initially the result of weakness among Europe's bourses, but it was then exacerbated by news that S&P lowered its outlook on U.S. debt to negative.

Stocks opened trade sharply lower. The initial sell-off came as a culmination of concerns stemming from speculation about debt restructuring for less fiscally responsible eurozone nations like Greece, Ireland, and Portugal and news that analysts at S&P lowered their outlook on U.S. debt to Negative. The AAA rating currently held by the U.S. was affirmed, though.

Those headlines completely overshadowed the latest round of earnings results, which included upside earnings surprises from Citigroup (C 4.42, +0.00), Halliburton (HAL 47.14, +0.32), and Eli Lilly (LLY 35.62, -0.39). As has been the case since the start of earnings season one week ago, strong announcements didn't necessarily translate to gains, especially in the face of broad market selling interest.

At the depths of this session's slide, the Dow was down more than 200 points and the S&P 500 was down more than 20 points so that it traded below the 1300 line at 1295.

Stocks gradually worked their way higher in afternoon trade. There wasn't a single sector that made its way back to the flat line, but tech stocks and consumer staples stocks did the best job of limiting losses. Each sector finished with a loss of 0.7%. Tech's relative strength came even though only three stocks in the sector -- Akamai Tech (AKAM 39.73, +1.64), Apple (AAPL 331.85, +4.39), and Qualcomm (QCOM 53.29, +0.15) -- managed to make gains. Meanwhile, grocers propped up consumer staples stocks after Supervalu (SVU 10.67, +0.05) issued upside guidance.

News of the change to the U.S. debt outlook caused knee-jerk selling among Treasuries this morning, but their ability to rebound to solid gains suggested that the news was largely priced in.

The dollar was also dropped in morning trade, but it quickly reclaimed gains and then some. In turn, the Dollar Index climbed to a 0.9% gain. Most of the advance came against the euro, which was quoted 1.3% lower at $1.423 as of the close of today's trade.

Despite the dollar's advance, precious metals were able to put together strong performances amid this session's volatility. Gold settled with a 0.5% gain at $1492.90 per ounce after it set a record high of $1498.60 per ounce. Silver settled 0.9% higher at $42.98 per ounce after it hit $43.56 per ounce, which is its highest level in more than 30 years.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Consumer Staples (-0.7%), Tech (-0.7%), Utilities (-0.9%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.9%), Health Care (-1.2%), Telecom (-1.3%), Materials (-1.3%), Industrials (-1.3%), Financials (-1.4%), Energy (-1.5%)DJ30 -140.24 NASDAQ -29.27 NQ100 -0.7% R2K -1.6% SP400 -1.7% SP500 -14.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 531/1.80 bln/2089 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 577/1.04 bln/2445

3:30 pm : Commodities finished the session mixed today, with gains (+2.2%) leading gainers and energy (-1.6%) leading all decliners.

Risk aversion, following S&P's outlook revision on the US earlier this morning, caused May crude oil to drop 2.3% to close at $107.12 per barrel. Crude oil spent most of the session chopping around near its lows. May natural gas shed 1.7% to close at $4.13 per MMBtu.

The outlook revision sent the precious metals higher today, in a flight to safety. June gold finished higher by 0.5% to $1492.90 per ounce, while May silver ended up 0.9% to $42.98 per ounce. Gold approached $1500, but came up just shy after notching highs at $1498.60, a fresh all-time high. Silver rallied to a new ~31 yr high at $43.56. DJ30 -143.27 NASDAQ -30.64 SP500 -14.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 455/1.4 bln/2142 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 500/748.4 mln/2492

3:00 pm : After taking a bit of a breather, the stock market has extended its upturn so that it is now at its best level of the day. Even though the effort is reducing the severity of today's sell-off, which was looking like it would be the stock market's worst single day drop in a month when stocks were at their session low, each major equity average is still down by more than 1%.

Only an hour remains in today's trade. Participants can look forward to results from Texas Instruments (TXN 34.93, -0.06) after the close. Goldman Sachs (GS 153.94, -1.19) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 60.60, +0.04) report tomorrow morning. DJ30 -151.14 NASDAQ -33.04 SP500 -14.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 474 /1.30 bln/2126 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 494/655 mln/2478

2:30 pm : The stock market's recent upturn has stalled, but tha hasn't invited any kind of renewed selling effort. Rather, stocks continue to rest near their afternoon highs.

Consumer staples stocks are in the best shape today -- the group's 0.7% loss is the least severe of any major sector. Although the consumer staples sector is down markedly, its relative strength is consistent with the recent sessions, during which the sector has frequently outperformed the broader market. Supervalu (SVU 10.66, +0.04) and Safeway (SWY 24.98, +0.14) are primary leaders in the consumer staple space today, thanks to upside guidance from Supervalu. DJ30 -177.40 NASDAQ -40.89 SP500 -18.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 431/1.21 bln/2162 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 425/610 mln/2545

2:00 pm : Buyers have started to show some signs of life. Their timid entry into early afternoon action has taken the stock market out of its recent trading range to its best level since the early going. The market still has a long way to go before it can fully offset today's decline, though.

The stock market's recent upturn comes after Treasuries recently recorded a session high. Buying in Treasuries has taken the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note down to a multi-week low of 3.37%. The one-month low for the yield is just below 3.26%; it was set on March 18.DJ30 -182.43 NASDAQ -40.75 SP500 -18.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 386/1.11 bln/2186 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 370/565 mln/2600

1:30 pm : Steady trade has left the stock market to continue its sideways drift, which has kept it in a relatively narrow trading range for the past couple of hours.

This session's sell-off has come amid healthy volume. In fact, more than a half billion shares have already been traded on the NYSE. What's more, the pick up in participation comes after many trading activity had seen a surge with the expiration of monthly options this past Friday. Declining volume currently outnumbers advancing share volume by 4-to-1. DJ30 -213.35 NASDAQ -51.45 SP500 -21.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 382/1.03 bln/2190 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 351/530 mln/2610

1:05 pm : Weakness abroad set the stage for sellers this morning. Their case was bolstered by news that analysts at S&P slapped a negative outlook on U.S. debt ratings. Stocks have since descended to their lowest level in weeks.

Although officials tried to shoot down speculation about debt restructuring in Greece, recognition of such a possibility prompted questions about whether a restructuring would lead to similar action in Ireland and Portugal, then thoughts of the implications for the overall eurozone. Such concerns took their toll on the euro.

The euro won some temporary support with news that the AAA rating of the U.S. was affirmed, but its outlook was deemed negative by analysts at S&P. That announcement was made shortly before the open of trade and positioned stocks for a sharply lower start.

Selling pressure slowed only momentarily as the S&P 500 came near the 1300 line, but it quickly traded down through that area before later setting a session low at 1295.

Few stocks have been unable to escape this session's concerted selling effort. Financial plays Citigroup (C 4.47, +0.05) and M&T Bank (MTB 87.31, +1.96) have both been able to put together gains on the back of better-than-expected earnings reports. An upside earnings surprise from oil services outfit Halliburton (HAL 47.60, +0.78) has also moved higher after overcoming some early volatility, but Eli Lilly (LLY 35.67, -0.34) has failed to find any support after the pharmaceutical play exceeded what Wall Street had forecasted for its bottom line.

Both the dollar and Treasuries were undercut by news of the S&P revision to the U.S. debt rating outlook, but they have since rebounded. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is back at 3.40% and the Dollar Index is up 0.9%.

Volatility today has helped precious metals shine in the face of a stronger dollar. Gold was last quoted with a 0.6% gain at $1494 per ounce. Silver was last priced with a 0.8% gain at $42.90 per ounce. Both are down from morning highs, however. DJ30 -215.09 NASDAQ -49.73 SP500 -21.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 376/965 mln/2185 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 349/500 mln/2602

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 has spent the past two hours drifting along in a four-point range. Although that range would sometimes make for a fair range of movement, today the span appears relatively tight because of the scope of this morning's opening drop, which took the S&P 500 down about 20 points in little more than five minutes.

The dramatic drop at the open of trade was largely the culmination of weak action in Europe and news that analysts at S&P assigned a negative outlook on the AAA rating of the U.S. The latter headline also undercut Treasuries, but they have managed to rebound so that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is back at 3.40%. DJ30 -211.08 NASDAQ +49.59 SP500 -20.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 360/895 mln/2170 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 339/460 mln/2597

12:00 pm : Although stocks remain deeply into the red, pressure has eased a bit in the last 30 minutes. That has helped the stock market gradually ease up from its session low.

Today's decline has stoked volatility, such that the Volatility Index, often euphemistically dubbed the Fear Gauge, is up 18%. At its session high, the VIX was above its 50-day average for the first time in a little more than two weeks. DJ30 -202.96 NASDAQ -48.93 SP500 -20.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 344/800 mln/2159 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 335/417 mln/2594

11:30 am : The overall tone of trade has been negative since the opening bell, but a handful of stocks have managed to tick higher. Akamai Technologies (AKAM 39.37, +1.28) is among them; the stock's 3% surge comes even though there has been now headline or other catalyst to account for the move. Meanwhile, financial plays Citigroup (C 4.46, +0.04) and M&T Bank (MTB 87.15, +1.80) are up after the pair posted upside earnings surprises for the latest quarter.DJ30 -213.05 NASDAQ -50.84 SP500 -20.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 313/685 mln/2166 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 305/359 mln/2596

11:00 am : The S&P 500 pushed through the 1300 line after only a brief pause above it. It attempted to stage a bit of a bounce, but failed to sustain the move so that stocks are now sitting at back at session lows.

Although weakness is widespread, energy stocks have suffered the worst losses this session. In turn, the sector is down 2.3%. Integrated plays like Chevron (CVX 103.73, -2.51) and ConocoPhillips (COP 77.46, -1.66) are primary sources of weakness, but even Halliburton (HAL 46.42, -0.40) is down nearly 1% after the company announced an upside earnings surprise for the latest quarter.DJ30 -209.94 NASDAQ -50.74 SP500 -20.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 295/565 mln/2147 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 307/298 mln/2578

10:35 am : The dollar index has erased all of its losses in recent trade, which has weighed on commodities. While the commodities complex is getting hit, some commodities with the most exposure to China are seeing, or may see, additional pressure after China raised banks' reserve requirements for the fourth time this year. These commodities include soybeans (-0.6%), copper (-1.1%) and crude oil (-2.4%).

Crude oil has been in the red all session. In recent activity, crude hit new session lows of $106.74/barrel and is currently down 2.4% at $107.06/barrel.

Natural gas was slightly lower overnight and in the early morning session. At 8:00am ET, the energy component gained steam and rallied into positive territory. However, this was short-lived as natural gas erased all of its gains and fell to new session lows of $4.12/MMBtu. Nat gas is now 1.4% lower at $4.14/MMBtu.

Precious metals have been volatile as well this morning. Gold and silver both just pulled back sharply, falling back into negative territory. In current action, gold is 0.1% lower at $1484.70/ounce, while silver is down 0.7% at $42.26/ounce.DJ30 -192.69 NASDAQ -47.60 SP500 -18.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 305/407.0 mln/2102 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 272/224.3 mln/2565

10:00 am : After stabilizing for a few minutes, stocks have started to slide lower. The descent has the S&P500 sitting just above the psychologically significant 1300 line. The stock market hasn't been below that point in more than three weeks.

Treasuries have failed to attract much support, even though stocks have been shunned. The weakness surrounding Treasuries comes in the wake of news that analysts at S&P assigned a negative outlook to the AAA rating of the U.S.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Energy (-2.0%), Materials (-1.9%), Industrials (-1.9%), Tech (-1.8%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.8%), Financials (-1.5%), Telecom (-1.0%), Consumer Staples (-0.9%), Utilities (-0.7%)DJ30 -213.34 NASDAQ -50.10 SP500 -19.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 274/185 mln/2035 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 260/120 mln/2478

09:45 am : A concerted selling effort has taken stocks down sharply in the first few minutes of trade. The effort has been broad based, but financials are suffering from some of the hardest hits as they trade with a 1.9% loss.

Despite weakness in the financial sector, Citigroup (C 4.48, +0.06) is still up more than 1% this morning. The stock's resilience comes in the wake of an upside earnings surprise. DJ30 -170.78 NASDAQ -38.06 SP500 -17.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 247/50 mln/1951 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 222/50 mln/1894

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -13.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -23.10. News that analysts at S&P have issued a negative outlook on U.S. ratings, which were affirmed at AAA status, has sent stock futures another leg lower. Stock futures had already been imbued by weakness in Europe, where pessimism has been spurred by speculation of a debt restructuring in Greece. Concern about the financial health of countries in the eurozone contingent had put pressure on the euro, but news of the outlook change for U.S. debt has helped the euro cut its loss against the greenback so that the euro is now down 0.6% at $1.43. Meanwhile, precious metals have moved higher so that gold is now out of the red to a 0.5% gain at $1494 per ounce and silver is up 1.4% to more than $43 per ounce. Oil prices are still down 1.7% to just below $108 per barrel. Corporate news has been of secondary concern. In turn, upside earnings surprises from Citigroup (C), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Halliburton (HAL) have been shrugged off by permarket participants.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -22.90. A barrage of selling pressure has knocked stock futures a leg lower. The action comes in response to news that analysts at S&P have affirmed the ratings on the U.S., but issued a negative outlook. The news has caused the greenback to give up some of its gain against the euro, which is now down 0.6% at $1.43.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.30. Europe's major bourses are presently under stiff pressure. The backslide comes amid speculation about a possible debt restructuring by Greece, although officials from the country have refuted those reports. Naturally, some shifted their suspicion toward Portugal and Ireland. Several of Irelands financial institutions, including Allied Irish Bank (AIB) and Bank of Ireland (IRE), were downgraded by analysts at Moody's after the rating firm revised downward the country's debt rating last week. Ireland's ISEQ is currently off by 0.7%. Spain's IBEX has sunk to a 1.5% loss. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX is down 1.1%. France's CAC is off by 1.5%. Britain's FTSE is off by 1.0%. Amid concerns about the finances of countries in the eurozone contingent, the euro is down a sharp 0.9% against the dollar. The euro was last quoted at $1.43.

Overnight action in Asia concluded with Japan's Nikkei down 0.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 0.7%, and China's Shanghai Composite up 0.2%. Banks in China and Hong Kong encountered some of the most pressure after traders digested news that the Peoples Bank of China tacked on another 50 basis points to their reserve requirement ratio. The hike came after data last week showed rapid growth and a sharp increase in inflation.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.30. Stock futures are down this morning. Their retreat comes as Europe's major bourses move lower in response to rekindled concerns about sovereign debt, namely that of Greece. Speculation about a possible restructuring of the country's debt has caused spreads on that debt to widen. Many of Asia's major averages settled lower overnight, although China's Shanghai Composite managed to eke out a narrow gain after traders there shrugged off news that the Peoples Bank of China added another 50 basis points to the reserve requirement ratio following the GDP and inflationary readings that were reported late last week. On the earnings front, Citigroup (C) just reported a slim upside earnings surprise. Halliburton (HAL) and Eli Lilly (LLY) also exceeded what Wall Street had expected for earnings. The latest Housing Market Index is the only piece of data on today's economic calendar. It is due at 10:00 AM ET.

06:26 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.40.

06:26 am : Nikkei...9556.65...-34.90...-0.40%. Hang Seng...23830.31...-177.80...-0.70%.

06:26 am : FTSE...5946.82...-49.20...-0.80%. DAX...7114.87...-63.30...-0.90%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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