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 Post subject: April 13th Wednesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +4.90
PostPosted: Fri Apr 15, 2011 8:42 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Quote:
It's official, all my tax work is done for both the U.S. and Canada...lets party. Seriously, tax season is a pain in the butt which is why I have a tax professional do my taxes considering I'm a trader, I have a commercial trading business and a commercial photography business. Anyways, I did some trades today but had a few key missed trade opportunities while finishing up my tax work. Best trade of the day was my first trade of the day as a Short position around 1001am est but I had poor trade management on my remainder 3 contracts of a 6 contract position. If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: +4.90 points or $490.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=88&t=810.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=137&t=1015

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Edge Higher After Obama Speech
Attachment:
041311-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png
041311-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png [ 520.38 KiB | Viewed 263 times ]

click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Hibah Yousuf, staff reporter
April 13, 2011: 4:27 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks ended higher Wednesday, thanks to a late-afternoon turnaround following President Obama's speech unveiling his plan to cut the U.S. budget deficit by $4 trillion over 12 years.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 7 points, or 0.1%; the S&P 500 (SPX) added less than 1 point; and the Nasdaq (COMP) gained 17 points, or 0.6%.

Despite a strong open -- thanks to better-than-expected earnings and revenue from JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) -- stocks spent the early part of Wednesday's session in the red.

The losses came after JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that mortgage-related losses would continue for some time, and warned that investors should not expect additional dividend increases beyond the 25 cents set for this quarter. Shares of the bank slid almost 1%. JPMorgan is the first major bank to report first-quarter results.

But the market again reversed course in the afternoon after Obama laid down a series of spending and deficit targets, adding that he wants $3 in spending cuts for every $1 in additional tax revenue.

"Investors wanted to see some movement toward fiscal responsibility, but just not too much and not too soon, and that's exactly what the president gave them," said Doug Roberts, chief market strategist at Channel Capital Research.

Roberts added that the market has been supported by the government's stimulative policies, including the Federal Reserve's Treasury purchases and Congress' decision last December to extend the Bush-era tax cuts.

"Investors are relieved to hear that Obama's plan to reduce the deficit is gradual, not imminent," Roberts said. "The government's deficit has been taking painkillers for years now, and it's finally about to get some surgery. But nobody's amputating anything."

U.S. stocks finished lower Tuesday, with all three major indexes losing about 1%, as a 3% drop in oil prices sparked a sell-off in energy stocks, and Alcoa's sales disappointment weighed down the Dow.

* Video - JPMorgan's headwinds

Economy: Economists are continuing to scan the latest data for the domino effect of rising prices on other areas of the economy.

Before the market opened, the government reported retail sales rose 0.4% in March. The number was slightly below forecasts. Stripping out gas, retail sales were only up 0.1% for the month.

"Clearly, higher commodity prices are factoring into higher retail sales," said Aichi Amemiya, economist with Nomura Securities.

Retail sales for the prior two months were revised significantly higher, causing Nomura to raise its daily revised estimates for first-quarter growth to 2.3%, from 2.1% before.

A separate government report showed that business inventories rose 0.5% in February, slightly below forecasts.

* Video - The budget wolf is at the door

Companies: Shares of Tyco International (TYC) fell 0.6%, after French company Schneider Electric denied reports that it is trying to buy the Swiss manufacturing conglomerate for $30 billion.

World markets: European stocks ended higher. Britain's FTSE 100 and France's CAC 40 rose 0.8%, while the DAX in Germany added 1.1%.

Asian markets ended higher. The Shanghai Composite rose just under 1%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong added 0.7% and Japan's Nikkei rose 0.9%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro and the British pound, but rose against the Japanese yen.

Oil for May delivery rose 86 cents to settle at $107.11 a barrel.

Gold futures for June delivery increased $2.00 to settle at $1,455.60 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 3.47% from 3.50% late Tuesday. To top of page

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Broad buying in the early going gave stocks an opening gain, but the market's failure to extend the move beyond near-term resistance brought sellers back into the fold. Stocks eventually battled back for a mixed finish, though.

Strong gains among the major foreign market averages established a positive tone to early trade. Banking bellwether JPMorgan Chase (JPM 46.25, -0.39) further bolstered the positive bias by announcing better-than-expected quarterly results for both its top and bottom line.

Early enthusiasm began to fade as the S&P 500 struggled in the face of resistance in the 1321 to 1322 area. The struggle tempted sellers, whose efforts threatened to give the stock market its fifth straight loss.

The Nasdaq managed to remain out of the red for the entire session. Its relative strength stemmed from an enviable performance by tech stocks. Tech stocks, which represent the largest sector by market weight, settled the session with a 0.7% gain. The sector's relative size and strength inevitably helped lift the broader market to the neutral line for a flat finish.

Energy stocks suffered a 3% drop yesterday, but the sector managed to muster a 0.3% gain today. Part of that is owed to a 0.8% gain by crude oil prices to $107.11 per barrel in the face of a greater-than-expected weekly inventory build of 1.63 million barrels.

Financials were the worst performers overall. Their 0.8% drop made for a discouraging follow-up to a failed rally attempt in the prior session. The sector now sits at a three-week low.

Treasuries started the session in the red, but staged a rebound that helped extend recent gains. The effort was sustained in the wake of the latest 10-year auction, which drew a bid-to-cover of 3.13, dollar demand of $65.7 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 42.4%.

Moderate support for the greenback helped the Dollar Index inch its way up from the 52-week low that it set yesterday. The move was mostly owed to weakness in the euro.

Participants didn't show much of a reaction to President Obama's plan to slash the federal deficit by $4 trillion in 12 years or less. Economic data also had little impact on trade.

Retail sales for March increased by 0.4% while sales less autos increased by 0.8%. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for respective increases of 0.5% and 0.7%. Both total sales and sales less autos for the prior month were revised upward to reflect increases of 1.1%.

The Fed's latest Beige Book didn't contain any kind of surprise. Generally, it indicated that economic activity continued to improve since the last report.

Advancing Sectors: Tech (+0.7%), Energy (+0.3%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.3%), Utilities (+0.3%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Health Care (-0.1%), Industrials (-0.2%), Telecom (-0.3%), Materials (-0.6%), Financials (-0.8%)DJ30 +7.41 NASDAQ +16.73 NQ100 +0.8% R2K +0.2% SP400 +0.3% SP500 +0.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1317/1.75 bln/1251 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1535/900 mln/1374

3:30 pm : Commodities finished the session mixed, with energy (+1.1%) leading advancing sectors and industrials (-2.4%) leading decliners.

May crude oil finished higher by 0.8% to $107.11 per barrel, ending its recent two session sell off that saw prices drop by over 6.5 points. Heading into afternoon trade, crude oil did sell off into negative territory where it notched lows at $105.31. It rallied over 2 points off those lows heading into the close to finish with modest gains on the session. May natural gas finished higher by 0.9% to $4.14 per MMBtu.

It was a quiet session for the precious metals (+0.7%), which spent most of the session pulling back from their morning highs. June gold finished up 0.1% to $1455.60 per ounce, while May silver closed higher by 0.4% to $40.24 per ounce. DJ30 +24.44 NASDAQ +18.89 SP500 +2.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1393/1.4 bln/1172 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1457/652.7 mln/1508

3:00 pm : Stocks are at afternoon highs as they enter the final hour of trade. Tomorrow's action could be interesting, given the lack of potential corporate catalysts on the earnings calendar. Only a handful of companies are scheduled to report earnings between today's close and tomorrow's open -- none is likely to move the market.

However, tomorrow night brings the latest from Google (GOOG 576.01, +5.40), which is up an impressive 1% in the face of mixed broad market trade. The stock set a weekly low in yesterday's trade. DJ30 +14.11 NASDAQ +16.86 SP500 +1.32 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1207/1324 NYSE Adv/Dec 1399/1478

2:30 pm : The major equity averages have made a sudden move up to afternoon highs. Although the Nasdaq now trades with a relatively solid gain, both the Dow and the S&P 500 are stuck near the neutral line.

The Fed's latest Beige Book was released at the top of the hour. Generally, it indicated that economic activity continued to improve since the last report. Many Federal Reserve Districts said that improvements were only moderate, but most reported widespread gains across the various sectors. DJ30 +0.71 NASDAQ +10.69 SP500 -0.41 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1111/1413 NYSE Adv/Dec 1241/1599

2:00 pm : Stocks are resting only modestly above their session lows. No distinguishable reaction has been seen to comments from President Obama regarding treatment of the federal deficit. Obama's speech is centered around reducing the deficit by $4 trillion in 12 years or less.

Outside of equities, the Dollar Index is near its session high, although its gain currently stands at less than 0.2%. Most of that move is owed to the greenback's advance against both the yen and the euro. The yen was last quoted with a 0.2% loss at 83.82 yen per dollar while the euro is down almost 0.3% to about $1.444.

Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note continues to sit on a slight gain.

Excerpts from the Fed's latest Beige Book, a collection of regional anecdotal economic data, are starting to hit newswires. DJ30 -11.28 NASDAQ +5.32 SP500 -2.39 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1120/1402 NYSE Adv/Dec 1243/1566

1:30 pm : Treasuries have eased back from their session highs, but they continue to sport slight gains amid the stock market's downturn.

The 10-year auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.13, dollar demand of $65.7 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 42.4%. The indirect bid accounted for just $27.9 billion of the total dollar demand -- the third lowest amount in 12 months. For comparison, the prior auction was met with a bid-to-cover of 3.32, dollar demand of $69.7 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 53.0%. An average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.09, dollar demand of $68.0 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 53.4%. DJ30 -10.30 NASDAQ +6.52 SP500 -1.86 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1159/1342 NYSE Adv/Dec 1297/1509

1:00 pm : Stocks opened today's trade with solid gains, but the tone of trade has since deteriorated.

Strong gains abroad and a pleasing quarterly report from banking bellwether JPMorgan Chase (JPM 46.29, -0.35) helped stocks push higher in early trade. However, shares of banks have buckled under pressure from sellers. Weakness among bank stocks has taken the financial sector down to a 0.8% loss, which comes after the sector failed to sustain a rally in the prior session and then logg a 0.4% loss.

Part of this session's change in sentiment stems from the failure of the S&P 500 to extend its opening gains through near-term resistance in the 1321-1322 zone.

The Nasdaq had displayed an outsized gain in early trade, but it too has been imbued by broader market weakness. Still, it has managed to remain out of the red with help from tech stocks, which are collectively up 0.4% at the moment.

Participants have shrugged off retail sales figures for March. Overall sales increased by a smaller-than-expected 0.4%, but sales less autos increased a better-than-expected 0.8%. Both total sales and sales less autos for the prior month were revised upward to reflect increases of 1.1%. Shares of retailers have been unable to resist selling efforts; they are down 0.5%, according to the SPDR Retail ETF (XRT 51.40, -0.26).

Initial strength among stocks put pressure on Treasuries, but they have since rebounded to extend their prior session rally so that its yield remains near its weekly low. Results from the latest Treasury auction are imminent.

As a reminder, the Fed's Beige Book will be released at 2:00 PM ET.DJ30 -7.08 NASDAQ +8.09 SP500 -1.57 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1141/1337 NYSE Adv/Dec 1193/1583

12:30 pm : The stock market's recent downturn has stabilized, leaving both the Dow and S&P 500 to trade with narrow losses. Although their declines for the day are relatively limited, the current tone of trade contrasts sharply with the positive tone that had been exhibited in the early going. There hasn't been any kind of negative news item or clear catalyst for sellers to step in, but the broad market did fail in the face of near-term resistance near the 1321-1322 zone this morning.DJ30 -9.24 NASDAQ +10.70 SP500 -1.50 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1392/1065 NYSE Adv/Dec 1513/1209

12:00 pm : Stocks have extended their recent retreat. The downturn has actually taken the Dow and S&P 500 into negative territory. Although the Nasdaq isn't quite there yet, it is at a session low.

Amid the stock market's downturn, Treasuries have pared losses. The move has taken the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note back below 3.50%. Results from an auction of 10-year Notes will be released at 1:00 PM ET. DJ30 -12.38 NASDAQ +8.31 SP500 -2.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1387/725 mln/1048 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1459/360 mln/1186

11:30 am : Sellers have redoubled their efforts, causing stocks to reverse their recent rebound. Moreover, the effort has been relatively agressive. In turn, the Dow and S&P 500 are now back near session lows.

Financials have been a drag on trade today. The sector had attempted to stage an impressive rally yesterday, but broad market weakness ultimately undercut the sector so that it settled with a loss. The pushback against the sector has continued into today's trade, such that the sector is down another 0.4%.

Part of the financial sector's downturn is owed to weakness among large-cap bank stocks. The group had been looking up in the early going as participants initially cheered strong results from JPMorgan Chase (JPM 46.37, -0.27). Traders have since turned on the group. DJ30 +26.86 NASDAQ +19.05 SP500 +1.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1507/615 mln/913 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1567/300 mln/933

11:00 am : Stocks have rebounded from their morning retreat. Although the Dow and S&P 500 aren't quite back to their opening levels, the Nasdaq Composite has climbed to its best level of the day.

Tech continues to underpin the Nasdaq's relative strength. The sector is up 1.0% amid leadership from the likes of computer and computer peripheral plays like Dell (DELL 15.15, +0.45). Although it is not a member of the Nasdaq, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 41.53, +0.45) is also a strong performer. DJ30 +48.39 NASDAQ +25.56 SP500 +5.00 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1540/815 NYSE Adv/Dec 1109/604

10:35 am : The dollar index has moved back near the unchanged line, adding some selling pressure on select commodities. Precious metals and crude have been trading modestly higher all morning.

May crude oil sank to today's low of $105.37/barrel overnight, but rebounded back into positive territory a few hours later. Ahead of today's inventory data, crude was around $106.67. Following the data, which showed a build of 1627K versus consensus of 1000K, crude ticked higher and is now up 0.4% at $106.66.

May natural gas gained steam approx. 30 minutes after pit trade began, pushing the energy component into positive territory and new session highs. Currently, nat gas is trading 1.% higher at $4.16/MMBtu.

Precious metals have been higher all morning. June gold is up 0.4% at $1459.40/oz, while May silver is 0.9% higher at $40.44/oz. Overnight, grains recovered some of yesterday's sharp loss. Corn, wheat and soybeans gained between 0.5%-1.0%.DJ30 +35.34 NASDAQ +18.68 SP500 +3.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 248.2/348.7/90.2 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 450.0/1941.0/1160.0

10:00 am : Stocks have extended their slide from opening levels, but the three major equity averages remain in positive territory.

The latest business inventory figures have been released to little fanfare. Inventories for February increased by 0.5%, but that is less than the 0.8% increase that had been widely expected among economists polled by Briefing.com. Inventories for the prior month were revised upward to reflect a 1.0% increase.

Advancing Sectors: Utilities (+0.6%), Tech (+0.6%), Energy (+0.5%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.3%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%)
Unchanged: Health Care, Telecom, Industrials
Declining Sectors: Materials (-0.1%), Financials (-0.2%)DJ30 +33.52 NASDAQ +16.77 SP500 +3.19

09:45 am : Both the Dow and the S&P 500 have slipped from their opening levels, but the Nasdaq is trying to hold firm near the top end of its early morning trading range. Tech stocks, collectively up 0.7%, are helping to support the Nasdaq.

Although they are usually considered one of the more stodgy sectors, utilities are outperforming this morning. The sector has already run ahead to a 0.9% gain. Duke Energy (DUK 18.19, +0.20) and American Electric (AEP 34.98, +0.39) are primary leaders in the utilities space. DJ30 +46.77 NASDAQ +18.30 SP500 +4.51

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.00. A strong earnings report from finance and banking bellwether JPMorgan Chase (JPM) has combined with the strong gains of major overseas markets to spur stock futures higher. A solid retail sales report for March and upward revisions to figures for February have also helped support a positive tone to premarket trade. Several potential catalysts remain on today's calendar. Among the more widely watched items, weekly oil inventory data are due at 10:00 AM ET. Oil prices are currently up a rather sharp 0.8% to $107.10 per barrel after falling sharply in each of the past two sessions. Results from an auction of 10-year Notes are due at 1:00 PM ET. The benchmark 10-year Note rallied yesterday so that its yield dropped below 3.50% after it had been near 3.60% earlier in the week. The Note has given back some of its prior session gain this morning. A collection of regionally-specific anecdotal economic data makes up the Fed's Beige Book, which will be released at 2:00 PM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.80. In stark contrast to the prior session, Europe's major bourses are all up with strong gains. That has the EuroStoxx 50 up 1.0%. Germany currently boasts some of the best gains in the continent; its DAX is up 1.3%. That has helped the German bourse undo yesterday's loss. In its latest economic report, Germany's wholesale prices increased by 1.3% in March after a 1.4% increase in the prior month. France reported that its European Union Harmonized CPI increased by 0.9% in March after a 0.5% increase in February. The country's CAC is currently up 1.2% amid broad buying interest. Of the 40 stocks that make up the CAC, only Technip SA is in the red, but Alcatel Lucent (ALU) is a top performer following an upgrade by analysts at Morgan Stanley. Britain's FTSE presently sports a 1.3% gain. The latest dose of data out of the United Kingdom showed that the ILO Unemployment rate for March eased down to 7.8% from 8.0% in February. Broader eurozone data indicated that industrial production for February increased by 0.4% after a 0.2% increase in the prior month.

Japan's Nikkei advanced 0.9% on the back of broad-based buying interest. Automakers showed considerable strength, although Toyota (TM) disclosed its decision to suspend production in late April and early May at five European plants in order to manage parts supply. A gain of more than 10% made Tokyo Electronic Power a top performer, but the stock's surge still didn't fully offset its prior session loss. Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 0.7%. Tencent Holdings snapped a two-session slide with a 3% rally. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite climbed 1.0% after it had managed to limit its prior session loss to only a fractional move lower.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.30. Stock futures continue to sport strong gains in the wake of today's first dose of data. Retail sales for March increased by 0.4%, but that wasn't quite as strong as the 0.5% increase that had been broadly expected among economists polled by Briefing.com. Retail sales for the prior month were revised slightly higher to reflect an increase of 1.1%. Excluding autos, retail sales for March increased by 0.8%, which is actually greater than the 0.7% increase that had been expected, on average, among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Sales less autos for the prior month were also revised higher to reflect a 1.1% increase. Still to come today, monthly business inventories (10:00 AM ET), weekly crude oil inventories (10:30 AM ET), Treasury auction results (1:00 PM ET), and the latest Beige Book from the Fed (2:00 PM ET).

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.50. Better-than-expected results on both the top and bottom line by JPMorgan Chase (JPM) have helped shares of the diversified financial services giant and Dow component up about 1% ahead of the open. The company also reaffirmed its plan to raise its dividend and the authorization of a $15 billion multi-year share repurchase plan. The strength of the company's latest quarterly report has also helped bring about a broader bid, such that stock futures suggest an opening rebound from the prior session's slide, which was the stock market's worst performance in about a month. The tone of early trade has been further bolstered by strong gains abroad. Today's calendar features monthly retail sales figures, which are due at the bottom of the hour. They are followed by business inventory figures at 10:00 AM ET. Weekly oil inventory data are due at 10:30 AM ET. Results from an auction of 10-year Notes will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. The Fed's Beige Book follows at 2:00 PM ET.

06:27 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.80.

06:27 am : Nikkei...9641.18...+85.90...+0.90%. Hang Seng...24135.03...+158.70...+0.70%.

06:27 am : FTSE...6015.63...+51.20...+0.90%. DAX...7160.93...+58.00...+0.80%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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