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 Post subject: April 12th Tues 2011 Emini TF (No Trades Personal Day Off)
PostPosted: Fri Apr 15, 2011 8:19 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Quote:
I decided to take the entire day off from trading instead of just the p.m. trading session due to last minute tax info my tax accountant needed and TSL website updates. If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: +0.00 points or $0.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=88&t=809.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=137&t=1015

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Dragged Down By Oil and Alcoa
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Hibah Yousuf, staff reporter
April 12, 2011: 4:40 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks finished lower Tuesday, with all three major indexes losing about 1%, as a 3% drop in oil prices sparked a sell-off in energy stocks and Alcoa's sales disappointment weighed down the Dow.

Investors also were on edge after Japanese officials raised the threat level at the Fukushima nuclear plant to the same as the 1986 incident at Chernobyl, in what was then the Soviet Union.

"Some people wanted to forget the nuclear threat in Japan, but it popped back up and worsened overnight," said Joe Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading. "There are a lot of headwinds in the market, and on a day like today, investors are waking up and taking notice of all of them."

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) dropped 118 points, or 1%, dragged down by a 6% drop in Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500)'s stock. The aluminum giant reported disappointing sales late Monday as it kicked off the first-quarter earnings season.

"[Investors] want to see better revenues, margins and are interested in company guidance," said Saluzzi. Alcoa didn't deliver, worrying investors about how rising input and commodity prices will affect other corporate earnings.

Energy companies also added pressure on the market, as oil prices fell more than 3% to $106.25 a barrel. The slide in crude came after a Goldman Sachs forecast for a $20-a-barrel drop in crude prices this spring. Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) were big laggards on the Dow.

Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Nabors Industries (NBR), Denbury Resources (DNR), Range Resources (RRC) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV, Fortune 500) pressured the S&P 500 (SPX), which slipped 10 points, or 0.8%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost 27 points, or 1%, as chipmakers such as Broadcom (BRCM, Fortune 500) and Micron Technology (MU, Fortune 500) lost ground amid global growth concerns.

On Monday, U.S. stocks gave up an early advance and closed little changed, as investors look toward corporate reports due throughout the week.

Companies: Cisco Systems announced that it was taking a restructuring charge of $300 million, as it prepared to reduce its staff by 550 workers. Cisco (CSCO, Fortune 500) shares fell 0.2%.
2011 budget cuts revealed

Budget battles: Early Tuesday, lawmakers finally revealed the specific spending cuts that make up the budget plan signed last week.

The 2011 budget cuts will slash $40 billion, cutting back on a wide range of programs and services including high-speed rail, emergency first responders and the National Endowment for the Arts.

The Treasury Department said the federal deficit increased to $188.2 billion in March. The monthly shortfall was just shy of the $189 billion forecast by economists.

* Video - The looming debt ceiling crisis

Economy: The Commerce Department released data on the U.S. trade balance for February, showing that the deficit narrowed to $45.8 billion. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected the report to show the trade deficit narrowed slightly to $45.7 billion, down from a revised $47 billion in January.

On Sunday, China reported a small surplus for March, but revealed a more than $1 billion trade deficit for the first quarter. The U.S. data lags a month behind the Chinese report.

World markets: Asian markets sold off after the Japanese government bumped up the nuclear threat to a level on par with the Chernobyl disaster in 1986.

The Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 1.3% and Japan's Nikkei tumbled 1.7%. The Shanghai Composite edged 0.1% lower.

European stocks fell Tuesday. Britain's FTSE 100, the DAX in Germany and France's CAC 40 all slid about 1.5%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the British pound, but fell against the euro and the Japanese yen.

Gold futures for June delivery fell $14.50 to settle at $1,453.60 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 3.50% from 3.57% late Monday.

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Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : For the first time in quite a while buyers failed to provide near-term support in the face of selling pressure. That left the S&P 500 to suffer its worst single-session slide in almost a month and close below its 50-day moving average for the first time in three weeks.

The tone of trade was initially weakened by a concerted selling effort among the major foreign averages, most of which suffered losses of at least 1%. Japan's Nikkei was one of the worst performers; it tumbled 1.7% following news that officials have increased Japan's nuclear crisis rating to the maximum level of 7.

Dow component Alcoa (AA 16.70, -1.07) gave market participants their first glimpse into earnings season, but apparently they didn't like the view. Even though Alcoa announced its fourth consecutive upside earnings surprise, a light revenue figure suggested softer demand than what Wall Street had wanted. Shares of AA recouped some of their losses, but still settled about 6% lower for one of their worst losses of the past year.

In contrast to the action of recent weeks, market participants refused to provide support to the broad market's early drop. Not even another drop in oil prices could stir support for stocks. Oil prices closed pit trade with a 3.3% loss at $106.25 per barrel. Selling against oil accelerated with news that analysts at Goldman Sachs predict that oil prices will see a substantial pullback in coming months. Just yesterday morning oil prices were above $113 per barrel to mark their highest level in more than two years.

The combination of sharply lower oil prices and broad market weakness led energy stocks to collectively lose 3.0%, which was the sector's worst single-session slide in one month.

Financials attracted buyers in the face of widespread weakness before they were backed down in the final hour of trade. The sector actually turned a loss of about 1% into a fractional gain, but settled with a 0.4% loss.

Treasuries were spurred higher amid the stock market's slide. Buying interest in that space was supported by a solid auction of 3-year Notes. The auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.25, dollar demand of $104.0 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 33.7%.

The dollar's doldrums continued today. In turn, the euro set a new one-year high of about $1.45. It was quoted with a 0.4% gain just below that level at session's end.

Even though action today was more exciting than it has been in recent weeks, participation remains at unimpressive levels. More specifically, share volume on the NYSE failed to break 1 billion again.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Staples (+0.3%)
Declining Sectors: Health Care (-0.1%), Utilities (-0.2%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.2%), Financials (-0.4%), Telecom (-0.6%), Industrials (-0.8%), Tech (-0.9%), Materials (-1.4%), Energy (-3.0%)DJ30 -117.53 NASDAQ -26.72 NQ100 -0.7% R2K -1.4% SP400 -1.% SP500 -10.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 638/1.82 bln/1989 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 756/946 mln/2225

3:30 pm : Commodities finished lower across the board today, led lower by a 3.5% sell off in grains. July wheat ended lower by 4.8% to $7.92 per bushel in profit taking from the grain's recent run to above $8.

May crude oil shed 3.3% to settle at $106.25 per barrel, extending its sell off to a second consecutive session. Crude oil has now shed over $6.50 (or 5.8%) from yesterday morning's ~2.5 yr highs at $113.46. Further headline risk shook out speculative money that recently pushed crude to those ~2.5 yr highs. It was an uneventful session for May natural gas, which finish near unchanged at $4.10 per MMBtu.

The sell-off in crude oil weighed on the precious metals, with June gold dropping 0.9% to $1453.60 per ounce and May silver shedding 1.4% to close at $40.06 per ounce. Neither metal was able to retrace is mid-morning sell off. DJ30 -125.78 NASDAQ -31.08 SP500 -11.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 714/1.4 bln/1890 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 774/656.3 mln/2201

3:00 pm : The broad market has slipped off of its afternoon high, but it still remains comfortably above session lows.

Participation has picked up amid today's action. It is still too early to tell whether or not share volume on the Big Board will break 1 billion, though.

Earnings announcements will likely act as a catalyst for trade in coming weeks. Tomorrow morning brings the latest from JPMorgan Chase (JPM 46.92, +0.06), which is widely expected to report earnings of $1.16 per share. DJ30 -106.11 NASDAQ -26.68 SP500 -9.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 712/1.31 bln/1869 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 796/606 mln/2155

2:30 pm : Although the major equity averages are still down markedly for the day, stocks have spent the past few hours gradually paring their losses. The effort has stocks sitting at afternoon highs.

Financials have extended their rally into higher ground. The sector now sports a 0.2% gain.

Still, consumer staples stocks represent this session's top performing sector as they sport a 0.4% gain. This is the second straight session that consumer staples have outperformed. Colgate-Palmolive (CL 83.00, +1.39) and Procter & Gamble (PG 62.89, +0.70) are leaders in their space.DJ30 -91.54 NASDAQ -21.73 SP500 -7.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 735/1.22 bln/1859 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 808/559 mln/2122

2:00 pm : The financial sector is making a strong push back toward the flat line after it had been down about 1% at its session low. The sector is now down less than 0.1%.

Large-cap bank stocks have been the biggest drivers of the financial sector's move. Bank of America (BAC 13.54, +0.05), Wells Fargo (WFC 31.58, +0.18), and US Bancorp (USB 26.54, +0.45) are primary leaders in the space.

Energy stocks have worked their way off of session lows, but the sector continue to trade with a loss of almost 3%. DJ30 -103.12 NASDAQ -22.57 SP500 -8.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 647/1.11 bln/1925 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 686/506 mln/2232

1:30 pm : Stocks have made a modest move to fractionally improved afternoon highs. Overall losses remain steep, though.

Treasuries continue to sport strong gains. Results from the auction of 3-year Notes were highlighted by a bid-to-cover of 3.25, dollar demand of $104.0 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 33.7%. For comparison, the prior auction featured a bid-to-cover of 3.22, dollar demand of $103.0 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 34.4%. An average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 3.07, dollar demand of $98.2 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 33.7%. DJ30 -111.59 NASDAQ -24.53 SP500 -10.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 624/1.02 bln/1938 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 656/470 mln/2248

1:00 pm : The stock market is on pace for its worst performance in almost a month following losses abroad, a negative reaction to the latest quarterly resuls from Alcoa, and a drop in energy stocks amid lower oil prices.

Overseas averages moved lower in a broad-based selling effort that followed news that Japan has increased its nuclear crisis rating to the maximum level of 7. The Nikkei dropped 1.7% and the Hang Seng shed 1.3%, but the Shanghai Composite closed only fractionally lower. Europe's major bourses all booked losses in excess of 1%.

Dow component Alcoa (AA 16.55, -1.22) announced its fourth consecutive upside earings surprise, but that has been overshadowed by a relatively light revenue figure. A negative bias in the broader market has exacerbated weakness in the stock, which is down more than 6% for its worst single-session slide in more than a year.

Still, energy stocks are collectively this session's worst performers. The sector's 3% slump comes as oil prices drop 3.6% to just below $106 per barrel. Analysts at Goldman Sachs further stoked selling interest against oil with the prediction that its price will see a substantial pullback in prices in coming months.

In contrast to action seen in recent weeks, the stock market's drop this morning was met with little support. Although the slide has since steadied, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite remain below their 50-day moving averages, which were violated this morning.

The greenback isn't garnering much support amid the stock market's slide, but Treasuries have rallied sharply so that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is back below 3.50% after it had flirted with 3.60% in recent sessions. DJ30 -121.70 NASDAQ -26.50 SP500 -11.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 649/946 mln/1902 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 656/430 mln/2234

12:30 pm : Treasuries are trading near session highs ahead of the latest round of auction results. Demand for a series of 3-year Notes will be posted at the top of the hour.

Meanwhile, stocks are drifting sideways just above session lows after they dropped to losses of little more than 1% in the first 90 minutes of trade. DJ30 -122.30 NASDAQ -28.48 SP500 -12.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 592/857 mln/1934 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 596/394 mln/2289

12:00 pm : The Dollar Index is still in the red, but it has pared its loss so that it is at a session high with a loss of just 0.1%. Most of the greenback's weakness is due to strength in the yen and the euro. The yen is currently up 0.7% so that it trades at 83.82 yen per dollar. Meanwhile, the euro is just off of its 52-week high of $1.45.DJ30 -123.66 NASDAQ -29.95 SP500 -12.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 608/766 mln/1900 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 627/355 mln/2240

11:30 am : Stocks have steadied their descent, but remain near session lows. Downside volume continues to outpace advancing volume by more than 4-to-1 on the NYSE and more than 8-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

Treasuries continue to climb, though. In turn, the yield on the 10-year Note is now just below 3.50% after it had flirted with 3.60%, a one-month high, for the past few days. DJ30 -132.78 NASDAQ -30.98 SP500 -13.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 568/663 mln/1922 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 579/307 mln/2267

11:00 am : Stocks continue to descend deeper into negative territory. The slide has taken both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite below their 50-day moving averages to new two-week lows. The Dow is also at an April low, but it has yet to come in contact with its 50-day moving average.

Although weakness is widespread, participants continue to make the most concerted push against energy stocks, which are now down 3.3%. There isn't a single stock in the sector that has managed to put together any kind of a gain. DJ30 -143.38 NASDAQ -31.95 SP500 -14.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 545/530 mln/1877 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 587/245 mln/2229

10:30 am : The dollar index gained steam in recent trade, but still remains in negative territory. However, the move higher in the dollar hit select commodities, especially gold, silver and crude oil, which quickly sold off.

June gold dropped ~$15/oz to new session lows of $1445.00/oz, while May silver sold off to its own new session lows of $39.81. Both precious metals were already trading in negative territory prior to the sell-off. June gold has been in the red for the vast majority of today's session and is currently down 1% at $145330/oz. May silver is down 0.8% at $40.29/oz.

May crude oil sold off as well on the recent strength in the dollar index. WTI May crude oil fell to new session lows of $106.05/barrel and is currently 3.5% lower at $106.43/barrel.

May natural gas has just been chopping around the unchanged line in recent activity and is now 0.7% lower at $4.08/MMBtu.DJ30 -110.42 NASDAQ -24.73 SP500 -10.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 531/365.2 mln/1833 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 637/179.2 mln/2113

10:00 am : Stocks have extended their morning slide so that the Dow is now down 100 points.

Energy stocks continue to cast the heaviest weight on broad market trade. The sector is now down 2.5% as integrated oil and gas plays like Dow components Exxon Mobil (XOM 83.35, -1.81) and Chevron (CVX 104.77, -3.01) and service plays like Baker Hughes (BHI 66.89, -2.42) and Schlumberger (SLB 86.64, -2.16) succumb to sharp selling pressure.

Of the major sectors, health care is a top performer. The sector's 0.2% gain is underpinned by strength in health care facilities stocks. Tenet Healthcare Corp (THC 6.70, +0.26) is actually up 4%. DJ30 -102.25 NASDAQ -24.87 SP500 -9.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 656/164 mln/1582 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 786/98 mln/1854

09:45 am : Selling interest is broad in the early going, but energy stocks are in especially weak shape. The sector has already dropped 1.8%.

Energy's retreat comes on the heels of news reports that analysts at Goldman Sachs have called for a substantial pullback in oil prices in coming months. Oil prices were last quoted with a 2.2% loss at $107.40 per barrel.

Meanwhile, Treasuries are rallying. In fact, the benchmark 10-year Note has already made its strongest move in more than a week. That has its yield back near 3.50%. The action precedes results from an auction of 3-year Notes at 1:00 PM ET. DJ30 -64.25 NASDAQ -14.58 SP500 -6.89

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.50. Stock futures have managed to trim some of their losses, but they continue to point to a lower start to the session. The pessimistic tone to premarket trade comes amid sharp losses abroad, where participants have been a bit spooked by news that Japan has increased its nuclear crisis rating to the maximum level of 7. Corporate news flow has been slow, but Dow component Alcoa (AA) provided the first preview of what is in store for earnings season. The aluminum giant announced last night better-than-expected earnings, but its revenue figure was somewhat disappointing. A concerted push against the stock in premarket trade has the stock down more than 4% ahead of the open. That comes on top of the 2% already suffered by shares of AA during the prior session. Oil prices have also extended their pullback from the prior session -- yesterday oil prices settled 2.5% lower; they are down another 0.4% to $109.50 per barrel this morning.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.50. Europe's major bourses are under stiff pressure at the moment. Specifically, Germany's DAX is down 1.3%. The country's ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey fell to 7.6 in April from 14.1 in March, but its Current Situation Survey for April improved to 87.1 from 85.4 in the prior month. France's CAC has fallen to a 1.4% loss amid widespread weakness that has spared only a handful of index components -- Sanofi-Aventis (SNY), GDF Suez, Essilor International, PPR SA, and Unibail-Rodamco. While every other issue in the 40-member index is in the red, Schneider Electric is under the sharpest pressure as it contends with a loss of more than 3%. According to data, France's latest current deficit totaled 5.2 billion euros, which is an increase from the 4.1 billion euros deficit recorded in the prior month. Britain's FTSE is presently off by 1.0%. Natural resource plays like oil giant BP Plc (BP) and mining giant BHP Billiton (BHP) are a couple of the heaviest drags on trade. United Kingdom CPI for March increased 0.3% in March, down from a 0.7% increase in February.

Japan's Nikkei dove 1.7% as nearly 90% of its components logged losses in the latest round of trade. Tokyo Electric Power tumbled almost 10% after it had rallied for a 20% gain in the prior session. Officials in Japan recently raised the nuclear crisis level to a maximum level of 7 after data indicated that more radiation had leaked from damaged nuclear facilities than had been thought initially. Hong Kong's Hang Seng suffered a 1.3% loss, but China's Shanghai Composite closed only fractionally lower.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.10. The trade deficit for February totaled $45.8 billion, which is in stride with the $45.7 billion deficit that had been broadly expected. The deficit for the prior month totaled $47.0 billion. Import and export prices for March were also just released. Excluding agricultural products, export prices for March increased by 1.3%. Excluding oil, import prices for March increased by 0.6%. Shortly before the data was posted the dollar set a fresh session low. It now trades with a 0.5% loss against the euro at $1.448. Meanwhile, stock futures continue to trail fair value, but they are off of morning lows.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.80. Even though Dow component Alcoa (AA) posted last night its fourth consecutive upside earnings surprise, the stock has run into selling pressure as premarket participants react to the firm's relatively light revenue figure. The inclination to pressure stocks has taken down broad market stock futures, too. Part of the negative tone is due to general weakness abroad -- most notably a 1.7% drop by Japan's Nikkei. Officials in Japan recently raised the nuclear crisis level to a maximum level of 7 from 5 after data indicated that more radiation had leaked from damaged nuclear facilities than had been thought initially. Europe's major bourses are also down with deep losses amid news that Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey fell sharply from the prior month. As for domestic data, today's calendar features the international trade balance at 8:30 AM ET and the Treasury Budget at 2:00 PM ET. Resuming another week of Treasury auctions, results for a series of 3-year Notes are due at 1:00 PM ET.

06:41 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -7.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.30.

06:41 am : Nikkei...9555.26...-164.40...-1.70%. Hang Seng...23976.37...-326.70...-1.30%.

06:41 am : FTSE...6005.03...-48.40...-0.80%. DAX...7138.42...-66.40...-0.90%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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