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 Post subject: April 8th Friday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +2.60
PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2011 4:19 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Quote:
I missed the key first hour of trading due to being stuck in traffic. The make matters worst...I had to call it quits early in the afternoon trading session due to personal reasons. Simply, I missed the best price action for trade opportunities and was only trading in price action I normally don't trade in. If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: +2.60 points or $260.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=88&t=807.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=137&t=1015

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks End Week Mostly Lower As Oil Prices Surge
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer
April 8, 2011: 4:58 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks fell on Friday as oil and gold prices spiked and investors awaited news about the pending government shutdown.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 29 points, or 0.2%, to 12,380. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 5.4 points, or 0.4%, to 1,328, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost 16 points, or 0.6%, to 2,780.

Both the S&P and the Nasdaq ended the week down slightly more than 0.3%, snapping a two-week winning streak, while the Dow managed to squeak out a gain.

Commodities and materials stocks were among the strongest performers, with shares of Occidental Petroleum (OXY, Fortune 500) and Murphy Oil (MUR, Fortune 500) up more than 5% each as oil rallied.

Oil prices surged over $113 a barrel Friday, a day after Japan was hit with another earthquake, rising more than 4% this week. At the same time, the price of unleaded gasoline rose 1.4 cents overnight to a nationwide average of $3.74, according to motorist group AAA.
Track commodities

Fund managers are becoming increasingly worried about the recent run-up in the price of oil, particularly as the U.S. economic recovery remains delicate at best.

"Oil prices were making me nervous a month ago, but now oil has become a critical issue," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer with Harris Private Bank.

Precious metals also rallied, with gold going above $1,473 an ounce. Silver prices rose to more than $40 an ounce.

Wall Street is also bracing for the start of first-quarter earnings with results from Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) on Monday.

"I can't remember entering an earnings season, where investors had such divergent views on the state of Corporate America," Ablin said. "Some say corporate earnings remain strong, while others are worried that commodities are going to start pressuring profit margins."

U.S. stocks fell slightly Thursday, recovering the bulk of an earlier sell-off that was sparked by a second Japanese earthquake.

* Budget fight just gets dumber

Government shutdown The federal government faces a shutdown unless Congress and the White House reach agreement on a budget for the remainder of fiscal 2011 by midnight ET.

Negotiators worked Friday on a spending plan for the rest of the current fiscal year, after a fourth White House meeting in 48 hours between President Obama and congressional leaders failed to reach an agreement.

"Markets believe that cooler heads will prevail and that people in Washington aren't dumb enough to cut their heads off, which means that markets haven't met too many people in Washington," said David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's.

The Securities and Exchange Commission said Thursday that in the event of a shutdown, the SEC will function with "an extremely limited number of staff," and only basic investor services will be available.

The SEC will continue to accept securities filings, but available services related to filings will be limited. The SEC also said it will continue to investigate fraud and securities violations, but may only be able to respond to a limited number of incidents.
0:00 /1:05Expedia takes off

Companies: Shares of Expedia (EXPE) surged more than 13% after the travel site operator announced late Thursday that it planned to split itself into two companies. One will be for TripAdvisor and another for its other Expedia businesses, which include Hotels.com and Hotwire.

Seagate Technology (STX) shares jumped nearly 8% after the company said late Thursday it will begin paying a dividend for the first time.

Economy: The Commerce Department said wholesale inventories rose 1% in February, in line with economists' expectations.

World markets: European stocks rose modestly as investors await word of a possible bailout package for Portugal. Britain's FTSE 100 added 0.8%, the DAX in Germany rose 0.5% and France's CAC-40 gained 0.8%.

Asian markets ended higher, as stocks rallied from Japan's 7.1-magnitude earthquake Thursday. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.7%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong ticked up 0.5% and Japan's Nikkei rallied 1.9%.

Currencies: The dollar fell against the euro and the British pound, but gained versus the Japanese yen.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 3.59% from 3.55% late Thursday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : The stock market spent most of the session stuck near the neutral line, but some late selling led to a lower finish. The emergence of support in the final hour helped moderate the loss, though.

There weren't many catalysts for trade this morning, so early participants took their cues from overseas markets. Although that helped the major averages open in higher ground, there wasn't much conviction behind the move. In turn, stocks returned to the flat line to trade listlessly, just as they had in previous sessions.

The tepid tone among market participants is partly owed to a cautious posture ahead of earnings season, which gets its unofficial start on Monday evening, when Dow component Alcoa (AA 17.92, -0.20) reports its latest quarterly results. Shares of AA actually set a 52-week high this morning, but retreated as the session progressed.

The stock market's recent struggle to break free from range bound trade also comes as the S&P 500 faces resistance in the 1340 zone, which has held all week. Such formidable resistance comes after the stock market climbed almost 7% from March lows into the start of April.

Stocks appeared as if they were about to break down in late afternoon trade. The selling effort was broad and actually took all three of the major equity averages to weekly lows, but in a recurring theme buyers stepped back in to provide support. That helped stocks limit their losses.

Outside of equities, commodities continued to climb at a torrid clip. Specifically, gold gained 1.0% to settle pit trade at $1474.40 per ounce. It set a new record high of 1476.20 per ounce. Silver spiked an even more impressive 2.7%, which took the precious metal to $40.62 per ounce. Prior to that, it set a 30-year high of $40.65 per ounce. Meanwhile, oil prices were pushed as high as $112.88 per barrel, which is a new two-year high, before they settled at $112.79 per barrel with a 2.3% gain.

Strength among commodities was augmented by the dollar's ongoing doldrums. It fell to a new 52-week low against the euro, which was quoted with a 1.2% loss at $1.447 at the close of trade.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+0.4%), Telecom (+0.3%), Health Care (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Utilities (-0.2%), Consumer Staples (-0.3%), Consumer Staples (-0.3%), Materials (-0.6%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.6%), Tech (-0.6%), Financials (-0.9%)DJ30 -29.44 NASDAQ -15.72 NQ100 -0.5% R2K -1.0% SP400 -0.7% SP500 -5.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 797/1.65 bln/1801 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 987/821 mln/1945

3:30 pm : Commodities closed out a strong week on a high note. The effort saw oil prices set a new two-year high, gold prices ascended to a record level, and silver prices set a 30-year best.

Specifically, gold gained 1.0% to settle pit trade at $1474.40 per ounce. It had been as high as 1476.20 per ounce, which marked its best level ever. Silver was up an even more impressive 2.7% to $40.62 per ounce, just shy of the 30-year high that it set at $40.65 per ounce earlier in the session.

Oil prices propelled to $112.79 per barrel, which made for a 2.3% gain. Prior to that, oil prices set a new two-year high of $112.88 per barrel.

Natural gas failed to follow the other commodities to higher ground. Rather, natural gas prices fell 0.4% to $4.04 per MMBtu. DJ30 -46.85 NASDAQ -19.67 SP500 -6.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 721/1.32 bln/1869 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 837/550 mln/2092

3:00 pm : Stocks have drifted deeper into negative territory. Although that has taken both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite to fresh session lows, the Dow has yet to confirm the move.

Selling interest has broadened in the past hour of trade. Initially only a few sectors were showing losses, but now all 10 major sectors are in the red. Financials are in the worst shape as they slide to a 1.1% loss. Energy has managed to limit its loss to just 0.1%.DJ30 -82.04 NASDAQ -23.74 SP500 -9.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 835/1.14 bln/1733 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 949/480 mln/1964

2:30 pm : The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have both eased down to session lows. Still, overall losses are only modest.

Without any market moving headlines or other catalysts to invoke action among traders, participation remains unimpressive. Low-share volume has been a consistent theme in recent weeks. DJ30 -33.22 NASDAQ -11.59 SP500 -4.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 959/1.02 bln/1605 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1105/435 mln/1808

2:00 pm : Listless trade continues to keep the stock market clinging closely to the neutral line. Such has also been the case for most of the past several sessions. That is why the S&P 500 is on pace to conclude the week in line with where it started.

Although action among stocks remains boring, Treasuries continue to endure selling pressure, which lifted the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note towards 3.60% this morning. That made for a new one-month high.

The dollar's doldrums against the euro also continue, despite a recent request from Portugal for foreign financial aid following a series of sovereign debt downgrades. The euro hit a 15-month high this morning; it was last quoted with a 1.0% gain at $1.443.

The dollar's drop has helped bolster commodities, which continue to climb. As such, the GS Commodity Index is up 1.9%. DJ30 -15.25 NASDAQ -5.68 SP500 -1.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 966/970 mln/1563 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1141/400 mln/1736

1:30 pm : The overall market remains mired at the flat line. Two of its most influential sectors are on exact opposite sides of todays action.

Financials, frequently a leader for the overall market, are currently down 0.6%. The sector has lagged all session as bank stocks drift lower.

In contrast, energy stocks are up 0.5%. Drillers like Nabors (NBR 31.80, +1.30) and Helmerich & Payne (HP 69.55, +2.05) have helped prop up the sector. The pair's strength comes amid an analyst upgrade. DJ30 -18.43 NASDAQ -5.03 SP500 -1.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 971/895 mln/1566 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1157/374 mln/1713

1:05 pm : Listless trade continues keep the stock market flat ahead of earnings season. The lack of action today is consistent with that of the past few sessions.

An absence of major economic releases and corporate headlines of consequence left morning traders to take their cues from overseas markets, which put together strong gains in their final session of the week. However, broad market buying interest quickly waned.

Although stocks continue to struggle to sustain gains, sellers haven't been engaged in any kind of concerted effort. That has kept stocks confined to a narrow trading range near the neutral line.

The market's insipidity comes after stocks spent the final two weeks of March climbing almost 7% from monthly lows, often resilient in the face of negative headlines. The S&P 500 has spent the past week butting up against resistance along the 1340 line ahead of earnings season, which gets its unofficial start when Dow component Alcoa (AA 18.01, -0.11) posts its latest quarterly report Monday evening.

Although overall action remains mundane, there have been a few movers worth mention. Expedia (EXPE 25.05, +2.65) has been an especially strong performer following the firm's decision to split into two separate entities. Its near 12% surge makes for the strongest move of any S&P 500 member.

Stocks may be struggling to find direction, but commodities continue to climb at an impressive clip. An insatiable appetite for natural resources took oil prices to a new two-year high above $112 per barrel while gold prices hit a new record high above $1470 per ounce and silver set a 30-year high above $40 per ounce.DJ30 -19.86 NASDAQ -6.02 SP500 -1.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1031/825 mln/1485 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1210/345 mln/1650

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to hug the neutral line as they approach the midpoint of today's trade. The sideways crawl has left stocks on track for a flat week -- prior to the open the S&P 500 had eked out a weekly gain of less than 0.1%. Lackluster action this week is largely owed to a lack of leadership. Such is also the case this session.DJ30 -10.67 NASDAQ -3.75 SP500 -0.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1004/748 mln/1500 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1219/315 mln/1610

12:00 pm : BJ's Wholesale (BJ 50.21, +0.83) reported yesterday that same-store sales for March increased by more than 5%, which is greater than what had been widely expected. Although it finished off of its session high, the stock was able to put together a solid gain yesterday. Today it has added to that advance with help from an analyst upgrade at Goldman Sachs.

In contrast, Costco (COST 76.92, -0.90) is under considerable pressure after analysts at Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock. Costco actually reported yesterday a stronger-than-expected 13% increase in same-store sales for March. That news helped the stock score a record high in the prior session.DJ30 -10.40 NASDAQ -2.70 SP500 -0.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1042/680 mln/1430 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1240/284 mln/1553

11:30 am : All three of the headline indices have drifted down to a slight loss. Underlying weakness is largely limited, though.

Shares of Expedia (EXPE 24.74, +2.34) continue to sport the best gains of any stock in the S&P 500. Their heady move follows news that the company will split into two separate entities. Although the stock's 10% surge this session puts shares at a one-month high, the stock is still 16% below its 52-week high.

Shares of Travelzoo (TZOO 76.00, +1.25) and Orbitz (OWW 3.47, +0.04) have both shared in the strength resulting from Expedia's announcement. DJ30 -20.89 NASDAQ -6.42 SP500 -1.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 957/588 mln/1463 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1136/245 mln/1641

11:00 am : The lackluster action of the past week precedes earnings season, which gets its unofficial start when Dow component Alcoa (AA 18.08, -0.04) gets things going with its latest quarterly report. Wall Street has forecast earnings of $0.27 per share for the quarter. Alcoa has either met or exceeded the consensus estimate in each of the past four quarters.

Anticipation ahead of the aluminum giant's report helped its shares hit a new two-year high earlier this morning. The stock has since pulled back so that it actually lags the broad market by a narrow margin. DJ30 -16.16 NASDAQ -2.16 SP500 -0.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1147/464 mln/1243 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1394/195 mln/1334

10:35 am : Weakness in the dollar index this morning is providing price support in most commodities. Crude, gold and silver have been trading higher all session.

May crude oil trended higher this morning until hitting current session highs of $111.90/barrel. It has since pulled back and is now at $111.34/barrel, up 0.9%

Mauy natural gas has been volatile this morning. Just before the open of pit trading, it sold off, but quickly erased those losses and is now back just above the unchanged line.

Precious metals have been steadily higher in today's session. June gold is currently up 0.8% at $1470.70/ounce, while May silver is 1.7% higher at $40.22/ounce.

In the ag space, grains should see more than average volatility today after the USDA released its April supply/demand report this morning. Global corn inventory levels declined, but U.S. levels remained unchanged, which were below street expectations. Corn, wheat and soybeans all spiked higher at the open of pit trade. Corn and wheat moved into positive territory, but pulled back slightly. Soybeans spike and remains higher, near session highs. May corn is -4.5 cents at $7.545, May wheat is -3.25 centrs at $7.70 and May soybeans are +10 cents aty $13.735.DJ30 -3.89 NASDAQ -2.74 SP500 -0.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1352/325.7 mln/1005 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1598/146.7 mln/1090

10:00 am : The major equity averages are sitting just above the neutral line after buying ahead of the open gave stocks a positive start. The slip back towards the flat line is consistent with the action seen earlier this week.

Wholesale inventories for February were just released. They increased by 1.0%, which is spot on with what economists polled by Briefing.com had predicted. Inventories for the prior month had increased by a very similar 1.1%.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+0.7%), Materials (+0.6%), Health Care (+0.5%), Utilities (+0.1%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.1%)
Unchanged: Industrials, Telecom, Consumer Staples
Declining Sectors: Tech (-0.1%), Financials (-0.1%)DJ30 +10.26 NASDAQ +2.40 SP500 +2.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1419/133 mln/774 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1882/81 mln/721

09:45 am : Support for stocks has moderated in the first few minutes of trade, causing the major equity averages to give back some of their opening gains. The early pullback has impacted almost every major sector, except health care and energy. They are up 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively.

Treasuries are still under pressure. As a result of renewed selling interest, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note set a new one-month high near 3.60% this morning. DJ30 +22.78 NASDAQ +8.12 SP500 +3.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1342/39 mln/729 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1813/36 mln/344

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.40. Stock futures point to a positive start to the final session of the week. The key question, though, is whether stocks can sustain the bid after finishing flat for the past several sessions -- the S&P 500 is up less than 0.1% week to date. Should stocks sustain their premarket gains, it could be telling of underlying sentiment, especially in the absence of meaningful economic data and corporate headlines of major consequence. Despite the lackluster action surrounding stocks, commodities continue to climb. As such, the CRB Commodity Index is up 1.3% for the week. Underpinning that move is a 2.7% rise in oil prices, which actually set a new two-year high of nearly $112 per barrel overnight. Precious metals have also put on a show. So far this week there has been a 2.6% increase in gold prices, which set a new record high overnight of $1474.50 per ounce. Silver prices set a 30-year high of about $40.31 per ounce overnight and are up 4.5% for the week.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.70. Commodities continue to benefit from strong buying interest. As a result, crude oil prices are up 1.1% to $111.52 per barrel in early pit trade. The energy component actually extended its two-year high to almost $112 per barrel in overnight trade. Gold prices pushed their record highs to $1474.50 per ounce. The yellow metal was last quoted with a 0.8% gain at $1470.80 per ounce. Silver is up an even more impressive 1.7% to $40.22 per ounce. It set a new 30-year high of about $40.31 per ounce overnight.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.70. Europe's major bourses are all up with impressive gains. That has helped take the EuroStoxx 50 advace to a 0.5% gain, although it is still shy of its prior session high. Germany's DAX is up 0.6%. The country's trade balance for February came in at 12.1 billion euros, which is greater than the 10.1 billion euros that was recorded for January. The increase was helped by a 2.7% increase in exports after they had fallen 1.0% in January. Imports were up 3.7% in February after a 2.3% increase in January. France's CAC has climbed to a 0.9% gain on the back of broad-based buying, which has put all 40 of the CAC's components in positive territory. The Bank of France cut its first quarter growth forecast to a 0.7% increase from a 0.8% increase. The Business Sentiment reading for March from the Bank of France came in at 110, unchanged from the prior month. Busines Britain's FTSE is currently up 1.0%. The United Kindom Producer Price Index Output NSA for March increased by 0.9% after a 0.5% increase in February. Europe's primary currency, the euro, continues to climb. Its latest advance has taken it to a 15-month high against the greenback; it was last quoted with a 0.8% gain at $1.44.

Although the dollar is down against the euro, it is up 0.4% against the yen. A weaker yen likely helped traders in Japan take in stride news of another earthquake in the country. Japan's Nikkei actually surged 1.9%. Embattled Tokyo Electric Power came rallying back from recent beatdowns to score a 24% gain. Fast Retailing also outperformed. Its 7% spike is owed to a strong forecast. Toyota Motor (TM) announced that it has decided to produce vehicles at all of its facilities in Japan from April 18 to April 27, but that production volume is planned to be about half of normal volume. Hong Kong's Hang Seng put together a 0.5% gain. China's Shanghai Composite closed 0.7% higher. China reported that its first quarter business climate measurement came in at 133.8, which is down from the 138.0 that had been scored in the prior quarter.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.90. Stocks endured relatively volatile trade yesterday, but they still finished the session flat. Buying interest has picked up this morning, though. The positive tone has been helped along by strong performances among overseas markets. Confirmation that damages from the latest earthquake to hit Japan aren't as severe as that of last month's massive quake have also encouraged traders who had initially treated reports with caution. There isn't any consequential data on tap for today and corporate news has been limited to a handful of headlines. Among the more notable news stories, Expedia (EXPE) announced that it will split into two companies. That has sent its shares up about 15% in premarket trade. Meanwhile, shares of Hercules Offshore (HERO) are down about 11% ahead of the open in response to reports that the company received a subpoena from the Securities Exchange Commission.

06:49 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.70.

06:49 am : Nikkei...9768.08...+177.20...+1.90%. Hang Seng...24396.07...+114.30...+0.50%.

06:49 am : FTSE...6054.45...+47.10...+0.80%. DAX...7218.50...+39.70...+0.60%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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